PRESENTED BY: PRESTON REINE, SENIOR ANALYST IHS MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY

Similar documents
Industrial LV Motors & Drives: A Global Market Update

Current and Future World Markets for Motors and Motor Controls

Automation Industry Market Report

Current and Future World Markets for Motors and Motor Controls

WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019

ECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISK. Solution Overview for Manufacturing Companies

Economic and Market Outlook. EU Automobile Industry

Insurance Market Outlook

Global payments trends: Challenges amid rebounding revenues

HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector

Chasing growth in a constrained environment

Global Deployment of IT Solutions that Contribute to Social Progress

Overview. Main Findings

The Global Economic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks

Stabilus at a glance. April 2014

Industrial Power Control

I. World trade developments

SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION FACTBOOK

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016

Innovative Technology Solutions for Sustainability ABENGOA. Industrial Production Market Outlook. Analyst & Investor Day. Javier Salgado Javier Molina

IHS Technology. IHS Technology Business Intelligence Enabling market leadership through research, analysis and strategy

The Smart Meter Revolution_

II. Merchandise trade

Aluminium Supply & Demand Dynamics. Eoin Dinsmore Principal Consultant, CRU The AFSA International Aluminium Conference, Cape Town, March 2016

Financial Information

Overview. Main Findings

World Steel Outlook Adam Szewczyk / Manager, Economics and Statistics. Х Metal Expert s Conference, April 20-21, 2015, Kiev, Ukraine

Progress Exchange 2013

Economic and Market Report. EU Automotive Industry Quarter

Executive Summary: Distributed Solar Energy Generation

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012

Investing in the Currency of the Future: Big Data for the Manufacturing Domain

GET to 8 Daimler Trucks Path to Profitable Growth

Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013

The World Market for Smart Electricity Meters Edition

Medical Equipment Rental and Leasing - Global Strategic Business Report

INFORMATION GENERATION

Power Electronics Business Strategies May 29, 2015 Fuji Electric Co., Ltd. Power Electronics Business Group

U.S. Trade Overview, 2013

GLOBAL DATA CENTER SPACE 2013

Disaster Recovery and Online Backup as a Service

International Business Strategy

The big pay turnaround: Eurozone recovering, emerging markets falter in 2015

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015

WORLD ROBOTICS 2006 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario

Outlook for European Real Estate in Mark Charlton, Head of Research & Forecasting

WHAT YOU DON T KNOW ABOUT MADE IN ITALY

Net income up 41% as ABB accelerates top line growth

NRF 2015 Global Ecommerce: It s a Small World After All

Importance of China for Mercedes-Benz Passenger Cars

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE

GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011

e 2015f. Real GDP Growth (%)

ABB Q3: Solid performance across the business

Business Confidence Survey

Martin Hemmert. Korea University Business School

Agricultural Reinsurance in Latin America Actual Situation & Outlook. 4 th Reinsurance Congress Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) April 2015

Market Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief

Achieving Functional Safety with Global Resources and Market Reach

Automotive Suppliers Survey

TechVision A SYSTEMATIC INNOVATION SERENDIPITY ENGINE Convergence Begets Innovation Begets Growth

Lockton Mexico An Overview

Excerpt Sudan Fixed Telecommunications: Low Penetration Rates Get a Boost from Broadband Internet and VoIP Services

Outsourcing: driving efficiency. and growth. Grant Thornton International Business Report 2014

Market comparison: sales and distribution of travel insurance and the growth of bancassurance

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

Automotive Working Group Meeting St-Petersburg, Russia, September 2012

Making Leaders Successful Every Day

Canada s Energy Sector in a Changing Global Market. Kristi Varangu Director, International Energy Division March 10, 2014

Global Sector. How does Travel & Tourism compare to other sectors? GDP. Global Direct GDP. Global GDP Impact by Industry

Economic and Market Report. EU Automotive Industry Quarter

THE GROWING GLOBAL MARKET OF LNG

GE Grid Solutions. Providing solutions that keep the world energized Press Conference Call Presentation November 12, Imagination at work.

Wisconsin's Exports A Special Report on Wisconsin's Economy

Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

P R E S S R E L E A S E K E N D R I O N N. V. 7 M A Y

II. Merchandise trade

HR TRENDS AND INSIGHTS: FALLING OIL PRICES AND DECREASED INDUSTRY SPENDING - EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS

Emerging Upstarts and Market Transitions in the Global Digital Oilfield Data Management Market Strategic Assessment of Top 12 Companies to Watch

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Financial Services CNH Industrial Capital. Oddone Incisa

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?

TAZEEM PASHA MANAGER, BUSINESS RETENTION AND EXPANSION SELECTUSA U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Transcription:

CWIEME BERLIN 2016 MOTOR MARKET UPDATE PRESENTED BY: PRESTON REINE, SENIOR ANALYST IHS MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. www.coilwindingexpo.com/berlin

IHS Manufacturing Technology Presentation A g e n d a Economic update Motor market statistics Key trends and challenges for suppliers Conclusion

DISCOVERING MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIAL AREAS Capital Equipment & Machinery Discrete & Process Automation Electric Motor Systems Comprised of three dedicated research areas and over 30 analysts covering electrical, electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical automation equipment types; as well as finished machinery and equipment markets. By leveraging the breadth of IHS and its experts, IHS s insight into manufacturing technology is unparalleled in key vertical markets, including automotive, power generation, oil & gas, maritime, amongst others. INFORMATION EXPERTISE ANALYTICS Industrial analysts across 8 locations worldwide Strategic Planners to Procurement Personnel 25+ years of industry coverage Team of 30+ dedicated analysts. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 3

Global economic outlook 4

Short term factors affecting the world economy Systematic factors Withdrawal of policy stimulus Over capacity after investment booms Sluggish export markets Increased risk aversion Structural factors Slower labor force growth Slower pace of globalization Falling commodity prices Lack of market reforms 5

World GDP growth will stay flat, despite 2015 projections, with 3.1% growth in 2017. Real GDP 5% Real GDP 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: IHS Real GDP 6

Emerging economies still struggling Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth - BRIC Countries 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: IHS India China Brazil Russia India committed to rural development rather than business incentives Key overcapacity concerns loom large in China; lower commodity prices will continue through 2017 Political issues in Russia and the Middle East are reverberating through the Eurozone. Manufacturing PMI fell to its 7-month low in March 2016, and export orders declined for the 31 st consecutive month. Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil are in substantial recessions. The worsening political crisis will extend the ongoing downturn in Brazil 7

China s investment-driven industrial expansion is winding down China Economic Figures 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: IHS Real GDP Industrial Production Machinery Production Challenges: Opportunities: Collapsing Commodity Demand Overcapacity Stock Market Correction More investment in robotics Automation penetration rate Factory capacity consolidation 8

Industrial automation equipment market update 9

IAE 2015 and 2016 forecast comparison $199.3B $41.0 billion Motors & Generators $31.4 billion Discrete Controllers $35.6 billion Rotary Products 2015 Equipment Revenue M 32.8% Motors & Motor Controls $24.4 billion Motor Controls $19.4 billion Process Control $30.1 billion Linear Products A 34.2% Automation Equipment $17.2 billion Switchgear P 33.0% Power Transmission Equipment 2016 Regional Sales Growth 2016 Market Drivers Americas 2.2% EMEA 1.2% Rest of Asia 4.3% Japan China -2.1% 3.1% Global GDP 2.7% Growth Machinery Production 0.1% Growth Capital Expenditure -0.1% Decline 44.0% IAE Sales into Discrete Manufacturing 41.0% IAE Sales into Process Manufacturing 10

CAGR 15-18 2018 2015 Industrial automation equipment market regional growth Americas $45.3 EMEA $60.8 Rest of Asia $22.3 (CAGR 15-18) 3.0% China $35.3 (CAGR 15-18) 2.9% Japan $15.9 (CAGR 15-18) 2.2% $ 45.3 billion $ 60.8 billion $ 73.6 billion Americas EMEA Asia Pacific $ 51.5 billion $ 67.7 billion $ 84.6 billion 3.3% 2.7% 3.5% World Market Revenue for IAE was $179.7 billion in 2015 11

Proportion of Total IAE Market (%) Key industry sector weight and performance in 2016 Industrial Automation Equipment Market by Industry 9% 8.4% 6.0% 8% 7.6% 4.0% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3.7% 4.9% 3.6% 6.0% 3.4% 4.4% 6.2% 6.8% 37.9% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Sector Growth 2% 1% 0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% % of 2015 IAE 2015 Growth 2016 Growth 12

Machinery production growth profiles Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates % Growth of machinery production measured in US $ CAGR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 13-20 US 9.4% 0.5% -1.8% 1.4% -0.7% 1.6% 3.7% 3.4% 1.6% Germany -4.7% 4.1% 1.6% -19.2% -0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% -1.7% China 5.7% 7.5% 6.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.0% Japan 1.4% -13.1% 1.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 1.4% Source: IHS; Industry Publications IHS 2016 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% US Germany China Japan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $ Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates % Growth of machinery production measured in US $ CAGR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 13-20 Americas 1.4% -2.4% -0.7% 0.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 1.2% Europe Asia 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9% Pacific 11.0% -5.1% 5.3% 0.5% -1.9% 1.9% 3.0% 6.4% 1.4% Source: IHS; Industry Publications IHS 2016 Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates % Growth of machinery production measured $ and CAGR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 13-20 Europe ( ) -1.8% 1.9% -2.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% Europe ($) 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9% Source: IHS; Industry Publications IHS 2016 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% 25% 0% -25% -50% Americas Europe Asia Pacific 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $ Europe ( ) Europe ($) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percentage growth rates of European machinery production. Comparison of $ against 13

Industrial motor market insights 14

Overview of industrial motor market 2015 forecast unit shipments World shipments by region (%) 178M Top-3 Leading Suppliers ABB Siemens Americas 28% EMEA 24% Asia 48% WEG Shipments CAGR (2015-2020) Americas 2.2% Asia 3.0% EMEA 1.1% 15

Global MEPS Timeline World - Legislative Timeline: 1997-2020 US: earliest for IE2 IE2: US & Canada IE1: China IE2: S. Korea, Φ1 IE2: S. Korea, Φ2 US: Earliest for IE3/NEMA IE2: Mexico IE2: Australia IE2: Brazil IE3/NEMA Premium : US Europe IE2: European Union, Φ1 1997 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 China: follower IE2/GB3: China IE2: Turkey European Union, Φ2 7.5kW - 375kW IE2+VFD or IE3 Japan 'Top Runner' IE3 or better *Lot #30 Proposal* European Union 0.75kW - 375kW Exclusively IE3 European Union, Φ3 0.75kW - 7.5kW IE2+VFD or IE3 IE3/NEMA Premium : Canada IE3/GB2: China 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2020 Source: IHS; IE4 Low-Voltage Motors - 2015 2015 IHS 16

Units (k) Unit shipment growth by efficiency class The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Efficiency Class - Unit Shipments 2014 to 2019 25,000 20,000 Brazil starts IE2 EU starts IE2 shift EU (Phase 2) and Japan start IE3 shift EU (Phase 3) and China start IE3 shift 15,000 China starts IE2 shift 10,000 US starts IE3/NEMA Prem ium shift 2015 and beyond are estimated 5,000 Canada starts IE3/NEMA Prem ium shift 0 2009 2010 201 1 2012 2013 2014 2015 201 6 2017 2018 2019 Source: IHS IE1 - Standard Efficiency IE2 - High Efficiency IE3 - Premium Efficiency 2015 IHS 17

Low Voltage Motors Suppliers in the World WORLD (major players) ABB (inc. Baldor) Siemens WEG Regal Beloit TECO E&M/TECO-Westinghouse Leroy Somer Toshiba Shandong Huali Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal Hyosung Corporation NIDEC (US Motors) Next-tier Competitors Toshiba Shandong Huali Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal Hyosung Corporation NIDEC (US Emerson) LEZ Ruselprom Gamak GE Industrial Tech Full Simo Cantoni Motor Fuji Electric Hengshui (OX) Crompton Greaves Tatung Corporation ATB Group (Wolong) VEM Group Luan JiangHuai Anhui Wannan

Low-voltage motors efficiency class allocaation EFFICIENCY CLASS TRANSITIONS (UNITS) Global Low Voltage Motors - Efficiency Class Transition: 2014 to 2019 IE4 1% DC 1% Others 7% IE4 2% DC <1% Others 7% IE3 14% IE1 44% IE3 29% IE1 21% IE2 34% IE2 41% 2014 Market Size (Units) 45.8 Million Average Annual Unit Growth 2.5% 2019 Market Size (Units) 51.6 Million IHS has found that efficiency transitions often take 3-5 years until full compliance is underway. As governments work together and learn from other regions, it is expected that this timeframe will be shortened over time. 19

Current allocation of motor efficiency by region

Revenues ($M) Growth (%) Major motor applications (low-voltage motors) The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3,000 2.0% 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 0-8.0% Source: IHS 2014 Revenues Growth 2015 Growth 2016 Pumps, fans and compressors account for more than 75% of worldwide low-voltage motor shipments annually. 21

Outlook for motors and motor-driven equipment SIGNS OF PROGRESS Rebound in the construction market Rapid urbanization Increased demand for comfort technology Municipalities beginning to build budgets for infrastructure development Bodes well for water/wastewater investments CAUSES FOR CONCERN Struggles with profitability Downward pricing pressure Slowdown in the project business Overcapacity concerns loom, especially in China Rentals vs new equipment Low-cost providers still prevalent Focus on systems efficiency Downward forecast in machinery production, GDP 22

Supplier response to economic headwinds Increased focus on aftermarket revenues New designs; surpass minimum efficiency requirements Solutions providers Customers don t want just a motor Are all IE3 motors the same? New manufacturing techniques 3-D printing could be the future Industry 4.0 23

Efficiency: more than just a number Full lifetime cost, accessibility and environmental concerns Product advancements; smart manufacturing; 3-D printing More than just input/output 4/10 manufacturers have no visibility into equipment status 30% spend up to 4 hours/day searching for equipment 50% of suppliers only realize a problem when it s too late 24

Conclusion Key Takeaway: Worldwide commitment for systems efficiency is best hope for growth in the motor market amid such difficult economic times Notable actions: With a shift towards efficiency and smart manufacturing, all industrial players need to be thinking about how to simplify things for their customers by providing a full holistic solution This means that motor suppliers are looking to offer more than just a motor, but services and extra components, as well, in order to fit in with the rapidly evolving Industry 4.0 25

Questions? Contact Information: Preston Reine, Senior Analyst IHS Manufacturing Technology Email: preston.reine@ihs.com Phone: +1 (512) 582 2059