Technical Assistance Consultant s Report Project Number: 44167-012 December 2013 Bangladesh: Main River Flood and Bank Erosion Risk Management Program (Financed by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction) Prepared by Northwest Hydraulic Consultants, Canada In association with Resource Planning and Management Consultants Ltd., Bangladesh For Bangladesh Water Development Board This consultant s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project s design.
Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh Bangladesh Water Development Board Project Preparatory Technical Assistance 8054 BAN Main River Flood and Bank Erosion Risk Management Program Final Report Volume I Main Report December 2013 In association with Resource Planning & Management Consultants Ltd.
Asian Development Bank Funded by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction Government of the People s Republic of Bangladesh Bangladesh Water Development Board Project Preparatory Technical Assistance 8054 BAN Main River Flood and Bank Erosion Risk Management Program Final Report Volume I Main Report December 2013
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program This volume is the main report of the final report, feasibility study, conducted under the Asian Development Bank s Project Preparatory Technical Assistance 8054 BAN. Cover page: Riverbank erosion and house shifting in the area of Enayetpur, Sirajganj District, December 2012 (Photo: Knut Oberhagemann) Page iv December 2013
Final Report REPORT STRUCTURE Main Report Attachment 1 Draft Design and Monitoring Framework Attachment 2 External Assistance to the Water Sector in Bangladesh Attachment 3 Community based Flood Risk Management Activities Attachment 4 Alternative Implementation Arrangements Attachment 5 Draft Summary Poverty Reduction and Social Strategy (SPRSS) Attachment 6 Draft Gender Action Plan Attachment 7 Draft Environmental Assessment and Review Framework Volume I Main Report Annex A Annex B Annex C Priority Sub reach Selection & Sub reach Descriptions Annex A1 Priority Sub reach Selection Annex A2 Sub reach Description Background Data Annex B1 National Water Resources Database Annex B2 Socio economic Data Annex B3 Surveys and Field Visits Institutional and Financial Assessment Volume II Background Information Annex D Annex E Annex F Annex G Annex H Hydrology and Flood Modelling River and Charland Morphology and River Engineering Design Issues Annex F1 Geotechnical Investigations Annex F2 Technical Designs Economic Feasibility Annex G1 Cost Estimates Annex G2 Economic Cost and Assessment Implementation and Procurement Planning Volume III Technical Designs and Economy & Drawings (A3 size volume) Annex I Annex J Annex K Social Gender Equity Strategy & Action Plan Environmental Impact Assessment Involuntary Resettlement Annex K1 Resettlement Framework Annex K2 Resettlement Plan Volume IV Social Development and Safeguards Page v
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program PPTA Reports Date September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 January 2013 March 2013 May 2013 June 2013 September 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 March 2014 Report Draft Inception Report Inception Report Draft Pre feasibility Report (final version renamed) Priority Subproject Selection and Background Data Report Draft Interim Report Interim Report Draft Final Report Final Report Working Copy for steering committee review Final Report, revised working copy Final Report, finalized Final Report, printed for BWDB approval with small edits Final Report Revision 8 printed after final review Milestones Date Milestone 14 August 2012 Contract signature 15 August 2012 Letter to proceed and start of work 14 November 2012 Inception Workshop 11 April 2013 Interim Workshop 10 June 2013 Workshop on draft Final Report 26 June 2013 ADB comments, part 1 13 July 2013 ADB comments, part 2 17 31 July 2013 Loan Fact Finding Mission 13 October 2013 Steering Committee Meeting 2 February 2014 BWDB approves final report 1 USD =... BDT 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 01/01/2008 01/01/2009 01/01/2010 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 01/01/2013 Exchange Rate applied: 1US$= 80 BDT (average 15 July 2012 15 July 2013 = 79.9 BDT/USD) Page vi December 2013
Final Report 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I The Feasibility Study This feasibility study under Project Preparatory Technical Assistance (PPTA) 8054 BAN, Main River Flood and Bank Erosion Risk Management Program, was conducted to formulate an investment program for addressing acute riverbank erosion and related flood issues along the main rivers of central Bangladesh from Bangabandhu Bridge (Jamuna Bridge) to Chandpur. The PPTA combines the elements of riverbank erosion risk management initially protecting critically eroding riverbanks and evolving over the course of nine years into the stabilization of river reaches in line with Governments policy. This approach acknowledges the strong dependency on benefits from effective flood mitigation measures, namely flood embankments, and to this end comprises a substantial component for rehabilitating and reconstructing existing embankments and closing strategic gaps. The suggested Flood and Riverbank Erosion Risk Management Investment Program (FRERMIP) will be implemented from July 2014 until June 2023. The total program cost is approximately US$ 375 million, of which ADB will finance up to US$ 250 million in three loan tranches under a multi tranche financing facility (MFF). The Government of the Netherlands may provide US$ 15 million as grant financing during the first tranche. The program includes structural measures, extensive nonstructural activities, and institutional strengthening. A total of 50 km of riverbank protection, 53 km of embankment rehabilitation, and 36 km of embankment reconstruction or new construction are planned to be implemented through the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). In addition, more than one million people living in flood risk areas along the main rivers are expected to be supported by a community based flood risk management program organized through the Department of Disaster Management (DDM). Institutional strengthening will largely focus on improving the knowledge base and planning tools for managing critical river reaches, particularly within the planned River Management Wing in BWDB. The suggested investment program commences during the first Tranche with three priority reaches (subprojects) along the lower Jamuna and upper Padma Rivers, and later adds downstream areas including at the confluence of Padma and Upper Meghna Rivers. The riverbank protection approach builds on and extends technical principles established under the successful Jamuna Meghna River Erosion Mitigation Project (JMREMP). Embankment designs follow best international practice providing an attached road and the opportunity to raise embankments later in response to climate change requirements within the typical construction width applied in Bangladesh. As such land acquisition and resettlement are minimized. Importantly, the 10 km long gap in the Brahmaputra Right Embankment (BRE) downstream of Enayetpur, which was caused by erosion triggered by the Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge construction in the late 1990s, will be closed. In addition to construction related activities 1, which comprise more than 78% of the program costs, comprehensive river stabilization studies will be conducted during the initial years. This will include piloting new approaches, to prepare for more systematic river stabilization during later phases. 1 Civil Works and Materials, Land Acquisition and Resettlement, Consulting Services for Implementation Page vii
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program The ADB conducted this PPTA with financing from the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction (JFPR). The study from August 2012 to October 2013 provides a feasibility assessment for three upstream priority sites (named JRB 1, JLB 2, and PLB 1) and addresses issues required for processing of ADB s Tranche 1 loan. It also includes information and data required for the Government s Detailed Project Proforma (DPP) and the draft tender documents for Tranche 1 works. The feasibility study builds on a broad range of latest available and historic data including socioeconomic data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, many stored in the National Water Resources Database operated by WARPO, systematic satellite imagery from 1973 until 2012, the latest infrastructure and digital elevation information as employed by CEGIS and IWM, a broad range of field data specifically collected for safeguards related surveys in the priority subproject areas in early 2013, and cost estimates based on 2013 market rates and BWDB s schedule of rates. The findings of the study team were presented in three national workshops in November 2012, April 2013 and June 2013. In addition, four concluding workshops were held at field level in June and early July 2013, as well as a number of public consultations related to social and environmental safeguards. The final report comprises this main report and eleven annexes. II Current Situation THE MAIN RIVERS A CAUSE FOR DISASTER The Brahmaputra/Jamuna River is known for its instability and as a harbinger of disaster. The instability, over time, has translated downstream into the Padma and Lower Meghna Rivers. Especially the period between the late sixties and 2000 was characterized by substantial annual riverbank erosion when the sediment wave triggered by the Great Assam Earthquake in 1950 reached Bangladesh. During that period Bangladesh lost more than 5,000 ha of floodplain land annually along the Brahmaputra/Jamuna and Padma Rivers as opposed to little above 3,000 ha since 2000 (Figure 0 1). In total, approximately 2,000 km² of land has eroded along the Brahmaputra/ Jamuna and Padma Rivers over the last 40 years. Figure 0 1 CEGIS) Annual erosion along Jamuna, Ganges, and Padma (period averaged) (Source: Page viii December 2013
Final Report Bangladesh covers the downstream eight percent of the Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna River basin and consists mostly of flat deltaic land. As such most of the country is prone to river flooding caused by annual monsoon rainfalls which vary in severity from year to year. Living along the main rivers is subject to further recurrent disaster from unpredictable local bursts of riverbank erosion. Apart from causing direct losses of land, riverbank erosion exacerbates flooding when embankments erode 2. Such riverbank erosion has significantly reduced the reliability of existing flood embankments while delaying the construction of systematic embankment lines elsewhere. Along the Jamuna River only the right bank is consistently embanked. Along the Padma only the left bank has a partly continuous embankment line, supported by a more erosion resistant bankline upstream of Mawa. The right bank is largely unprotected. Over time disaster incidents and damages have grown with a growing population. While 20% of the country is flooded regularly, the population of Bangladesh has doubled since the mid 1970s (Figure 0 2). The increasing population density exposes more and more people to the flood risk. With growing population and increasing economic activities, the cost of disaster response and recovery are higher than the cost of proactive prevention through systematic structural interventions 3. The erosion loss of the fertile floodplains correlates with an increase in char areas. From 1973 to 2001 the total char area (vegetated and sand bars) in the lower Jamuna increased from 424 km² to 710 km² (67%), while the total river area increased from 686 km² to 999 km² (45%). The dry season channel area remained roughly the same, 262 km² in 1973 versus 289 km² in 2001. This means that densely populated fertile flood plain land was replaced by less fertile charland. The recent trend of reduced widening and consolidation of the Jamuna River provides the opportunity to recover some of the floodplain land lost over the last 40 years through the stabilization of attached chars. Population [million] 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Jamuna & Padma erosion % of Flooded Area population 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Area eroded [km²], Area flooded [%] 0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 0 Figure 0 2 Population growth compared with flooded and eroded areas (Source: PPTA team based on data from NWRD) 2 Embankments along the main rivers are usually not overtopped but breach from erosion 3 While the annual budget for the disaster management sector amounts to around BDT 50 billion annually, largely spent for relief and recovery, the BWDB has an annual budget of around BDT 15 billion mostly allocated to counter riverbank erosion and flooding along rivers and the coast. Page ix
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program 120,000 Area [ha] 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 total sand+land 2/3rd increase in charland and 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure 0 3 Growth of charland (vegetated and sand bars) and total river area (source: PPTA team based on data from CEGIS) FEEDING A GROWING POPULATION Rice production, the staple food of Bangladesh, has kept pace with its population growth. The annual rice production grew from 9 million tons in 1971 to 32 million tons in 2010 due mainly to the use of high yield varieties (HYV) (Figure 0 4). This development has been supported through the construction of flood embankments since the 1950s and through private and public irrigation. A large number of public irrigation projects was implemented through the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). This growth is reaching a limit as the agricultural area is shrinking and high yield varieties depend on predictable water supply and water levels, which are not available everywhere. It is predicted that Bangladesh will require 44 million tons of rice in 2050 to feed the population. Apart from further improvements in yield, a more predictable environment will play a major role. A predictable environment encompasses (i) more reliable dry season water supply for example through increased flows in distributaries, (ii) more dependable maximum flood season water levels, for example through controlled inflows into distributaries, as well as (iii) an increase in agricultural land through the recovery of lost floodplain land along stabilized river courses. Rice Production (Lac metric ton) 360 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Total Local HYV 1971 72 1973 74 1975 76 1977 78 1979 80 1981 82 1983 84 1985 86 1987 88 1989 90 1991 92 1993 94 1995 96 1997 98 1999 00 2001 02 2003 04 2005 06 2007 08 2009 10 Figure 0 4 Rice Production in Bangladesh (source: CEGIS) Page x December 2013
Final Report CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHER POVERTY INCIDENCE Poverty is still widespread in Bangladesh despite overall progress in poverty reduction. Figure 0 5 demonstrates that poverty levels along the main rivers, also in the central parts of Bangladesh (within yellow box) are above average and that poverty is linked with areas affected by floods. Figure 0 5 Poverty map upazila level and areas affected by floods and tidal surges, the program area lies within the yellow box (source: BBS, 2009) "The relationships between disasters, growth and poverty are both direct and indirect. When a disaster strikes, it immediately puts an end to economic and social activities, because the organisation of such activities becomes dysfunctional. Secondly, disasters such as floods or cyclones may disrupt communications and the infrastructure and consequently peoples employment and income may be adversely affected for a period. Most importantly, natural disasters create tremendous human misery, including death, both when they occur and in their aftermath. Often it is the poor and the infirm who fall easy prey to disasters and it is also they who may take the longest to recover from the adverse effects. Also, during a natural disaster the poor are more numerous among those killed because they are least prepared to face such events and they are generally more concentrated in the hazard prone areas of Bangladesh. Death of the earning member of a poor family brings lasting misery to its members. Thus the gains in poverty reduction suffer a setback. The other direct effects due to natural disasters include damages caused to residential housing, housing goods, crops, fisheries, and livestock. Damage done to transport and communication facilities, capital assets including stocks of food both at the household and the state level have significant indirect adverse effect. The indirect impact and the second round effects of natural disasters in Bangladesh are often hard to estimate." (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, 2005, p 21 22) Page xi
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program Poverty along the main rivers is associated with a lack of stability and predictability of the borderline between river and floodplain, and consequently a lack of investment. There is limited physical access to the areas, agricultural production is low due to the flood and erosion hazards, and at the household level the frequent occurrence of disaster keeps the families poor. THE BANGLADESH WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD AN UNDERFINANCED KEY PLAYER The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) has delivered structural and non structural flood and riverbank erosion risk management 4 targeted at proactive disaster prevention and preparedness for more than 50 years. Largely caused by insufficient success in participatory irrigation management, pressure from Bangladesh and development partners resulted in substantial reforms of the Board in 2000. However, the reform process overshot the target with respect to reduction of staff, which was reduced from more than 18,000 in the early 1990s to approximately 6,500 today. In parallel, the main part of the Board s annual budget, project assistance (PA) from donors, eroded dramatically from 60% of the budget in the 1980s and 90s to less than 20% over the last decade (Figure 0 6). During the decade 2000 to 2010 only three donors supported the BWDB, as opposed to nearly 20 in the 1970s. While the Government kept its funding at the same level, the lack of donor funds compromised the Board s ability to contribute successfully to proactive disaster risk management. Billion BDT 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1981 82 1982 83 1983 84 1984 85 1985 86 1986 87 1987 88 1988 89 1989 90 1990 91 1991 92 1992 93 1993 94 1994 95 1995 96 1996 97 1997 98 1998 99 1999 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 Fiscal Year PA (in 2012 prices) Total (Annually) Total (in 2012 prices) Figure 0 6 PPTA team) BWDB annual fund allocation (PA = donor financed project assistance) (source: During the 1980s and 1990s the BWDB faced the challenge of protecting rapidly widening main rivers without having appropriate funds and technologies. Important structural failures, such as the works at Sirajganj in 1998 designed and built by foreign consultants and contractors, demonstrated that the world had no proven technology to deal with the aggressive erosion of the Jamuna and the downstream rivers. This has changed over time, as the first results from pilot works conducted in 4 Comprising riverbank protection and flood embankments as structural measures, and flood forecasting and warning as non structural measure Page xii December 2013
Final Report the Jamuna provided more insight into the behaviour of different types of riverbank protection works. Finally, a low cost, sustainable technology using sand filled geobags was developed with ADB support in the early 2000s and reached general implementation standard with its incorporation into BWDB approved guidelines for riverbank protection in 2010. The stabilization of riverbanks remains a main task of the BWDB, which currently undertakes a number of efforts in that direction. To support this, O&M allocations in constant 2012 prices have steadily increased from BDT 1 billion (US$ 25 million) in the 1990s to around BDT 4 billion today. II Main River Flood and Erosion Management Strategy STRATEGIC CONTEXT The Government s Sixth Five Year Plan (General Economics Division, 2011) focusses on accelerated growth with equity and social justice, in line with the Government s Vision 2021 and the Perspective Plan 2012 2021. While the employment strategy recognizes the need to draw labour out of the agricultural sector into manufacturing, there remains the parallel need to provide higher remuneration for those left in agriculture through enhancing micro, small and medium enterprises and higher farm productivity. Also, a more balanced growth of urban centers across the country is desired, to reduce the pressure on the capital Dhaka. Food security remains the top priority. Millennium Development Goals (MDG) integrated into the Plan cover education, health and gender equity, but also fast track development in lagging regions. Given the perils of climate change, adaptation capacity for climate resilience will be systematically developed while responsiveness to disaster management will be improved (General Economics Division, 2011, preamble). The ADB country partnership strategy (CPS) 2011 2015 strongly supports the governments Sixth Five Year Plan (2011 2015) committed to enhancing growth and reducing poverty. It states further: In consideration of the country s vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change, ADB will help the government address binding constraints on growth in ways that foster environmental sustainability, reduce disaster risks, and respond to challenges posed by climate change and disaster emergencies. Harnessing emerging opportunities to foster regional cooperation and integration will also be a priority. The strategy is to make the growth process more inclusive and greener by improving connectivity, building the country's skills base, deepening its financial markets, boosting energy efficiency and access, investing to make cities more liveable, improving the management of water resources, and reducing flood risks. In order to achieve this, ADB concentrates on six sectors, one of which is agriculture and natural resources. The chosen approach is to support larger strategic projects and programs, including projects requiring advanced technology. Out of seven thematic drivers, the following five are relevant for to integrated flood and riverbank erosion risk management: (i) good governance and capacity development, (ii) environmental sustainability and climate resilience, (iii) regional cooperation 5, (v) gender equity, and (vi) knowledge solutions. The above strategy, at program level, could translates into the following five key quantitative and qualitative principles and targets for flood protection and riverbank erosion risk management in central Bangladesh: 5 Which could encompass international waterways and exchange of knowledge and data Page xiii
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program (i) To contribute substantially to the overall stabilization of the Brahmaputra River system from Bangabandhu (Jamuna) Bridge to Chandpur, reducing riverbank erosion rates to 50% of the current rate in selected sub reaches. (ii) To provide a substantially reduced flood risk in selected sub reaches, specifically along the central and western zone. (iii) To increase agricultural productivity during the flood season, through (i) a 50% increase in cropping area with reduced flood risk, (ii) a 60% increase in productivity, and (iii) a doubling of incremental agricultural benefits after completion of the Tranche 3 investment. (iv) To increase community awareness through 280 Ward Disaster Management Committees involving 7,000 change agents with 40% women participation. (v) To reduce above average poverty levels to the national average in the selected subreaches. POLICY FRAMEWORK Management of risks from floods and riverbank erosion and development of institutional structures and necessary infrastructure, need to be guided by policy which falls within the framework for integrated water resources management (IWRM) and which incorporates elements of disaster risk management. Key policy documents are summarised below. The water sector is guided by National Water Policy (NWP) 1999, with a focus on: (i) (ii) (iii) Comprehensive development and management of the main rivers through a system of barrages and other structural and non structural measures; Development of the water resources of the major rivers for multipurpose use, including irrigation, fisheries, navigation, forestry, and aquatic wildlife; Surveys and investigation of riverbank erosion and development and implementation of master plans for river training and erosion control works, to preserve scarce land and prevent landlessness and pauperisation. The National Water Management Plan (NWMP), 2001 defines the main rivers as a separate planning area with an allocation of nearly 25% of the overall funds. The NWMP is strongly focussed on implementation and provides for a number of detailed investment programs. The Disaster Management Act (DMA) 2012 supports the shift towards pro active prevention from the past more reactive responses. The National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM), 2010 has the vision to reduce the risk of people, especially the poor and the disadvantaged, from the effects of natural, environmental and human induced hazards, to a manageable and acceptable humanitarian level, and to have in place an efficient emergency response system capable of handling large scale disaster. Several other policies and plans are directly relevant to integrated flood and riverbank erosion risk management: (i) The Millennium Development Goals (2000) acknowledge the direct relevance of floods and erosion to poverty and suggests flood control and riverbank protection measures amongst others. Page xiv December 2013
Final Report (ii) (iii) (iv) The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2009) recommends capacity and resilience building measures to face the challenges of climate change. The Women in Development Policy (2001) demonstrates Government s commitment to empower women. The Outline Perspective Plan of Bangladesh (2011 2021) presents a vision to raise Bangladesh to a mid income country by 2021. Water resources development goals focus on protection of the environment and mitigation of climate change effects. Government is pursuing river restoration on a larger scale with a a number of alternative solutions including dredging pilot works under study. To this end more than BDT 10 billion (US$ 125 million) has been allocated for a feasibility study and for pilot scale dredging and sustainable river management of some 30 rivers, with a strong focus on pilot works in the Jamuna. This approach originated from Flood Action Plan studies conducted after the severe floods of 1987 and 1988. The existing policies and plans encourage a holistic and integrated approach to floods and river instability covering technical and non technical issues and with a view to allow for the impacts of climate change and sea level rise. With respect to river training and flood control infrastructure, substantial new developments have taken place since preparation of the NWMP some 15 years ago. Today, Bangladesh is leading the technical development for integrated flood and riverbank erosion risk management in South Asia, as acknowledged by several visits from Indian counterpart organizations, specifically from Assam, that suffer from flooding and river widening along the middle reach of the Brahmaputra. PREVENTING FLOOD DISASTER ALONG THE MAIN RIVERS The magnitude of disaster along the main rivers depends on the depth of water on the floodplain. This influences flood season crop production (Aman) and directly impacts on livelihoods of the predominantly rural society. While low medium floods are beneficial, higher floods cause havoc. The boundary between these roughly corresponds to a 10 year return period flood depth of 0.6 to 0.7 m along the Jamuna and Padma Rivers. This knowledge allows introducing the concept of open embankments, which allows limited or controlled annual flooding with all its benefits while capping the damaging peaks of high floods. A STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH RIVER STABILITY Proactive disaster prevention depends on structural measures to cover a large part of the overall risk. Floods and riverbank erosion are recurrent and to a large extent predictable, at least under a steady climate. Floods occur yearly and in the main rivers water levels do not increase much for higher floods 6 even through the rivers are partly embanked. One reason for this is that the river adapts quickly to higher flows by scouring the fine unconsolidated bed material and deepening its channels. The commonly provided freeboard of more than one meter on embankment height is generally far beyond the rise of water levels from an event of 100 year to 1,000 year return period. The result is that embankments along the main rivers are seldom overtopped but often fail due to unanticipated riverbank erosion. On the basis of investigation methods developed over the last 15 6 The difference between a 50 and 100 year flood water level is approximately 30 cm Page xv
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program years, riverbank erosion can now be predicted with reasonable confidence one year in advance, and the first counter measures to protect valuable infrastructure can be initiated in a timely manner. Consequently, the risk associated with both floods and riverbank erosion can be covered at a fairly high level of reliability through a systematic planning process, accompanied by flexible financing mechanisms. The proposed strategy depends on strategically located stable river banks, designed to protect existing embankment lines at critical erosion sites and to reconstruct eroded embankments or close local gaps that seriously affect large areas of floodplain (Figure 0 7). This would allow integrated management of flood and riverbank erosion risks to produce direct benefits for the whole river course and floodplain. Other enabling strategy pillars include an improved knowledge base, planning and institutions and measures for increased community resilience. The proposed program infrastructure development commences at Jamuna Bridge and reaches the confluence of the Padma and Upper Meghna in phases 7. This progressive approach corresponds to the more urgent needs of the generally more vulnerable program areas upstream. Figure 0 7 The benefits of strategic riverbank protection (Source: PPTA team) Key indicators for identifying the vulnerability of different reaches are riverbank erosion, flooding, and poverty, which are typically higher along both banks of the Jamuna and the left bank of the Padma River. Notwithstanding this, it is recognized that downstream areas need support during emergency situations and more detailed attention during later stages of the program. The choice of river stabilization measures will concentrate on methods likely to provide the highest rewards. This means three things: (i) addressing urgent erosion to stop future land losses, using the cost effective technology of long guiding revetments developed under JMREMP, which also supports stable navigation channels, (ii) combining expensive riverbank protection with systematic flood protection and water management measures to reap year round benefits in line with Government's 7 The World Bank supported Riverbank Improvement Program is expected to cover the reach from Jamuna Bridge to Kurigram, particularly focussing on the stability of the Brahmaputra Right Embankment (BRE) Page xvi December 2013
Final Report overall strategy to improve income in agricultural areas, and (iii) building works that can be largely incorporated into a future stabilized river planform. With respect to the last point, char growth and stabilization on the Jamuna River right bank downstream of Jamuna Bridge, exhibiting a single channel, would work in favor of Government s desired aim of reducing the Jamuna width. III Proposed Program TOWARDS A STABLE FUTURE Stable and predictable living conditions along the main rivers depend on an integrated approach combining flood and riverbank erosion risk management (FRERM) under the overall mandate of integrated water resources management (IWRM). A balanced mix of structural and non structural measures will provide the population with confidence in building their future. The principal measures consist of riverbank protection and local planning to reduce flood risk and increase preparedness, supported by flood risk mapping and early warning during flood seasons with information understandable by the rural population (Figure 0 8). The economic feasibility of the project is largely dependent on the use of flood embankments to reduce flood risks and damages. Existing embankment lines will be protected along critically eroding riverbanks and gaps will be closed where the embankments have been eroded. The proposed rehabilitated or reconstructed embankments will include land side roads to permit better monitoring and response to floods, and to improve the connectivity of the local population to market and urban centres (Figure 0 9). Wherever possible, new embankment sections to close gaps will be built on reclaimed charland, which reduces land acquisition and resettlement impacts. The concept of open embankments is proposed, meaning to stabilize the off takes of main distributaries to pass stable dry season flows and allow normal beneficial flooding ( borsha ), while capping the high, damaging floods ( bonna ) through limited regulation. Figure 0 8 AIRFRERMIP) Balanced FRERM measures providing the population with confidence (source: Page xvii
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program Figure 0 9 Multi purpose embankment alternatives (source: PPTA team) It is proposed that embankment works should be constructed only after the river banks are stabilized. Therefore priority embankment work proposed for the immediate future will be built in areas that are largely protected from riverbank erosion, while later embankments will be constructed after riverbank protection has been provided in a preceding tranche. The proposed multi purpose embankment design will easily adapt to potentially increased water levels resulting from climate change. The riverbank protection follows the principles of an adaptive approach 8 developed under the ADB supported Jamuna Meghna River Erosion Mitigation Project (JMREMP). JMREMP developed cost effective riverbank protection consisting of geotextile bag revetments, which were successfully implemented between 2004 and 2011 along around 30 km of riverbanks and have proven sustainable with minimal maintenance cost. Structural works is embedded in a planning framework and makes use of geotextile bag revetments, consisting of systematically dumped geobags under water and placed concrete blocks above water, and built in phases, following the river development. Construction is a multi year process of placement of main protection under water, followed later by wave protection and adaptation, as shown in Figure 0 10. This system is believed to provide the most suitable form of low cost protection for the variable main rivers of Bangladesh, and to date has proved successful in the river lengths where it has been applied. During later tranches, geotextile bag revetments will also provide the backbone for stabilizing the river course along recovered floodplain land. To minimize the impacts of this land recovery and avoid double construction of riverbank protection in same areas during the multi decadal process of river stabilization, an extensive river stabilization study accompanied by land recovery piloting will be conducted during Tranche 1 providing a long term plan for the future. 8 The adaptive approach is a flexible management approach to address ongoing and predicted riverbank erosion with the purpose of providing immediate stabilization, which is subsequently upgraded to increasing river depth. Page xviii December 2013
Final Report Figure 0 10 JMREMP) Geotextile bag revetments built in phases to stabilise river banks (source: UNLEASHING THE POTENTIAL Improved stability along the main rivers could unleash development potential on multiple levels: (i) Agricultural output will increase, both during the monsoon season and during the dry season when flow in key distributaries is restored. (ii) Most neglected areas along the riverbanks will get road access, boosting agribusiness and local manufacturing. (iii) Lost floodplain land will be recovered, allowing re occupation by poor people and return to productive use. (iv) Navigation channels will be stabilized, as demonstrated through improved access to the important inland port of Baghabari as a result of building long guiding revetments. On the Mississippi River in the USA, navigation was the driving economic force for around 1,500 km of river stabilization. (v) Fish habitat will be improved by providing defined char areas with natural cycles of flooding and drying, and by supporting measures along protected banks such as navigation buoys that prevent systematic overfishing through floating nets. Tranches 1 & 2 of the program concentrates on (Figure 0 11, Table 0 1): (i) Both banks of the Jamuna River specifically the right bank in Sirajganj Division (subproject JRB 1) and the left bank in Manikganj Division (subproject JLB 2), Page xix
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program (ii) The left bank of the Padma River, specifically in the area of Manikganj Division (subproject (PLB 1). Figure 0 11 PPTA team) Proposed program in 3 phases (tranches), priority tranches in darker grey (source: Page xx December 2013
Final Report Table 0 1 Key program elements (estimates PPTA Team) Tranche 1 Tranche 2 Tranche 3 Total Riverbank Protection (km) JRB1 1 11 12 JLB2 7 5 7 19 PLB1 7 (under water)* 7 (above water)* 5 12 other sites 7 7 Total 15 (partly) 23 (partly) 19 50 Embankment (km) JRB1 23 (rehab, new) 6 (rehab) 29 JLB2 12 (rehab) 23 (new) 35 PLB1 25 (rehab) 25 Total 23 43 23 87 Crest Pavement (km) JRB1 5 24 29 JLB2 12 12 PLB1 25 25 Total 5 61 66 Drainage Structure (No) JRB1 4 new 3 rehab 7 JLB2 1, LS allocation LS allocation 1 PLB1 LS allocation Total 7 1 8 Land Acquisition (hectares) JRB1 89.8 40.1 0 129.9 JLB2 21 61.8 108.4 191.2 PLB1 21 48.1 15 84.1 Other sites 36 36 Total 131.8 150 159.4 441.2 Resettlement (number of households) JRB1 630 551 0 1181 JLB2 252 490 846 1588 PLB1 252 646 180 1078 Other sites 432 432 Total 1,134 1,687 1,458 4279 Community based Flood Risk Management (trained volunteers) JRB1 240 510 510 1,260 JLB2 210 420 420 1,050 PLB1 150 270 270 690 Total 600 1200 1200 3,000 Note: LS lump sum * Riverbank protection in the same area Tranche 2 and Tranche 3 work are preliminary estimates subject to confirmation during later feasibility studies In addition to priority works at three sub reaches, Tranche 3 provides for work in other sub reaches. The timing and sequence of this work depends on natural river changes and major engineering works such as the construction of Padma Bridge. Potential priorities could be: (i) Work that safeguard and improves the most vulnerable reaches along the Jamuna and upper Padma Rivers, for example the important Dhaleswari (Pungli) offtake, and Page xxi
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program (ii) Work of great importance such as Chandpur Town Protection but also the bank opposite of Chandpur at the planned Sureswar FCDI project. PROGRAM COMPONENTS AND WORK SCHEDULE The proposed program has three main components: the first covers core elements of the IWRM framework such as institutions, knowledge base, and planning; the second relates to the implementation of the works, and the third to project management (Figure 0 12). Figure 0 13 summarizes key activities of the proposed work program as spread over three tranches. Interventions are shown for each of the three priority subprojects, in the form of embankment and riverbank protection works as well as flood risk mapping and community based flood risk management. The program is based on annual erosion prediction and includes emergency and adaptation allocations of about US$ 13.5 million 9. Fesibility studies to support Government in river stabilization and to prepare subsequent work, also in other sub reaches, are shown separately. Finally key studies are provided specifically at the beginning and end of the program. Figure 0 12 Work Breakdown Structure with main relationships between sub components 9 The budget is split into an emergency part and an adaptation part. In Tranche 1, it includes USD 1.5 million for the adaptation of existing work, where the river has eroded a deeper channel and the toe has to be protected from undermining and eventually failing, as shown in the lower part of Figure 0 10. Page xxii December 2013
Final Report Figure 0 13 Suggested tranche wise approach with optional works Page xxiii
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program PROPOSED INVESTMENT PROGRAM AND FINANCING PLAN The total investment is estimated to cost US$375 million (Table 0 2). The proposed Multi tranche Financing Facility (MFF) assumes an amount of US$250 million from ADB s Asian Development Fund (ADF) and US$15 million from the Government of The Netherlands to finance a part of the program (Table 0 3). The MFF is proposed to consist of three tranches. Table 0 2 Tentative Program Investment Plan as per ADB components ($ million) Item Amount a % Tranche 1 Tranche 2 Tranche 3 Total A. Institutional System for Flood and Riverbank Erosion Risk Management Strengthened 1. Institutional Capacity for Sustainable River Management Strengthened 12.70 0.95 0.68 14.33 4.52% 1.30 0.74 0.45 2.49 2. Knowledge Base Developed 11.39 0.21 0.23 11.83 B. Flood and Riverbank Erosion Risk Management Measures at Priority Reaches Implemented 70.54 111.44 93.27 275.25 86.91% 1. Infrastructure Improved 67.69 108.25 90.67 266.61 2. Community based Flood Risk Management Developed 1.58 1.76 1.76 5.10 3. Participatory Regular Operation and Maintenance Developed 0.30 0.30 4. Livelihood Support for Project Affected People Implemented 0.96 1.42 0.83 3.21 C. Program Management Strengthened 10.93 10.28 5.92 27.13 8.57% Total BASELINE COSTS b 94.17 122.67 99.86 316.70 100% Physical Contingencies c 4.47 6.13 4.99 15.59 4.92% Price Contingencies c 2.44 14.26 17.78 34.48 10.89% Total PROJECT COSTS 101.08 143.06 122.63 366.77 Interest During Implementation d 2.19 2.27 2.21 6.67 2% Total Costs to be Financed 103.27 145.33 124.84 373.44 117.81% a. Including taxes and duties of US$54.0 million to be financed by the government. b. In mid 2013 prices. c. Physical contingencies are computed at between 0% and 5%. Price contingencies computed on foreign exchange costs at 0% in year 1, 1.9% in year 2 and 1.8% thereafter, and on local currency cost at 0% in year 1, 6.5% in years 2 and 6.5% thereafter, including provisions for exchange rate fluctuation under the assumption of a purchasing power parity exchange rate. d. Includes interest computed at 2.0% per year. Figures may not sum due to rounding. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. Civil works and related land acquisition dominate the investment cost with more than 70% of the share. Increasing the knowledge base is reflected in significant study costs, specifically in Tranche 1 (Figure 0 14). The consulting services associated with the works vary between 8% and 5%. Studies and consulting costs total about 20% during the first tranche (suggested to be largely financed from the grant provided by the government of The Netherlands). The amount of contingencies increases from the first to the third tranche, from initially 8% to finally 18%, having an average of 14%. Page xxiv December 2013
Final Report Table 0 3 Tentative Financing Plan Source Amount (US$ million) Percent of Total Asian Development Bank 250 b 67.0 Government of The Netherlands 15 4.0 Government a 108 29.0 Total 373 100.0 a. Includes partial financing of bank protection works, and financing of land acquisition and resettlement, program management and taxes and duties. b. The ADB can commit up to US$ 250 million, which will be achieved during the adaptation process during loan fact finding Figures may not sum due to rounding. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. 100% 160 90% 80% 70% Interest during Implementation Contingencies 140 120 60% 50% Consulting Services 100 80 40% 30% 20% Prog Mgmt, Training Vehicles & Equipmen Land Acquisition and Resettlement 60 40 10% 0% Tranche 1 Tranche 2Tranche 3 Civil Works and Materials 20 0 Tranche 1Tranche 2 Tranche 3 Figure 0 14 Breakdown of major investment cost items as per DPP items in percent (left) and million US$ (right) Tranche 1 is estimated at US$103.3 million. This includes taxes and duties of US$8.4 million to be financed by the Government. The Government could request a loan for $60.0 million and submit the relevant periodic financing request to ADB. The Government of The Netherlands (GON) may provide grant financing of US$15.0 million for consulting services and studies regarding the pilot land recovery subproject, river stabilization, and program support. Government will provide the balance of US$29.6 million as counterpart funding, covering part of the cost of bank protection works, land acquisition and resettlement, and program management staff and office expenses. The ADB loan will have a term of 25 years, including a grace period of 5 years, with an interest rate of 2% throughout the period, and other terms and conditions as set forth in the loan and project agreements. The cost breakdown per tranche as per ADB classification is provided in Table 0 4, while Table 0 5 summarizes the financing plan for Tranche 1. Government contributes in total 22% to the program during all tranches, excluding tax, which translates into a program contribution of 29% for the executing agency BWDB (Figure 0 15). Page xxv
Main River Flood and River Bank Erosion Risk Management Program Table 0 4 Tentative tranche wise cost breakdown (ADB categorization) Item Tranche 1 Tranche 2 Tranche 3 Total % Total Investm. Cost I. Investment Costs 1 Civil Works 40.91 72.05 51.62 164.58 54.8% Embankment Works 11.01 25.17 10.70 46.88 Riverbank Protection Works 24.76 46.14 40.18 111.08 +Emergency and Adaptation 0.64 0.73 0.73 2.1 Pilot Land Recovery 4.50 4.5 2 Materials (Geotextiles) 15.44 16.43 22.47 54.34 19.5% Geotextiles for Riverbank Protection 12.96 12.72 18.76 44.44 Geotextiles for Emergencies 2.48 3.71 3.71 9.9 3 Vehicles and Equipment 0.57 0.01 0.16 0.74 0.6% Vehicles BWDB 0.35 0.11 0.46 Office Equipment BWDB 0.11 0.01 0.03 0.15 Survey Equipment BWDB 0.11 0.02 0.13 Equipment DDM 0.01 0.01 4 Consulting Services 15.28 10.87 6.23 32.38 11.8% ISPM Consultant 11.61 7.26 3.13 22 NGO Services BWDB 1.74 2.07 1.57 5.38 NGO Services DDM 0.99 0.97 0.97 2.93 Surveys and Investigation BWDB 0.94 0.57 0.57 2.08 5 Capacity Development (Training) 1.30 0.74 0.45 2.49 0.8% BWDB Training and Study Tours 0.83 0.53 0.26 1.62 DDM Training 0.02 0.03 0.05 MIS Development 0.37 0.14 0.14 0.65 6 Land Acquis. and Resettlement 11.21 13.35 10.37 34.93 11.0% Land Compensation 11.06 13.10 10.23 34.39 Resettlement Benefits 0.15 0.25 0.14 0.54 7 Program Management 1.88 1.40 1.38 4.66 1.5% Staff Salaries 1.05 0.78 0.78 2.61 Office Operations 0.59 0.44 0.44 1.47 DDM PMU Operation 0.15 0.11 0.10 0.36 BWDB River Surveys 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.19 8 Duties and Taxes 7.66 7.88 7.23 22.77 Total Investment Costs 94.17 122.67 99.86 316.7 100.0% II. Recurrent Costs Total Baseline Cost 94.17 122.67 99.86 316.7 100.0% Physical Contingencies 4.47 6.13 4.99 15.59 4.9% Price Contingencies 2.44 14.26 17.78 34.48 11.4% Total Including Contingencies 101.08 143.06 122.63 366.77 Interest During Implementation 2.19 2.27 2.21 6.67 2.0% Total Costs to be Financed 103.27 145.33 124.84 373.44 117.81% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% T1 T2 T3 Total %age BWDB %age GOB (without tax) Figure 0 15 Government of Bangladesh (GoB) contribution with and without taxes Page xxvi December 2013
Final Report Table 0 5 Tentative Cost Estimates and Financing Plan for Tranche 1 (US$ million) Item ADB GON Government a Total b A. Project Cost, including Contingencies c 1. Institutional System for Flood and Riverbank Erosion Risk Management Strengthened 2. Flood and Riverbank Erosion Risk Management Measures at Priority Reaches Implemented 1.87 10.14 1.26 13.27 52.9 23.15 76.05 3. Program Management Strengthened 3.03 4.86 3.86 11.75 Subtotal (A) 57.81 15 28.27 101.08 B. Financing Charges d 1.8 2.19 2.19 0 Total 60 15 28.27 103.27 Financing Share (%) 58.1 14.5 27.4 100 ADB Asian Development Bank GON Government of The Netherlands a. Includes partial financing of bank protection works, financing of land acquisition and resettlement, program management and taxes and duties. b. Including taxes and duties of US$8.4 million to be financed by the government. c. In mid 2013 prices. Physical contingencies are computed at between 0% and 10%. Price contingencies computed on foreign exchange costs at 0% in year 1, 1.9% in year 2 and 1.8% thereafter, and on local currency cost at 0% in year 1, 6.5% in years 2 and 6.5% thereafter, including provisions for exchange rate fluctuation under the assumption of a purchasing power parity exchange rate. d Includes interest computed at 2.0% per year. Figures may not sum due to rounding. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Economic analysis has been conducted for each of the three priority subprojects (JRB 1, JLB 2 and PLB 1) that have been identified for financing through the MFF. Economic internal rates of return (EIRRs) have been estimated for each subproject and a sensitivity analysis has been conducted to assess the impact of potentially negative changes in key project variables. The viability of Tranche 1 of the MFF is based on the benefits of these three subprojects. In all cases EIRRs have been estimated by treating each subproject as a stand alone investment and after the allocation of program overhead costs of consulting services, studies, and program management. The EIRRs for the subprojects are provided in Table 0 6. Table 0 6 Summary EIRR for the three priority subprojects Subproject With Program Overhead Costs EIRR (%) JRB 1 33.9 JLB 2 32.4 PLB 1 33.5 Sensitivity analysis on each project after the inclusion of overhead costs indicates that the total Program investment in each subproject is robust with respect to potential adverse changes in benefits and costs. All subprojects are most sensitive to a fall in benefits, but the lowest estimated switching value (SV) is 54% in the case of JRB 1. Page xxvii