Economic Assessment Report of Henderson County NC

EconomicAssessmentReport ofhendersoncountync September2015 Preparedfor: HendersonCountyBoardofCommissioners

Contents Introduction...3 Highlights...4 Demographics...7 PopulationTrends...7 PopulationCharacteristics...9 Income & Average Wage...13 Employment...17 WorkerFlows...17 LaborForceParticipation...18 TotalEmployment...18 BusinessEmployment&Wages...21 WorkforceDemographics...31 JobDemand...32 Business-Personal Property Values by Industry...35 Assessment of Key Economic Activities...38 Manufacturing...39 HealthCare...40 AgriBusiness...41 Tourism...43 AnnualPopulationInMigration...44 SummaryofEconomicImpacts...47 EstimatedTaxImpacts...48 StrategicImplications...50 Appendix...51 Firm Profile...52 EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage2of52

Introduction The Economic Assessment Report of Henderson County is an objective analysis of the characteristics and trends of the County economy.thereportisdesignedtosupportknowledgeabledecision making. Key Economic Activities & Impactshow does five of the County s major activities impact the economy, and how do they each comparetooneanother? Thereportispresentedinfivemainsections.Eachsectiontakesan indepth examination of a particular facet of the economy, yet recognizesthatthereisasignificantamountofoverlapbetweenthe facets. Thefivesections: DemographicswhoisHendersonCounty?Whataretheimportant populationtrendsandcharacteristicsofcountyresidents? Income&AverageWagehowhastheCounty sincomeandaverage wagegrown,andhowdoesthatgrowthcomparetothestateand nation? Employmentwhere do County residents work and how much are they paid? Where are new jobs being added? In what areas does thecountyspecialize? BusinessPersonalPropertyValuesbyIndustry whatarethefiscal contributionsofindustrysectorsinthecounty? EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage3of52

Highlights Demographics HendersonCountyhasexperiencedunbrokenpopulation growthforoverfourdecades,andisprojectedtocontinuea similartrendforatleastthenextfifteenyears. Netpopulationgrowthisdrivenentirelyfrominmigration; primarilyfromwithintheu.s. HendersonCounty smedianageat46.1yearsis8.3yearsabove thestateand8.7yearsabovethenation. Relativetothestateandnation,theCountyisunder representedinagegroupsbelowage50,andoverrepresented inagegroups59andabove. Despitenewresidentsincludingarelativelyhigherproportionof olderpersons,morethanhalfofthecounty snewresidentsare undertheageof35. LevelsofeducationalattainmentofHendersonCounty s residentpopulationcloselymatchlevelsinthestateandnation. Income & Average Wage At$38,611,percapitaincomeintheCountyisonparwiththe statewidefigure,yet16percentbelowthenation. After adjusting for inflation, per capita income increased by $1,784or6.2percentoverthelasttenyears.Thenetincreaseis 1.3percentagepointsgreaterthanthestatewideincrease,but lagsthenationbytwopercent. Personalgovernmenttransfers,namelySocialSecurityand Medicare,areplayingagreaterroleintheCounty stotal income,presentlyaccountingfor24percentofallincome. Asof2013,Henderson scounty saverageannualwageequaled $35,929;24percentbelowthestateand39percentbelowthe nation. Afteradjustingforinflation,theCounty saverageannualwage hasdecreasedby$764or2.6percentoverthelasttenyears. Employment TotalEmployment Asof2013,moreofHendersonCounty sresidentworkersout commuted for employment than worked in the County. Additionally, nonresident incommuting workers outnumbered residentworkersemployedinthecounty. As of 2013,55.3 percent of Henderson Countyresidents were either employed or looking for a job. The proportion is 7.8 percentage points below the state, and 8.5 percentage points belowthenation TotalemploymentintheCountypeakedin2008andis presentlystill2,101jobsor5.7percentlower. TheunemploymentrateinHendersonCountyaveraged4.6 percentoverthelasttwelvemonths,whichismorethana percentagepointbelowthestateandnation.theratehasbeen steadilydecliningsinceapeakinearly2010. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage4of52

BusinessEmployment&IndustryWages In terms of size, four businesses are dominant in Henderson County seconomy,togethertheyaccountfor57percentofall jobs: o HealthCare5,843jobs,17percent o Manufacturing5,312jobs,15percent o RetailTrade4,932jobs,14percent o Accommodations&FoodServices3,886jobs,11percent. Sixmajorbusinesstypesarelocallyspecialized;havingahigh relativeconcentrationofemployment.inorderof specialization: o AgricultureSupport o Manufacturing o RetailTrade o Accommodations&FoodService o Arts,Entertainment&Recreation o HealthCare Overthelastfiveyearsjobgrowthhasbeenledby Accommodations&FoodServices,adding484jobs,up14 percent,andresponsibleforonequarterofthecounty sjob creation. OthermajorjobcreatorsareHealthCareup420jobs,and Manufacturingup256jobs Ofthethreelargestjobcreators;theaverageweeklywagein Accommodations&FoodServicesis56percentbelowtheCounty average.bothhealthcareandmanufacturinghavewagesabove thecountyaverage;42and23percentaboverespectively. Among22occupationalgroupsinHendersonCounty,seven groupshaveahighdegreeoflocalspecialization,generally mirroringindustryspecialization.thetopfourinorderof specialization: o Farming&Forestry o Healthcare o Production o FoodPreparation&Serving WorkforceDemographics Therecessionseverelyimpactedmaleemploymentinthe County,withlossesmorethandoublethoseexperiencedby females.since2011jobgainsbymaleshaveoutpacedfemale gains,buttherelativeproportionremainshistoricallylow. Netemploymentgainshavebeenledentirelybyworkersover theageof55inhendersoncounty. Overthelasttenyears,workerswithalevelofeducationof SomecollegeorAssociatedegreehasovertakenworkerswitha Highschooldegreetocomprisethesinglelargestemployed educationalcategoryinthecounty. JobDemand TheHealthCareandRetailbusinessescomprisedoverhalfofall onlineadvertisedjobsforhendersoncounty;31and21percent respectively.manufacturingcomprisedfourpercentofopenings. FiftyeightpercentofallonlineadvertisedjobsrequiredaHigh schooldiplomaorequivalentorless.positionsrequiringa Bachelor'sdegreecomprisedthirteenpercent. Amongthetop33advertisedoccupations,twelverequiredpost secondaryeducation,andofthosetwodidnothaveexistingarea programs;physiciansandoccupationaltherapists. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage5of52

Key Economic Activities & Impacts BusinessPersonalPropertyValuesbyIndustry The Manufacturing sector accounted for $606.3 million, or 60.7 percent of total FY 2015 BusinessPersonal Property value in the County.Nootherindustryaccountedformorethanfivepercentof thetotal. A comparison of the oneyear change in total BusinessPersonal PropertyvaluesfromFY2014showsManufacturingresponsiblefor anincreaseof$79.6million;nearlydoublethetotalincreasefrom the remaining sixteen industry sectors that experienced growth. Twosectors,RetailTradeandFinance&Insurance,declinedintotal BusinessPersonalPropertyvalueovertheperiod. KeyEconomicActivities&IndividualEconomicImpacts Five key Henderson County economic activities were analyzed independentlyandmeasuredfortheirfulllocaleconomicimpacts. Together the analyses provide a unique means to objectively comparetheeconomicimpactsofeachactivity.theresultsprovide astraightforwardandquantifiablebenchmarkfromwhichtovalue the economic contributions of each activity specifically to HendersonCounty. Assummaryofresults: Jobs WeeklyWage (weighted) Direct Supported Total Direct Supported Average Manufacturing 5,669 4,652 10,321 $965 $711 $850 HealthCare 5,843 3,070 8,913 $852 $634 $777 Agribusiness 2,923 1,349 4,272 $515 $644 $556 Tourism 2,506 667 3,173 $367 $634 $423 InMigration(annual) 506 276 782 $672 $623 $657 In terms of total tax dollars generated, Manufacturing has the greatest impact, with a total annual estimated contribution of $267.9 million; $122.4 million in State & Local taxes and $145.5 millioninfederaltaxes.healthcarehasthesecondlargesttotaltax contribution of $135.1 million, followed by AgriBusiness at $66.5 millionandtourismat$32.9million.inmigrationcontributes$6.7 millionintaxesannually. As a proportion of the total estimated taxes generated by HendersonCounty seconomy,manufacturingisthetopcontributor amongthefivekeyactivities;responsiblefor26percentofthetotal; andnearlyathirdofallstate&localtaxes. Manufacturing activitiescontributesthemosttotalandsupported jobs,hasthehighestwagesbothdirectandsupported,andhasthe top job multiplier. Health Care, Agribusiness, and inmigration all sharethesamejobmultiplier;0.5.supportedjobwagesarehigher thandirectjobwagesinbothagribusinessandtourism. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage6of52

Demographics TheDemographicssectionlooksatwhoHendersonCountyis.The sectionexaminesimportantpopulationtrendsandcharacteristicsof Countyresidents. PopulationTrends According to the US Census Bureau, as of 2014 the population of HendersonCountytotaled111,149.Thisrepresentsanincreaseof 1,618 persons over 2013; but more significantly continues an unbrokenstreamofyearlypopulationgrowthdatingbacktoatleast 1970 (Figure 1), the year in which annual population figures first began to be published. Of North Carolina 100 counties, only 18 othershaveexperiencedasimilartrendofuninterruptedpopulation growth over the preceding 44 years. Unsurprisingly, the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (NCOSBM) projects population growth in the County to continue at a similar trendforthenext15years. HendersonCounty s2014annualrateofpopulationgrowthreached 1.5 percent in 2014; outpacing both the state (1.0%) and nation (0.7%). Following the most recent recession (ending in mid2009), the County s rate of population growth dropped to a low of 0.6 percent in 2012, but has climbed in the two subsequent years (Figure2).TheCountyexperiencedaprerecessionpeakin2006at 2.5percent;thehighestgrowthratesince1997.Overthelastten yearstherateofpopulationgrowthhasaveraged1.5percent(table 1).NCOSBMprojectspopulationgrowthtocontinueatanaverage annualpaceof0.9percentforthenext15years. Figure1 HendersonCounty TotalPopulation 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 Source:U.S.CensusBureau,NCOfficeofStateBudgetandManagement Figure2 AnnualPopulationGrowthRates 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source:U.S.CensusBureau Projected Henderson NorthCarolina Nation EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage7of52

Table1 AnnualPopulationGrowthRates 2014 Population 10year Average Rate 5year Average Rate 15year Projected Average Rate Henderson 111,149 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% NorthCarolina 9.9mil 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% Nation 318.8mil 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% Source:U.S.CensusBureau,NCOfficeofStateBudgetandManagement Population change is derived from three sources: natural (births overdeaths),domesticandinternationalmigration.overthemost recent2010to2014periodhendersoncounty spopulationgrowth wasdueoverwhelminglytonet domesticinmigration; 91 percent oftheincrease(figure3).netinternationalinmigrationaccounted fortheremainingninepercent.naturalchangewasresponsiblefor anetlossof962;thatisthecountyexperienced962moredeaths thanbirths. Figure3 NetSourceofPopulationChange(20102014) HendersonCounty 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 (1,000) Source:U.S.CensusBureau Domestic Migration 4,788 Natural (962) Figure4 AnnualSourceofPopulationChange* HendersonCounty International Migration458 Nationwide, only eleven percent of all 3,142 U.S. counties share Henderson smixofnetgrowthdrivensolelyfrominmigration. 2,700 2,200 DomesticMigration InternationalMigration NaturalIncrease Theroleofdomesticinmigrationasthechiefsourceofpopulation changeinthecountyisconfirmedwithanexaminationoftheten mostrecentyearsofdata(figure4).overthelastfiveyears,natural losses have expanded, consistent with an aging population that is attracting a slightly older demographic group, which is detailed furtherinthisreport. 1,700 1,200 700 200 (300) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Noestimateconductedforyear2000 Source:U.S.CensusBureau EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage8of52

PopulationCharacteristics Henderson County s median age stood at 46.1 years in 2013; 8.3 yearsabovethestateand8.7yearsabovethenation(figure5).the rise of the median age and gap from state and nation has grown overtheprevioussixpreviousyears. Acloserexaminationofparticularagegroupsrelativetothestate andnationshowshendersoncountyisunderrepresentedinallage groupsbelowage5054,andoverrepresentedinallagegroups55 59 and above (Figure 6).The widest under representation is age group2024,whichisroughly2.4percentagepointslowerthanthe stateandnation.andthewidestoverrepresentationisagegroup 6569,2.6percentagepointshigher. Figure5 MedianAge Figure6 AgeGroupsbyPercentofTotalPopulation2013 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% <5 59 Henderson NorthCarolina Nation 1014 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074 7579 8084 85+ 48 Source:U.S.CensusBureau 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:U.S.CensusBureau,moving3yearestimates Henderson NorthCarolina US Consideringthehigherrelativeproportionofolderresidentsandin migration ssingularroleinpopulationgrowth;theagecomposition of new residents into the County was compared to existing residents, the state and nation. New residents and existing residentsshareasimilargeneraldistribution;theproportioninage groupsunderages3544arelowerthanthestateandnation,and theproportionsoverages3544arehigherinage(figure7). However, it should be noted that age groups gaps among new residentsandthestateandnationarenotaswideasthegapsinthe existing resident population. For example, 19 percent of new residents are in age group 2534, which is just three percentage points below the state and nationwide proportion; but is nine percentagepointsabovehenderson sexistingresidentpopulation. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage9of52

This finding challenges the perception that Henderson County s population growth is driven primarily by retirees (ages 65 and older).whileproportionallybiasedtoolderagegroups,thereisstill significant new resident attraction among younger age groups. Another simpler way to express this is that more than half (51 percent)ofthecounty snewresidentsareundertheageof35. residentswhohaveattained Somecollege,nodegree. Atthisvery general level of analysis, educational attainment is not a distinguishingassetorliabilityforthecounty. Figure8 EducationAttainmentbyPercentofTotalPopulation(age25+) 20092013Survey Figure7 AgeGroups&NewResidents 20092013Estimates 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Henderson Nation NorthCarolina 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% ExistingHenderson Residents NewHenderson Residents Nation NorthCarolina 5% 0% Lessthan 9thgrade Source:U.S.CensusBureau 9thto12th Highschool Some grade,no diploma graduate college,no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree 0% <25 2534 3544 4554 5564 65+ Source:U.S.CensusBureau Levels of educational attainment of Henderson County s resident population,ages25yearandolder,closelymatchlevelsinthestate andnation(figure8andtable2).thereisaslighttwoandonehalf percentage point local strength in the relative proportion of EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage10of52

Table2 EducationAttainmentbyPercentofTotalPopulation(age25+) 20092013Survey Henderson North # % Carolina Nation Lessthan9thgrade 3,309 4.2% 5.7% 5.9% 9thto12thgrade,no diploma 6,539 8.3% 9.4% 8.0% Highschoolgraduate 20,956 26.6% 27.0% 28.1% Somecollege,nodegree 18,750 23.8% 21.9% 21.2% Associate'sdegree 7,406 9.4% 8.7% 7.8% Bachelor'sdegree 13,787 17.5% 18.0% 18.0% Graduateorprofessional degree 8,036 10.2% 9.3% 10.8% Source:U.S.CensusBureau Among major racial categories, Henderson County comprises a higher relative proportion of those classifying themselves as White thaninthestateornation(table3).similarlythecounty has lower relative proportions of residents among the four remainingmajorracialclassifications. In terms of ethnicity, 1 Henderson County s 10,743 Hispanics represent 9.8 percent of the population, which is.09 percentage points greater than the statewide proportion, yet 7.3 percentage pointsbelowthenationwideshare(table4). Table3 RaceComposition2013 White Blackor African American American Indian/ Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander Henderson(#) 101,957 3,632 738 1,185 189 Henderson(%) 93.1% 3.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% NorthCarolina 71.7% 22.0% 1.6% 2.6% 0.1% Nation 77.7% 13.2% 1.2% 5.3% 0.2% Source:U.S.CensusBureau Table4 HispanicProportion2013* Hispanic Origin Henderson(#) 10,743 Henderson(%) 9.8% NorthCarolina 8.9% Nation 17.1% *Hispanicorigincanbeheritage,nationality,lineage,orcountryofbirth.People whoidentifyashispanicmaybeanyrace. Source:U.S.CensusBureau Henderson County s gender mix is similar to the statewide composition;womencomprisingroughlythreepercentmoreofthe total population than men (Table 5). Nationwide the difference is closertotwopercent. 1 Ethnicityreferstoculturalfactors,whileracialdefinitionsarebasedon physicalcharacteristics. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage11of52

Table5 GenderComposition2013 Female Male Figure10 HouseholdsbyType 20092013Survey Henderson(#) 56,576 52,964 Henderson(%) 51.6% 48.4% Henderson 55% 12% 33% NorthCarolina 51.3% 48.7% Nation 50.8% 49.2% Source:U.S.CensusBureau NorthCarolina 49% 18% 33% At2.9persons,theaveragefamilysizeinHendersonCountyis0.2 persons lower that the statewide average and 0.3 persons lower than the nationwide average (Figure 9). Marriedcouple family householdscomprise55percentofallhouseholdsinthecounty,six percentagepointsgreaterthanthestateandnation(figure10).and singlepersonhouseholdscomprise12percentofhouseholds,which issixpercentagepointslessthanthestateornation. Nation Source:U.S.CensusBureau 49% 18% Marriedcouplefamilyhousehold Singlehouseholder,familyhousehold Nonfamilyhousehold 34% Figure9 AverageFamilySize 20092013Survey 3.2 3.1 2.9 Inthemostrecent20092013survey,thepercentofHenderson County spopulationlivingbelowthepovertylevelis14.1,or14,975 persons(figure11). 2 Thisisanincreasefrom12.1percentinthe earlier20052009survey,whichrepresented11,834personsliving belowthepovertylevel.thecounty spovertyrateisbelowboth thestatewideandnationalrates;17.5and15.4percentrespectively inthemostrecentsurvey. Source:U.S.CensusBureau Nation NorthCarolina Henderson 2 Povertylevelsvaryaccordingtohouseholdsizeandageofchildren. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage12of52

Figure11 PercentofPopulationLivingBelowPovertyLevel 20092013Survey 18% 17.5% indicator of consumers' purchasing power and of the economic wellbeingoftheresidentsofanarea.pciismeasuredbyplaceof residence,notplaceofwork.hendersoncountyworkerstraveling outsidethecountyforemploymentareincludedinthepciresults. Source:U.S.CensusBureau Income & Average Wage 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 12.1% 15.1% 20052009 13.5% 14.1% 20092013 15.4% Henderson NorthCarolina UnitedStates The Income & Average Wage section looks at how Henderson County sincomeandaveragewagehasgrownandhowthatgrowth comparestothestateandnation. Asof2013,Henderson scounty spciequaled$38,611;lessthana percentbelowthestatewidepcifigure,and16percentbelowthe national PCI. After adjusting for inflation, the County s PCI has increasedby$1,784or6.2percentoverthelasttenyears(figures 13, 13 Table 6). The net increase is 1.3 percentage points greater thanthestatewideincrease,butlagsthenationbytwopercent. Figure12 PerCapitaIncome InflationAdjusted $37,000 $35,000 $33,000 $31,000 $29,000 $27,000 Nation Henderson NorthCarolina 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis Per capita income (PCI) is a broad measure of income, including wages, proprietor s income, investment income and personal government transfers. Per capita income is often used as an EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage13of52

Figure13 PerCapitaIncome 20032013NetChange(2013=0) InflationAdjusted Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis Table6 PerCapitaIncome 2013 10yearinflation adjustedchange Henderson $38,611 $1,784 6.2% NorthCarolina $38,683 $1,416 4.9% Nation $44,765 $2,680 8.2% Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Recession 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nation Henderson NorthCarolina County sincometoitspresent24percent,whileearningsdropped three percent and investment income by one percent (Figure 15). Amongthethreesources,personalgovernmenttransferswerenot notablyimpactedbythemostrecentrecession. Figure14 SourcesofTotalIncome InflationAdjusted HendersonCounty $2,300M $2,100M $1,900M $1,700M $1,500M $1,300M $1,100M $900M $700M $500M Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis Recession Investment Income Earnings Personal Goverment Transfers 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Among the sources of total income in 2013, earnings (wages, salariesandproprietor sincome)comprises52percentofthetotal, withtheremaindersplitequalingbetweeninvestmentincomeand personal government transfers (Figure 14). Over the last decade, personal government transfers has grown from 20 percent of the EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage14of52

Figure15 SourcesofTotalIncome 20032013NetChange(2013=0) InflationAdjusted HendersonCounty $800M $700M Recession Earnings Figure16 PersonalGovernmentTransfers InflationAdjusted HendersonCounty $600M $500M $400M $300M Personal Goverment Transfers Investment Income $400M $350M $300M $250M SocialSecurity MedicalBenefits $200M $200M $100M $150M Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis $M 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Acloserexaminationofpersonalgovernmenttransfersshowsthe significantrolesofsocialsecurityandmedicalbenefits(primarily Medicare);whichtogetheraccountfor85percentofallpersonal governmenttransfersintothecounty(figure16).overall,social SecurityandMedicalBenefitscontribute17percentoftheCounty s totalincome. $100M $50M $M Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis IncomeMaintenance VeteransBenefits Unemployment 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average annual wage per job is simply total wages and salaries dividedbythenumberofwageandsalaryjobsinthecounty.unlike PCI,averageannualwageperjobfiguresaremeasuredbyplaceof work, not residence. The numbers provide a relative gauge of job quality of employment within the County, although nonresidents workinginthecountyarealsoincluded. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage15of52

As of 2013, Henderson s County s average annual wage (AAW) equaled $35,929; the figure is 24 percent below the state and 39 percentbelowthenation.afteradjustingforinflation,thecounty s AWWhasdecreasedby$764or2.6percentoverthelasttenyears (Figures 17, 18 and Table 7). Over the same period the statewide AAW increased by 3.8 percent and nationally by 4.7 percent. Because AAW only measures employed persons, the changes overtime and between geographies is chiefly due to changes in industrialcomposition. Figure17 AverageAnnualWageperJob InflationAdjusted $41,000 Figure18 AverageAnnualWageperJob 20032013NetChange(2013=0) InflationAdjusted $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Recession Nation $1,772 NorthCarolina $1,287 $39,000 $37,000 $35,000 Nation NorthCarolina ($500) ($1,000) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis Henderson ($746) $33,000 $31,000 $29,000 Henderson $27,000 $25,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis Table7 AverageAnnualWageperJob 2013 10yearinflation adjustedchange Henderson $35,929 ($746) 2.6% NorthCarolina $44,656 $1,287 3.8% Nation $50,012 $1,772 4.7% Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage16of52

Employment TheEmploymentsectionexaminesthedifferentfacetsofworkingin HendersonCounty. WorkerFlows Understanding worker flows is critical to correctly interpreting Henderson County s employment and industry trends. Nearly all stateandfederalstatisticalagenciesmeasureemploymentbyplace of work. Because employment data is mostly reported by employers,theseagenciesgenerallydisregardwheretheemployees actuallylive.fordataforanationorevenstatethedifferencesin live and work locations is typically not significant to outcomes. Howeveratacountylevel,countingjobsonlybyplaceofworkcan lead to missing major employment trends as resident workers commute outside the county for employment, and nonresident workerscommuteintothecountyforemployment. Oddly, due to shifting worker flows, the number of Henderson residents employed increased over the 2002 to 2013 period (up 9,217jobsor33percent),whilethenumberofpersonsemployedin the County remained essentially flat (up 99 jobs or 0.3 percent), despiteasignificantincreaseinincommuting(up2,272jobsor16.5 percent). Goingforwardinthisassessment,mostemploymentmeasureswill bebyplaceofemployment;whichignoresresidentoutcommuting. Figure19 WorkerFlows* HendersonCounty 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 Recession LivinginHenderson butemployed Outside (outcommuters) Employedin Hendersonbut LivingOutside (incommuters) TheU.S.CensusBureaurecentlydevelopedaprogramformatching employer records with personal administrative records. Data from the program enables linking a worker s place of employment to placeofresidence.dataareavailableforyears2002to2013. 16,000 14,000 12,000 Living&Employedin Henderson As of 2013, more of Henderson County s resident workers out commutedforemploymentthanworkedinthecounty(59percent outcommute) (Figure 19, Table 8).Additionally, nonresident in commuting workers outnumbered resident workers employed in thecounty(52percentofincountyemployment). 10,000 *Onlyone primary jobiscountedforeachworker. Source:U.S.CensusBureau 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage17of52

Table8 Workerflows 2013 20022013change Living&EmployedinHenderson 15,338 2,273 12.9% LivinginHendersonbutEmployed Outside(outcommuters) 21,833 11,490 111.1% EmployedinHendersonbutLiving Outside(incommuters) 16,786 2,372 16.5% Source:U.S.CensusBureau Figure20 LaborForceParticipation Ages16+ 66% 64% 62% 60% Recession Nation NorthCarolina LaborForceParticipation As of 2013, 55.3 percent of Henderson County residents over the ageof15wereeitheremployedorlookingforajob.theproportion is7.8percentagepointsbelowthestate,and8.5percentagepoints belowthenation(figure20).laborforceparticipationhasdeclined ineveryyearsince2008. 58% 56% Henderson 54% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:U.S.CensusBureau,moving3yearestimates TotalEmployment Asofthesecondquarterof2014,totalemploymentinHenderson County equaled 34,891 (Figure 21). Total employment peaked in 2008andispresently2,101jobsor5.7percentlower. BeginninginAugust2010,theCountyexperiencednearlyunbroken monthlyyeartoyearjobgrowth,atanaverageannualpaceof1.6 percent(figure22).formostof2013andearly2014jobgrowthin Henderson County outpaced the state and nation. In the most EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage18of52

recentsixmonthsofdata,april2014toseptember2014,thepace turnednegative,averaging0.9percentor313fewerjobs. TheunemploymentrateinHendersonCountyaveraged4.6percent overthelasttwelvemonths,whichismorethanapercentagepoint belowthestateandnation(figure23).theratehasbeensteadily decliningsinceapeakinearly2010. Figure21 TotalEmployment HendersonCounty 37,500 37,000 Recession 36,500 36,000 35,500 35,000 34,500 34,000 33,500 33,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce,2 nd quarters EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage19of52

Figure22 EmploymentChange MonthlyYearOverYear 6.0% Recession 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Henderson NorthCarolina Nation 10.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage20of52

Figure23 UnemploymentRate(%) Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nation NorthCarolina Henderson BusinessEmployment&Wages In terms of total employment, four businesses are dominant in Henderson County s economy (Figure 24). Each represents more than ten percent of the County s employment, and together they accountfor57percentofalljobs.at5,843jobs,healthcareisthe largest business, 17 percent of the total; while Manufacturing, whichemploys5,312,isaclosesecondat15percent.retailtrade employs 4,932 and accounts for 14 percent of total employment. Andfinally,theAccommodations&FoodServicesindustryemploys 3,886,whichrepresents11percentofalljobsintheCounty. In some business classification arrangements Accommodations & FoodServicesiscombinedwithArts,Entertainment&Recreationto form a Leisure & Hospitality industry sector. Using this format, Henderson County s Leisure & Hospitality business would total 4,517jobs,rankfourthlargestandemploy13percent AgricultureemploymentistreateddifferentlybystateandFederal agencies due to dissimilarities from other businesses in employee reportingandseasonalityofoperations.employmentisreportedfor AgricultureSupport,whichincludessupportingactivitiessuchassoil preparation,machineharvestingandlaborcontracting.henderson County has 1,211 jobs in Agriculture Support. However, employmentatmanyfarms,greenhousesandranchoperationsare notincluded.accordingtothemostrecentcensusofagriculture,in 2012therewere468farmsintheCounty,comprising35,752acres. IntheKEYECONOMICACTIVITESsectionanassessmentofthelocal agriculture sector is made using a variety of sources to obtain a morecomprehensiveviewoftheindustry seconomicimpact. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage21of52

Figure24 MajorBusinessTotalEmployment2014 HendersonCounty *Doesnotincludeagriculturalproduction. Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce HealthCare Manufacturing RetailTrade Accommodations&Food Service Education AdminServices Construction PublicAdmin AgricultureSupport* WholesaleTrade Professional&Technical Services Finance&Insurance Transportation&Warehousing Arts,Entertainment& Recreation Information RealEstate ManagementofCompanies Utilities 1,211 1,149 894 670 670 631 197 68 294 292 1,878 1,731 1,566 2,389 3,886 5,312 4,932 5,843 Absolutebusinessemploymentisanimportantindicator,yetitdoes not address whether the composition is comparable to other geographies. Are the particular business concentrations unique to HendersonCountyordotheysimplymirrorwhatmightbeobserved nationwide? To determine whether employment in a particular business is relatively greater in Henderson County, the Degree of Local Specialization (DLS) calculation was conducted. 3 Identifying Henderson County s DLS (higher proportion of employment in a particular business relative to the nation) is important for several reasons. Firstly, high specialization figures indicate the County is exporting those products or services outside its boundaries. 4 Exportingisthebasisforwealthcreation.Productsorservicesnot exportedarelimitedintheirgrowthpotentialbylocaldemandand theinabilitytoattractnewdollarsintotheeconomy.secondly,high specialization implies unique local conditions, expertise, skills, supporting institutions, production processes, etc. It indicates Henderson County has a competitive advantage in that particular economicactivity. At 3.5, Henderson County s business with the highest DLS is Agriculture Support (Figure 25 Table 9). Although the Agriculture Support classification does not fully capture total employment in 3 TheDLScalculationprovidesanindex,where1.0isaproportionof businessemploymentequaltothenation;lessthan1.0meansthe proportionislessthanthenation,andgreaterthan1.0meansthe proportionisgreaterthanthenation.locallyspecializedbusinessesare recognizedwhendlsindexscoresareabove1.0.forexample,ascoreof 1.2wouldshowthelocalproportionofemploymentinaparticular businessisroughly20percentgreaterthanthenation. 4 Conceptually,specializationintourismindicatesaneconomyis exporting experiences,attractionsoramenitiestooutsiders. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage22of52

Agriculture, it does indicate the business overall is highly specialized. Next in terms of local specialization is Manufacturing withadlsof1.7.oftheremainingfourbusinesseswithdlsscores above 1.0; three are related to tourism (Retail Trade, Accommodations & Food Service and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation). Finally the Health Care industry displays high relative localspecializationwithadlsscoreof1.1. Table9 BusinessEmploymentChange&AverageWeeklyWage HendersonCounty Degree oflocal Specialization 2014 Employment FiveYear Change TotalPrivateIndustries 30,356 1,583 Rankbyspecialization AgricultureSupport* 3.5 1,211 115 Manufacturing 1.7 5,312 256 RetailTrade 1.2 4,889 138 Accommodations&FoodService 1.2 3,886 484 HealthCare 1.1 5,843 420 Arts,Entertainment&Recreation 1.1 616 (143) Construction 1.0 1,731 (121) AdministrativeServices 0.8 1,868 214 WholesaleTrade 0.8 1,149 111 Education 0.6 396 25 RealEstate 0.5 292 55 Utilities 0.5 68 5 Finance&Insurance 0.5 670 (52) Transportation&Warehousing 0.5 521 31 Information 0.4 294 (97) Professional&TechnicalServices 0.4 894 67 ManagementofCompanies 0.4 197 18 *Doesnotincludeagriculturalproduction Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce,USBureauofLaborStatistics EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage23of52

Figure25 PrivateBusinessEmploymentChange&DegreeofLocalSpecialization HendersonCounty 4.0 Ag Support* 3.5 DegreeofLocalspecialization 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Construction Retail Trade Manufacturing Health Care Accommodations & Food Service Information Wholesale Trade Admin Services 0.0 (200) (100) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Finance & Insurance Utilities Management of Companies Education Transportation & Warehousing Bubblesizerepresentstotalemploymentasof20143Q *Doesnotincludeagriculturalproduction. Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce,USBureauofLaborStatistics Professional & Technical Services Real Estate EmploymentChange20092014 EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage24of52

Netemploymentchangebybusinessisexaminedfrom2009tothe mostcurrent2014data.bybeginningin2009themeasureintends to avoid core recession losses and capture current postrecession trends. Figure26 MajorBusinessEmploymentChange20092014 HendersonCounty Accommodations&FoodService 484 Ofalleighteenbusinesssectors,thirteenhaveexperiencednetjob gains (Figure 26). Among growing businesses, Accommodations & FoodServiceshasproducedthemostnetnewjobs,adding484jobs, up14percent,andresponsibleforonequarterofthecounty sjob growth.followingishealthcare,whichhasadded420jobs,isup8 percent, and accounts for 21 percent of the County s job growth. And Manufacturing grew by 256 jobs, is up 5 percent and is responsible for 13 percent of County job growth. Together these threebusinesseshaveproduced59percentofnetjobgrowth. HealthCare Manufacturing AdminServices RetailTrade AgricultureSupport* WholesaleTrade PublicAdmin 256 204 147 115 111 75 420 As with the business concentration observed in the total employmentnumbers;jobgrowthhasalsobeenconcentratedina handfulofdominantbusinesses. Professional&TechnicalServices RealEstate ManagementofCompanies 67 55 18 The Admin (Administrative) Services business ranked fourth in job creation by adding 204 jobs and bears description. The sector primarily provides services to other businesses such as temporary employment, recordkeeping, building maintenance and waste collection. Growth in this business is not unique to Henderson County and reflects a trend towards outsourcing nonessential businessservices. Utilities Transportation&Warehousing Education Finance&Insurance Information Construction (6) (52) (97) (121) 5 2 Arts,Entertainment&Recreation (153) *Doesnotincludeagriculturalproduction. Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage25of52

Average industry weekly wages range from a high of $1,258 in Utilitiestoalowof$303inAccommodations&FoodService(Figure 27).ComparedtotheCounty saverageof$681,elevenbusinesses havehigherwages,withtheremainingsevenlower. Figure27 MajorBusinessAverageWeeklyWage2014 HendersonCounty Utilities ManagementofCompanies $1,258 $1,244 Figure28intersectsbothbusinesswagesandbusinessemployment growth onto a single chart. The chart visually displays that employment growth in higher wage businesses has been led by Manufacturing and Health Care; and in lower wage businesses by Accommodations & Food Service and Admin (Administrative) Services. The average weekly wage in Accommodations & Food Servicesis56percentbelowtheCountyaverage.WhilebothHealth CareandManufacturinghavewagesabovetheCountyaverage;42 and23percentaboverespectively. Finance&Insurance Manufacturing Professional&TechnicalServices Transportation&Warehousing HealthCare WholesaleTrade PublicAdmin Information Construction Education RealEstate AgricultureSupport* AdminServices RetailTrade $1,023 $965 $868 $857 $835 $801 $785 $753 $699 $659 $540 $532 $497 $495 Arts,Entertainment&Recreation Accommodations&FoodService $303 $476 CountyAvg$681 *Doesnotincludeagriculturalproduction. Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage26of52

Figure28 BusinessEmploymentChange&AverageWeeklyWage HendersonCounty $1,400 Utilities Management of Companies AverageWeeklyWage $1,200 Finance & Insurance $1,000 Transportation & Warehousing Information $800 Construction $600 $400 $200 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Education Professional & Technical Services Real Estate Public Admin Ag Support* Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Admin Services Health Care CountyAvg$681 Accommodations & Food Service $0 (200) (100) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Bubblesizerepresentstotalemploymentasof20143Q *Doesnotincludeagriculturalproduction. Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce EmploymentChange20092014 EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage27of52

An analysis of County subsector business employment by wage quartilesshowsthatcurrentwagedistributionisrelativelybalanced andrecentjobgainshaveremainedcomparable.totalemployment was separated into four wage quartiles according to 67 local businesssubsectors(thetwomiddlequartileswerecombinedintoa single50percentgroupingtosimplifytheanalysis).theresultshave the proportions of employment closely matching the respective quartiles;asexampledby27percentofemploymentinthetop25 percentbusinesswagequartile(figure29).overthelastfiveyears, job gains in thecountyhave trendedslightlytowards lower wage businesses;36percentofgainstothebottomwagequartileversus 32percenttoboththemiddleandtopquartiles(Figure30). Figure29 TotalEmploymentbyIndustryWageQuartile2014 HendersonCounty Figure30 FiveYearEmploymentGainsbyIndustryWageQuartile 20092014HendersonCounty Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage28of52

Aswithbusinesses,employmentcanbeexaminedbyoccupations. Unlike businesses, occupations reveal underlying worker skills and expertise. Among 22 occupational groups in Henderson County, sevengroupshaveahighdegreeoflocalspecialization(dls>1.0) (Table10).Unsurprisingly,amongthesevenisFarming&Forestry, two groups in Healthcare, Production and Food Preparation & Serving. Overlaying the DLS scores with the corresponding average hourly wage revels that only one occupational group, Healthcare Practitioners&Technical,isbothlocallyspecializedandhaswages greaterthanthe$18.37hourlycountyaverage(figure31). Table10 EmploymentbyOccupationalGroups2015 RankedbyDegreeofLocalSpecialization HendersonCounty Occupation Hourly AverageWage DegreeofLocal Specialization Employ ment Farming&Forestry $11.88 1.86 200 HealthcareSupport $12.37 1.70 1,610 Production $17.73 1.68 3,610 HealthcarePractitioners& Technical $36.10 1.30 2,450 BuildingCleaning& $10.57 1.27 1,330 Occupation Maintenance Installation,Maintenance& Repair Hourly AverageWage DegreeofLocal Specialization Employ ment $18.27 1.22 1,540 FoodPreparation&Serving $9.54 1.20 3,530 Construction $16.76 0.98 1,240 Transportation&Material Moving $14.09 0.96 2,120 Sales $16.62 0.94 3,210 Community&SocialServices $20.12 0.93 430 Education,Training&Library $19.73 0.91 1,850 Office&Administrative Support $15.61 0.90 4,690 PersonalCare $10.57 0.84 840 Arts,Design,Entertainment, Sports&Media $17.93 0.77 330 ProtectiveService $16.93 0.72 570 Legal $23.84 0.71 180 Management $43.96 0.64 1,040 Business&Financial Operations $27.88 0.58 950 Architecture&Engineering $33.00 0.57 330 Life,Physical&SocialScience $26.48 0.29 80 Computer&Mathematical $28.79 0.28 260 Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics,NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage29of52

Figure31 EmploymentbyOccupationGroups;DegreeofLocalSpecialization&AverageHourlyWage HendersonCounty 2.0 Farming&Forestry CountyAvg$18.37 DegreeofLocalSpecialization 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 Building Cleaning& Maintenance Construction 0.8 Sales 0.6 Personal Care 0.4 0.2 Office& Administrative Support Food Preparation &Serving Healthcare Support Transportation &Material Moving Protective Service Bubblesizerepresentstotalemploymentasof2014 Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce Arts,Design, Entertainment,Sports &Media Production Installation, Maintenance&Repair Education,Training& Library Community&Social Services Legal Life,Physical &SocialScience HealthcarePractitioners &Technical Business&Financial Operations Architecture& Engineering Computer& Mathematical Management $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 AverageHourlyWage EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage30of52

WorkforceDemographics As of 2014, males comprised 48.8 percent of Henderson County s workforce. Males made up 51 percent of workers as recently as 2008 (Figure 32). The recession severely impacted males, with lossesmorethandoublethoseexperiencedbyfemales(down2,832 versus 1,148 between 2006 and 2011).Since 2011 job gains by males have outpaced female gains 2 to 1, but the relative proportionremainshistoricallylow. Figure32 EmploymentbyGender HendersonCounty 18,000 17,500 Recession Netemploymentgainsamongagegroupshavebeenledsolelyby older workers in Henderson County (Figure 33). Over the last ten years, workers ages 5564 increased by 1,407, up 32 percent. Similarly,overthesameperiod,workersagesover64increasedby 765 or 49 percent. All other age groups experienced declines, the greatestbeingthoseunderage25,downby918or20percent.the trends have moderated postrecession; but net gains are still to thoseworkers55andolder. Figure33 EmploymentbyAgeGroups HendersonCounty 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Recession 4554 3544 2534 5564 17,000 Female 4,000 <25 16,500 3,000 16,000 Male 2,000 >64 15,500 1,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source:U.S.CensusBureau 15,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source:U.S.CensusBureau EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage31of52

Overthelasttenyears,workerswithalevelofeducationofSome collegeorassociatedegreehasovertakenworkerswithalevelof Highschoolorequivalent,nocollegetocomprisethesinglelargest employededucationalcategoryinthecounty(figure34).post recession,theworkforceproportionsacrossalleducationlevelshas remainedrelativelyconstant. Figure34 EmploymentbyLevelofEducation HendersonCounty 11,000 10,000 Recession Somecollegeor Associatedegree JobDemand Togaugejobdemand,dataofonlineadvertisedjobsinHenderson County overthe twelvemost recent months was analyzed. 5 Some cautionshould beexercised ininterpreting onlineadvertisedjobs. Somefirmsholdlongstandingjobadvertisementswhichmaynotbe directly tied to a particular opened position; but reflect the establishment of a pool of potential hires. Also examining the quantity of postings provides no indication of how critical an unfilledpositionistoafirm soperations. 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Highschoolor equivalent,no college Bachelor'sor advanceddegree The Health Care and Retail businesses comprised over half of all online advertised jobs; 31 and 21 percent of average monthly openings respectively (Figure 35). Manufacturing comprised four percent of openings. Two businesses, Agriculture and Utilities, averagedlessthanonepositionamonth,overtheoneyearperiod. 5,000 4,000 Workersaged24or younger* Lessthanhigh school 3,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Notlevelofeducationisassignedtothoselessthan25years. Source:USCensusBureau 5 ThedataiscompiledandpublishedbyGeographicSolutionsundera contractwiththenorthcarolinadepartmentofcommerce EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage32of52

Figure35 AverageMonthlyJobOpeningsbyBusiness HendersonCounty Figure36 AverageMonthlyJobOpeningsbyEntryLevelEducation HendersonCounty Somecollege,nodegree 8 Education 10 Construction 14 Master'sdegree 63 Professional&TechnicalServices 16 ManagementofCompanies 18 Doctoralorprofessionaldegree 89 Information 21 PublicAdministration 29 Associate'sdegree 114 WholesaleTrade RealEstate 31 32 Postsecondarynondegreeaward 159 Manufacturing Transportation&Warehousing 37 45 Bachelor'sdegree 202 AdminServices FinanceandInsurance 54 65 Lessthanhighschool 340 Source:GeographicSolutions,onlineadvertisedjobs,May2014April2015 Intermsofjobdemandbylevelofeducation,58percentofonline advertisedjobsrequiredahighschooldiplomaorequivalentorless (Figure36).PositionsrequiringaBachelor'sdegreecomprised thirteenpercentoftheannualaverageadvertisements. Accommodations&FoodServices RetailTrade HealthCare 84 198 294 Source:GeographicSolutions,onlineadvertisedjobs,May2014April2015 There are 33 occupations that averaged ten or more monthly advertisements for positions in Henderson County (Table 11). A cursory examination of the presence of postsecondary programs that meet the basic requirements for those occupations, revealed onlytwo;physicians,surgeonsandoccupationaltherapists,didnot haveprogramsintheimmediatearea.seeappendixtable19fora list of Blue Ridge Community College completions by program. Highschooldiplomaorequivalent 530 EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage33of52

Table11 AverageMonthlyJobOpenings OccupationsAveraging10orMorePositionsAdvertisedOnline HendersonCounty Occupation Avg.JobOpenings TypicalEntrylevelEducation AreaPostSecondaryProgramsOffered RegisteredNurses 65 Associate'sdegree BRCCABTECH:AssociateDegreeNursing RetailSalespersons 51 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired NursingAssistants 47 Postsecondarynondegreeaward ABTECH FirstLineSupervisorsofRetailSalesWorkers 44 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired Physicians, Surgeons 41 Doctoralorprofessionaldegree None LaborersandFreight,Stock,andMaterialMovers,Hand 40 Less thanhighschool NotRequired HeavyandTractorTrailerTruckDrivers 39 Postsecondarynondegreeaward ABTECHCaldwellCCPartnership CustomerServiceRepresentatives 30 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired CombinedFoodPreparationandServingWorkers 28 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired FirstLineSupervisorsofFoodPreparationandServingWorkers 21 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired Managers,AllOther 20 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired Cashiers 19 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired OccupationalTherapists 18 Master'sdegree None HeatingandAirConditioningMechanicsandInstallers 18 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired WaitersandWaitresses 18 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired MedicalandHealthServicesManagers 17 Bachelor'sdegree Wingate:MBAHealthCareManagement,UNCAHealthandWellness LicensedPracticalandLicensedVocationalNurses 17 Postsecondarynondegreeaward ABTECH Driver/SalesWorkers 17 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired PersonalCareAides 16 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired GeneralandOperationsManagers 16 Bachelor'sdegree Wingate:MBA,UNCA MerchandiseDisplayersandWindowTrimmers 15 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired LightTruckorDeliveryServicesDrivers 14 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired ExecutiveSecretariesandExecutiveAdministrativeAssistants 14 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired Carpenters 13 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired StockClerks,SalesFloor 13 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired PhysicalTherapists 12 Doctoralorprofessionaldegree WCU SalesManagers 12 Bachelor'sdegree WingateMBA,UNCA,Montreat MedicalAssistants 11 Postsecondarynondegreeaward BRCC:MedicationAide,NurseAid,MedicalOffice,ABTECH MaidsandHousekeepingCleaners 11 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired Tellers 11 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired NursePractitioners 11 Master'sdegree WCU Janitorsand Cleaners,ExceptMaidsandHousekeepingCleaners 10 Lessthanhighschool NotRequired DemonstratorsandProductPromoters 10 Highschooldiplomaorequivalent NotRequired Sources:GeographicSolutions,onlineadvertisedjobs,May2014April2015,USBureauofLaborStatistics,PostSecondaryprogramsbyauthor EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage34of52

Business-Personal Property Values by Industry An analysis was conducted of the County s FY 2015 Business PersonalProperty(BPP)valuesbyindustrysector.BPPcontributes 6.6 percent of the County s tax base. The analysis included 2,950 recordstotaling$880,297,930;whichrepresents88percentofthe totalbbpvalueinthecounty.theresultsindicatetherelativefiscal contributionsofeachindustrysector. Manufacturing accountedfor $606.3 million, 68.9 percent oftotal BPPvalueanalyzed(Figure37)or60.7percentoftheCounty stotal BBP.The secondhighestindustry, RetailTrade, accountedforfive percentoftotalbbp.oftwentymajorindustrysectors,eightsectors eachaccountedforlessthanonepercentofthetotalbpp. The average FY 2015 BPP value per record in the County is $298,406.Typically representing a single location, a record may have more than one physical site, such as a single grocery store brandoperatinginmultiplelocations.amongindustrysectors,the highest average BPP value per record in the County is Manufacturing;averaging$3.3millionperrecord(Figure38).Two othersectorsreachanaveragebppvalueabove$1million;mining &QuarryingandUtilities. A comparison of the oneyear change in total BPP values from FY 2014toFY2015showsManufacturingresponsibleforanincrease of $79.6 million; nearly double the total increase from the remainingsixteenindustrysectorsthatexperiencedgrowth(figure 39).Twosectors,RetailTradeandFinance&Insurance,declinedin total value over the period, $10.5 million and $8.4 million respectively. Finally, an examination of only newly listed records in FY 2015 showsthemanufacturingsectortopsthelistwithanewbppvalue of $8.7 million (Figure 40). Utilities places second with new BPP valueof&7.4million. An estimate of the total tax contributions of five key economic activitiesinthecountycanbefoundonpage48. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage35of52

Figure37 TotalBusinessPersonalPropertyValuesbyIndustry FY2015HendersonCounty Figure38 AverageValueperRecord* BusinessPersonalPropertyValuesbyIndustry FY2015HendersonCounty *Arecordmayrepresentmorethanonephysicalestablishment. Sources:HendersonCountyTaxAssessor soffice Sources:HendersonCountyTaxAssessor soffice EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage36of52

Figure39 OneYearValueChange(FY2014toFY2015) BusinessPersonalPropertyValuesbyIndustry HendersonCounty Figure40 NewRecordsFY2015 BusinessPersonalPropertyValuesbyIndustry HendersonCounty Sources:HendersonCountyTaxAssessor soffice Sources:HendersonCountyTaxAssessor soffice EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage37of52

Assessment of Key Economic Activities Baseontheirrelativesize,growth,localuniquenessorcontributing role, five key economic activities were selected for deeper examination and analysis of economic impact. The five are manufacturing,healthcare,agribusiness,tourism, andpopulation inmigration. A separate economic impact analysis was conducted for each key economicactivity. 6 Briefly,theanalysismeasurestheuniquedollar flows generated by each activity as it works its way through the County seconomy. Definitions Direct:theinitialactivity.Thiscanbejobsinaspecificindustry(such as for manufacturing or health care), spending (such as tourist spending),orsales(suchasfarmreceiptsorthevalueofhousehold construction). 6 ImpactscalculatedviaIMPLAN economicmodeling,whichisaninput outputmodelthatiscomprisedofsoftwareandregionaldatasets.the overridingobjectiveofthemodelistomeasurethefulleconomicimpact toalocationasaresultofaspecificeconomicactivity.themodelisbuilt uponamatrixdetailingtheinputoutputrelationshipsamongindustries andconsumersandtracksnewspendingthoughthelocaleconomy.the primarymatrixstructureisderivedfromthenationalbureauofeconomic Analysis snationalbenchmarkinputoutputmodel. Supported:thesecondarylocalresultscausedbytheinitialactivity. Suchaspurchasesfromlocalsupplierstosatisfytheinitialactivity andpurchasesbyhouseholdsasaresultofincreasedincomes. JobsMultiplier:Thenumberofjobs(usuallyaproportionofajob) generated by the initial direct activity. The measure shows how muchtheinitialactivityimpactstherestofthelocaleconomy.itis determinedbytheparticularmixoflocalindustriesandhouseholds andtheirinteractionwiththedirectactivity.ajobsmultiplierof1.5 means0.5ofajobissupportedlocallyfromtheactivityoftheone directjob. Afewnotesofcaution: Because of differences in definitions and availability of supporting data, the input formats used to determine the impacts are not entirely uniform. With differing data sources the issues of comparability and reliability are raised. In each case, given availability,themostreliabledatasetswereusedanddocumented. All data were either provided by an impartial third party (usually governmental)orindependentlyconfirmed. There are many supportive and causal linkages between the key economic activities in Henderson County; so caution should be exercised in viewing each in isolation. Many economic activities nourishorsupportanother.afewready,yetincomplete,examples; the Sierra Nevada brewery is both a manufacturer and a tourist attraction,manynewresidentsareattractedtotheareaastourists, thepresenceandproductionofagribusinesscanbeusedtoattract touristsorsupplymanufacturers,newresidentsbecometheusers ofhealthcarefacilitiesandsimilarlyhealthcarefacilitiescanserve EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage38of52

as important amenities to attract new residents. The existence of the numerous connections and linkages between key economic activitiesdemonstrateeconomicbalanceandsustainability. Manufacturing Manufacturing currently employs 5,312, is the second largest industry in the County, accounting for 16 percent of total employment. There are 138 manufacturing establishments in the County, five percent of all business establishments. The average weekly wage at $965 is 42 percent above the overall County average. It s a mistake to pool all manufacturing into a single homogeneousgroup.thereareatleast19differentmanufacturing subcategoriesrepresentedinthecounty;eachproducingdifferent products, employing different production processes and serving different markets. Manufacturing areas in which the County is particularlystrongaretransportationequipment,textiles,plastics, Lighting Fixtures, Paper and Fabricated Metal Products. Some examples of the high degrees of local specialization (DLS) as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Henderson County smanufacturingsubsectors;textilemills(14.3),paper(5.7), Plastics(4.6)andTransportationEquipment(3.3). Industrial parcels, a rough representation of manufacturing, paid $1,592,338intaxestoHendersonCountyin2014. Over the last 10 years, manufacturing employment in the County declined steadily until 2009 then switched to positive gains in the five most recent years (Figure 41). Over the last five years manufacturinghasgrownbyanannualrateofonepercent,adding anaverageof51newpositionseachyear. Figure41 ManufacturingEmployment HendersonCounty Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 ManuafacturingEmployment Trendline 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Resultsoftheeconomicimpactanalysis 7 showthatthe5,669direct manufacturingjobssupportanother4,652jobsinthecounty(each manufacturing job supports another 0.8 job) (Table 12). The total economic impact of manufacturing equals 10,321 jobs. The direct 7 Thedirectmanufacturingimpactincludedthe5,312jobsreportedbythe NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce,andanadditional357 announcedmanufacturingjobs,whichhaveyettobeincludedinthepublic reports.thejobswereallocatedacrossthe19manufacturingindustry classificationsrepresentedinthecounty. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage39of52

jobs have an average weekly wage of $965, while the supported jobshaveanaverageweeklywageof$711. Table12 ManufacturingEconomicImpactSummary HendersonCounty Jobs AverageWeekly Wage(weighted) Direct 5,669 $965 Supported 4,652 $711 Total 10,321 $850 Source:Author scalculations,implan, NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce other medical parcels paid $489,673; bringing the total to $1,093,475intaxespaidtoHendersonCountyin2014. Over the last ten years annual job growth in Health Care has averaged 2.2 percent, or 112 new jobs, although 2006 and 2014 experienced minor declines (Figure 42). Among Health Care subsectors,hospitalshaveprovidedthemostnewjobs(52percent) anddeliveredthesteadiestgrowth(figure43). Figure42 HealthCareEmployment HendersonCounty 6,000 5,000 HealthCareEmployment Trendline HealthCare HealthCarecurrentlyemploys5,843,isthelargestindustryinthe Countyandaccountsfor17percentoftotalemployment.Thereare 234 health care establishments in the County; eightpercent of all business establishments. Health Care is comprised of three main subsectors;hospitalswith42percentoftheindustry semployment, Ambulatory Services with 30 percent, and Nursing & Residential Care Facilities with the remaining 28 percent. The average weekly wage at $835 is 23 percent above the overall County average. However,wagesamongthethreesubsectorsdiffersignificantly.At $1,009 per week, Hospital wages are the highest, Ambulatory Servicesare$857,andNursing&ResidentialCareFacilitiesare$551 perweek;whichis19percentbelowthecountyaverage. WhilesomeHealthCareoperationsaretaxexempt;LongTermCare facilitiespaid$603,802intaxestohendersoncountyin2014.and 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage40of52

Figure43 HealthCareEmploymentbySubsector HendersonCounty Source:NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Hospitals Ambulatory Services Nursing& ResidentialCare Facilities 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Resultsoftheeconomicimpactanalysisshowthatthe5,843direct Health Care jobs support another 3,070 jobs in the County (each healthcarejobsupportsanother0.5job)(table13).together,the totaleconomicimpactofhealthcareequals8,913jobs.thedirect jobs have an average weekly wage of $852, while the supported jobshaveanaverageweeklywageof$634. Table13 HealthCareEconomicImpactSummary HendersonCounty AverageWeekly Jobs Wage(weighted) Direct 5,843 $852 Supported 3,070 $634 Total 8,913 $777 Source:Author scalculations,implan, NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce AgriBusiness Forthisanalysis,AgriBusinessincludesthenetworkofagricultural producers, packers, shippers, chemical & fertilizer suppliers, and otherdirectagricultureservices,aswellashiredandmigrantlabor. 8 Asnotedearlier,coreagricultureproductionoperationstypicallydo not report employment and wages in the same manner and regularityasotherindustries.additionallythebroaderagribusiness definitionincludesadiversityofbusinesstypesandoperationsthat fallacrossnumerousstandardindustryclassifications. To measure yeartoyear trends in Henderson County, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis s Farm Cash Receipts & Income data 8 Sourceforspecificagribusinessindustryidentification,MarkWilliams, ExecutiveDirector,AgribusinessHendersonCounty EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage41of52

was used. 9 Although the data does not represent the entire Agri Businessnetwork,itshouldprovideanimpartialannualindicatorto gaugeagriculturetrends.overthelasttenyearstherehasbeena significantamountofyeartoyearvolatilityinfarmcashreceipts& Income;annualswingsrangingfromanincreaseof44percenttoa declineof45percent(figure44).however,thelastfiveyearshave exhibited a more stable degree of variation; averaging an annual declineof2.2percent.in2013farmcashreceipts&incometotaled $101,484,000inHendersonCounty. Figure44 FarmCashReceipts&Income HendersonCounty $160,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 FarmCashReceipts&Income Trendline 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:USBureauofEconomicAnalysis 9 Themeasureconsistsofthefollowingitems:thecashreceiptsfromfarm marketingofcropsandlivestock;thereceiptsfromotherfarmrelated activities,includingrecreationalservices,salesofforestproducts,and customfeedingservicesperformedbyfarmoperators;thevalueofhome consumption,whichisthevalueofthefarmproductionsproducedand consumedonfarms;thegrossrentalvalueoffarmdwellings.andthe paymentstofarmersunderseveralfederalgovernmentfarmsubsidy programs. Data from three sources was combined to measure AgriBusiness fulleconomicimpactinhendersoncounty;1)industryemployment of local businesses identified as participating in the agribusiness network,2)totalfarmcashreceipts&incometocapturethevalue offarmproduction,and3)localspendingbymigrantlabor. 10 Results of the economic impact analysis show that Agribusiness employs 2,923 direct jobs and support another 1,349 jobs in the County(eachAgribusinessjobsupportsanother0.5job)(Table14). ThetotaleconomicimpactofAgribusinessequals4,272jobs.The direct jobs have an average weekly wage of $515, while the supportedjobshaveanaverageweeklywageof$644. Table14 AgriBusinessEconomicImpactSummary HendersonCounty AverageWeekly Jobs Wage(weighted) Direct 2,923 $515 Supported 1,349 $644 Total 4,272 $556 Source:Author scalculations,implan, NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce 10 PersonneloftheNorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce,Divisionof EmploymentSecurityprovidedmigrantworkernumbers,workperiodsand wageestimatesforhendersoncounty.migrantworkerswerenotincluded aspartofagribusinessdirectemploymentinthecounty. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage42of52

Tourism The trend in local tourist spending can be observed in Henderson County s Room Tax Revenues (Figure 45). Revenues in Fiscal Year 1314totaledonemilliondollars,whichwas11.2percentabovethe previous year. Over the last ten years, revenues advanced by an averageof10.1percent;althoughtwoyearsexperienceddeclines; down 10.8 percent in 0607, and down 11.7 percent in 0809. Revenuesareupineachoffivemostrecentyears,and1415ison pacetoexceedtheyearbefore. Another indicator of local tourist spending is the U.S. Travel Association straveleconomicimpactmodel(teim),whichprovides annual travel expenditures for Henderson County. 11 Travel expenditurestotaled$233.3millionin2013accordingtothemost recentreport,representinga6.8percentincreaseover2012(figure 46).Overthelasttenyearstravelexpenditureshaveincreasedby anaverageannualrateofthreepercent. Figure45 RoomTaxRevenues HendersonCounty $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 RoomTaxRevenues Trendline 0304 0405 0506 0607 0708 0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415* *ThroughMarch2015 Source:HendersonCountyTDA Figure46 TravelExpenditures(millions) HendersonCounty Through March 9months $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 TravelExpenditures Trendline 11 TheannualdataispreparedfortheNorthCarolinaDepartmentof Commerceandisavailableatwww.nccommerce.com/tourism/research. $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:USTravelAssociation EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage43of52

MeasuringTourism simpactisnotasstraightforwardasmeasuring mostothereconomicactivities.manyindustriescloselyassociated with tourism, such as Food Services or Arts, Entertainment & Recreation also serve local residents and thus their employment can t be ascribed solely to tourist spending. As an alternative to usingemploymentdata,theannualtravelexpendituresreportedby the U.S. Travel Association was used to calculate the impact of tourismspendinginthecounty. 12 Thismethodalsoprovidesresults thataremethodologicallyconsistentandgenerallycomparablewith theanalysesconductedoftheotherkeyeconomicactivities. Resultsoftheeconomicimpactanalysisshowsthattouristspending directly funds 2,506 local jobs and supports another 667 in the County(eachtourismjobsupportsanother0.3job)(Table15).The totaleconomicimpactoftourismequals3,173jobs.thedirectjobs have an average weekly wage of $367, while the supported jobs haveanaverageweeklywageof$634. Table15 TourismEconomicImpactSummary HendersonCounty AverageWeekly Jobs Wage(weighted) Direct 2,506 $367 Supported 667 $634 Total 3,173 $423 Source:Author scalculations,implan, NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce AnnualPopulationInMigration Asnotedearlier,inmigrationofnewresidentsisthesolesourceof net population growth in Henderson County. This trend has been documentedoverthelasttenyears(figure47)andisexpectedto continuegoingforward. Althoughnotanindustrybyitself,theadditionalspendingbynew residentsandresultingexpansionofthehousingstockareeconomic activities which fund direct and supportive employment in the County. 12 Thereported$233.3millionwasallocatedacross26touristspending categoriesbasedonteim spublishedmethodology,hendersoncounty TDADestinationResearch&StrategicDirectionNovember,2013byYoung Strategies,Inc.andLongwoodsTravelUSA,2013AshevilleVisitors Report,courtesyofAshevilleConventionandVisitorsBureau. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage44of52

Figure47 AnnualSourceofPopulationChange* HendersonCounty 2,700 2,200 1,700 1,200 700 DomesticMigration InternationalMigration NaturalIncrease paid to the County. This ignores the ongoing tax impacts of householdspending,notedbelow. Results ofthe economic impact analysis show annual inmigration funds506 jobsdirectlyandsupportssupportanother276jobsin the County (each direct job supports another 0.5 job) (Table 16). Together,thetotaleconomicimpactofannualinmigrationequals 782 jobs. The direct jobs have an average weekly wage of $672, whilethesupportedjobshaveanaverageweeklywageof$657. Between the two activities; new home construction accounts for 586annualjobs,andnewresidentspendingtheremaining214. 200 (300) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Noestimatepublishedforyear2000 Source:U.S.CensusBureau Two activities comprise the inputs usedto measure the economic impactoftheannualinmigrationofnewresidentsintohenderson County; new home construction and additional household spending. 13 Althoughabroadestimate,additionalnewhomeconstructionina year attributed to new residents would lead to $298,273 of taxes 13 Thefiveyearaveragenewresidentialpermitvaluebasedondatafrom thehendersoncountypermitdivision,allocatedacrossestimated replacement,existingandnewresidentdemand.expectedhousehold spendingderivedfromuscensusbureau;ageadjustedtoconsumer expenditurecategorieswithdatafromtheusbureauoflaborstatistics. Unlike other key economic activities examined; inmigration has a cumulative effect that is not included in the above impact calculations. New home construction impacts are measured annually, similar to other industry activities, but the new resident spending is expected to be ongoing. That is, the 214 local jobs supportedfromtheadditionalspendingbynewresidentsinyear1 should continue into year 2; the impacts accumulating overtime (Figure 48). Eventually, with continued mobility and deaths the spendingimpactswilldegrade;butitisimportanttoacknowledge the longterm aggregate economic dimension of new residents spending. As such, the annual impacts reported here clearly underestimate the true continuing economic contribution of new residents. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage45of52

Table16 InMigrationEconomicImpactSummary HendersonCounty AverageWeekly Jobs Wage(weighted) Direct 506 $672 Supported 276 $623 Total 782 $657 Source:Author scalculations,implan, NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce Figure48 JobsSupportedbyInMigration OverMultiplesYears 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 NewResidentSpendingYear3 NewResidentSpendingYear2 NewResidentSpendingYear1 AnnualNewHomeConstruction 214 214 214 600 214 214 214 400 200 568 568 568 0 Year1 Year2 Year3 Source:Author scalculations,implan EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage46of52

SummaryofEconomicImpacts Together the analyses provide a unique means to objectively compare the economic impacts of each activity. While inputs and input sources differed among activities, their dollar and employmentcontributionswerealltrackedandmeasuredusingthe samemethodologyastheyflowedthroughthe HendersonCounty economy. The results provide a straightforward and quantifiable benchmarkfromwhichtovaluetheeconomiccontributionsofeach activity. Overall, Manufacturing activities contributes the most total and supported jobs, has thehighest wagesbothdirect and supported, and has the top job multiplier (Figures 49, 50 and Tables 17, 18). HealthCare,Agribusiness,andinmigrationallsharethesamejob multiplier;0.5.wagesforsupportedjobsarehigherthandirectjob wagesinbothagribusinessandtourism. Table17 SummaryofEconomicImpacts HendersonCounty Jobs WeeklyWage (weighted) Direct Supported Total Direct Supported Average Manufacturing 5,669 4,652 10,321 $965 $711 $850 HealthCare 5,843 3,070 8,913 $852 $634 $777 Agribusiness 2,923 1,349 4,272 $515 $644 $556 Tourism 2,506 667 3,173 $367 $634 $423 InMigration(annual) 506 276 782 $672 $623 $657 Source:Author scalculations,implan, NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce Figure49 AnnualDirect&SupportedJobsbyKeyEconomicActivity HendersonCounty 6,000 5,669 5,843 5,000 4,652 Direct Supported 4,000 3,000 3,070 2,923 2,506 2,000 1,000 1,349 667 506 276 0 Manufacturing HealthCare Agribusiness Tourism InMigration (annual) Source:Author scalculations,implan EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage47of52

Figure50 AverageWeeklyWage(weighted)byKeyEconomicActivity HendersonCounty $1,000 Source:Author scalculations,implan, NorthCarolinaDepartmentofCommerce Table18 JobMultipliersbyKeyEconomicActivity HendersonCounty Manufacturing 1.8 HealthCare 1.5 Agribusiness 1.5 Tourism 1.3 InMigration(annual) 1.5 Source:Author scalculations,implan $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $965 $711 $852 $672 $634 $644 $634 $623 $515 $367 Direct Supported Manufacturing HealthCare Agribusiness Tourism InMigration (annual) EstimatedTaxImpacts Comparativeestimatesofthetotaltaxcontributionsofeachactivity were conducted via economic modeling. As with the employment impacts,thetaximpactsarederivedbymeasuringtheexpectednet effects generated in the Henderson County economy by each activity. Major sources of taxes are sales, income, property, and both employee and employer contributions to social insurance programs (social security, survivors insurance, disability insurance, etc.). The model aggregates the impacts into Federal tax contributions and State & Local tax contributions. Due to the complexities of tax transfers between the State & Local entities (county and municipality), the model does not allow separate reportingatthestateandlocallevels. In terms of total tax dollars generated, Manufacturing has the greatest impact, with a total annual estimated contribution of $267.9 million; $122.4 million in State & Local taxes and $145.5 million in Federal taxes (Figure 51 and Table 19). Health Care has thesecondlargesttotaltaxcontributionof$135.1million,followed by AgriBusiness at $66.5 million and Tourism at $32.9 million. In migrationcontributes$6.7millionintaxesannually. As a proportion of the total estimated taxes generated by HendersonCounty seconomy,manufacturingisthetopcontributor amongthefivekeyactivities;responsiblefor26percentofthetotal andnearlyathirdofstate&localtaxes(figure52andtable20). Health Care contributes 13.1 percent of taxes, followed by Agri Business at 6.5 percent and Tourism at 3.2 percent. Inmigration contributes 0.7 percent of the County s total taxes generated annually. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage48of52

Figure51 EstimatedTaxTotalImpactsbyKeyEconomicActivity HendersonCounty $160M $145.6M Figure52 EstimatedTaxTotalImpactsbyKeyEconomicActivity asaproportionofhendersoncounty stotalannualtaxcontribution 35% 32.9% $140M $120M $100M $80M $122.4M $93.8M State&LocalTaxContribution FederalTaxContribution 30% 25% 20% 22.1% State&LocalTaxContribution FederalTaxContribution $60M $40M $20M Source:Author scalculations,implan Table19 EstimatedTaxTotalImpactsbyKeyEconomicActivity HendersonCounty $M $41.4M State&LocalTax Contribution $34.7M $31.8M $13.9M FederalTax Contribution $19M $2.4M TotalTax Contribution Manufacturing $122,400,742 $145,576,458 $267,977,200 HealthCare $41,350,248 $93,848,075 $135,198,323 AgriBusiness $31,847,781 $34,734,249 $66,582,030 Tourism $13,908,133 $19,017,050 $32,925,183 InMigration(annual) $2,375,425 $4,340,306 $6,715,731 Source:Author scalculations,implan $4.3M Manufacturing HealthCare AgriBusiness Tourism InMigration (annual) Source:Author scalculations,implan Table20 EstimatedTaxImpactsbyKeyEconomicActivity asaproportionofhendersoncounty stotalannualtaxcontribution State&LocalTax Contribution FederalTax Contribution TotalTax Contribution Manufacturing 32.9% 22.1% 26.0% HealthCare 11.1% 14.2% 13.1% AgriBusiness 8.6% 5.3% 6.5% Tourism 3.7% 2.9% 3.2% InMigration(annual) 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% Source:Author scalculations,implan 15% 10% 5% 0% 11.1% 14.2% 8.6% 5.3% 3.7% 2.9% 0.6% Manufacturing HealthCare AgriBusiness Tourism InMigration (annual) 0.7% EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage49of52

StrategicImplications Acomprehensiveeconomicdevelopmentstrategywouldincludean indepthevaluationofthecounty sphysical assets; includingsuch things as infrastructure and the availability of buildings and sites. However, the finding of this economic assessment does contain solidstrategicimplications. Cleary, Manufacturing outshines the other four key activities in termsofitsemploymentimpact,wagesandtaxesgenerated.ona strict returnoninvestment basis Manufacturing promises the strongestreturns.allthingsbeingequal,thefindingswouldsupport policy benefiting the growth and retention of Manufacturing. Additionally, beyond its strong economic returns, Manufacturing hasarobustcurrentpresenceinthelocaleconomy;anadvantage over many counties with weak Manufacturing sectors, who are strugglingtoattractorrebuildlosses. While Manufacturing earns the highest relative scores among the five key activities, the results should not be taken to degrade the economic contributions of the other four. Health Care, Agri Business,TourismandInMigrationeachsignificantlyandpositively impact the Henderson County economy. Each has demonstrated itselfasaviable,establishedleadingbusinesssector.andbecause the assessment did not consider noneconomic factors such as heritage or qualityoflife, there are likely other rationales that couldaddweighttosupportingtheseactivities. Theassessmentalsorevealedfactorsthatsuggesttheneedtotake strongactions.subparemploymentandwagegrowtharetroubling indicators. A disproportionally aging population and growing reliance on nonwage income can diminish future economic prospects.therapidgrowthofoutcommutingmaysignalalackof opportunitiesinthecounty.uncorrectedthecountymayslipinto becomingabedroomcommunity,dependentonoutsideforces. In all the assessment points to the need for actions that support quality job creation. Policies designed to attract and retain well paying jobs have the potential to resolve many of the economic weaknessesinthecounty. EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage50of52

Appendix Table21 BlueRidgeCommunityCollege Completions2013 ProgramTitle Associate's degree Awardofatless than2 academicyears Awardofless than1academicyear Total Completions LiberalArtsandSciences,GeneralStudiesandHumanities 198 2 200 VehicleMaintenanceandRepairTechnologies 13 3 36 52 RegisteredNursing,NursingAdministration,NursingResearchandClinicalNursing 36 36 BusinessAdministration,ManagementandOperations 17 1 15 33 AmericanSignLanguage 11 11 22 AppliedHorticultureandHorticulturalBusinessServices 2 16 18 CosmetologyandRelatedPersonalGroomingServices 3 13 16 AlliedHealthDiagnostic,Intervention,andTreatmentProfessions 9 6 15 CriminalJusticeandCorrections 15 15 TeacherEducationandProfessionalDevelopment,SpecificLevelsandMethods 14 1 15 AccountingandRelatedServices 5 8 13 Cosmetology/Cosmetologist,General 3 10 13 FireProtection 3 2 5 10 ElectricalEngineeringTechnologies/Technicians 4 5 9 PrecisionMetalWorking 1 1 6 8 BusinessOperationsSupportandAssistantServices 7 7 MechanicalEngineeringRelatedTechnologies/Technicians 6 6 ComputerSystemsNetworkingandTelecommunications 5 5 DesignandAppliedArts 2 3 5 Heating,AirConditioning,VentilationandRefrigerationMaintenanceTechnology 1 4 5 InformationScience/Studies 1 4 5 Linguistic,Comparative,andRelatedLanguageStudiesandServices 4 4 ComputerandInformationSciences,General 3 3 EnvironmentalScience 1 2 3 Marketing 3 3 NailTechnician/SpecialistandManicurist 3 3 ComputerProgramming 1 1 2 PlumbingandRelatedWaterSupplyServices 2 2 Film/VideoandPhotographicArts 1 1 HumanDevelopment,FamilyStudies,andRelatedServices 1 1 EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage51of52

Total 361 23 146 530 Source:NationalCenterforEducationStatistics Firm Profile SYNEVAEconomicsLLCisaprivateconsultancywhoseexpertiseis assistingpublicandprivatedecisionmakerswithlocalandregional economicanalysis.synevaeconomicllc svalueisprovidingclear and insightful information to help clients make knowledgeable, efficientandeffectivedecisions. Recent projects include economic impact analyses for major infrastructure projects, airports, industry relocations, and residentialandcommercialdevelopments.thefirmhasconducted industrytargetandclusterevaluationsforcommunitiesin20states. SYNEVA Economics has provided workforce assessments throughout the southeast, site selection evaluations for food manufacturers and distribution centers, plus conducted dozens of communityassessmentsacrosstheu.s. Forcompletelistingofprojectsandcurrentactivitiesvisit www.syneva.com ContactInformation: TomTveidt ResearchEconomist tom@syneva.com 828.734.5021 SYNEVAEconomics,LLC POBox885 AshevilleNC28802 www.syneva.com EconomicAssessmentReportofHendersonCountyNCPage52of52