Effective Strategies for Recruiting Millennial Students Royall & Company June 24, 2015
Agenda 1:30 p.m. Welcome 1:45 p.m. The Enrollment Landscape 2:15 p.m. The New Era of Search 3:00 p.m. Break 3:15 p.m. Building an Application Strategy 4:00 p.m. Managing Yield 4:45 p.m. Wrap-up
Dedicated exclusively to working with colleges and universities to achieve their enrollment and financial goals through tested direct marketing strategies Student Recruitment Financial Aid Optimization Advancement Higher education focus since 1989 Undergraduate and graduate Richmond, VA/Minneapolis, MN Staff of 350+ experts Partner with 350+ institutions Client retention rate of 96%
Some of Royall s 350+ relationships
The Enrollment Landscape: Trends Impacting Higher Education Al Newell Enrollment Management Consultant
Changes in high school graduates 2003-2027 3,300,000 3,200,000 3,100,000 3,089,951 3,165,069 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,873,188 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Changes in high school graduates 2013-2027 West Grows 5.6% 407 Colleges Midwest Declines 5.7% 543 Colleges Northeast Declines 7.1% 515 Colleges South Grows 14.0% 720 Colleges Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
National changes in high school graduates by ethnicity 2013-2027 1 0 36.29% 41.28% 0 0 12.33% 0 4.49% 0 0-11.11% 0 White - Non Hispanic Hispanic African American Asian Pacific Islander American Indian Alaska Native Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Changes in high school graduates 2013-2027 Southern states 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 DC DE WV MS AR LA SC KY AL OK MD TN VA GA NC FL TX 2013 2027 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Changes in high school graduates 2013-2027 Northeastern states 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 VT RI NH ME CT MA NJ PA NY 2013 2027 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Changes in high school graduates 2013-2027 Midwestern states 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 IA IL IN KS MI MN MO NE OH WI 2013 2027 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Changes in high school graduates 2013-2027 Western states 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 WY ND AK SD MT HI NM ID NV OR UT CO WA AZ CA 2013 2027 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
National average yield rate since 2003 45.0% 42.7% 40.0% 35.0% 35.3% 33.2% 30.0% 25.0% 24.2% 20.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Private College Yield Public College Yield Source: IPEDS
National average yield rate since 2003 Public colleges 44.0% 42.0% 42.7% 40.0% 38.0% -22% 36.0% 34.0% 32.0% 33.2% 30.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IPEDS
National average yield rate since 2003 Private colleges 38.0% 36.0% 34.0% 35.3% 32.0% 30.0% -30% 28.0% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 24.2% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IPEDS
For every 1,000 students you admitted in 2003, you need to admit 45% more today Normalized admits per enrollment private colleges 1,550 1,450 1,459 1,350 1,250 1,150 1,050 1,000 950 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IPEDS
For every 1,000 students you admitted in 2003, you need to admit 30% more today Normalized admits per enrollment public colleges 1,350 1,250 1,286 1,150 1,050 950 1,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IPEDS
Changes in high school graduates by ethnicity South 2013 to 2023 210,000 206,261 201,050 160,000 156,244 110,000 60,000 10,000 Hispanic 25,341 28,730 Asian African American Caucasian 2,657 Public Schools Private Schools All Schools -40,000-6,711 Native American -5,211 Public Schools -90,000 Non-public high school data are not reported by ethnicity. Only total enrollment numbers are reported. Source: Knocking at the College Door, WICHE, 8 th Edition, 2012
Changes in high school graduates by ethnicity Northeast 2013 to 2023 30,000 20,000 22,469 13,715 10,000 0-10,000-20,000 Hispanic Asian African American Hispanic -4,645 Native American -304 Public Schools -13,128 Private Schools -17,151 All Schools -30,000 Asian African American Caucasian -30,279-40,000-50,000-44,363 Public Schools Non-public high school data are not reported by ethnicity. Only total enrollment numbers are reported. Source: Knocking at the College Door, WICHE, 8 th Edition, 2012
Changes in high school graduates by ethnicity Midwest 2013 to 2023 30,000 22,881 20,000 10,000 0-10,000 Hispanic Hispanic 9,839 Asian African American 4,471 Native American 579 6,730 Public Schools Private Schools -6,879 All Schools -149-20,000 Asian African American Caucasian -30,000-31,040-40,000 Public Schools Non-public high school data are not reported by ethnicity. Only total enrollment numbers are reported. Source: Knocking at the College Door, WICHE, 8 th Edition, 2012
Changes in high school graduates by ethnicity West 2013 to 2023 100,000 92,018 84,862 80,000 70,114 60,000 Asian All Schools 40,000 Hispanic Public Schools Private Schools 20,000 0 16,480 Asian African American African American 5,584 Caucasian Caucasian -2,405 Native American 2,245 Private Schools -7,156-20,000 Public Schools Non-public high school data are not reported by ethnicity. Only total enrollment numbers are reported. Source: Knocking at the College Door, WICHE, 8 th Edition, 2012
Median family income by selected characteristics, 2012 Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2013, Figure 20B
Student application patterns continue to trend toward a buyer s market Number of Applications Submitted 27% 28% 32% 33% 35% 39% 37% 42% 46% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 28% 28% 27% 27% 6+ 4-5 2-3 1 26% 26% 25% 24% 22% 21% 22% 20% 18% 18% 17% 15% 14% 14% 12% 13% 11% 10% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, The American Freshman, National Norms
Summary Insight One: Colleges and universities are facing challenging demographics as the number of high school graduates is declining nationally. Insight Two: The rate of decline is heightened in the Northeast and Midwest. Insight Three: There will be recruitment opportunities among multicultural students, particularly Hispanic students, although these students will be more expensive to enroll. Insight Four: With students applying to more colleges, yield rates are declining nationally.
The New Era of Search: How to Choose the Students You Want Alex White Senior Client Development Executive
Stop searching
Start choosing
You can choose the students you desire
Engage them and their parents
Whenever and wherever they are ready
What search used to be vs. what it can be Searching Once-a-year, onetime activity Focused on one high school class Choosing Comprehensive, year-round campaign to engage students and parents Contacts students when first available Student names from a single list source Paper mailing and one or two electronic mailings Typical result: 2% to 4% response rate Multiple list sources, segmented and targeted for right fit Persuasive, persistent marketing coupled with precise execution and data management Typical result: 8% to 15% response rate
Three keys to success How to increase Search performance and outcomes Strategic targeting Precise timing Proven tactics
Strategic targeting vs. predictive targeting Predictive Targeting Starts with identifying students who share attributes with your current enrollments Eliminates regions where you desire to grow enrollments Misses opportunities to engage students early in high school Regressive in design Strategic Targeting Starts with identifying students you most desire to enroll Leverages your past success Seeks to engage students as early as possible Aspirational in design
Knowing when and how to engage students Freshmen & Sophomores 50% Juniors 30% Seniors 20%
Pop quiz 100,000 applicants from 14 colleges across the country What percentage applied for a major different from the one listed on their search record?
Answer: The majority of students Percentage of students changing major category by class 61% 55% 48% Sophomore Junior Senior
Answer: Nearly all students! Percentage of students changing major level by class 85% 80% 74% Sophomore Junior Senior
Search is truly year-round Year-round Search will allow you to September 1. Recognize a student s evolving status and react to it in order to optimize response May November 2. Target students as soon as they become available, utilizing all sources of student data available March January
Percentage of Deposits from Search Inquiries (cumulative) Persistence in the email stream pays off 100% Search Deposits by Email Contact 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 34% of all deposits are from students responding after 5 th message 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ Email Message Number Search responder deposit data across a sampling of Royall HBCU clients
Proven tactics: 2014 Search
Key strategic element
Proven tactics: direct mail Search 2014 Search Responders HBCU Partnerships 15% 85% Email Direct Mail
Immediate engagement: Build a stronger relationship with students and parents First 30 days are critical Immediate fulfillment of offer and invitation to campus Expression of thanks to both student and parent Student email focused on academics Student email focused on affordability Student email focused on visiting campus Parent email expressing your interest in student S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Parent email focused on outcomes/career preparation
Year-Long Fulfillment Engage students when they are most interested Immediate fulfillment of offer and invitation to campus Expression of thanks to both student and parent Deepen the relationship throughout the academic year Strategically vary messages Campus Visit Affordability Academic rigor Career outcomes
Fulfillment
Optimize your Search for multiple devices
Langston University mobile activity Sophomore and junior Search program 38% 62% Responded via Other Device Responded via Mobile Device
Search builds a database of parent email addresses Parent Email Submissions Search Why are parent email addresses important? 50% 50% Students who provide parent email addresses are 45% more likely to apply, and that lift carries through to deposits. No Parent Email Provided Parent Email
Royall average response rates Program year 2014 15.0% 16.7% Overall HBCU
Search contact volume plan Search contacted by grade level Entering Classes 2014-2016 60,000 Seniors 50,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 35,000 40,000 10,000 23,000 0 Entering Class 2014 Entering Class 2015 Entering Class 2016 Juniors Seniors
Multiyear multiclass recruitment Search responders by grade level Entering Classes 2014-2016 14,000 12,000 Seniors 10,000 8,000 7,577 6,000 4,000 9,593 7,691 2,000 4,209 0 Entering Class 2014 Entering Class 2015 Entering Class 2016 Juniors Seniors Langston for EC 2014-2016
Summary Insight One: Choose the students you want. Q: What audiences do you typically engage with Search? Insight Two: Engage them as early as possible Q: When are you engaging these students? Insight Three: Invite parents into the conversation. Q: Do you have the ability to collect parent contact information? Do you communicate with parents? Insight Four: Meet students where they are. Q: How user-friendly are your communications?
Building an Application Strategy: Customizing an Approach That s Right for You Alex White Senior Client Development Executive
Can you think of some businesses that have changed in the past 15 years?
Banking? Do you go to the bank like this?
Banking? Or like this?
Movie rental? When you want to watch a movie at home, do you go here?
Movie rental? Or here?
Telephone? Used one of these recently?
Telephone? How about one of these?
Why, then, this? 1998 Paper Application 2012 Web Application
Can t the application be something more?
Application as a marketing platform
Considerations when developing your strategy 1 Audience and timing 2 Platform and technology 3 Focus on completion
Audience and timing Early Application Marketing Inviting inquiries to apply Recruiting new seniors Deadline marketing
Multichannel always your voice and brand
Langston University case study Rural setting Total undergraduate enrollment of 2,400 Partnership goal Increase enrollment Partnership commenced in late spring 2013 Custom Application Marketing seniors Web Application seniors Deposit IQ seniors
Custom Application Marketing represented a larger proportion of the 2014 enrolling class Enrollment Funnel by Source Entering Classes 2012-2014 10,000 9,000 9,096 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 6,649 2,349 5,488 5,594 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 3,070 1,182 3,190 967 647 616 3,608 479 147 3,118 96 2,502 2,524 1,926 1,744 221 500 439 299 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 Submitted Applications Admits Enrolled Other Source Royall Web Application Custom Application Marketing
Increases in quality were driven by Custom Application Marketing Average Enrolled GPA by Source Entering Classes 2013 and 2014 3.00 2.90 2.88 2.95 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.71 2.70 2.40 2.30 16.2 16.2 16.9 17.9 = ACT 2.20 2.10 2.00 SAT scores normalized to ACT Other Source Entering Class 2013 Entering Class 2014 Custom Application Marketing
Each launch of Custom Application Marketing provided value Custom Application Marketing Enrollment Funnel by Launch Entering Class 2014 Contacted Responders Submitted Applications Admits Enrolled October Launch 23,551 29% 6,737 44% 3,835 58% 2,242 4% 85 January Launch 10,239 26% 2,711 28% 1,570 50% 780 6% 46 March Launch 915 16% 145 28% 83 58% 48 33% 16
Continued incremental increases 10,000 9,000 8,000 9,096 Freshman Enrollment Funnel Entering Classes 2011-2014 7,000 6,649 6,000 5,594 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,743 2,502 2,176 1,926 3,190 1,000 551 439 616 647 0 Submitted Applications Admits Enrolled Entering Class 2011 Entering Class 2012 Entering Class 2013 Entering Class 2014
Enrollments from direct marketing investments Enrollment attributed 2014 Custom Application Marketing Web Application Total Unduplicated Enrollments Unduplicated enrollments from program 182 465 647 Estimated % that would have enrolled without program 50% 75% 68.1% Estimated incremental effect of Royall & Company programs 91 116 207
Return on direct marketing investment Freshman-year and lifetime return ROI Description Base Revenues $5 to $1 $9 to $1 Freshman-year net tuition and fees vs. direct marketing investments Freshman-year net tuition, fees, room and board vs. direct marketing investments $1,072,175 $1,738,714 $13 to $1 Lifetime net tuition and fees vs. direct marketing investments $2,521,184 $23 to $1 Lifetime net tuition, fees, room and board vs. direct marketing investments $4,388,156
Platform and technology Mobile Document Transfer
Mobile usage continues to increase Mobile Usage by Year 2010-2015 52% 56% 42% 30% 9% 2% 5 Years Ago 4 Years Ago 3 Years Ago 2 Years Ago 1 Year Ago Current
Percent of Mobile Interactions for Search and Application Programs 2015 Search and Application Programs Search 63% Application Marketing 48%
Minority populations within Royall application marketing campaigns exhibit higher mobile usage than non-minority populations Percent of Application Marketing Mobile Interactions by Ethnicity 2015 Programs Non-Minority 39.7% Minority 50.2% ** Asian Ethnicity Considered Non-Minority
Platform and technology
Royall Mobile Common Application Competitor Application
Application mobile interaction Accessed Via Mobile Device Submitted Applications Admits Enrolled 5,711 64% 3,678 37% 1,347 10% 135
Since inception, counselors have embraced SENDedu nationally
SENDedu has helped facilitate completion for students applying to Langston University 6,000 5,000 5,012 4,000 3,000 2,946 2,000 1,000 1,398 404 330 975 604 1,136 0 Counselors High Schools Students Documents Entering Class 2013 Entering Class 2014
Completion page activity 55% 52% 68% 41%
Remember the key steps in developing your strategy 1 Audience and timing 2 Platform and technology 3 Focus on completion
Additional case studies
Case Study A Private HBCU in the Southeast Urban setting Total undergraduate enrollment of 1,500 Partnership goals Increase applications Increase enrollment Partnership commenced on June 9, 2014 Custom Application Marketing seniors (new names only)
Custom Application Marketing is a revenue game changer at any time of year Custom Application Marketing Entering Class 2014 Contacted Deployed 6/9/2014 Responded Submitted Promising Candidate App Enrolled Custom Application Marketing 25,445 14.4% 3,659 53.9% 1,973 4.0% 78
Case Study B HBCU in the Southeast Urban setting Total undergraduate enrollment of 5,600 Partnership goal Increase enrollment Partnership commenced in late spring Custom Application Marketing seniors
Case Study C A test of Application Marketing Selected 30,000 names from the inquiry pool 15,000 inquiries received typical application encouragement 15,000 invited to apply through a direct marketing campaign including a custom branded application and the Common Application Application fee was not waived Letters of recommendation and essays required Test launched in December for the next fall s entering class
20% increase in first-year enrollment 2,200 First-Year Enrollment 2,169 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,808 1,800 1,700 1,600 Year before Royall First Year with Royall
7% increase in out-of-state enrollment First-Year Out-of-State Enrollment 680 672 670 660 650 640 630 630 620 610 600 Year before Royall First Year with Royall
Case Study D: Testing the Custom Application Four colleges wanted to measure the impact on enrollment outcomes Colleges varied in terms of location, size and selectivity Inquiries were randomly divided into two statistically identical groups Test Group: Inquiries invited to apply through the Custom Application program Control Group: Inquiries invited to apply through the college s traditional application program Measured the differences between the two groups at each stage of the enrollment process
Contact quantity by test group 12,000 10,000 College A 9,779 9,740 18,000 16,000 14,000 College B 15,193 15,071 8,000 12,000 6,000 10,000 8,000 4,000 6,000 2,000 4,000 2,000 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 12,000 10,000 8,000 College C 10,679 10,571 12,000 10,000 8,000 College D 10,217 10,199 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App
Applications by test group 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 College A 1,459 599 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 College B 2,124 905 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 1,000 900 800 College C 880 600 500 College D 505 700 600 400 500 400 300 200 100 358 300 200 100 134 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App
Enrollments by test group 150 125 College A 128 350 300 College B 313 100 75 50 60 250 200 150 100 164 25 50 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 180 160 College C 162 45 College D 38 140 120 100 107 30 80 60 15 15 40 20 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App 0 Control Traditional App Test Royall-Partnered App
Summary Insight One: Choose the students you want Q: What audiences do you typically include in a senior marketing program? Insight Two: Engage them whenever they re ready, wherever they are. Q: Is your application user-friendly and mobile-optimized? Insight Three: Focus on completion. Q: What processes are in place to help with completion? Do you market to high school counselors?
Managing Yield: How Best to Engage Admitted Students, Manage Human Resources and Monitor the Enrollment Environment David Cullen Senior Strategic Leader
Some of the challenges in managing yield Short season Traditional yield predictors are volatile and sometimes dated Lack of vision into strategies of competitors
Traditional responses to yield management Informative mailings Increased frequency of events Calling/emailing campaigns
What if there was a better way? Gain real-time feedback on student intentions Allocate and manage valuable staff time Deploy an early warning system for competitor practices
Campaign starts with strong personal outreach Do you plan on attending? Yes No Maybe
Second measure of success is getting the responses in time to take action First and final answers 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 65.6% 81.4% 90.9% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 45.2% 45% of response comes in week 1 20% more comes in the next two weeks More than three-fourths of response is received by week 5 More than 90% of response is received by week 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77
Real-time reporting = peace of mind Track results minute by minute Easily accessible through an online reporting portal
Quick counselor action can change behavior and increase student outcomes
Example of a maybe responder
Confidently deploy resources to impact yield Maximize and target limited resources Identify and qualify admitted students who are on the fence Refocus staff resources for maximum impact
Allocate resources based on student response Response Rate Distribution First Answer 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Employ Minimal Effort Ensure that deposit arrives. Follow up if it does not materialize. Begin melt prevention. Focus All Resources Contact students immediately to answer specific questions and influence deposit decision. Employ No Effort If they say they are not coming, there is little you can do to convince them otherwise. 40.0% 30.0% 49.7% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 25.5% 13.0% 2.2% 9.6% Already Done Yes Probably Maybe No
Quick counselor action can change behavior and increase student outcomes Response Distribution First and Final Answers 80.0% +90% +28% -47% -44% +21% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 49.7% 59.9% 40.0% 30.0% 25.5% 20.0% 10.0% 2.2% 4.2% 13.0% 16.6% 9.6% 5.1% 14.2% 0.0% Already Done Yes Probably Maybe No First Answer Final Answer
The responses you receive are predictive of yield Responses are indicative of actions Know for sure about students intentions Real-time reporting
Response is indicative of deposit behavior Deposit rate by first TM response 100.0% 90.0% 86.8% 80.0% 70.0% 71.8% 60.0% 50.0% 47.8% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 16.6% Already Done Yes Pretty Sure More Info No 0.4%
Leverage real-time analysis of non-enrolling students Leverage real-time trend analysis of where your accepted students are depositing High participation rates Real-time insights Early warning about competitor strategies Benchmarking analysis against a robust data set
High participation rate Langston University Exit survey submission 57% 43% Did Not Submit Survey Submitted Survey
Real-time views on non-enrolling students plans
Deploy an early warning system Know sooner if you are on target to reach enrollment goals Detect changes in the competitive landscape Gain insight to inform wait-list strategies Benchmark results and plan for the future
Summary Insight One: Know the intentions of your admitted students. Insight Two: The responses you receive are predictive of yield. Insight Three: Confidently deploy resources to impact yield. Insight Four: Leverage real-time analysis of non-enrolling students.
Wrap-up Al Newell Royall & Company
3 keys to ensure success Year-round search Application Marketing strategy Yield management
Questions? Thank you for joining us today. Alex White Client Development Executive Royall & Company awhite@royall.com 800.899.7227 David Cullen Senior Strategic Leader Royall & Company david@royall.com 800.899.7227 Al Newell Enrollment Management Consultant Royall & Company anewell@royall.com 800.899.7227