CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013
The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee decided: Scale back asset purchases modestly. i.e. $5 billion less per month of both Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), starting in January 2014 and probably ending late 2014 (according to Bernanke). Simultaneously enhancing FOMC expectation that it is likely to be appropriate to keep the funds rate at zero: Well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2%, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2% longer-run goal." (Bernanke) Monetary policy alignments: Low for long" message strengthened by the Fed's projections: Unemployment rate edging down slightly more over the next few years than was expected at the time of the last projections (in September). Federal funds rate is projected to remain as low, if not even a shade lower. The mix of policy accommodation is shifting towards forward guidance, relying a bit less on asset purchases. Janet Yellen fully supported the step indicating the continuation of policy. Expected impact on U.S. monetary policy and U.S. Treasuries Monetary policy Based on our forecast of the economy strengthening in 2014, we expect the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) to: Scale back asset purchases further: Probably end them by the second half of next year. Fed will maintain its elevated balance sheet for years, and will not begin raising rates until late 2015 (at the earliest), and only slowly when they begin raising rates (though highly dependent on the evolution of the economy). US Treasuries We do not see a huge move prior to year end as markets have already discounted the effect of tapering on asset prices: Focus could now shift to the January employment release, January FOMC, and 4Q 2013 data releases to see if the economy is indeed recovering at a faster pace. Rates could gradually move higher in this scenario if further tapering is announced as a large buyer is taken out of the market. No changes in core investment scenarios needed. Fed is not rushing for the exits. Monetary policy is likely to remain highly accommodative for a long time, even if the economy improves as we expect, though accommodation will gradually come to rely less on incremental asset purchases. 1
The art of tapering without spoiling markets (II) Impact on global financial markets and DeAWM investment strategy Emerging Markets Equity Tail risk has been partially removed. Given the better growth profile of China and potential for a gradual pick up in export growth across Asia, earnings growth could start to stabilize in the next few quarters. We remain neutral on EM versus DM but are looking for an entry point in the 1st half of 2014 to favor an overweight. Fixed Income The overall impact on EM fixed income should be supportive for several reasons: Likely to remove uncertainty about the start of tapering and and how it will take place. Strengthened "forward guidance" could help risk assets. Valuation of many EM fixed income assets has cheapened during the year. Nevertheless, we expect market reaction for different EM fixed income assets to diverge over the medium term: EM external debt: could benefit most amid attractive valuation and still sound fundamental development in many countries. EM local rates: after this year's spike in local yields, some markets offer decent return potential for 2014. "Carry" will be one important theme for next year. Currencies Many markets have also become more attractive in terms of valuation, but selection remains key. Developed Markets German Bunds We do not expect a complete decoupling of longer dated German government bonds from rising yields in the US. The short-end of the curve will remain at low levels given that the ECB is in a different state of its monetary cycle. The curve in the 2yr-10yr sector should continue to steepen over the medium-term. The muted market reaction is an indication that the room for rising yields in the short-run is rather limited: we stay neutral on 2Y Bunds and keep our short recommendation on 10Y Bunds. Equity Modestly positive for DM equities. Since economy is becoming more self-sustaining, corporate earnings are expected to grow. Will allow equity markets to re-focus again on improving corporate fundamentals. Confirms cyclical bias of sector strategy. Currencies Tapering signals a shift in monetary easing but the gentle pace will probably not heighten FX volatility that much. We maintain the long USD position against all major currencies and expect a sustained revaluation especially against JPY and GBP. EUR/USD is awaited to keep its recent resilience running into Q1 2014. Risk FX looks most vulnerable from here with ongoing pressure on AUD and CAD. Investment Grade Corporates We stay constructive on IG Corporates as risk sentiment has not been negatively affected by yesterday s Fed action. It turned out that the market was prepared for tapering to happen and uncertainty around the timing is now out of the way. Credit spreads are likely to continue to grind tighter and we stick to the overweight recommendation. 2
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