Inside the Markets Conference Call

Transcription

1 Inside the Markets Conference Call April 3, 2014 Presented by: Hefren-Tillotson Asset Management Meticulous Wealth Management Since 1948 Hefren-Tillotson, Inc. 308 Seventh Ave Pittsburgh, PA Ph: Fx: hefren.com Member SIPC and FINRA ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST - This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. Hefren-Tillotson does not, nor any other party, guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report or make any warranties regarding results obtained from its usage. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the Firm s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Hefren-Tillotson, Inc. and/or its officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold, or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. Upon request, Hefren-Tillotson will be pleased to disclose specific information on such positions or transactions.

2 Inside the Markets Conference Call Details Date & Time: Dial-in Numbers: Domestic: International: Elite Entry Access #: Thursday, April 3rd at 12:00pm (Please call five minutes prior to the noon start time.) A telephone playback will be available through November 6, 2013 by dialing: Domestic: International: Conference #: Webcast Link to Access Presentation Materials & Submit Questions (No Audio): Save the Date! Our next call will be held on Thursday June 19 th at 12:00pm 04/3/2014 Page 2 of 17

3 Equity Market Review S&P 500 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Taper Positive Surprises QE3 QE1 QE2 Operation Twist Negative Surprises Source: Bloomberg, Hefren-Tillotson 04/3/2014 Page 3 of 17

4 Equity Market Review Scary Chart Before Scary Chart -- After DJIA DJIA Current Period Source: Bloomberg, Hefren-Tillotson, Business Insider Here is how a popular chart appeared in many financial news outlets. Here is how the chart appears on a percentage-gain basis and after indexing the two periods to /3/2014 Page 4 of 17

5 International Equity Market Review Market Comparison (Indexed to 100) Anatomy of Instability U.S. Stocks (S&P 500) Foreign Developed Stocks (MSCI EAFE) Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) Federal Reserve Easy Money Emerging Markets Currencies Up Interest Rates Down China Source: Bloomberg, Hefren-Tillotson, Excludes Dividends Trade Deficits Budget Deficits Increased Spending Reduced Exports 04/3/2014 Page 5 of 17

6 Fixed Income Markets Yield Comparison (%) Income Options % High Yield Corporate Bonds 10-Year Treasury Yield Investment Grade Bonds High Yield Corporates Strategic Income Funds Bank Loans Equities Tax-Free Bonds Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg 04/3/2014 Page 6 of 17

7 Fixed Income Markets Yield Comparisons (%) --- Taxable vs. Tax-Free Bond Buyer Index Municipal Bond Yield 30-Year Treasury Yield Barclays High Yield Muni Yield Barclays High Yield Corp Yield Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg Source: Hefren-Tillotson 04/3/2014 Page 7 of 17

8 Currency/Commodity Markets U.S. Dollar Index DJUBS-Commodity Index Source: Bloomberg, Hefren-Tillotson 04/3/2014 Page 8 of 17

9 Growth Outlook is Brightening for the U.S. Improved Household Balance Sheets Booming Energy Production 13.5 Household Debt Service Ratio Minimum debt service payment on mortgage debt and consumer credit as a % of disposable income Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg 04/3/2014 Page 9 of 17

10 Growth Outlook is Brightening for the U.S. Shrinking Deficits Manufacturing Comeback Trade Weighted Dollar vs. Federal Budget Deficits/Surpluses Trade Weighted Dollar Federal Budget Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP US Dollar Index Federal Budget Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP Technology-driven Innovation Auto, Housing & Job Market Recovery Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg 04/3/2014 Page 10 of 17

11 Leading Indicators Highlight Global Divergences Leading Economic Indicators 11 9 Emerging Markets growth accelerated in the 2000s Growth momentum transitioned to the Developed World in Developed Markets Emerging Markets Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg 04/3/2014 Page 11 of 17

12 Risk of U.S. Recession a Low Probability 8.0% Yield Curve vs. GDP Growth 8% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.0% 2% 0.0% 0% -2.0% -2% -4.0% -6.0% A flat yield curve (short-term rates at or above long-term rates) has signaled every post-war recession. The yield curve points to stronger growth % -6% Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg 04/3/2014 Page 12 of 17

13 P/Es have Expanded to Reflect Improved Outlook S&P 500 vs Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio S&P 500 Index B Price/Earnings Ratio A S&P 500 Index Cyclically Adjusted P/E Average P/E S i 4 S i 5 Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg 04/3/2014 Page 13 of 17

14 Correction or Pause Typical at Current Stage of Bull Yrs 1-5: 20%/Anum Yrs 1-5: 13%/Anum Yrs 1-5: 28%/Anum Yrs 1-5: 22%/Anum Supporting Data 1. Record Margin Debt days without 10% correction vs. 331 day average days without 20% correction vs day average 4. Optimistic sentiment 5. Mean reversion tendencies Source: Ned Davis Research 04/3/2014 Page 14 of 17

15 Sharper Intra-Year Correction Not Unusual Calendar Year Returns Largest Intra-Year Decline For 2013 the magnitude of gains combined with modest intra-year declines were unusual Source: Strategas Research Partners 04/3/2014 Page 15 of 17

16 View Setbacks Opportunistically 8 S&P 500 Earnings Yield less 10yr Treasury Yield Stock valuations are still attractive relative to bonds Stocks Cheap vs Bonds Stocks Expensive vs Bonds Source: Hefren-Tillotson, Bloomberg 04/3/2014 Page 16 of 17

17 Better Environment for Active Management Correlations surged during the credit crisis and are now receding, which should have positive implications for active management in the years ahead. Source: Ned Davis Research 04/3/2014 Page 17 of 17