International Comparison of Housing Risk Premia



Similar documents
Derivations and Applications of Greek Letters Review and

Solving the real business cycles model of small-open economies by a sample-independent approach

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

UNIVERSITÉ PARIS I PANTHÉON-SORBONNE MASTER MMMEF

Table 1. Compound annual real returns, by type of investment, (in percent)

IT Update - August 2006

ISSeG EGEE07 Poster Ideas for Edinburgh Brainstorming

A Versatile Method for Analyzing the Influence of Track Irregularity on Vehicle-track-bridge Coupled System

e3 insights Stop interrupting me! Re-discovering the art of attraction through content marketing

Exotic Options: Pricing Path-Dependent single Barrier Option contracts

Bankruptcy law and firms' behavior

Methodological Problems in Solvency Assessment of an Insurance Company 1

Problem Solving Session 1: Electric Dipoles and Torque

Exotic Options Pricing under Stochastic Volatility

1.- L a m e j o r o p c ió n e s c l o na r e l d i s co ( s e e x p li c a r á d es p u é s ).

CONSISTENCY OF (INTERTEMPORAL) BETA ASSET PRICING AND BLACK-SCHOLES OPTION VALUATION

7th WSEAS Int. Conf. on TELECOMMUNICATIONS and INFORMATICS (TELE-INFO '08), Istanbul, Turkey, May 27-30, 2008.

Chad Saunders 1, Richard E Scott 2

Welcome to the workshop Occupational science as a theoreticalfoundation for practice in the social arena

HUT, TUT, LUT, OU, ÅAU / Engineering departments Entrance examination in mathematics May 25, 2004

Modeling the Yield Curve Dynamics

Valuing Long-Lived Assets

Chapter 8: Regression with Lagged Explanatory Variables

Why am I poor? First Nations Child Poverty in Ontario

Chapter 30: Magnetic Fields Due to Currents

A Place to Choose Quality, Affordable Health Insurance

Calculation of variable annuity market sensitivities using a pathwise methodology

Optimization of Periodic Review Inventory Model with Emergency order in Two-Echelon Supply Chain using Differential Evolution

The effect on the Asian option price times between the averaging. Mark Ioffe

Installation Precautions

Jesus Performed Miracles

2.4 Network flows. Many direct and indirect applications telecommunication transportation (public, freight, railway, air, ) logistics

HFCC Math Lab Intermediate Algebra - 13 SOLVING RATE-TIME-DISTANCE PROBLEMS

Economics Honors Exam 2008 Solutions Question 5

Outline. - The Trafo Project - 1. Introduction of GEF Ingenieur AG and Trafo Project. 2. Intregrating Renewables into the Jena District Heating System

Equity Valuation Using Multiples. Jing Liu. Anderson Graduate School of Management. University of California at Los Angeles (310)

Capacitors and inductors

Aegis Identity Software, Inc. Experts in Identity Management 100% Focused on Education

Many quantities are transduced in a displacement and then in an electric signal (pressure, temperature, acceleration). Prof. B.

Physics. Lesson Plan #9 Energy, Work and Simple Machines David V. Fansler Beddingfield High School

The Real Business Cycle paradigm. The RBC model emphasizes supply (technology) disturbances as the main source of

QUALITY OF DYING AND DEATH QUESTIONNAIRE FOR NURSES VERSION 3.2A

Chapter 13. Network Flow III Applications Edge disjoint paths Edge-disjoint paths in a directed graphs

Campus Sustainability Assessment and Related Literature

Virtual Sensors

Parametric Social Security Reforms and Saving: Evidence from Turkey

HEAT TRANSFER ANALYSIS OF LNG TRANSFER LINE

Estimation and Comparison of Chained CPI-U Standard Errors With Regular CPI-U Results ( )

An E mpir ical Analysis of Stock and B ond M ar ket Liquidity

Standardized Coefficients

Empirical heuristics for improving Intermittent Demand Forecasting

A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY MODEL FOR CLOUD-BASED SOFTWARE REJUVENATION USING DYNAMIC FAULT TREES

Morningstar Investor Return

Why Did the Demand for Cash Decrease Recently in Korea?

A Dynamic Solvency Approach for Life Insurance

Forecasting Sales: A Model and Some Evidence from the Retail Industry. Russell Lundholm Sarah McVay Taylor Randall

Cointegration: The Engle and Granger approach


Energy, Work, and Simple Machines

FLOOR OPTIONS ON STRUCTURED PRODUCTS AND LIFE INSURANCE CONTRACTS

Module 4. Single-phase AC circuits. Version 2 EE IIT, Kharagpur

Load Balancing Algorithm Based on QoS Awareness Applied in Wireless Networks

RISK PROFILES OF LIFE INSURANCE PARTICIPATING POLICIES: MEASUREMENT AND APPLICATION PERSPECTIVES

ISLAMIC BANKS PROFITABILITY IN AN INTEREST RATE CYCLE

Name: Algebra II Review for Quiz #13 Exponential and Logarithmic Functions including Modeling

RC (Resistor-Capacitor) Circuits. AP Physics C

An Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in India

Handout 3. Free Electron Gas in 2D and 1D

LYXOR ASSET MANAGEMENT THE POWER TO PERFORM IN ANY MARKET

RIG Global Growth Fiduciary Services RiverFront Investment Group, LLC


Derivative Securities: Lecture 7 Further applications of Black-Scholes and Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Sources: J. Hull Avellaneda and Laurence

Lateef Investment Management, L.P. 300 Drakes Landing Road, Suite 210 Greenbrae, California 94904

DOES TRADING VOLUME INFLUENCE GARCH EFFECTS? SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE GREEK MARKET WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO BANKING SECTOR

Applied Eq Adv-Gbl Concen Fiduciary Services Applied Equity Advisors


Current Accounts Dynamics in new EU members: Sustainability and Policy Issues

MTBF: Understanding Its Role in Reliability

Optimal investment and long run underperformance of SEO

Uniplan REIT Portfolio Fiduciary Services Uniplan Investment Counsel, Inc.

Hedging Portfolios with Short ETFs

Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Theories

The pricing analysis of reverse mortgage with redemption option

Reach Versus Competition in Channels with Internet and Traditional Retailers

Numerical Algorithm for the Stochastic Present Value of Aggregate Claims in the Renewal Risk Model

AP Calculus AB 2013 Scoring Guidelines

International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates

Transistor is a semiconductor device with fast respond and accuracy. There are two types

Heat demand forecasting for concrete district heating system

Transcription:

Innaional Compaion of Houing Rik Pmia Chi Julliad ondon School of Economic and Gac Wong Whaon School of Buin Pliminay Vion: Fo Dicuion and Ciicim Only Yiia Gu and Alxanda Infld povidd xclln ach aianc. Coponding auho: Gac Wong, 400 SH-DH, 3620 ocu Walk, Philadlphia, PA 904-6302 (25) 573 7903 wongg@whaon.upnn.du

Pliminay. Inoducion Ealy liau ugg ubanial ik-adud un o al a. (Buggman, Chn and Thibodau, Ibboon and Silgl, Hazll, Hkman and Mil) Chan, Hndho and Sand (990), uing un o U.S.-lid quiy REIT, how ha h al a ik pmium i likly o b caud by h uag of moohd, appaial houing pic daa which unda h volailiy of un. Thi pap conibu o hi dba by fi conucing a panl of houing ik pmia fo 3 dvlopd couni ov a long ampl piod (966:Q3 o 2004:Q4), and hn xploing h laionhip of h ik pmia o chang in h financial mak dph, quiy mak acivii, popy ax ym, ubanizaion and dvlopmn o zoning gulaion. By compaing h xpinc of houing mak in vaiou dvlopd couni, hi pap add o ou undanding of wha coniu h al a ik pmium. Compad o h un o quiy, al a un a laivly lil udid. On obacl i h lack of liabl anacion daa. Innaional compaion a paiculaly cac bcau of daa limiaion ouid h Unid Sa. Th dawback of im i udi of a un, howv, i hi lack of pow o diinguih among vaiou macoconomic dvlopmn ha may hav ignifican co-movmn. W fill in hi gap in h liau by xploiing a ich daa and by focuing on panl analy. Thin OECD couni a udid: Aualia, Canada, Dnmak, Fanc, Ialy, Japan, h Nhland, Noway, Spain, Swdn, Swizland, Unid Kingdom and h Unid Sa. Gmany i omid fom h pliminay ul pnd bcau of h limid availabiliy of conin daa houghou h ampl piod. 2

Pliminay 2. Eimaing h Houing Rik Pmia A. On h Saionaiy of h Pic-n Raio In pincipl, an agn could ih buy o n a hou o civ h am vic flow. Howv, ning and buying a hou a no pfc ubiu inc houhold migh div xa uiliy fom owning a hou (.g. abiliy o cuomiz h inio, pid of ownhip). Moov, popi fo n migh on avag b diffn fom popi fo al. 2 Nvhl, long-un movmn in h n lvl hould capu long-un movmn in h vic flow. Alo, Gallin (2004) find ha hou pic and n a co-ingad (i.. aionay) and ha h pic-n aio i a good pdico of fuu pic and n chang. 3 Finally, focuing on h pic-n aio i analogou o h commonly ud pic-dividnd aio o analyz h ock mak. Dno wih P and pcivly h pic and n of houing. Digading ax and dpciaion, h andad a picing laion among h vaiabl will b P [ m ( P )] = E, wh m, i h ochaic dicoun faco bwn and. 4 Iaing fowad w hav P = E m, E [ lim m, T P T ] T = 2 Th hou pic indx flc all yp of dwlling whil n nd o ovwigh mall and low qualiy dwlling. Givn ha high qualiy hou flucua mo ov h buin cycl, w would hav o conol fo buin cycl pan in h mpiical analyi. 3 No ha Gallin (2003) mpiically c h hypohi of co-ingaion bwn pic and incom uing panl-daa fo co-ingaion, ha hav bn hown o b mo powful han h imi analog. Thi impli ha h commonly ud o cocion pnaion of pic and incom would lad o onou fquni infnc. 4 Fo xampl, in h xbook C-CAPM w would hav u' ( C ) m = β β ( γ ln C ), u' ( C ) wh γ i h laiv ik avion cofficin and 0 < β < i h in-mpoal dicoun faco. 3

Pliminay 4 = =, m E wh w aumd ha h la m go o zo in xpcaion (hi anvaliy condiion baically ul ou xploiv bubbl pah fo h pic lvl). Dividing boh id by, w hav 5 = = = = 0,, m E m E P. Thi la xpion giv wo impoan mag. Fi, und vy mild gulaiy condiion, 6 h pic-n aio will b aionay, uifying on a hoical gound h mpiical finding of Gallin (2004). Scond, h pic n aio i h dicound um of fuu n gowh a and cai infomaion gading boh h fuu xpcd n gowh and, mo impoanly, h implid dicoun faco ha will b h focu of ou analyi. In h nx cion w puh hi inuiion vn fuh o back up h 5 No ha h I am uing h fac ha = = 0,, m m 6 Fo xampl, in h xbook C-CAPM w would hav = = ) ln ( C E P γ β implying ha h aionaiy of conumpion and n gowh a and h aumpion of boh i having fini cond momn would b nough o dliv a aionay pic n aio. To hi in anoh way, no ha in a wold in which n follow a dminiic pah w would hav f R P = = = 0 β wh f R i h go ik f a bwn and and I ud h fac ha [ ] f R m E, =

Pliminay (unobvd) quid a of un on houing invmn fom h obvabl pic n aio and n gowh a. B. Implid Expcd Run Th go un on houing, R, i givn by h following accouning idniy h P Rh, = P Following Campbll and Shill (988), w log-linaiz hi laion aound h ady a. Und h aumpion ha h pic-n aio i aionay, w can log-linaiz h la quaion a ( ρ ) k ρ( p l ) ( p l ) l h, = wh h, := log R h,, p := log P, l := log, l := l l, ρ := /( xp( l p)), l p i h long un avag log n-pic aio, and k i a conan. Th log pic-n aio can b hfo win (digading a conan m) a a lina combinaion of fuu n gowh, fuu un on houing and a minal valu p T T T = lim ρ ( l h, ) ρ ( p T l T ) T () = 0 l Moving o xc n gowh a, l T = l, and xc un (ik pmia) on houing, h, = h,, wh i h log al ik f a, h pic-n aio can b xpd a p l = [ l ] T ρ h, lim ρ ( p T l T ) (2) T = 0 5

Pliminay Thi qualiy ha o hold x-po fo any alizaion and hnc, hold x-an in xpcaion fo any pobabiliy mau ha i p l = = 0 E T [ l h, ] E [ lim ρ ( p T l T )] ρ (3) T Auming ha h anvaliy condiion hold (i.. uling ou h pnc of ininic bubbl7) w hav = 0 [ l ] p l = ρ E (4) h, Thi la xpion ha a aighfowad conomic inpaion: if h pic-n aio i high oady, agn ih xpc high fuu n gowh a o low fuu dicoun a. Mo impoanly h la xpion can b -aangd o xp h mak xpcaion of houing ik pmia a a funcion of h pic n aio and xpcd n gowh a Eh, = ρ E l ( p l ) = 0 = 0 ρ. Thfo, w can back up im vaiaion in ik pmia fom h im vaiaion in n gowh a and h pic n aio. In paicula, dfining wih ˆ E l h conin ima of h xpcd n gowh in piod condiional on h infomaion availabl a im, w can ima h fuu dicound am of ik pmia (l i b dnod by ˆ h, ) a 7 S Foo and Obfld (99). 6

Pliminay ˆ := ˆ ρ E l ( p l ) h, = 0 Moov, w can idnify h im innovaion in ik pmia (l i b dnod by ~ h, ) a ~ ρ. = ˆ ˆ = ˆ ˆ, ) ˆ h : ( E E h, ( E E ) l ( p l ) = 0 C. Empiical Implmnaion To conuc ˆ and h, ~, w follow Campbll (99) and compu h obciv h, xpcaion of n gowh a uing a ducd fom VAR. Conid h VAR 8 z ε = Az wh z i a n x vco of im i and A i a n x n maix of cofficin. Wihou lo of gnaliy, aum ha l i h fi vaiabl includd in z and l b a n x vco ha ha ny fo h fi lmn and zo lwh. Dnoing wih Ê, h VAR foca opao condiional on h infomaion availabl a im (baically w poxy aional xpcaion wih lina pocion in h pii of Sim), w hav ha ˆ ˆ ˆ = [ A z ] E z = A z E l ' ( ˆ ˆ ) ( ˆ ˆ ˆ ) ' [ ˆ E ˆ E z = ε E E l = A ε ] wh  a h VAR imad cofficin and εˆ a h imad idual. Thfo = 0 [ ˆ A z ] ˆ h, = ρ ' ( p l ), 8 Thi i wihou lo of gnaliy inc a VAR wih m lag can alway b win in an auo-giv fom of od on. 7

Pliminay ~ ' ( I ρ Aˆ) ˆ ε ( p h, = ha i, in ach piod w can ima (up o a conan) xpcd fuu ik pmia and innovaion o ik pmia a a funcion of obvabl vaiabl. Th vaiabl includd in ou imaion a GDP gowh a, inflaion-adud ik-f in a, log houing pic-n aio, n gowh a and a buin cycl poxy. 9 Moov, no ha inc p l ) = log( P / ), and ha ou idnificaion i ( xac up o a conan, w hav ha o implmn hi appoach mpiically w nd o know h log pic n aio only up o a conan i.. w only nd hou pic indx l ), and nal pic indx whil h xac lvl of P / i no ncay (ha i, w nd h indx o only ac h im vaiaion in n and pic). 3. Explaining h Houing Rik Pmia To inviga h vaiaion of ˆ abov, h following gion i pfomd: h, () R h = α βx h C h Ya Qua ε h, wh R h i h dmand xc un ( ˆ h ) fo couny h a im. X h a im-vaying, couny-pcific mau lad o dvlopmn of financial and quiy mak, h popy ax ym, ubanizaion and zoning gulaion which a dcibd in dail blow. C h capu any couny-pcific, non-im-vaying faco, which includ bu a no limid o iniial condiion a h a of h ampl piod,, 9 Following Hodick and Pco (997), w imad: y = g c g = 2g g _2 v wh y i GDP gowh fom qua - 5 o qua, g i h unobvd a vaiabl o capu h mooh im- vaying nd, and c h cyclical componn. Th vaianc of v i nomalizd o b /600 im h vaianc of h cyclical componn, c, a i i cuomay wih qualy daa. Thi a-pac pnaion i imad via Kalman fil and Kalman mooh. 8

Pliminay yp of udiciay ym and gogaphical locaion. 0 Th combind xplanaoy pow of h h goup of fixd ffc i laivly low (R-quad=0.07). To accoun fo ponial ial colaion in ε h, Nwy-W andad o a pod. Two vion of quaion () a hown houghou hi pap, wih and wihou h ya and qua fixd ffc. A comphniv panl daa wa compild o mau dvlopmn in h financial mak, quiy mak, dmogaphic and lad iniuion. H w dicu colaion bwn h imad ik pmia and faco ha a obu o aonabl chang in pcificaion and vaiabl dfiniion. Oh ul a availabl upon qu. Tabl how h ummay aiic of all vaiabl in h gion pnd. A. Db and Equiy Mak I i no upiing ha h iz of h banking co (laiv o GDP), which flc h dph and ophiicaion of h cdi mak, ha a ngaiv colaion wih h houing pmia (column ad 2). Th a o obain cdi i likly o duc xpcd ik. On h oh hand, wo mau of ockmak liquidiy oal valud add a a aio of GDP and h unov aio how a poiiv laionhip wih h houing ik pmia, which i omwha upiing (column 3 o 6). Two oh mau of ockmak dvlopmn, h aio of ockmak capializaion o GDP and h aio of oal quiy iu o GDP, do no hav aiically ignifican colaion wih h houing pmia. On nowohy ul in Tabl 2 i how abl and obu h colaion bwn ik pmia and mau of db and quiy mak dvlopmn a. Alhough 0 Wih h xcpion of Aualia, which oind h OECD in 97, all oh couni in ou ampl w oiginal mmb couni. A dummy conolling fo h accion da i no ignifican in any of h pcificaion howd in hi pap. 9

Pliminay h xi a poiiv colaion bwn h db and quiy mak indicao (=0.527), hi laionhip o h houing pmia m o b mo o l indpndn, a hown in column 7 o 0. I i alo wohwhil o poin ou ha non of h oh vaiabl xplod blow ha imila xplanaoy pow. B. Iniuion and Dmogaphic In all ul ha follow, w conol fo h log aio of dpoi mony bank a o GDP and h log aio of ockmak oal valu add o GDP. Rul uing log ockmak unov aio a vy imila (Tabl 3A and 4A). Th aio of fdal o local oal popy ax vnu, which poxi fo how cnalizd h ax ym i concning al a, i poiivly colad wih ik pmia (column and 2, Tabl 3). Thi i conin wih h xiing liau on how dcnalizaion pomo fficincy. Anoh iniuional diffnc w inviga i h maximum loan-o-valu (TV) aio. Alhough h maximum TV aio do no how much vaiaion ov im wihin ach couny, i ha a abl and ngaiv laionhip wih houing ik pmia (column 3 and 4). A high TV aio pumably hlp fom a mo ubanial and abl ouc of houing dmand. W xpc hi impac o diffnia by incom gowh givn h am chang in h maximum TV aio, h high h incom gowh h lag (in abolu valu) i impac hould b. Whil column 5 o 8 do how a ngaiv and ignifican inacion m (bwn GDP gowh and h maximum TV aio), h main ffc bcom l ignifican and poiiv. Thi migh b du o h lack Daa on maximum TV aio a obaind fom Tabl 2 in Almida, Campllo and iu (woking pap, 2006). 0

Pliminay of aiical pow o idnify h pci impac of a faco wih limid im vaiaion wihin couni. Th la wo column xplo on dimnion of dmogaphic uban populaion gowh. I i uncla how hi migh impac h houing ik pmia: whil ubanizaion migh imply houing dmand gowh, i migh alo indica apid dmogaphic chang ha inoduc uncainy o h mak. Ou daa how ha a high a of uban populaion gowh m o cola wih a high houing pmia. Compaing Tabl 2 and 3, mau of db and quiy mak hav aonably abl and gnally obu colaion wih h houing ik pmia. C. Dvlopmnal o Zoning Rgulaion Whil w acknowldg h difficuly o maningfully mau zoning chang a a naional lvl, w amp o capu and xplo mao chang in ach of h couni. W achd houghou govnmn publicaion, zoning manual, lgal fnc and al a building guid and cam up wih a li of gulaion ha ook ffc duing ou ampl piod. Th yp of gulaion and ou. Dcnalizaion f o whn h zoning o building applicaion poc i mo dcnalizd, ypically inoducing a high dg of vaiaion in m of zoning icivn wihin h couny. Chang wih a Social focu moly concn ih paicipaion of h gnal public o h igh of cun idn o ic dvlopmn on nvionmnal gound. A hid yp includ Simplificaion o amlining of h zoning applicaion poc. Th w hav a h momn goupd und Oh, which dv fuh udy.

Pliminay Column and 2 how val ining ul. Houing ik pmium inca wih mo dcnalizaion o ocial focu in h zoning poc. Thi i phap no upiing bcau i i mo coly o lan how o dal wih a ym ha vai fom plac o plac wihin h couny. Similaly, mo communiy paicipaion impli a mo complx gam wih play wih diffn obciv. In column h wo cofficin do no ignificanly diff fom ach oh, hfo w xpimn wih a combind mau which i h impl addiion of h wo indicao, which poduc ul which a makably imila (column 3 and 4). Cofficin of h unclaifid ( Oh ) gulaion a ignifican and ngaiv in all pcificaion. I i puzzling ha ffo o implify h ym do no m o hav any ignifican impac on h houing pmium. W hav omid hi goup fo column 5 o 8, which do no chang ou pviou concluion. 4. Concluion Th pow of hi pap div fom ou abiliy o conol fo couny-lvl fixd ffc, which abob h impac of iniial condiion and oh non-im-vaying faco, and inviga ignifican faco ha commonly impac h voluion of h houing ik pmium in diffn mak. W hav idnifid impoan ol ha financial mak dvlopmn and vaiou iniuion play, om of which dmand fuh and a mo daild udy. Th includ liquidiy in h quiy mak and diffn yp of zoning. An innaional compaion no only allow u o xplo h univaliy of laionhip bwn conomic quanii, bu i i alo imly fo h incaingly ingad global conomy. Tadiionally al a i on of h mao a which lack 2

Pliminay innaional abiag, bu wih h dvlopmn of vaiou invmn vhicl, h incad flow of global capial and libalizaion of local popy law, w a ing mo foign ownhip and dvlopmn of al a in many couni. I i indd logical o daw lon fom diffn mak by xploing h poibilii of a common, undlying mak mchanim. 3

Pliminay Rfnc Campbll, J. Y. (99):.A Vaianc Dcompoiion fo Sock Run,.Economic Jounal, 0, 57.79. Campbll, J. Y., and R. J. Shill (988):.Th Dividnd-Pic Raio and Expcaion of Fuu Dividnd and Dicoun Faco,.Rviw of Financial Sudi, (3), 95.228. Foo, K. A., and M. Obfld (99):.Ininic Bubbl: Th Ca of Sock Pic,.Amican Economic Rviw, 8(5), 89.24. Gallin, J. (2003):.Th ong-run Rlaionhip bwn Hou Pic and Incom: Evidnc fom ocal Houing Mak,.Boad of Govno of h Fdal Rv Dicuion Pap 2003-7. (2004):.Th ong-run Rlaionhip bwn Hou Pic and Rn,.Boad of Govno of h Fdal Rv Dicuion Pap 2004-50. 4

Tabl : Summay Saiic Man Mdian No. of Ob (.d.) Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank 0.687 0.645 960 Bank A o GDP (0.32) Raio of Sockmak 0.28 0.07 6 Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.297) Sockmak Tunov Raio 0.442 0.342 076 (0.452) Raio of Popy Tax Rvnu: 7.903 0.499 56 Fdal To ocal (57.28) Annual Uban Populaion Gowh:.332.245 2393 S-in Inpolaion, % (0.883) Max TV Raio 0.774 0.800 440 (0.0) Ya-on-Ya GDP Gowh, % -2.082-2.056 420 (22.36) Zoning Dummy: Dcnalizaion 0.044 0.000 2340 (0.283) Zoning Dummy: Social (Envionmn 0.30 0.000 2340 Public Paicipaion) Focu (0.356) Zoning Dummy: Simplificaion, 0.036 0.000 2340 Conolidaion And Samlining (0.204) Zoning Dummy: Oh 0.048 0.000 2340 (0.24)

Tabl 2. Cdi Mak, Sockmak and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.34*** -0.063** -0.79*** -0.02*** -0.65*** -0.0*** Bank A o GDP (0.02) (0.028) (0.027) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) og Raio of Sockmak 0.04*** 0.047*** 0.032*** 0.046*** Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) og Sockmak Tunov Raio 0.038*** 0.067*** 0.057*** 0.066*** (0.007) (0.009) (0.008) (0.00) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion 927 927 83 83 823 823 83 83 823 823 R-quad 0.9456 0.9534 0.9502 0.9563 0.953 0.9572 0.9529 0.9569 0.9538 0.9578 Co(gdp_dmb, gdp_ock)=0.527. Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

Tabl 3. Popy Tax, Uban Populaion Gowh, Maximum TV Raio and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.20*** -0.64*** -0.50*** -0.023-0.98*** 0.00-0.98*** -0.064-0.68*** -0.098*** Bank A o GDP (0.029) (0.035) (0.030) (0.034) (0.049) (0.055) (0.049) (0.062) (0.030) (0.030) og Raio of Sockmak 0.046*** 0.049*** 0.030*** 0.045*** -0.007-0.02** -0.009-0.03*** 0.037*** 0.049*** Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.006) (0.009) (0.006) (0.009) (0.007) (0.00) (0.007) (0.0) (0.006) (0.008) og Raio of Popy Tax Rvnu: 0.029*** 0.032*** Fdal To ocal (0.005) (0.005) og Max TV Raio -0.28** -0.753*** 0.295* 0.707** (0.32) (0.69) (0.6) (0.286) Inacion: og Max TV Raio & -0.63* -0.262*** -0.48* -0.27*** Ya-On-Ya GDP Gowh (0.092) (0.090) (0.09) 0.089 og Annual Uban Populaion Gowh: 0.025*** 0.06* S-in Inpolaion, % (0.009) (0.009) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion 7 7 83 83 536 536 536 2456 83 83 R-quad 0.9596 0.963 0.953 0.958 0.3378 0.457 0.349 0.7 0.9533 0.9572 Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

Tabl 4. Dvlopmn gilaion and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.86*** -0.32*** -0.86*** -0.32*** -0.84*** -0.28*** -0.84*** -0.28*** Bank A o GDP (0.026) (0.035) (0.026) (0.030) (0.026) (0.030) (0.026) (0.029) og Raio of Sockmak 0.037*** 0.047*** 0.037*** 0.048*** 0.037*** 0.048*** 0.037*** 0.048*** Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) Zoning: Dcnalizaion 0.04** 0.029 0.045** 0.034* (0.020) (0.02) (0.020) (0.020) Zoning: Social (Envionmnal, 0.034** 0.055*** 0.034** 0.054*** Public Paicipaion) Focu (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) Zoning: Simplificaion, 0.02 0.045* 0.023 0.04 Conolidaion And Samlining (0.026) (0.027) (0.025) (0.026) Zoning: Oh -0.48*** -0.76*** -0.48*** -0.73*** -0.47*** -0.75*** -0.47*** -0.73*** (0.027) (0.027) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) Zoning: Dcnalizaion 0.036*** 0.045*** 0.038*** 0.046*** Social (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 R-quad 0.955 0.9598 0.955 0.9598 0.955 0.9597 0.955 0.9596 Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

Tabl 3A. Popy Tax, Uban Populaion Gowh, Maximum TV Raio and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.74*** -0.49*** -0.5*** -0.098*** -0.55*** -0.038-0.246*** -0.024-0.243*** -0.069 Bank A o GDP (0.026) (0.035) (0.026) (0.030) (0.029) (0.035) (0.046) (0.056) (0.046) (0.063) og Sockmak Tunov Raio 0.07*** 0.077*** 0.062*** 0.068*** 0.057*** 0.068*** 0.007-0.005 0.003-0.04 (0.008) (0.00) (0.008) (0.00) (0.008) (0.0) (0.0) (0.05) (0.02) (0.06) og Raio of Popy Tax Rvnu: 0.025*** 0.03*** Fdal To ocal (0.005) (0.005) og Annual Uban Populaion Gowh: 0.024*** 0.05* S-in Inpolaion, % (0.008) (0.009) og Max TV Raio -0.20-0.580*** 0.300* 0.478* (0.36) (0.77) (0.73) (0.298) Inacion: og Max TV Raio & -0.45-0.25*** -0.28-0.258*** Ya-On-Ya GDP Gowh (0.094) (0.094) (0.094) (0.094) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion 703 703 823 823 805 805 528 528 528 528 R-quad 0.9603 0.9646 0.9542 0.958 0.954 0.9588 0.3348 0.445 0.3386 0.4479 Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

Tabl 4A. Dvlopmn gilaion and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.66*** -0.28*** -0.66*** -0.28*** -0.64*** -0.25*** -0.64*** -0.25*** Bank A o GDP (0.025) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) og Sockmak Tunov Raio 0.062*** 0.067*** 0.062*** 0.066*** 0.062*** 0.068*** 0.062*** 0.067*** (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009) Zoning: Dcnalizaion 0.030 0.09 0.033 0.022 (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.022) Zoning: Social (Envionmnal, 0.032* 0.059*** 0.032** 0.059*** Public Paicipaion) Focu (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.06) Zoning: Simplificaion, 0.024 0.030 0.023 0.026 Conolidaion And Samlining (0.025) (0.027) (0.025) (0.026) Zoning: Oh -0.46*** -0.76*** -0.46*** -0.72*** -0.45*** -0.76*** -0.45*** -0.72*** (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) Zoning: Dcnalizaion 0.03* 0.044*** 0.033*** 0.045*** Social (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion 823 823 823 823 823 823 823 823 R-quad 0.9559 0.9606 0.9559 0.9605 0.9558 0.9605 0.9558 0.9604 Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %