Edward S. Rubin Department of Engineering and Public Policy Department of Mechanical Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Edward S. Rubin Department of Engineering and Public Policy Department of Mechanical Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Presentation to the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy University of Calgary Alberta, Canada October 7, 2013 Overview of Talk Coal and its environmental issues What exactly is clean coal technology? Coal and global climate change The potential role of CCS The importance of technology innovation Future options and outlook 1

Historically, coal has been a major source of low cost energy %Share of World Energy Supply Source: Staudt 2009 Major Uses of Coal Today (percent of sector energy from coal in 2010) Sector U.S. China World Electricity 46 80 43 Industrial 8 60 27 Others 1 20 4 2

Air Pollution from coal burning has been a major public health issue Particulate t matter (including smoke, dust, ash) Sulfur dioxide Nitrogen oxides Trace metals Historically, Coal Got Little Love Be it known to all within the sound of my voice, whosoever shall be found guilty of burning coal shall suffer the loss of his head. Proclamation of King Edward I of England, 1306, to provide a smoke free environment in London during sessions of Parliament Players 3

Coal Use in Pittsburgh, ca. 1970 Colfax Power Station, Springdale, 1970 Brunot Island Power Station, 1970 Clairton Coke Works, 1970 Carnegie Mellon University, 1974 Number of Federal U.S. Environmental Laws, 1870 1870 19901990 Num mber of Laws 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Source: EPRI Year 4

l 10/7/2013 Air Pollutant Emissions from New Coal Fired Power Plants 1 Particulate Sulfur Nitrogen Matter Dioxide Oxides 10 10 5 lbs / 10 6 Btu 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.2 98% Red. 0.1 0.03 99% Red. 99.7 % Red. 0.01 99.9 % Red. 1999 TSP 1 0.1 0.01 0% Red. Pre- NSPS 1.2 0.6 Pre- 1971 1979 NSPS NSPS NSPS 75% 0.1 0% 90% 0.1 Red. Red. Red. 98+ % Red. 0.01 1971 1979 1999 Pre- NSPS NSPS FGD NSPS 1 1 0.7 0.6 30% Red. 1971 NSPS 1979 NSPS 0.15 40% Red. 85% Red. 1997 NSPS U.S. Air Pollutant Emission Trends Particulate emissions (1940 1997) Sulfur dioxide emissions 5

So What s the Problem? Many existing coal burning plants are not covered by stringent federal standards for new sources Regional emissions still exceed levels needed to achieve air quality standards for some health related pollutants (especially PM 2.5 and O 3 ) Hazardous air pollutants (especially mercury) and solid wastes from coal plants are additional concerns Greenhouse gas emissions i (mainly CO 2 ) from fossil fuel combustion are not presently controlled Coal mining and transportation add to environmental impacts on a life cycle basis What is Clean Coal? Clean coal refers to technologies that improve the environmental performance of coal-based electricity yplants. American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, September 2012 Clean coal is a term pollsters came up with because it polls higher than regular coal. What we want are real cleaner-burning fuels... President Jeb Bartlet, The West Wing (TV series), March 27, 2002 [part of a] strategy to take control of our energy future invested substantially in [cost-effective] carbon capture and sequestration President Barack Obama (website), September 2012 6

Current Trends in Coal Use Global coal use is increasing, both as a percentage of total t energy and in annual tonnage Driven mainly by demand from non OECD countries, primarily China and India. Coal use in America has tripled over the last four decades while key emissions have been reduced more than 80%, thanks to advanced clean coal technologies. What Are These Advanced Clean Coal Technologies? Pollutant emissions have been reduced mainly by deploying efficient flue gas cleaning devices in response to regulatory requirements, including: Low NO x burners (LNB) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for NO x reduction Electrostatic precipitator (ESP) or fbi fabric filter (FF) collectors for particulate emissions; Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems for SO 2 reduction 7

Other Clean Coal Technologies More efficient coal combustion plants have been developed and are in use in some parts of the world Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants also have been developed and demonstrated, but are not currently in widespread commercial use These plants reduce natural resource requirements and emissions per unit of delivered energy Baseline Projections of World Energy Consumption (assuming no new policy initiatives) Source: EIA, 2013 8

Global Climate Change and Sustainability Global CO 2 Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations are Increasing Continued increases are projected in the absence of policy interventions Source: ORNL, 2011 Source: NOAA, 2011 9

More extreme events are expected as atmospheric concentration rises Stabilizing the Atmosphere Requires Large Emission Reductions, Soon In contrast to other air pollutants, CO 2 has a very long lifetime in the atmosphere (centuries) Serious impacts are projected for >2ºC rise in average global temperature Required change in global CO 2, equiv emissions from 2000 to 2050 85% to 50% Source: IPCC, 2007 CO 2 from energy use is the dominant greenhouse gas; Large CO 2 reductions are needed 10

Enter: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Fossil fuels will continue to be used for many decades alternatives are not able to substitute quickly CCS is the ONLY way to get large ( 90%) CO 2 reductions from fossil fuel use a potential bridging strategy to a sustainable energy future CCS also is needed decarbonize the transportation sector (via low carbon electricity and hydrogen from fossil fuels) Models show CCS is a key component of cost effective strategies; without CCS, the global cost of achieving a low carbon energy future will be much higher Schematic of a CCS Process Fossil Fuels; Biomass Air or Oxygen Power Plant or Industrial Process CO 2 CO 2 Capture & Compress CO 2 Transport CO 2 Storage (Sequestration) USEFUL PRODUCTS (e.g., electricity, fuels, chemicals, hydrogen) - Post-combustion - Pre-combustion - Oxyfuel combustion - Pipeline - Depleted oil/gas fields - Tanker - Deep saline formations - Unmineable coal seams - Deep Ocean - Mineralization - Reuse 11

Current Applications of CO 2 Capture Gas-fired power plant Coal-fired power plant H 2 production plant (Source: Flour Daniel) (Source: (IEA GHG) (Source: Chevron-Texaco) CCS Technology Is real Is effective Is commercially available but... It is currently expensive It still must be demonstrated at full power plant scale It must gain public acceptance 12

Key Barriers to CCS Deployment Policy Policy Policy While other factors also are important, without a policy requirement or incentive there is little or no reason to deploy CCS First Commercial Scale Demo of CCS on a Coal Fired Power Plant will be in Canada Sask Power Boundary Dam project 110 MW coal fired unit Post combustion capture + EOR (storage) ~ 1 Mt CO 2 /yr On line early 2014 13

USDOE Supported Supported Demonstrations Performer Location Capture Technology Capture Rate (m tons/y) Target Formation Start Date PC Power Plants NRG Energy Thompsons, TX Amine ~0.5 EOR 2015 American Electric Power New Haven, WV Chilled Ammonia 1.5 Saline 2015 FutureGen Alliance Meredosia, IL Oxy 1.0 EOR/Saline 2015 IGCC Power Plants \Summit Texas Clean Odessa, TX Selexol 3.0 EOR >2014 Energy Southern Company Kemper County, Selexol 2.0 EOR 2014 MS Hydrogen Energy California Kern County, CA Rectisol 2.0 EOR/Saline 2016 Industrial Processes Leucadia Energy Lake Charles, LA Rectisol 4.0 EOR 2014 Lake Charles Air Products Port Arthur, TX Amine 1.0 EOR 2013 Archer Daniels Midland Decatur, IL Amine 1.0 Saline 2014 The Importance of Technology Innovation 14

R&D Programs are Seeking Lower Cost CCS Technologies Post-combustion (existing, new PC) t Reduction Benefit Cost Pre-combustion (IGCC) Oxycombustion (new PC) CO 2 compression (all) Advanced physical solvents Advanced Amine chemical solvents solvents Physical Ammonia solvents CO 2 com- Cryogenic pression oxygen PBI membranes Solid sorbents Membrane systems ITMs Biomass cofiring Ionic liquids Metal organic frameworks Enzymatic membranes Chemical looping OTM boiler Biological processes CAR process Present 5+ years 10+ years 15+ years 20+ years Time to Commercialization Source: USDOE, 2010 The Common (Linear) Model of Technological Change Invention Innovation Adoption Diffusion 15

A More Realistic Model of Technological Change New idea Invention Innovation (new or better product) Adoption (limited use of early designs) Diffusion (improvement & widespread use) R&D Learning By Doing Learning By Using Policy options that can foster technology innovations Technology Policy Options Regulatory Policy Options Direct Gov t Funding of Knowledge Generation Direct or Indirect Support for Commercialization and Production Knowledge Diffusion and Learning Economy-wide, Sector-wide, or Technology- Specific Regs and Standards R&D contracts with private firms (fully funded or costshared) Intramural R&D in government laboratories R&D contracts with consortia or collaborations R&D tax credits Patents Production subsidies or tax credit for firms bringing new technologies to market Tax credits, rebates, or payments for purchasers/users of new technologies Gov t procurement of new or advanced technologies Demonstration projects Loan guarantees Monetary prizes Education and training Codification and diffusion of technical knowledge (e.g., via interpretation and validation of R&D results; screening; support for databases) Technical standards Technology/Industry extension program Publicity, persuasion and consumer information Emissions tax Cap-and-trade program Performance standards (for emission rates, efficiency, or other measures of performance) Fuels tax Portfolio standards 16

Value of Sustained RD&D 400 Projected price of CO 2 emissions under two technology scenarios: REFERENCE CASE: continue historical rates of technology improvement ADVANCED TECH: more rapid technological change $/tco 2 -e (2005 U.S.$) Reference 350 Advanced 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2020 2035 2050 Sou urce: NRC, 2010 The availability of advanced technologies can greatly reduce the cost of emission reductions So What Lies Ahead? Future Coal Use 17

The Big Question Given our current reliance on fossil fuels, what are the potential roles of CCS and clean coal technologies in moving to a sustainable, ti low carbon energy system? Current Fossil Fuel Economy Sustainable Energy System How do we get there from here? Forecasts often suggest perfect foresight 1400 0 1200 1000 0 Nuclear Nuclear Solar Solar Hydro Hydro Biomass Biomass Coal Coal N.Gas NGas N.Gas C.Oil C.Oil EJ/yr 800 600 400 200 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 even 100 years out! 18

But the Future is Uncertain 1400 1200 1000 Nuclear Nuclear Solar Solar Hydro Hydro Biomass Biomass Coal Coal NGas N.Gas N.Gas C.Oil C.Oil EJ/yr 800 600 400 200 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 A carbon-constrained world could look very different than the past Insights from Energy Models Coal with CCS is a critical component of costeffective strategies for sustainable low carbon energy systems CCS on gas fired plants also is important, especiallyas as natural gas gains a larger share of power generation markets EJ/yr 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 80% reduction in GHGs by 2050 ADAGE EPPA Oil w/o CCS Oil w/ccs Coal w/o CCS Coal w/ccs Gas w/o CCS Gas w/ccs Bioenergy w/o CCS Bioenergy w/ccs Nuclear Non-Biomass Renewable MERGE Energy Reduction MiniCAM MRN-NEEM Source: NRC, 2010 19

Clean Coal / Clean Gas: A Potential Bridge to a Sustainable Energy Future Coal and gas w/ccs Current Fossil Fuel Economy Sustainable Energy System Energy Efficiency Renewables Carbon Sequestration Thank You rubin@cmu.edu 20