Three Trade Association Small Business Data Bases William J. Dennis, Jr. Senior Research Fellow NFIB Research Foundation Academy of Management Chicago, IL August, 2009
Three Data Bases Small Business Economic Trends www.nfib.com/research National Small Business Poll 411smallbusinessfacts.com New Business in America: The Firms and Their Owners Not on the Web
Small Business Economic Trends Topic current and forecast economic data, e.g., selling prices, employment, credit conditions, inventories. 37 questions Data Collection member survey. Mail. Quarterly between Oct., 1973 and Jan., 1986; monthly since. Currently, about 12,000 observations a year Data availability both micro and aggregate series
SBET Strengths Longevity 37 years (time series) Consistent most questions unchanged over time Frequent monthly Reliable questions patterned after Un. of Mich. s Survey of Consumer Sentiment Performance demonstrated subsequently Unique nothing like it in the world No cost to user
SBET Weaknesses Sample from trade association membership, respondents disproportionately large, rural, manufacturers Response rate between 33 percent and 17 percent Trends are trustworthy; levels are not Some questions do not date to 1973. Tweaks made in 1982 and 1986 Micro-responses cannot be linked over time
Currency Released the second Tuesday of each month E-mail press release with summary results Anyone can be on the mailing list (now consists principally of media, investment firms, and government officials
Net Percent EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009 (Seasonally Adjusted) 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 YEAR NFIB Research Foundation
Net Percent PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009 (Seasonally Adjusted) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 Actual Planned 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 YEAR NFIB Research Foundation
Percent of Firms THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 11 PREDICTED ACTUAL 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Q3 BASED ON JUNE DATA 8.8% 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00 '03 '06 '09
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National Small Business Poll Topic various, each Poll is a different topic, e. g., Families in Business, IT Issues, Payroll, Innovation Data Collection stratified random sample of small employers (<250 empl.) from D&B files. N 750 per Poll. Telephone. Conducted by The Gallup Organization. Data Availability micro data with NAICs, employees, or zip consolidated
NSBP Strengths Sampling and survey conduct Stratification includes 200 cases of 20+ employee firms in each survey 63 separate polls (variety) Isolated facts (unusual questions); research ideas Preview survey questions, response, and Ns on-line No cost to user
NSBP Weaknesses Lacks depth, detail Questions gather general information, facts, evaluations; not hypothesis driven Samples always of general population, meaning problems, issues of subsets not (infrequently) addressed Profitability (finance), growth measures poor
Sample Topics in the Series Workplace Safety Reinvesting in the Business Contributions to Community Business Structure Training Employees Energy Consumption IT Issues Credit Cards
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New Business in America Antecedent to the PSED 3 year longitudinal survey 1985-1987 Businesses <18 months old Yr 1 2994 cases Yr 2 1190 cases Yr 3 877 cases Could not identify final status of only 1 case Sampling frame NFIB membership file
Sample Topics Addressed Strategy same questions all three years Major changes Sales problems Time allocation Capital sources and additions Franchised sales Expected success Reasons for entry Personal satisfaction Changes in ownership structure Information sources Preparation, including prior business experience
Why Consider Using the Set? PSED more comprehensive, more recent, reaches people earlier in the process, and is methodologically superior Why use the New Business in America set? Easier to use; less intimidating Some differences and emphases Annual intervals Know the three year survival status of everyone; increases number of cases to work with
Publications from New Bus. In Am. Do Entrepreneurial Goals Matter? Resource Allocation in New Owner- Managed Firms. Dunkelberg, Moore, Scott, Stull, under review, 2009 Survival of the fittest? Entry human capital and the persistence of underperforming firms. Gimeno, Folta, Cooper, ASQ, Dec. 1997 Determinants of satisfaction for entrepreneurs. Cooper, Artz, JBV, 1995
More Publications Reinvestment decisions by entrepreneurs: Rational decision-making or escalation of commitment? McCarthy, Schoorman, Cooper, JBV, Jan 1993 Entrepreneurship and the initial size of firms. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, September, 1989 Entrepreneurs perceived chances for success. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, Spring 1988