Labor Market Demand Analysis for Green Jobs October 2009 Anson Green Alamo Colleges San Antonio, Texas Karen Steinberg Council on Applied and Experiential Learning El Paso, Texas The Alamo Colleges defines green to include jobs and related skills in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and conservation and management clusters. These are growing areas in the San Antonio area economy with projections of thousands of new jobs over the next decade as well as projections of critical skills gaps among the regional incumbent workforce expected to fill these jobs. The state has set incentives for local action through strong goals for the portion of energy to be generated from renewable sources (5,880 MW of electricity by 2015), (Angelou Economics, May 2009). In February 2009, San Antonio s mayor unveiled Mission Verde, a plan to build a 21 st Century economy with an emphasis on green jobs in San Antonio around the renewable energy industry. Mission Verde includes: large scale weatherization and retro-fit programs to increase energy efficiency in city buildings and residences, energy generation from renewable sources that can be stored and distributed through smart grid technology, phased adoption of high performance building codes to reduce the city s carbon footprint, creation of a multi-tech venture capital fund to attract and support new industries in the sector, use of the city s economic development strategies to enhance a sustainable energy economy, and a Green Page 1
Jobs Program that recognizes and builds on the opportunity to create good new jobs in the energy efficiency and renewable energy industries. In 2008, San Antonio was designated as a U.S. Department of Energy Solar America City and has since embarked on a plan to reduce barriers to the commercialization of solar and other renewable energy technologies and to make the city a flagship sustainable energy city for the United States through a transition to a distributed energy system. The city currently leads the state in use of renewable energy. In San Antonio the renewable energy industry is also dependent on policies and programs that aim to clean and enhance the environment including water management and arborist conservation efforts. San Antonio relies on the Edwards Aquifer as the sole source of drinking water for over 1.7 million residents so green jobs in environmental protection with an emphasis on water conservation is critical for this region. Mission Verde has driven new city ordinances in regard to water usage standards, water audits, and state licensing requirements for landscape, arborist and irrigation workers, which are leading to new job requirements and certifications as well as new green jobs in this industry. Recycling of treated municipal wastewater is an essential element of the city s conservation plan designed to reduce Edwards Aquifer water use for non-potable applications. Strategies to achieve this include rigorous conservation efforts, a plan to virtually eliminate the use of fresh water resources for irrigation, and to provide recycled water to commercial and industrial businesses. Most of the water used by Toyota at its Tundra truck manufacturing plant comes from recycled water saving 300 million gallons of city water each year. Due to innovative conservation efforts, San Antonio s water consumption is as it was 20 years ago even though the population of San Antonio has increased by 50%. This savings has saved San Antonio Water Service (SAWS), the public water utility, $550 million by not having to acquire new water Page 2
resources. Interviews with SAWS and with area building and landscape firms confirm that contractors and workers with a good knowledge of water conservation methods and xeriscaping are in high demand. New Texas regulations that go into effect in 2010 will affect water conservation occupations. Effective in January all firms that sell, design, install or maintain irrigation systems must have a licensed irrigation technician on every active site. Licenses can only be obtained after successful completion of a certified course and the licensing exam. These water and conservation related requirements present unique workforce development staffing challenges for irrigation firms. Solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion is preparing to rapidly grow in San Antonio due to CPS Energy (city owned electric utility) adding solar as part of a long-term transition to distributed generation with solar, wind and other renewable energy systems feeding San Antonio s CPS energy grid. CPS Energy s new Solartricity Producer program offers solarenergy options for small, medium and large customers. The goal is to attract 20 to 400 Solartricity producers that will collectively produce 10 MW of electricity (enough to power 1500 homes) that CPS Energy will purchase. This economic driver for solar energy production is predicted to spur tremendous growth in the solar PV business in the next two years. Casey Marshall of Meridian Solar estimates direct job creation of the Solartricity program alone to be 160 jobs. The CPS STEP program will aggregate $850 million over 12 years for energy efficiency and renewables. The funding is available for a broad range of energy efficiency improvements, including weatherization and more energy efficient appliances, as well as solar installations. This funding should ensure that the initial jobs created for weatherization have continuing financial support. Of particular note is the WellMed Foundation s intention to distribute $500,000 each year for two years for installation of solar hot water heaters on low and moderate income houses. Page 3
In the current economy, labor market demand must be determined based on historical industry trends and current economic drivers that will impact job growth, but for which labor market (LMI) lags. Table 1 describes targeted occupations for training and career pathways development and state LMI data on which the Workforce Solutions Alamo (area Workforce Investment Board) determines demand occupations. LMI occupations for training were chosen based on an overlay of four factors: 1) documented demand statistics (from LMI data and in surveys and interviews with area employers) 2) categorization as a green job 3) degree to which the occupation had career path potential, and 4) determination that target populations for training could reach employment goals in occupation through short to medium term training. Page 4
Table 1 Targeted Occupations Demand Statistics Based on Historical Trends Projected Hourly Regional O*Net/SOC Growth (by Wage Employment 2016) Percent Change Building Weatherization 47-2031 $15,.00 4,300 5,050 17.4% Certified Energy Rater 47-4011 $19.42 650 800 23.1% 47-2031 $15.00 4,300 5,050 17.4% Solar Photovoltaic Panel 47-2111 $16.71 4,150 5,000 20.5% Installer and Electrician 47-3013 $11.91 1,200 1,450 20.8% Licensed Irrigator & 37-3011 $15.15 1,200 1,450 20% Certified Arborist 37-1012 $9.54 7,050 8,800 24.80% Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Standard Occupational Components for Research and Analysis of Trends in Employment System A Workforce Solutions Alamo report on Green Occupations developed by EMSI showed that retrofitting jobs grew by 3% and solar power occupations grew by 2% from 2007-2008, which shows underlying demand. EMSI also projected job growth for certain occupations between 2010 and 2019 for the City of San Antonio (COSA) Economic Development Department. Jobs for insulation workers are projected to grow by 22.9%, construction and building inspectors by 22.4%, carpenters by 18.4%, environmental engineering techs by 18%, construction laborers by 16.7%, electricians by 14.4%, and HVAC technicians by 13.7%--many of these occupations exceeding the overall rate of growth for Bexar County (17%) for this same period. A May 2009 survey (Angelou Economics) of 119 clean energy and energy efficiency employers in Central and South Texas found that employers believe weatherization and retrofitting activities will provide the greatest number of jobs in the region in the short term. The survey identified eight primary occupations in the region where employers reported both current and future demand. Six of the eight are directly related to occupations and pathways targeted in this proposal: Page 5
In the very near future the City of San Antonio and Bexar County will be receiving significant funding for implementation of large weatherization and retrofitting programs for large numbers of existing structures (Table 2), and it is expected that these projects will create Table 2: Specific ARRA and Other Projects Driving Job Demand Organization Driving Factor Impact The City of San Antonio $12.3M over 2 years for ARRA Weatherization Assistance Program 2,000 number of homes to be weatherized by date Alamo Areas Council of Governments ARRA Solar American Cities Solar Hot Water Program ($2M) and WellMed Charitable Foundation will provide $1M to pay for the purchase and installation of solar hot water heaters. San Antonio s Mission Verde five year sustainability program for solar $14M over 2 years for Weatherization Assistance Program (12 county region) Train 750 older youth to be solar ambassadors to recruit 100 low income homeowners to receive solar hot water heater installations 6000 solar commercial installations and 50,000 residential installations yielding the need for 300 solar workers 3,500 homes weatherized by 2011 CPS Energy ARRA weatherization program 2,000 homes weatherized by 2011 STEP Program 30,000 homes to be weatherized by 2015 Solartricity program will attract 20 to 400 solar producers Produce 10 MW of electricity and 160 solar jobs over 2 years significant demand for construction and weatherization workers, perhaps significantly beyond existing LMI projections. This demand, combined with the city s emphasis on green standards, new codes and regulations in building, construction, and water will impact contractors, weatherization vendors, and irrigation and arborist firms. CPS Energy has pledged $158M in weatherization projects through 2020 in an effort to make area homes more energy efficient so that renewable forms of energy such as solar and wind can be effective sources of residential energy. Page 6
The Alamo Colleges closely coordinates with these efforts to ensure a skilled incumbent and new workforce is available. Training efforts are aligned to directly address the need for workers to meet these and other demands. The current economic and workforce climate in San Antonio, including the convergence of the recent economic downturn, new state and local code requirements, the increased regional interest in and attention to renewable energy, energy efficiency and conservation, and the increased federal investment in the industry through ARRA funds has created a complex environment for forecasting labor market skills, worker demand and demand for education and training programs to meet new skill requirements. As emerging industries, green jobs and green skills are dependent on existing occupations and skills as well as new and enhanced jobs and skills sets. This presents an opportunity for residents of the city s poorest neighborhoods to potentially access new career paths and jobs with family sustaining wages if they can obtain the necessary training and secure jobs in these industries. Page 7