Self-Storage Investment Trends to Watch April 16, 2015
Economic Outlook Underpins Self-Storage Sector
Hiring Makes Steady Gains Supports Broader Economic Performance Quarterly Job Growth (Millions) 0.9 0.0-0.9-1.8-2.7 2015 Forecast: 3.1 Million - 3.5 Million -8.7 Million +8.2 Million +11.5 Million** 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* * Forecast ** Through March Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
U.S. Employment Gains Broad-Based Y-O-Y Sector Change Through March 2015 U.S. Employment Sectors Absolute Change % Change Prof. & Business Services 662,000 3.5% Trade, Transport & Utilities 607,000 2.3% Education and Health Services 541,000 2.5% Leisure & Hospitality 490,000 3.4% Construction 282,000 4.7% Manufacturing 188,000 1.5% Financial Activities 150,000 1.9% Other Services 73,000 1.3% Government 72,000 0.3% Information 59,000 2.2% Natural Resources & Mining 4,000 0.5% Net Change 3,128,000 2.3% Sources: Marcus && Millichap Research Services, BLS BLS
National Employment Rank by Metro Y-O-Y Absolute Change Through February 2015 Top 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change Bottom 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change Dallas-Ft. Worth 132,200 4.1% Atlanta 113,200 4.6% New York 106,500 2.6% Houston 97,700 3.4% Los Angeles 94,500 2.3% Chicago 67,400 1.5% Phoenix 62,700 3.4% Seattle 58,400 3.2% Inland Empire 57,600 4.6% Denver 55,600 4.2% U.S. Total 3,227,000 2.3% Milwaukee 8,900 1.1% Cleveland 10,800 1.0% St. Louis 13,900 1.1% Jacksonville 14,000 2.3% Cincinnati 18,900 1.8% Palm Beach 21,400 3.9% Oakland 25,500 2.4% Columbus 25,900 2.6% Las Vegas 26,800 3.1% Austin 27,500 3.0% U.S. Total 3,227,000 2.3% Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
Confidence Rising Will Support Economic Momentum Consumer Confidence Small Business Optimism Consumer Confidence Index 160 120 80 40 0 120 110 100 90 80 Small Business Optimism Index 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* * Consumer confidence through March; small business optimism through February Index: December 2002 = 100 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, The Conference Board, NFIB
U.S. Core Retail Sales Building Steady Momentum - Growth Lifting Economy 8% $350 20-Year Average: 4.2% $980/person Year-Over-Year Change 4% 0% -4% Retail Sales ($ Bil.) $310 $270 $230 $869/person +19% -8% 07 08 Recession 09 10 11 12 13 14 15* $190 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15* * Through March Core retail sales excludes auto and gasoline sales Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau
Economic Outlook Underpins Self-Storage Sector
Emerging Housing and Migration Patterns Influence Self-Storage
Home Completions (Mil.) and Household Growth (Mil.) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Plunge in Home Construction Supports Housing Recovery Single-Family Construction Multifamily Construction Household Growth 1999-2007 Oversupply: 3.5M * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2015* Undersupply: 2.8M 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Single-Family Housing and Condo Market Pushing Toward Pre-Recession Values Median Home Prices Existing Home Sales $250 Single-Family Condo Y-O-Y Change 650 Single-Family and Condo Median Price (000s) $225 $200 $175 +8% +3% Home Sales (000s) 550 450 350 Y-O-Y Change +5% $150 250 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* * Through February Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, National Association of Realtors
2014 Residential Migration Trends Top 5 Destinations Departures Bottom 5 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, United Van Lines Migration Study
National Metro Ranking Absolute Population Growth 10-Year Forecast* Top 10 Markets Population Growth Percent Change Bottom 10 Markets Population Growth Percent Change Dallas-Ft. Worth 1,467,000 20.9% Phoenix 1,163,000 25.6% Houston 1,111,700 17.0% Atlanta 1,046,900 18.6% Los Angeles 842,200 8.3% Orlando 691,200 29.3% Washington, D.C. 643,900 10.7% Inland Empire 591,600 13.2% Las Vegas 555,800 26.5% Austin 509,800 25.9% U.S. Total 27,700,000 8.6% Cleveland -57,000-2.8% Detroit -40,200-0.9% Milwaukee 33,300 2.1% Cincinnati 133,500 6.1% Columbus 161,700 8.4% Philadelphia 169,200 2.8% Kansas City 179,100 8.5% San Francisco 185,400 9.9% Indianapolis 202,000 10.8% San Jose 212,100 10.8% U.S. Total 27,700,000 8.6% * 1Q 2015-1Q 2025 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau
Emerging Housing and Migration Patterns Influence Self-Storage
Capital Markets
Inflation Generating Little Pressure 10-Year Treasury Range-Bound 4% Core Inflation 10-Year Avg. Core Inflation 10-Year Treasury 10-Year Avg. 10-Year Treasury 3.39% 3% Rate 2% 1.91% 1% 10-Year Average Core Inflation: 1.91% 0% 10-Year Treasury: 3.39% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* * Core inflation through February 2015; 10-year Treasury through April 6, 2015 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve, BLS
10-Year Treasury Rates by Country Country 10-Year Treasury Rate* Germany 0.2% Japan 0.4% France 0.5% Canada 1.4% United Kingdom 1.6% United States 1.9% Australia 2.4% China 3.7% Russia 11.7% Brazil 12.8% * As of April 8, 2015 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Trading Economics
Commercial Real Estate Lender Composition by Percent of Total Dollar Volume 100% Percent of Total Dollar Volume 75% 50% 25% 31% 27% 28% 12% 13% 13% 8% 8% 7% 9% 11% 11% 17% 16% 22% 20% 15% 13% 18% 16% 14% 18% 7% 8% 15% 13% 27% 23% 12% 11% Gov't Agency National Bank International Bank Regional/Local Bank CMBS Insurance Financial Private/Other 0% 5% 2% 5% 1% 5% 7% 9% 1% 1% 1% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Includes sales of properties $2.5 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
Capital Markets
Self-Storage Performance
U.S. Commercial Property Vacancy Trends 20% 17.9% 2006-2012 2013 2014 2015* 17.1% Average Vacancy Rate 15% 10% 5% 11.5% 8.0% 4.8% 8.1% 6.0% 14.5% 10.5% 6.5% 0% Self-Storage Apartment Retail Office Industrial * Forecast Source: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, CoStar Group, Inc., Reis Services, LLC
National Self-Storage Vacancy and Rent Trends $1.8 Asking Rent - Climate Controlled Asking Rent - Not Climate Controlled Vacancy 20% Asking Rent per Square Foot $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 16% 12% 8% Average Vacancy Rate $1.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* * Forecast Rent for 10X10 unit Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis Services, LLC 4%
National Self-Storage Rank by Metro 2014 Vacancy Rate Top 10 Markets 2014 Vacancy Y-O-Y Bps Chg. San Francisco 7.3% -140 San Jose 7.3% -40 Oakland 8.9% -290 Denver 9.8% -50 San Diego 9.8% -310 Los Angeles 10.0% -240 Portland 10.2% -260 Miami 10.3% -30 Dallas-Ft. Worth 10.5% -150 Kansas City 10.6% -330 U.S. Average 12.0% -150 Bottom 10 Markets 2014 Vacancy Y-O-Y Bps Chg. Phoenix 17.1% -100 Las Vegas 16.4% -170 Inland Empire 15.6% -320 Columbus 13.8% 20 Orlando 13.6% -320 Minneapolis 13.1% -10 Atlanta 12.9% -270 Sacramento 12.9% -350 Detroit 12.8% -240 Tampa 12.8% -220 U.S. Average 12.0% -150 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis Services, LLC
Self-Storage Performance
Self-Storage Investment
CRE Investor Sentiment Index Has Been a Strong Indicator of CRE Capital Flows CRE Sales Volume CRE Investor Sentiment $600 200 Total Sales Volume (Bil.) $450 $300 $150 160 120 80 Investor Sentiment Index $0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 40 Includes all apartment, office, retail, and industrial sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics, M&M/NREI Investor Survey
Self-Storage Price and Cap Rate Trends Average Price Average Cap Rate $80 10% Average Price Square Foot $70 $60 $50 9% 8% 7% Average Cap Rate $40 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15* 6% * Preliminary estimate through 1Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.
Self-Storage Cap Rate Trends by Class and Market Type* Primary Secondary Tertiary Average Class A 4.5% - 5.5% 5.5% - 6.25% 6.5% - 7.5% 6.1% Class B 5.5% - 7.0% 6.5% - 7.5% 7.5% - 8.5% 6.8% Class C 6.5% - 8.0% 7.0% - 9.0% 8.0% - 10.0% 7.8% Average 6.0% 6.9% 7.8% 6.6% * Trailing 12-month through 1Q 2015 Sources: Marcus && Millichap Research Services, CoStar BLSGroup, Inc.
Self-Storage Cap Rate vs. 10-Year Treasury Self-Storage Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate 10.0% Cap Rate Long-Term Average Average Rate 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 520 bps 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 270 bps 10-Yr. Treasury Long-Term Average * Through March 6 Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Federal Reserve 580 bps 470 bps 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
U.S. Commercial Property Cap Rate Trends 12% 2000-2012 2013 2014 Change From Prior Cyclical Low -30 bps +10 bps -10 bps +30 bps +30 bps 9% Average Cap Rate 6% 3% 0% Self-Storage Apartment Retail Office Industrial Source: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
Self-Storage Investment
Self-Storage Investment Trends to Watch April 16, 2015