The German Election Campaign in Times of Crisis

The German Election Campaign in Times of Crisis Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference Elections in Times of Crisis European University Institute, 28-29 November, 2013

Germany 2013: A thriving economy Source: Starke (2013) Source: Starke (2013)

And the Euro crisis? Downplayed as campaign theme (Established) parties election manifestos indicate differences on solidity solidarity dimension: Government parties (FDP > CDU/CSU): carry on as before (help to indebted countries, but only conditional on reforms; no debt union ) Opposition parties (SPD < Greens < Left): stronger emphasis on solidarity, calling for relaxation of austerity measures in indebted states Leaves blank spot: opposition to help for indebted Euro countries (and Euro itself)! Filled by

A new party entering the game Founded Feb. 2013 as anti-euro party, neither left nor right (but advances made from the right) Leadership of bourgeois respectability: professors of economics, conservative journalists, businessmen/women, well-known former CDU members Core issue: dissolution of Euro zone, return to national currencies; but also: flat tax, stop to unordered immigration into German welfare system Well-financed campaign, due to significant donations

The voters view: perceptions of economy at federal elections 2013, 2009, 2005 2013 2009 2005 Personal economic situation rather good 60 51 47 rather bad 9 13 15 General economic situation rather good 49 15 12 rather bad 9 32 45 Sources: RCS Election study 2005, GLES 2009 and 2013

The voters view: most important problems, July September 2013 Most important problem Most or second most (%) important problem (%) Social welfare / justice 21.1 36.5 Euro crisis 19.6 30.4 Labor market 16.4 28.1 Education 8.6 16.9 Economy general 5.2 9.6 Energy 4.0 7.8 Family / child care 3.6 8.2 NSA / data protection 3.4 6.0 Immigration 3.2 8.2 Source: GLES 2013

The voters view: fear of European debt crisis? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Very much Much Moderate Little None at all Source: GLES 2013

The voters view: positions on issues (socio-economic, libertarian, EU solidarity) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Reduce income diffs Immigrants should adapt Help indebted EU members Source: GLES 2013

Winners and losers at the 2013 election

Party voters decision making (% having preferred party eventually voted for already during campaign) 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 CDU/CSU SPD FDP Greens Left AfD 10.00 0.00 July August Sept 1-11 Sept 12-21 Source: GLES 2013

Modeling vote choices: CDU/CSU Source: GLES 2013

Modeling vote choices: AfD Source: GLES 2013

Conclusion Economic situation very favorable CDU/CSU rewarded at the polls Euro crisis dethematized by most parties campaigns, but nonetheless salient and worrisome for numerous voters. Many voters more strongly opposed to Euro help than all established parties. AfD capitalized on Euro concerns and anti-euro sentiments, but its immigration-critical positions were crucial for success. Good prospects for AfD at European election! Will it turn into a populist party?

Thank you very much!

Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013

What s behind voters economic perceptions and attitudes? Ego / current Perceptions of economy Socio / current Socio / retro Socio / pro Fear of Euro crisis Euro crisis = MIP Help for EU countries West German + - - + + Male + ++ + + - + + Age + + - -- + Education ++ + + - - + ++ Worker - + + New middle class + + Unemployed -- + + - Pensioner ++ Trade union - - Left - right + + + + + + - Newspapers + + + + + + + TV news + + + + + + + Source: GLES 2013

The voters view: problem solving capacity CDU/CSU SPD FDP Greens Left AfD Pirates Other party No party All parties DK Total 33.0 23.0 1.1 4.9 4.5 1.4 0.8 0.7 20.7 1.3 8.6 Social welfare / justice 21.2 37.7 0.3 3.8 8.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 18.7 1.0 7.3 Euro crisis 50.3 14.2 1.2 1.0 2.6 3.6 0.3 0.7 17.8 1.2 7.0 Labor market 37.1 23.7 0.8 1.4 4.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 21.2 0.8 10.2 Education 26.5 30.1 1.9 4.3 2.2 1.5 0.3 1.2 21.0 1.0 9.9 Economy general 56.6 11.8 1.7 2.9 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.7 15.0 0.2 8.6 Energy 26.6 16.0 0.3 32.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 14.1 1.3 7.7 Family / child care 26.5 30.7 0.7 4.9 2.5 0.0 0.0 1.4 19.8 1.8 11.7 NSA / data protection 23.7 15.0 1.5 7.5 4.9 1.5 9.0 1.5 22.9 3.8 8.6 Immigration 30.0 13.6 0.8 6.4 9.2 1.2 1.2 4.0 21.6 3.6 8.4 Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013 Source: GLES 2013

The voters view: government performance at federal elections 2009 and 2013 2013 2009 Government 0.5 0.3 CDU in government 1.1 0.8 CSU in government 0.3-0.1 FDP in government -1.1 - SPD in government - 0.0 Entries are means on 11-point scales (-5 to +5) Source: GLES 2009 and 2013

The voters view: candidates 2013, 2009, 2005 Evaluations (means, scale -5 to +5) 2013 2009 2005 CDU/CSU (Merkel) 2.2 [+1.0] 2.2 1.0 SPD (Steinbrück/Steinmeier/Schröder) 0.4 [-0.5] 1.1 1.3 FDP -0.5 [+0.5] 0.4-0.3 Greens 0.0 [-0.4] 0.1 0.9 The Left -0.4 [+1.1] -1.4-1.7 Chancellor preferences (%) Merkel 60.9 60.7 Steinbrück / Steinmeier 28.5 25.8 Differences to candidates parties ratings in parentheses. Sources: RCS Election study 2005, GLES 2009 and 2013

The parties campaigns: coalition signals CDU/CSU FDP SPD Greens The Left seeks continuation of black-yellow coalition, but rejects vote-borrowing to FDP; ambiguous about grand coalition seeks continuation of black-yellow coalition; just started second-vote campaign seeks revival of red-green coalition; red-red-green coalition ruled out; ambiguous about grand coalition seek revival of red-green coalition makes (conditional) offers to SPD and Greens (rejected)

The voters view: coalitions Evaluations (means on scales -5 to +5) 2013 2009 Perceived willingness of parties (means, 1=not to 5=in any case) Black-yellow (C/C+F) 0.1 0.3 4.2 Red-green (S+G) 0.5 -.03 4.3 Grand (C/C+S) 0.9 0.2 3.2 Black-green (C/C+S) -1.1-0.9 2.4 Traffic-light (S+G+F) -1.5-0.8 2.4 Red-red-green (S+G+L) -1.8-2.1 2.5 Expectations Black-yellow (C/C+F) 49.1% Red-green (S+G) 11.8% Grand (C/C+S) 33.5% Sources: GLES 2009 and 2013

Implications of coalitions for governance: composition of the Bundesrat Bavaria after state election of 9/15/13: CSU Hesse state election on 9/22/13: CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens?

The voters preferences: close race between CDU/CSU+FDP vs SPD+Greens+Left 0.7 July - August 2013 5-day prior moving averages 0.6 Vote intentions (%) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Government Opposition 0.1 0 Sources: GLES 2013

Towards a balanced budget Estimate for 2013: 615.2 bio Source: Breuer et al. (2012) Source: Starke (2013)

Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013

Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck / Direktor 05. März 2012

Arbeitslosigkeit Arbeitslosenquote in Deutschland - Jahresdurchschnittswerte bis 2013 Deutschland Arbeitslosenquote in Deutschland im Jahresdurchschnitt von 1995 bis 2013 Arbeitslosenquote (in Prozent) Jahre von 1995 bis 2013 14 12 10 8 9,40 10,40 11,40 11,10 10,50 9,60 9,40 9,80 10,50 10,50 11,70 10,80 9,00 7,80 8,10 7,70 7,10 6,80 7,00 6 4 2 0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13* * Der Wert für 2013 bezieht sich auf die Monate von Januar bis August. Die Werte für die Jahre bis 2008 stammen aus früheren Publikationen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit. Die Arbeitslosenquote stellt den Anteil der Arbeitslosen an der Gesamtzahl der zivilen Erwerbspersonen dar und ist ein richtungsweisender Beleg für die Arbeitsmarkt- und Beschäftigungslage sowie ein Te... weiter im Backup Hinweis: Weitere Angaben zu dieser Statistik, sowie Erläuterungen zu Fußnoten, sind im Backup des Dossiers auf 39 Seite zu finden, ID 1224 Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Arbeits- und Ausbildungsmarkt in Deutschland, August 2013, Seite 57

The voters view: perceptions of general economic situation since 2009 Source: Politbarometer

The voters view: perceived general economic prospects since 2012 Source: Politbarometer

The voters view: most important problems since 2000 Source: Politbarometer

The voters view: position issues Fewer taxes even if less welfare (0) vs more welfare even if higher taxes (1) 0.49 [2009: 0.44] Immigrants should adapt to German culture (0=disagree completely, 1 = agree completely) 0.72 Government should reduce income differences (0=disagree completely, 1 = agree completely) 0.74 In times of the European debt crisis, Germany should financially support EU member states in deep economic and financial troubles (0=disagree completely, 1 = agree completely) 0.48 Sources: GLES 2009 and 2013

The voters view: government performance evaluations since 2009 Source: Politbarometer

Where did 2013 CDU/CSU and AfD voters come from (vote choices at 2009 election)? CDU/ CSU CDU/ CSU FDP SPD Greens Left Other parties Nonvoter 78 9 7 2 1 1 4 AfD 33 12 23 11 4 4 11 Source: GLES 2013

The (established) parties campaigns: highly personalized, little substance Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013

The Merkel rhombus

On the Social Democrats side another gesture captured the public s attention

Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013