Research & Forecast Report CHICAGO INVESTMENT Fourth Quarter 2015 Office Thomas Gorman Senior Vice President Chicago Chicago Office Market Investment Volume Continues to Climb CBD Market Outpacing Suburban Markets in Terms of Pricing and Cap Rates The Chicago market saw nearly $8.5 billion in investment sales transactions in 2015. This cyclical high volume was driven by the sale of both large downtown properties and large suburban portfolios along with a continued flight to asset quality among investors. Clear pricing deltas were observed between Class A and Class B product in both the CBD and the suburbs. Cap rates continued to fall market wide, but have started to plateau, as we start to reach prerecovery pricing for Class A and Trophy assets. Chicago continues to offer investors a slight yield premium over major national markets due to the higher cost of tenant packages experienced in both the CBD and suburban markets relative other marketplaces. However, that yield premium is sufficient to motivate investors in the marketplace to continue to aggressively acquire Chicago office assets due to the strong momentum in the market both on the asset and capital side. CBD Strong asset market fundamentals in both Class A and Class B space in the CBD have driven down vacancies, especially for large blocks of space, and have led to increased rental rates and rent growth. The CBD market saw 2.1 million square feet of positive net absorption and maintained a vacancy rate of 10.8 percent in 2015, near historical equilibrium levels of market performance. This increased market performance has led to increased investor confidence that the tenancy trend to the CBD will continue unabated. Investors in turn have aggressively pursued large transactions with nine transactions occurring at pricing over $300 million, with cap rates ranging from 6.5 percent down to 5.0 percent for newer trophy towers. Two of Chicago s largest properties - the Willis Tower at 3.85 million square feet and Aon Center at 2.7 million square feet - traded hands in 2015. In addition to purchasing the Willis Tower, Blackstone purchased the 1.3-million-square-foot River North Point. The most prominent buyers of large downtown towers were a mix of traditional institutional investors - such as Heitman, John Hancock, Blackstone and Prudential -and East Coast based private equity investors that have increased their portfolios in the CBD, such as 601 Companies and Amtrust Realty Corp. 2015 CBD Sale Transactions PROPERTY NAME / ADDRESS SIZE (SF) SALE DATE YEAR BUILT 333 West Wacker Drive 867,821 Nov-15 1983 Aon Center 200 E. Randolph Street Harris Bank HQ 111 W. Monroe Street 2,700,000 Oct-15 1972 1,200,000 Oct-15 1910 PRICING / PSF BUYER / SELLER OCCUPANCY $310,250,000 $358.00 $712,000,000 $264.00 $314,350,000 $262.00 PNC Realty Investors Inc Hines US Core OFF Fund 601W Companies Piedmont REIT Samsung Life Insurance CommonWealth Partners 95% 87% 98%
2015 CBD Sale Transactions PROPERTY NAME / ADDRESS SIZE (SF) SALE DATE River North Point 350 W. Mart Center Willis Tower 233 S. Wacker Drive YEAR BUILT 1,243,000 Jun-15 1977 3,787,238 Jun-15 1973 One South Wacker Drive 1,195,000 May-15 1982 River Center 111 N. Canal Street Mid Continental Plaza 55 E. Monroe Street UBS Tower 1 N. Wacker Drive 830,000 May-15 1918 1,300,000 Jan-15 1973 1,373,754 Jan-15 2001 PRICING / PSF BUYER / SELLER OCCUPANCY $378,000,000 $304.00 $1,300,000,000 $343.00 $344,000,000 $288.00 $304,000,000 $366.00 $367,300,000 $283.00 $746,000,000 $543.00 Blackstone Shorenstein Properties Blackstone Feil Organization John Hancock Realty Advisors Harbor Group International JP Morgan Asset Management Sterling Bay Prudential RE Investors Walton Street Capital Irvine Co Hines 94% 84% 86% 90% 86% 90% The CBD market saw a number of older buildings trade that have been repositioned and received capital reinvestment to accommodate creative office and technology users. As additional capital has been invested in these older buildings, investors have dropped many preconceived notions regarding the age of many of these pre-war buildings due to their strong building infrastructure and attributes that many open floor plan tenants find desirable. A strong example of this trend line was the sale of Sterling Bay s repositioned River Center, an 830,000-square-foot, technology-driven and transportation-advantaged asset in the West Loop that sold to JP Morgan AM for $304 million or $366.00 psf after being acquired earlier in the cycle for $100.00 psf. The CBD continues to be driven on both the asset and capital market side by the large number of corporations seeking a relocation to take advantage of highly skilled labor pools that are difficult to attract to suburban or secondary market locations. As this trend continues, we expect the pricing for downtown assets to remain strong across the board and for market fundamentals to continue to improve. Suburban In spite of continued headlines of tenant migration to the CBD, the Chicago suburbs are still experiencing improving fundamentals. Over 1.8 million square feet of positive net absorption occurred in Class A and B space in the suburban market in 2015. Increased leasing velocity and falling vacancies have led to modest to average increases in rental rates dependent on submarket, as the market has rebounded off of cyclical lows. In the first half of 2015, the suburban marketplace saw a large number suburban Chicago assets trade hands in larger portfolio transactions. The largest transfer of suburban investment property occurred in July when Blackstone purchased a 172- building national portfolio from GE Capital. The sale resented GE s exit from a portfolio purchased in 2007 by Arden Realty Trust. GE Capital also sold the 655,000-square-foot Class A Corporate 500 complex to Cornerstone RE Advisers, as part of the disposition of that portfolio. Other portfolios of note that included a large percentage of suburban Chicago assets included; Griffin Capital s acquisition of a 13-building national portfolio from Signature REIT that included in excess of 25 percent of the assets located in suburban Chicago, and Lone Star Fund s purchase of a 6-building, 1.2-million-square foot portfolio rom Columbia Property Trust that was composed entirely of assets located in the Chicago suburbs. Additionally, MB Realty purchased a nine-building portfolio of medical office buildings located throughout suburban Chicago. The second half of 2015 saw two trophy sales in the suburban market to Canadian investors. In October, MDC Properties purchased One O Hare Centre, one of the premier assets in the O Hare market, for $82.5 million of $217 per square foot. Later that month Adventus RE Partners acquired Highland Landmark V from Cornerstone RE Advisers for $285 psf or $71.6 million, a price that is above peak pricing of the last cycle. ONE O HARE CENTRE HIGHLAND LANDMARK V 2 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
2015 Suburban Office Sale Transactions PROPERTY NAME / ADDRESS SIZE (SF) SALE DATE YEAR BUILT PRICING / PSF BUYER / SELLER OCCUPANCY Highland Pointe 333 and 377 Butterfield Road, Lombard Edens Corporate Center 630 Dundee Road, Northbrook Highland Landmark V 3005 Highland Parkway, Downers Grove One O'Hare Center 6250 N. River Road, Des Plaines Cornerstone II 4300 Winfield Road, Warrenville MetroWest 55 Shuman Boulevard, Naperville Continental Executive Parke 75 N. Fairway Drive, Vernon Hills Westbrook Corporate Center 2 Westbrook Corporate Center, Westchester Commerce Plaza 2001 Spring Road, Oak Brook Pointe OHare 9550 W. Higgins Road, Des Plaines One Parkway North Deerfield Corridors III 2650 Warrenville Road, Downers Grove ConAgra Foods 215 W. Diehl Road, Naperville Acxiom Corp Bldgs 3333 Finley Road, Downers Grove 4 Parkway North Deerfield Corporate 500 Center 500 Lake Cook Road, Deerfield 9000 Waukegan Road Morton Grove Old Orchard Woods Bldgs A-C 9933-9977 Woods Drive, Skokie Esplanade at Locust Point 2001 Butterfield Road, Downers Grove Midwest Orthopaedics at Rush 1725 W. Harrison Street, Chicago Rush Copley Building I & II 2000 Ogden Avenue, Aurora 365,698 Oct-15 1985 188,040 Oct-15 1987 251,229 Oct-15 2008 380,360 Oct-15 1986 147,000 Sep-15 2001 220,000 Aug-15 1986 189,686 Aug-15 1996 1,101,920 Jul-15 1986 510,757 Jul-15 1972 262,991 Jul-15 2001 271,000 Jul-15 1988 222,000 Jun-15 2001 161,865 Jun-15 1988 321,852 Jun-15 1989 172,103 Jun-15 1999 655,872 Jun-15 1986 86,503 May-15 1988 112,633 Apr-15 1957 1,054,838 Feb-15 1990 117,000 Jan-15 2009 160,088 Jan-15 2009 $44,000,000 $120.00 $30,200,000 $161.00 $71,600,000 $285.00 $82,500,000 $217.00 $34,753,750 $236.00 $32,500,000 $148.00 $30,100,000 $159.00 $106,757,500 $97.00 $30,229,500 $59.00 $35,302,500 $134.00 $36,814,430 $136.00 $35,341,000 $159.00 $39,478,158 $244.00 $56,998,500 $177.00 $42,900,000 $249.00 $153,800,000 $234.00 $33,000,000 $381.00 $29,500,000 $262.00 $63,200,000 $540.00 $51,715,816 $323.00 Hamilton Partners LaSalle Investment KBS Realty Advisors The Davis Cos Adventus RE Ptnrs Cornerstone RE Advisers MDC Property Services Ltd CBRE Global CPA :18 Northwestern Mutual Equus Capital Partners Bixby Bridge Capital Dougherty RE Equity Advisors Janko Group Blackstone GE Capital Blackstone GE Capital Blackstone GE Capital Blackstone GE Capital Lone Star Funds Columbia Property Trust Lone Star Funds Columbia Property Trust Lone Star Funds Columbia Property Trust GC Essential Asset REIT Signature REIT Cornerstone RE Advisers GE Capital Real Estate MB Real Estate Pain Specialists of Greater Chicago MB Real Estate Waltoon Street Capital Accesso Partners LLC Hamilton Partners Harrison Street RE Capital Midwest Orthopaedics at Rush Ventas ARC Healthcare Trust In the fourth quarter of 2015, the suburban market saw an unprecedented volume of properties being marketed for sale. Over 24 suburban offerings were on the market during this time period. This is reflective of a desire of many owners to redeploy capital and the improved leasing velocity and fundamentals that have allowed assets to reach a point of equilibrium in terms of occupancy where they are able to capitalize favorably in the favorable debt capital market climate. Many of these transactions are expected to close in the first quarter of 2016. Pricing in the suburban Chicago market for core properties often occurs at a 100 bps to 150 bps cap rate premium over similarly occupied assets in the CBD. Although Class A space has seen strong rent growth over the past 24 months, it has not matched the overall rent growth exhibited in the CBD. On a gross rent basis, many Class A properties in the preferred submarkets such as the Northern Suburbs and O Hare have seen gross rents exceed historical high water marks; Class B properties have experience lesser growth in rents and their pricing is reflective of 80% 92% 100% 96% 100% 92% 100% 100% 73% 100% 93% 100% 88% 3 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
this trend. Pricing and investor interest is more aggressive the higher the quality of the asset and the submarket, whereas many of the commoditized Class B assets and less preferred submarkets in the Northwest suburbs have not exhibited pricing traction as widespread, even in spite of improving leasing fundamentals. Conclusion 2015 was a banner year for investment transactions in Chicago. Led by the strength of the CBD and the improvement of fundamentals in the suburbs, combined with the continued low interest rate environment, investors actively sought Chicago office assets. We expect this trend to continue into 2016 as increases in foreign capital and institutional capital flows increasingly focus on the market. Chicago in many respects is very economical on a yield and cap rate basis when compared to the coastal and other primary marketplaces, and other property types, such as industrial and multifamily, which have seen cap rates fall to historical low levels. Chicago will continue to benefit from the improvement in its diverse economy and the continued emergence of its technology and strong employment base as a key driver to the office market. 4 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
Industrial Steve Disse Principal Chicago Class A Industrial Reaches Sub-5.0 Percent Cap Rates for First Time in Chicago s History In conjunction with a phenomenal user market recovery, the industrial investment market in Chicago showed extraordinary strength in 2015, both in terms of pricing and sale volume. For the first time in history, stabilized Class A Chicago industrial product traded at below-5.0 percent cap rate levels. For the second year in a row Chicago trailed only Los Angeles as the most active sale market in the country. Approximately $3.3 billion of industrial investment product traded in Chicago in 2015, up from the previous record of $1.85 billion in 2014. For the sake of comparison, the prerecession high volume mark occurred in 2006 with total volume of $1.7 billion. The changing landscape of U.S. industrial investment activity is demonstrated by the fact that over $2.4 billion of this sale activity was the Chicago portion of four national, multi-city, entity level transactions purchased by foreign buyers. These transactions were the sale of Indcor Industrial, KTR, IIT and the recapitalization of Exeter. These four transactions totaled over $20 billion in total consideration nationally and demonstrates how foreign capital has, for the first time, identified U.S. industrial product as a favored real estate investment alternative. In addition to new foreign capital, domestic capital sources including pension funds, private equity funds, and both private and public REIT s have more available capital allocated to industrial product than ever before. For core investors, industrial provides a yield premium to multifamily and trophy office. Across the U.S., 23 consecutive quarters of falling vacancy rates along with construction levels below peak years have institutional real estate investors optimistic about the stability of the industrial sector for the next decade. Steady economic growth and the growing presence of e-commerce are projected to continue to drive tenant demand and bolster investors underwriting. While never a highly leveraged sector, industrial sale volume is continuing to be aided by the availability of historical low debt capital. Both insurance company and conduit debt are readily available for long term fixed-rate executions. Bank debt from three- to seven-year terms is plentiful. For some select transactions, banks are now offering loans with limited or no personal guarantees. This variety of debt capital along with a wall of available equity has pushed pricing for Chicago industrial to historic highs. Pricing Prices for all classes of industrial real estate in Chicago rose significantly over the course of 2015. Increased construction costs, rising rents and increased investor demand pushed select core Class A buildings in Chicago to sub-5.0 percent cap rate pricing for the first time
in history. This represents a 75-basis-point decline in cap rates over the last 18 months. Class B pricing has increased much more slowly post-recession, with cap rates for Class B and C product still above pre-recession levels. Class B cap rates are in the mid 7.0 percent-plus cap rate range with a much thinner buyer pool. Low return pension fund buyers haven t returned to Chicago s Class B market. Chicago s new core pricing levels has created a pricing spread in excess of 225 basis points between Class A and B product. For comparison sake, the 2007 Class A to B spread was approximately 75 basis points. This 225-basis-point cap rate spread is a historical high. Below is a chart enumerating the details of the 10 transactions in 2015 with the lowest cap rates. We expect comparable pricing throughout 2016. Ten Lowest Cap Rate Transactions - 2015* ADDRESS LaSalle / Panattoni Turnberry Lakes Industrial Portfolio Roselle, IL 7711 Gross Point Road Skokie, IL I-88 Gateway Logistics Center North Aurora, IL Chancellory Business Park Portfolio Wood Dale & Elk Grove Village, IL I-55 Chicago Industrial Portfolio Romeoville & Lincolnshire, IL 551 St. James Gate Bolingbrook, IL 1100 N. Swift Road Addison, IL SALE PRICE / PRICE PSF CAP RATE SIZE (SF) BUYER / SELLER LISTING BROKER $83,500,000 $117.02 $21,000,000 $139.90 $46,200,000 $76.41 $71,500,000 $111.37 $69,600,000 $87.40 $18,000,000 $62.20 $10,700,000 $83.80 4.8% 713,523 5.0% 150,105 5.0% 604,565 4.7% Current 5.1% Stabilized 642,003 5.25% 796,349 5.25% 289,357 5.3% 127,686 DB / RREEF LaSalle Investment Mgmt. / Panattoni Development Private LLC Panattoni Development American Realty Advisors USAA/Opus Development LaSalle Investment Mgmt. Heitman RE Investment Mgmt. Industrial Property Trust LaSalle Investment Mgmt. LaSalle Investment Mgmt. Private LLC Lincoln Property Company Private LLC Cushman & Wakefield COMMENTS Core portfolio of three buildings built from 2012-2014 and two buildings completed in December 2015. Recently completed small bay facility that was 100% leased to three tenants shortly after completion. New facility completed in Q2-2015; Leased to privately held Midwest Warehouse Inc. for seven years. Seven small bay industrial buildings in the master planned Chancellory Business Park; Income stream from premium credits that should grow rapidly. Five building, core portfolio involving four facilities in I-55 submarket and one 98,400- SF building in Lincolnshire. 10-year lease with privately held LaGrou Distribution; Class A building with above-standard loading and trailer parking Sale/leaseback of 20-year-old facility. 7-year lease term. 9020 Murphy Road Woodridge, IL $22,000,000 $85.64 Met Life Real Estate 2.4% Current 5.65% Stabilized 256,880 Investments Conor Commercial Multi-tenant facility purchased at construction completion; Kellogg s had pre-leased 53% of the building, leaving 121,667 SF available and sold in warm, unlit shell condition Regent O'Hare Portfolio Elk Grove Village, IL $59,800,000 $62.58 5.8% 955,460 Draper & Kramer DRG/Pearlmark JV None Off-market purchase of eight buildings; Portfolio was not marketed 2501 Galvin Drive Elgin, IL $28,750,000 $85.64 4.33% Current 5.87% Stabilized 342,620 Zurich Financial Conor Commercial Newmark Grubb Knight Frank 100% leased, cross-docked, Class A facility *Cap rate calculated on total net rent Conclusion Class A product is expected to continue to price at historical highs in Chicago. There will be a severe shortage of quality product on the market in Chicago and in the other gateway markets in the U.S. We will continue to see new spec development almost exclusively institutionally funded, but we do not see any significant risk of overbuilding in Chicago in 2016. For the very best deals, cap rates will be 5.0 percent or below. The biggest question in regards to Chicago industrial is what will be the volume and pricing level of Chicago Class B industrial product. We believe that the aforementioned spreads are too high and will shrink. The first half of 2016 will present a strong buying opportunity for quality Class B portfolios in Chicago. 6 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
Multifamily Brian Pohl Executive Vice President Chicago Market Fundamentals Remain Strong As Occupancy Hits Five-Year Peak In 2015, multifamily occupancy rose 6.0 basis points year-over-year to 96.5 percent, a five-year high, despite elevated supply numbers. The increased demand for rental product was significant in 2015, as annual demand rose 23 percent to nearly 8,800 renters over the last four quarters. According to MPF Research, despite the heightened demand for apartments, the Chicago Metro market experienced only moderate rent growth of 4.0 percent to an average of $1,314 per unit or $1.56 PSF. This is primarily due to over 6,600 units being delivered to the Chicagoland area. 2016 Forecast: Chicago Metro Area Annual Supply (Units) 5,280 Annual Demand (Units) 8,778 Occupancy 96.5% Annual Occupancy Change +0.6% Annual Rent Change +3.8% Annual Revenue Change +4.4% Annual Jobs Change 72,000 Source: MPF Research Chicago has become a focal point for institutional investors and developers alike as they continue to flood the market. Overall market conditions in 2015 were driven by determined investor appetite and fervent competition for core assets. While we continue to see the urban core assets trade in the mid-4.0 percent to low-5.0 percent range, other urban submarkets have experienced additional compression in cap rates (mid 5 percent to 8 percent) as investors searching for yield have pushed out to newly popular urban submarkets. Contrary to the recent urban renewal, the first-ring suburban markets have seen a renaissance of investor interest. Townships look to mimic urban communities by offering immediate proximity to public transportation, shops and entertainment; as well as restaurants in hopes of attracting millennials and empty nesters with highly walkable suburban lifestyle centers. This shift is exemplified by the increased interest from both regional and national developers, with nearly 3,000 units delivered to the suburbs in 2015. Overall sales volume throughout the Chicago Metro area totaled $3.62 billion in 2015, rising a significant 46 percent from the prior year. Of the 187 properties that traded this past year, the average capitalization rate remained stable, dropping slightly to 6.23 percent annually while the average unit price rose to $166,000/unit (Source: Real Capital Analytics)
2015 Core Downtown Multifamily Investment Sales NAME ADDRESS PRICE UNITS PRICE/UNIT CAP RATE DATE YEAR BUILT Belmont Tower 510 W. Belmont Avenue $64,629,500 277 $233,319 -- 11/19/2015 1968 Morgan at Loyola Station 6464 N. Sheridan Road $44,600,000 152 $293,421 -- 10/29/2015 2009 Carriage House Lofts 1545 S. State Street $20,250,000 81 $250,000 6.75% 10/12/2015 1898 777 State 777 S. State Street $85,000,000 330 $257,576 6.00% 8/31/2015 1978 Stanford Apartments 39 W. Division Street $21,000,000 70 $287,671 -- 8/31/2015 1890 Dwight Lofts 642 S. Clark Street $105,150,000 178 $590,730 6.10% 8/7/2015 1910/2008 Fullerton Parkway Tower 415 W. Fullerton Parkway $30,700,000 101 $303,960 -- 7/28/2015 1929 Circa922 922 W. Washington Boulevard $74,500,000 150 $496,666 -- 6/19/2015 2010/2015 Burnham Pointe 730 S. Clark Street $126,000,000 298 $422,819 4.75% 6/17/2015 2008 Elaine Place 3402 N. Elaine Place $50,500,000 174 $290,230 -- 6/6/2015 1925 Marshall Field Garden Apartments 1336 N. Sedgwick Street $86,500,000 628 $137,739 8.00% 4/30/2015 1932/1993 Automatic Lofts 410 S. Morgan Street $41,500,000 142 $292,254 5.80% 4/2/2015 1910/2006 The Chicagoan 750 N. Rush Street $104,000,000 221 $470,588 -- 3/17/2015 1990 OneEleven 111 W. Wacker Drive $328,225,000 504 $651,240 -- 1/1/2015 2014 Urban Construction and Development Pipeline Source: CoStar 2015 saw record development in downtown Chicago as 3,700 units were delivered to the downtown core. Steady development has continued in the historically busy submarkets including the Loop, South Loop, and River North, while some newer markets saw large scale developments like Gateway and Arkadia Tower in the West Loop, several properties in Uptown, and the much anticipated delivery of New City. As empty nesters flock to the conveniences of urban living, young professionals continue to set up residences in downtown neighborhoods and many young families make the decision to build a life in the city instead of making the move to the suburbs. All of these factors continue to promote downtown residential development as there continues to be pent up demand for rental product in many of the city s submarkets and as market metrics support prolonged new apartment deliveries. Looking forward into 2016, the South Loop and River North both remain a hotbed of development, while Logan Square will deliver more than 500 units. However, two key policy changes will affect the downtown development market in 2016. The new Affordable Requirement Ordinance, which went into effect October 2015, forces developers to set aside 20 percent of the total units being delivered as affordable, or pay a fee-in-lieu of $100,000 per required unit. This change will adversely affect land prices for multifamily development sites moving forward. To offset the ARO, the city has proposed extending the Transit Oriented Development expanding the size of the TOD zones in order to spur development near public transportation. 2015 Construction Completed PROPERTY DEVELOPER UNITS DELIVERED LOOP / SOUTH LOOP AMLI Lofts AMLI Residential 389 2/15 JeffJack Convergint Technologies 190 4/15 RIVER NORTH / STREETERVILLE Eight 0 Five Smithfield Properties 292 10/15 Jones Chicago Gerding Edlen 188 3/15 State and Chestnut Newcastle 367 9/15 North Water DRW Trading 398 5/15 EDGEWATER / RAVENSWOOD E2 Fifield Realty 356 5/15 No 1325 Wilson Flats Chicago 121 5/15 No 5411 Winthrop Flats Chicago 98 5/15 No 5718 Winthrop Flats Chicago 75 5/15 Ravenswood Terrace Belgravia Group 150 1/15 8 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
2015 Construction Completed PROPERTY DEVELOPER UNITS DELIVERED NEAR NORTH / WESTSIDE Gateway West Loop Lennar Multifamily 167 9/15 Arkadia Tower White Oak Realty 350 3/15 The Madison at Racine Intercontinental Real Estate 216 3/15 New City Structured Development 199 10/15 Warren Ashland Place Michigan Avenue Real Estate 52 3/15 Development Pipeline PROPERTY DEVELOPER UNITS DELIVERED LOOP / SOUTH LOOP 619 S LaSalle Marc Realty 106 2/16 Arc at Old Colony CA Ventures 109 1/16 MILA John Buck Company 402 6/16 1000 S Clark JDL Development 469 7/16 Block 37 CIM Group 694 10/16 1001 S State Golub & Company 397 1/17 RIVER NORTH / STREETERVILLE Wolf Point West Magellan Development 507 1/16 Lofts at River East Group Fox 285 1/16 Xavier Gerding Edlen 240 1/16 The Hensley Akara Partners 51 3/16 Moment Golub & Company 490 7/16 Optima II Optima 498 1/17 347 W Chestnut Fifield Partners 347 5/17 833 N Clark Ryan Companies 373 4/17 720 N LaSalle Magellan Development 298 7/17 The Hudson Onni Real Estate 240 11/17 LAKEVIEW / EDGEWATER Kenmore Place Horizon Realty Group 58 1/16 The Main Riverside Investment 112 7/16 Fletcher Lofts BJB Partners 80 10/16 Belmont-Clark Tower Blitzlake Capital 90 11/16 2950 N Sheridan Wirtz Realty 82 7/17 NEAR NORTH / WESTSIDE 1237 N Milwaukee LG Development 58 5/16 500 N Milwaukee Akara Partners 227 12/16 Armitage Residences Spearhead Properties 78 11/16 171 N Halsted Focus Development 227 3/17 HYDE PARK City Hyde Park Antheus Capital 179 2/16 9 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
2015 Core Suburban Investment Sales NAME ADDRESS PRICE UNITS PRICE/UNIT CAP RATE DATE YEAR BUILT Grand Reserve of Naperville 504 Chamberlain Lane, Naperville $66,700,000 319 $209,091 5.00% 12/1/2015 1997 Orchard Village 1240 W. Indian Trail Road, Aurora $34,500,000 272 $126,838 5.13% 11/5/2015 2000 Meadows at River Run 350 Whitewater Drive, Bolingbrook $58,500,000 374 $156,417 5.50% 10/30/2015 2001 Clover Ridge East 1445 E. Evergreen Drive, Palatine $41,500,000 276 $150,362 5.50% 10/27/2015 1986/2011 Aurora at Summerfield 1847 Clubhouse Drive, Aurora $62,100,000 368 $168,750 5.25% 10/13/2015 2000 TGM McDowell Place 1647 Westminster Drive, Naperville $64,900,000 400 $162,250 -- 9/1/2015 1988/2008 Reserve at Hoffman Estates 875 Pacific Avenue, Hoffman Estates $86,300,000 642 $134,424 -- 7/21/2015 1985 Wheaton 121 121 N Cross Street, Wheaton $95,750,000 306 $312,908 -- 5/21/2015 2014 Randall Highlands 1241 Ritter Street, North Aurora $32,115,000 146 $219,996 5.50% 3/31/2015 2013 Stratford Green Apartments 492 Vinings Drive, Bloomingdale $33,425,000 192 $174,089 6.00% 3/12/2015 1997 Brookdale on the Park 1652 Brookdale Road, Naperville $34,275,000 252 $136,012 -- 1/13/2015 1986 Suburban Construction Activity And Development Pipeline Investors searching for higher yields in the suburbs have driven developers to follow equity as properties including Tapestry Glenview, Midtown Square (Glenview) and One Arlington led suburban development. Overall nearly 3,000 units were delivered to the suburbs in 2015, as the trend of urbanizing suburban hubs continued to spur development offering residents immediate proximity to public transportation, shops and entertainment, as well as restaurants. Construction Completed In Last Four Quarters Chicago Suburbs SUBMARKET PROPERTY DEVELOPER UNITS DELIVERED Glenview Midtown Square Trammell Crow 138 1/15 Lisle Arbor Place of Lisle Ryan Companies 80 10/15 Arlington Heights One Arlington Stoneleigh Companies 214 3/15 Northbrook Tapestry Glenview Lennar Multifamily 290 11/15 Lake of the Hills Villas of Lake in the Hills DKI Real Estate 60 9/15 Developer Pipeline SUBMARKET PROPERTY DEVELOPER UNITS DELIVERED Park Ridge Park 205 Carlyle Group 115 1/16 Oak Park Vantage Wood Partners 270 3/16 Deerfield AMLI Deerfield AMLI Residential 240 1/16 Vernon Hills Oaks of Vernon Hills Hamilton Partners 336 2/16 Deerfield Woodview Moyer Properties 248 1/16 Wheeling Northgate Crossing REVA Development 288 1/16 Northbrook Northshore 770 Morningside Group 347 7/16 Aurora Metro 59 Next Gen Development 460 7/16 Orland Park Orland Park Crossing REVA Development 231 9/16 Elmhurst Elmhurst 255 Morningside Group 192 12/16 McHenry Patriot Estates Cunat 208 12/16 McHenry Prairie Lakes Cunat 200 12/16 Lombard Highlands of Lombard Glen Star 181 10/16 Valparaiso Lakes of Valparaiso Weiss Entities 407 1/17 10 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
2016 Forecast Looking forward to 2016, there are several key factors that will contribute to the apartment market. The major concern is whether demand can keep pace with record supply levels projected for 2016. With over 11,000 units currently under construction, it is likely the market will experience a drop in occupancy. How significant the decline depends heavily on the future growth of the local economy as the municipal and state fiscal future remains uncertain. However, fundamentals remain strong as both millennials and baby boomers continue to choose the ease and flexibility of renting over owning. There are additional fears that Class A properties will struggle with occupancy in 2016 as more units are delivered, while demand and occupancy will continue to rise for Class B and C product. A good indicator of this will be Class A concessions offered in 2016. WHEATON 121 11 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
Retail Peter Block Executive Vice President Chicago Secondary and Tertiary Markets Getting More Attention from Investors 2015 was a robust year for retail investment sales. The markets built on a strong 2014 and the continued low interest rate environment propelled both the volume of sales and the continued compression in cap rates. The picture was helped by solid growth in the economy and continued consumer spending. The economy was considered so stable that we saw our first increase in interest rates in nearly 10 years. Total sales of real estate was very proximate but greater than 2014. The average price per square foot increased from roughly $250.00 per square foot to approaching $270.00 per square foot. Correspondingly, we saw cap rates reduce by another 40 basis points showing an estimated average rate below 6.5 percent. Last year, we wrote about how the internet was changing the retailing landscape. Turning that to a more consumer focus, the way people shop is changing and more difficult to understand. The consumer demographic is changing from baby boomers to the millennials. Correspondingly, the shopping behaviors are quite different as well. The new consumer has a different value proposition than the baby boomers and wants more choice, more personalization and a say in the products. Retailers and landlords will have to address the shopping experience differently. This new generation of shoppers will push for individuality increasing the pressure on malls and spurring a more neighborhood experience. Source PWC Retailing 2015 The Year In Review Investors continued to focus on high-quality assets in prime locations in 2015, but a growing number have continued expanding into secondary and tertiary markets in search of higher yields. According to Real Capital Analytics, acquisitions of retail properties totaled $45.6 billion, up by only 11.8 percent from the first half of 2015, as retail property values surpass other sectors such as apartments and CBD offices. Although sales volume continues to be dominated by the Major Metro markets, secondary markets accounted for the lion s share of the increase. Capital is plentiful not only from institutional investors and equity funds, but also by individuals, family trusts and local syndicates. Despite a decline in capital flows from Canada, crossborder investors have increasingly ramped up their activity in the U.S., with European and Chinese investors emerging as the most active in 2014. Economic Overview 2015 was a year of further cap rate compression and we are seeing rates very close to the last market peak. In the net lease retail sector we are seeing historic lows. We have seen a slight up-tick in the interest rate from the Federal Reserve, but given the wide historic equity spread in capitalization rates and low inflation, the real estate development and investment market should remain stable even with the small increase in interest rates. According to CoStar, in the last couple years we have seen vacancy rates falling, reaching 5.7 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2015 (CoStar). This gives us a good reason to believe that it will remain low in 2016. Deliveries continue to increase despite being below their long-term average and vacancy and rental rates are also experiencing positive trends.
Retail Inventory While retail projects in the pipeline continue to increase from the downturn in 2011, deliveries for 2015 were below the historical average. The 2015 deliveries were split 55 percent multi-tenant properties and 45 percent single tenant properties. Of the projects currently under construction for 2015, 76.5 percent are preleased. Historical Deliveries Capitalization Rates and The Federal Funds Rate Increase Retail cap rates continue to compress and we did see a.25 percent increase in the Federal Funds rate. Historically speaking, this increase by the Federal Reserve will not automatically trigger an increase in capitalization rates. Income Growth Vs. Cap Rate Compression and Pricing When taking into account all property types in 2015, the Commercial Property Price Index increased by approximately 10.0 percent. Without much room for further compression, long-term future increases in pricing will need to be fueled by NOI growth. NOI growth going forward will be dependent on real GDP growth and increased consumer sales. In the short term, current decreasing vacancy should drive rental rates upward keeping NOI moving in a positive direction. Sales Volume U.S. Versus Chicago Market Performance VOLUME $ (MIL) CHICAGO UNITED STATES ACTUAL CHANGE VS. PRIOR ACTUAL CHANGE VS. PRIOR Past 12 Months $3,497.90 27% $82,429.70-4% Q4 2015 $669.40-39% $16,480.40-17% NO. OF PROPERTIES Past 12 Months 264 7% 6,656-18% Q4 2015 41-38% 1,258-30% TOTAL SF Past 12 Months 16,261,569 22% 397,204,234-9% Q4 2015 3,174,969-27% 82,634,043-21% PRICE PER SF Past 12 Months $253.00 12% $222.00 10% Q4 2015 $255.00-16% $228.00 10% AVERAGE CAP RATE Past 12 Months 6.44% -25 6.55% -22 Q4 2015 6.76% 28 6.30% -27 *Based on properties and portfolios $2.5 million or greater Source: Real Capital Analytics Throughout 2015, Chicago s retail investment sales volume totaled nearly $3.5 billion across 264 properties (with an average $253.00 per square foot). This was a 27 percent increase in sales volume from 2014 and a 7 percent increase in number of properties sold. Despite Chicago s significant year-over-year increase in total volume, U.S. total retail sales decreased 4 percent to just under $82.5 billion. In 2015 6,656 properties were sold in the United States a 18 percent decrease from 2014 (with a national average of $222.00 per square foot). Top US Retail Markets in 2015 (Sales Volume Through November) MARKET SALES VOLUME NO. OF PROPERTIES SOLD Midwest - Chicago $3.14 billion 253 Mid-Atlantic Baltimore $534 million 47 Northeast Boston $1.2 billion 110 Southeast Atlanta $1.72 billion 146 Southwest Austin $558.6 million 52 West East Bay $802 million 69 Source: Real Capital Analytics 13 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
In 2015, capital flows coming into Chicago were dominated by institutions acquiring $1.7 billion in retail assets for the first time since 2012. In 2014, private investors led capital flow at 47 percent, in 2015 this decreased to 32 percent acquiring $1.1 billion in the Chicago market. Chicago s largest sale in 2015 came from a portfolio sale of three properties along N Michigan Avenue. Known as 669 Mag Mile, the three properties combined for 148,245 square feet and sold for $295 million. Major tenants occupying the buildings include: Nike (57,316 SF), Garmin (15,607 SF) and Cole Haan (11,570 SF). Meyer Bergman, a privately held real estate investment management fund headquartered in London, purchased the portfolio from J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. Notable Tenants In The Market The sustained competition between Mariano s and Whole Foods throughout the year took a significant turn when Kroger announced the acquisition of Roundy s, the parent company to Mariano s. Additionally, the purchase of Rite Aid by Walgreens has raised questions among landlords, and we can expect to see decelerated growth in both property types, especially with new construction. Mattress Firm has quickly emerged, taking new space and acquiring existing stores throughout the market. 45% 2% 33% 18% 25% 12% 32% 29% INVESTMENT ACTIVITY BUYER TYPES Chicago 16% 3% 32% 47% 49% 11% 7% 32% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2012 2013 2014 2015 (YTD) Institutional Cross-Border Public Listed/REITs Private User/Other 45% United States 23% 8% 21% 44% 4% 2015 (YTD) Source: Real Capital Analytics Chicagoland s Largest Retail Investments 2015 ADDRESS / LOCATION SALE PRICE CAP RATE 669 N Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL $295,000,000 N/A Westfield Hawthorne Mall, Vernon Hills, IL $196,600,000 7.80% 58-104 E. Oak Street, Chicago, IL $176,000,000 N/A Streets of Woodfield 601 N. Martingale Road, Schaumburg, IL $168,500,000 N/A Roosevelt Collection (Retail) Chicago, IL $116,500,000 N/A Wicker Park Commons 1279 N. Milwaukee Avenue, Chicago, IL $94,750,000 N/A 100 W. Higgins Road, Barrington, IL $93,500,000 N/A 3 Orland Park Place, Orland Park, IL $88,600,000 N/A Chicagoland s Lowest Cap Rates 2015 ADDRESS / LOCATION SALE PRICE CAP RATE CVS 3780 Willow Road, Northbrook, IL $5,200,000 4.50% 7222 N. Harlem Avenue, Chicago, IL $1,350,000 4.61% CVS 1714 N. Sheffield Avenue, Chicago, IL $12,605,000 4.77% 10 E. Delaware Place, Chicago, IL $4,125,000 4.93% CVS 2360 W. Indian Trail, Aurora, IL $2,700,000 5.00% 1111 Chicago Avenue, Evanston, IL $9,120,000 5.00% 25 Waukegan Road, Glenview, IL $50,000,000 5.10% 5 W. Irving Park Road, Bensenville, IL $6,500,000 5.90% 14 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
Chicagoland s Additional Notable Transactions ADDRESS / LOCATION SALE PRICE PRICE PSF 59 E. Oak Street, Chicago, IL $47,400,000 $2,096.00 Ed Debevics, Chicago, IL $17,000,000 $2,073.00 60 E. Lake Street, Chicago, IL $17,000,000 $1,506.00 949-955 W. Lake Street, Chicago, IL $5,300,000 $1,641.00 Lincoln Park Centre 755 W. North Avenue, Chicago, IL $64,000,000 $1,024.00 Corepower Yoga, Chicago, IL $2,100,000 $653.00 Shops at GlenPointe, Northbrook, IL $65,750,000 $458.00 What We Expect in 2016 Cap rates remained at their record-lows throughout the year, especially within the net-leased sector. Driven primarily by private capital, we expect these rates to remain compressed, especially in core markets. Limited supply of quality net-leased assets played a bigger role in the low rates, and should continue through the next year. The more conservative institutional investors and REITs will look towards secondary and tertiary markets to find higher yield. Retail centers without major anchors are experiencing lower transaction volume, and will continue. Competition for grocery anchor space within retail centers will drive the demand for such assets throughout 2016. 15 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
Seniors Housing Jeffrey Hyman Senior Vice President Chicago 2015 Sales Overview Seniors Housing facility transaction activity in the metropolitan Chicago area in 2015 continued the somewhat reduced pace established in 2014 with several mitigating factors. There were fewer transactions with a lower gross dollar volume noted in The Real Estate Information Services (REIS) data. In 2014 there were 14 transactions for a gross dollar value of $276,003,909, while 2015 witnessed nine transactions for a gross dollar volume of $188,170,500, a reduction of 31.8 percent. It should be noted that this represents a two year reduction in the number of facilities transacted at resulting reduced gross sales volume. The aggressive buying mode of the REITs and other larger acquirers has consumed most of the highly desirable assets in the region. The REITs and other industry buyers have turned to smaller markets for their acquisition appetite, notably in downstate Illinois and outside of St. Louis, MO. Predictably, the newer, well-located facilities performed at the upper end of this asset class. It was not unusual for single asset facilities to trade at sub-7 cap rates. Seniors Housing Classifications Widely accepted definitions of Seniors Housing, from those with least amount of care and services to those requiring nursing care for residents, are Independent Living (IL), Assisted Living (AL), which might or might not include Memory Care (MC) dedicated units and Nursing Care (NC). IL Independent Living AL Assisted Living MC Memory Care NC Nursing Care 2015 Top Sales Transactions PROPERTY NAME / LOCATION TOTAL UNITS BUYER / SELLER PRICE SALE DATE Renaissance Park South, Chicago 245 Renaissance At South Shore Chicago 247 Bronzeville Park, Chicago 302 The Renaissance At Midway, Chicago 249 The Grove At Lincoln Park, Chicago 109 The Grove Of Skokie, Skokie 149 The Summit Of Uptown, Park Ridge Wyndemere Senior Living Community, Wheaton 135 303 Parkshore Estates, Chicago 318 MS Park South LP Halsted Associates LLC Mainstreet Investment SS Property I LLC Mainstreet Investment Chevy Associates Mainstreet Investment Claridge At Cicero LP Lincoln Park Property Holdings Trust 10-37886-09 Skokie Property Holdings LLC Chicago Title Land Trust Co. CSH Park Ridge LLC Parkway Bank & Trust Bridge Investment Group Holdings Life Care Services LLC Parkshore Estates Nursing Realty Chicago Title Land Trust #8002364919 TOTAL 2,057 $188,170,500 $28,748,000 10/30/2015 $22,969,500 10/30/2015 $26,806,000 10/30/2015 $27,400,000 10/30/2015 $5,953,000 10/18/2015 $8,598,500 10/28/2015 $2,764,000 9/15/2015 $44,547,000 3/15/2015 $20,384,500 1/27/2015
New Development Trends Transactions of existing facilities has abated somewhat. However, the infusion of new capital into the development sector has fueled the search for new development sites. In addition to the REITs, new development capital is being sourced by new players in the market such as Kaufman Jacobs, Waterstone Investments, Summit Smith and Ryan Companies, among others. One industry trend that is apparent is cautionary. The industry has been self-governing as new facility construction follows market assessment of unmet bed demand. This is one asset class that does not usually allow replication of facilities in a trade area. However, we are witnessing near saturation levels of construction activity, leading to new bed supply in markets such as Highland Park, Lombard and North Brook. One mitigating factor is the age of the current senior housing stock and the occupancy levels in the market. A market with high occupancies (90%+), high rents with older senior facilities might warrant new construction and supply. Out of market players such as Artis Senior Living, Autumn Leaves, Silverado, Cedarhurst Senior Living, harbor Retirement Associates, South Bay Partners and Spectrum are joining locally based companies such as Ryan Companies, Pathway Senior Living and Senior Lifestyle in developing larger facilities. As suitable development sites become more difficult to source, developers have become more flexible in their facility format. Going vertical is acceptable with new companies looking at in-fill sites in Skokie, Orland Park and other close-in suburbs. According to REIS data, there are 28 facilities in planning or underway comprising approximately 3,007 new units to existing inventory, an increase of 6.7 per cent. 2015 Construction Planning FACILITY NAME SUBCLASS CITY, STATE STAGE UNITS Facility Name N/A (3400 West Pratt Avenue) Continued Care Community Lincolnwood, IL Proposed 385 Windsor Estates Seniors Housing Club Hills, IL Under Construction 200 Overture Edgewater Beach Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Proposed 186 Bright Oaks Of Wood Dale Seniors Housing Wood Dale, IL Under Construction 150 Facility Name N/A (1815 Ridge Avenue) Seniors Housing Evanston, IL Proposed 150 Artis Senior Living Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Planned 140 Rosenwald Apartments PH I Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Under Construction 138 Imani Village PH IV Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Proposed 120 Monteclare Senior Residences Of Lawndale Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Proposed 120 Facility Name N/A (Busse & Greenwood Mixed Use) Seniors Housing Park Ridge, IL Proposed 106 Terravista Residential Community Seniors Housing Oak Brook, IL Under Construction 106 Facility Name N/A (W Walton St @ N Franklin St) Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Proposed 106 Life Center Elderly Housing Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Planned 101 South Suburban Of Blue Island Seniors Housing Blue Island, IL Proposed 97 Patriot Partners Care Center Seniors Housing Northbrook, IL Proposed 96 Midway Pointe Senior Residences Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Planned 95 St. Boniface Senior Living Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Proposed 89 Riverdale Senior Apartments Seniors Housing Summit, IL Proposed 78 Cicero And George Elderly Housing Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Under Construction 70 Kennedy Jordan Manor Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Planned 70 Wisdom Village Of Northlake Seniors Housing Northlake, IL Proposed 69 Anthem Memory Care Memory Care Burr Ridge, IL Under Construction 66 Anthem Memory Care of Tinley Park Memory Care Tinley Park, IL Proposed 66 The Merion (Addition) Seniors Housing Evanston, IL Under Construction 65 The Burnham At Woodlawn (Parc Redevelopment PH II) Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Under Construction 64 J. Michael Fitzgerald Apartments Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Planned 63 The Lodge Of Northbrook PH IV Seniors Housing Northbrook, IL Planned 47 St. Edmunds Tower Annex Subsidized/Low Income Seniors Housing Chicago, IL Under Construction 34 TOTAL 3,077 17 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
Active Investors Nationally and locally, this segment continues to be dominated by publicly traded and non-traded, privately held REITs. Investment entities active in other real estate asset classes have joined the REITs, already invested in senior housing, to invest with senior living providers to gain market share. In some instances, the REITs and other investment entities are funding multiple new developments with different senior provider partners in competing markets. As prime development sites are identified and acquired, secondary, but not necessarily substandard, sites are being acquired. Again, demographics and existing supply govern new facility locations. The REITs have directed their favored Operating Partners to locate appropriate sites for development in prime markets throughout the country. Chicago and its extended markets in southern Wisconsin, Northwest Indiana and downstate are benefiting from this activity. Out of market players such as Artis Senior Living, Autumn Leaves, Silverado, Cedarhurst Senior Living, harbor Retirement Associates, South Bay Partners and Spectrum are joining locally based companies such as Ryan Companies, Pathway Senior Living and Senior Lifestyle in developing larger facilities. As suitable development sites become more difficult to source, developers have become more flexible in their facility format. Going vertical is acceptable with new companies looking at in-fill sites in Skokie, Lincolnwood, Park Ridge and other close-in suburbs. According to REIS data, there are 28 facilities in planning or underway,comprising approximately 3,007 new units to existing inventory, an increase of 6.7 per cent from 2014. According to NIC MAP, the leading resource of senior housing data, this trend will continue based on several factors. The first Baby Boomers turned 65 in 2011, with an additional 10,000 reaching 65 each day. This influx of mid 60 s population will continue to require supply for the foreseeable future, albeit not in great numbers for at least another 10 years. Unlike their predecessors, these Boomers stay active longer, with better health and wealth and eventually look for some type of senior housing as they age, closer to home. The desire to be near family, friends and the communities they have grown with has influenced their search in the same markets in which they have resided in for years. The growth and development of senior housing facilities is primarily a suburban-based phenomenon. This is based on homogeneous demographic economics and the availability of suitable sites for development. A more recent trend is the inclusion of Independent Living as a component of the new developments. This is a result of the improving economy and restoration of home based equity, allowing the sale of current residences and resulting equity. As a further indication of the improving economy and the desire for a change in housing accommodations, a few new companies, notably Avenida Partners has designed a business model to develop Active Adult Communities with amenities on a rental basis. Their thinking is that older homeowners will want to sell and not buy their next place of living. The recent recession resulted in these homeowners locked into their homes with diminishing or disappearing equity. As their equity has been restored to pre-recession levels, they do not feel a need to own their next residence. Interestingly, this is following a national trend across all age brackets as home ownership is not necessarily the obvious next choice for living accommodations. Elderly Adults as a Share of the U.S. ELDERLY ADULTS AS A SHARE OF THE U.S. POPULATION Population 2000-2050 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1.5% 4.3% 1.8% 4.2% 6.5% 7.1% Baby Boomers Start Turning 65 2.3% 6.9% Baby Boomers Start Turning 85 Ages 85 or Older Ages 75 to 84 10.5% Ages 65 to 74 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on population projections reported in The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2012). www.cbo.gov/publication/43288. Note: Members of the baby-boom generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) started turning 65 in 2011 and will turn 85 beginning in 2031. Construction Chart Title Here By Property Type 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 Current Construction 222 *Includes all units/beds in properties under construction with a majority of independent living service units, including CCRCs. CCR Chart Title Here 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 250 200 150 100 50 0 Construction vs. Inventory 2Q2014 3Q2014 22 4Q2014 25 20 15 10 5 0 Current Construction Construction vs. Inventory *Data included are formed from subsets of majority il, majority al and majority nc property types. These data are broker out for your convenience. 18 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
fiduciary environment. As of the fourth quarter of 2013, the NPI comprised 7,029 properties with a combined market value of $353.9 billion. 10 individual NPI indices. As of the fourth quarter of 2013, seniors housing properties have generated an annualized return of 14.6 percent since the fourth quarter of 2003. This compares to an annualized return of 8.6 percent for the entire NPI. Seniors Exhibit 1.g NCREIF Seniors Annualized Housing Total Returns has outperformed four other asset classes, over the last eight years. Across Select Property Types in 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year Periods As of 12/31/2013 ANNUALIZED TOTAL RETURNS Exhibit 1.h 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% NPI Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail Seniors Housing Supply and Demand Annualized Total Equity Returns Development of senior housing facilities is based on need-driven economics, noted earlier. Developers and their financial resources determine the senior housing need All REITs S&P 500 Healthcare REITs of a trade area, taking into consideration existing facilities and those in planning and 35% development, resulting in a definable number of the number of units in the facility and 30% the anticipated performance based on penetration rates in the target population cohort. 25% Senior housing developers and investors have focused the new developments primarily 20% on Assisted Living facilities, most with Memory Care components. Two senior developers 15% of note, Autumn Leaves and Artis Senior Living, develop stand-alone Memory Care 10% communities of 46 to 80 units, requiring smaller in-fill sites. Silverado Senior Living 5% develops Memory Care only communities, often in excess of 100 units. Most seniors 0% are able to age in place in their early Boomer years with average age of Assisted Living -5% residents in the low to mid 80s. Chicago based assisted living facilities averaged 88.6-10% percent stabilized occupancy with an average rent of $ 4,800, monthly. With properties already in the pipeline, there will be sufficient capacity in the Chicago regional market. Developers are focusing on in-fill and smaller sites to meet unmet demand in specific submarkets. There are limiting factors to this sustained growth, including avoidance Section 1: Executive Summary 11 of market duplication, availability of suitable sites and lack of municipal willingness to rezone properties to senior use from more intense uses, in the improving economy. The availability of abundant capital for new development, the high occupancies and rental rates of existing facilities and the downward pressure on existing facility cap rates will all contribute to continued growth of new senior housing properties, at least through 2019. As this segment develops, senior providers will look to in-fill sites in denser concentrations of populations, sites that are in extended metropolitan areas, such as the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor, Chicago-Northwest Indiana and secondary markets such as Bloomington, Springfield, Champaign and outside of St. Louis to sustain growth. 2015 Inventory One Year Three Years Five Years Ten Years Source: AEW Research, NCREIF Across Select REIT Types and the S&P 500 in 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year Periods As of 12/31/2013 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years Source: NAREIT; Bloomberg; NIC Research & Analytics Chart Majority Title AL Here 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 4Q2012 825 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 QUARTER # PROPERTIES # UNITS OCCUPANCY STABILIZED OCCUPANCY ABSORPTION INVENTORY GROWTH # PROPERTIES UNDER CONSTRUCTION # UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION ANNUAL RENT GROWTH AVG. RENT 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 Current Construction 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 Construction vs. Inventory *Includes all units/beds in properties under construction with a majority of assisted living service or memory care service units, including CCRCs. Chart Majority Title NC Here 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 Current Construction 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 572 4Q2014 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Construction vs. Inventory *Includes all units/beds in properties under construction with a majority of nursing care service beds, including CCRCs. Source: NIC MAP Data Service 4Q2014 600 53,463 90.7% n/a 649 423 14 1,572 0.28% $5,548 1Q2015 603 53,735 91.1% n/a 462 272 14 1,521 0.65% $5,584 2Q2015 603 53,735 90.8% n/a -161 17 1,896 0.19% $5,595 3Q2015 607 54,045 90.6% n/a 173 310 16 1,823 0.44% $5,619 19 Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Chicago / Investment Colliers International
502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 $2.3 billion in annual revenue 1.7 billion square feet under management 16,300 professionals and staff MARKET CONTACTS: Office Thomas Gorman Senior Vice President Chicago +1 847 384 2847 thomas.gorman@colliers.com Multifamily Brian Pohl Executive Vice President Chicago +1 312 612 5931 brian.pohl@colliers.com Retail Peter Block Executive Vice President Chicago +1 847 384 2840 peter.block@colliers.com Industrial Steve Disse Principal Chicago +1 847 698 8263 steve.disse@colliers.com Seniors Housing Jeffrey Hyman Senior Vice President Chicago +1 847 384 2827 jeff.hyman@colliers.com About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is a global leader in commercial real estate services with more than 16,300 professionals operating from 502 offices in 67 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment sales and capital markets, project management and workplace solutions, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal services, and customized research and thought leadership. Colliers International has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.