Quant Briefing: Earnings Monitor August 19, 1 Dr. Ed Yardeni 1-97-783 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 73-973 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Earnings & Revenue Summary 1 S&P Sectors Earnings for Current Quarter S&P Sectors Revenue for Current Quarter 3 S&P Historical Earnings S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s - S&P Historical Revenue 7 S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s 8-9 August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
S&P Earnings & Revenue Summary Table 1A: S&P Earnings (as of August 19, 1) % Y/Y % Growth % Positive % Negative # Companies -1.3 1. 9.7 1.7 9 Q1-1.8.1 7.7.3 Q-1..8 8.9.7 Q3-1. 1. 73.1 18.9-1.8 7.9. 3. Q1-1..1 7.8.7 Q-13 3.3 9..8 3.9 Q3-13..9..9-13 3..1.. Q1-13. 3.9..3 Q-1.. 8.1. Q3-1.... -1. 7..7. Q1-1.8 7.8.3 3. Q-11.8 9..7 7. Q3-11. 1.9 9..3-11. 11.8 7. 19. Q1-11 7.8 19.7 7.1.7 Q-1. 11.1 9. 1.1 Q3-1.7 39.1 7.3 18. -1 9.9 7.9 7. 1.1 Q1-1 1.. 77. 1.1 Q-9.9 -/+ 7. 17.7 Q3-9 17.1-11. 78.8 1. -9 17.1 -.7 73. 19. Q1-9. -33.8.9.7 Table 1B: S&P Revenue % Y/Y % Growth % Positive % Negative # Companies -1. -3.7 8. 1. 7 Q1-1. -3.9 3..8 Q-1 1. 1.9 7.9.1 Q3-1.3. 9.7.3-1 1.3 3. 3.8 3. Q1-1..7. 7.8 Q-13.3 1.1 1. 38. Q3-13 1. 3... -13.9. 3.. Q1-13 -.9 -..8. Q-1. 1.8 3.9 3.3 Q3-1 -1.. 39.9 9.9-1 -.3.. 9. Q1-1 1.1..9 3.1 Q-11..7.7.3 Q3-11 1. 1.9. 39. -11.8 11.8 73.. Q1-11 1.1 9..3 33.7 Q-1 1.8 8.. 3. Q3-1.7 8.. 39. -1. 7. 1.1 38.9 Q1-1 1. 11. 7.9 3.1 Q-9 1.. 9. 3. Q3-9. -11.7 8.3 1. -9.1-1.1 9.. Q1-9 -.1-1. 3. 3. % surprise = difference between actual and consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Page 1 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
S&P Sectors Earnings for Current Quarter Table A: S&P Aggregate Earnings -1 (as of August 19, 1) Sector % EPS Expected Y/Y EPS Growth (%) Actual Y/Y EPS Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive EPS Negative EPS Positive Y/Y EPS Growth Consumer Discretionary.8.9 1. 83.1 7. 17..9 3. Consumer Staples. -3.3.8 8. 71.9 18.8 9. 37. Energy. 7..9 1. 1. 31.7 19. 8. Financials.3 1.7 1.9 98.9.1 9.9.1 3.8 Health Care 7.3. 1.3 9. 9.. 8. 11.1 Industrials. -.1 -.3 9. 7. 17. 9.8 3. Information Technology 3.8 3. 7. 9.9 8.3 1.7.7 3. Materials..7 8.1 1..7 1..3 3.7 Telecommunication Services 3.. 9. 1..... Utilities..3.3 1. 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 S&P.3-3. 1. 93.8 9.7 1.7 1. 3. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Table B: Slices & Dices Sector/Industries % EPS Expected Y/Y EPS Growth (%) Actual Y/Y EPS Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive EPS Negative EPS Positive Y/Y EPS Growth Negative Y/Y EPS Growth Negative Y/Y EPS Growth S&P ex-energy.3.3 9.8 93. 7..8.7 3. S&P ex-financials. -7. -.9 9.7 71. 19.9 1. 3. S&P ex-tech...3 9. 9.9 1.8.9 37. S&P REITs Composite 7. -1.1.8 1. 7.8.. 37. S&P Retail Composite. 3..7.7 8.3 33.3 8.3 33.3 S&P Discretionary Retail.7 7.3 1.1.1. 33.3. 38.9 S&P Staples Retail.1 -.9 1.1 8.7.7 33.3 83.3 1.7 S&P Industrials Composite.1-8. -3.7 91.9 7.9 17.7 1.7 3.3 S&P Transportation.8 1.1 13. 1. 7.9 3.1 7.9 3.1 S&P Industrials ex-ge 3.3 -..9 9..8 17.7 71. 9. S&P ex-apple. -.9. 93.8 9.7 1.8 1. 3. Information Technology ex-apple. -.7 -.7 9.8 7.8..1 3. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
S&P Sectors Revenue for Current Quarter Table 3A: S&P Aggregate -1 (as of August 19, 1) Sector % Expected Y/Y Growth (%) Actual Y/Y Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive Negative Positive Y/Y Growth Negative Y/Y Growth Consumer Discretionary -.1. 1.9 83.1. 7.8.9 39.1 Consumer Staples -1..1.7 8. 3...9 3.1 Energy.3-3.1-31.7 1. 8.8 1.. 97. Financials 1.7.3. 9. 1. 38.8 8. 31.8 Health Care 1.. 8. 9. 7. 9. 81. 18. Industrials -.3-3. -3.8 9. 3. 9.8.9 7.1 Information Technology. 3.7. 9.9.7 3.3 1.7 38.3 Materials -1.1-8.9-9.9 1. 8. 71. 3.7.3 Telecommunication Services -..8. 1.. 8. 8.. Utilities -. -. -.8 1. 3.3 7.7. 8. S&P. -. -3.7 93. 8. 1.. 7.8 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Table 3B: Slices & Dices Sector % Expected Y/Y Growth (%) Actual Y/Y Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive Negative Positive Y/Y Growth Negative Y/Y Growth S&P ex-energy. 1. 1. 9.8 8. 1. 7. 3. S&P ex-financials.. -.7 9.7.. 8.7 1.3 S&P ex-tech.. -. 93.8 7..8.9 9.1 S&P REITs Composite 1..3.3 1.. 37... S&P Retail Composite -..8..7 37.. 9.8. S&P Discretionary Retail.7 7. 8.3.1.. 9.. S&P Staples Retail -...9 8.7 1.7 83.3 1.. S&P Industrials Composite.7. -.7 91.9 9. 1. 1. 8. S&P Transportation -1. -.1-1.7 1. 7.7 9.3 38. 1. S&P Industrials ex-ge -.7-1. -1.8 9. 9. 71. 3.. S&P ex-apple. -.8 -. 93. 8.3 1.7.1 7.9 Information Technology ex-apple. -1. -1. 9.8.9.1 1. 39. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Page 3 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
1 Figure 1. S&P Historical Earnings S&P NET EARNINGS SURPRISE* (percent) 1 1 1-1 -1-1 -1 - - 87 88 89 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - - * Percentage of S&P companies that reported earnings are above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Earnings surprise capped at -% during Q-8. 1 8 Figure. S&P POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EARNINGS SURPRISES* (percent of companies) 1 8 - - - - - 87 88 89 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - * Relative to consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s 1 - - -1 Figure 3. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY earnings surprise (%) 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % of companies with positive and negative earnings surprise (percent) 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1 1 8 - CONSUMER STAPLES 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 CONSUMER STAPLES 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1-1 1-1 ENERGY 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 ENERGY 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - - - FINANCIALS 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 FINANCIALS 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 8 - HEALTH CARE 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 HEALTH CARE 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1 - Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s 1 1 Figure. INDUSTRIALS earnings surprise (%) 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 INDUSTRIALS % of companies with positive and negative earnings surprise (percent) 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1 1 1-1 1 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1-8 - MATERIALS 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 MATERIALS 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1-3 1-1 - TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 1 1-3 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1-1 1 1 UTILITIES UTILITIES 1 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1-1 Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
3. 3. Figure. S&P Historical Revenue S&P NET REVENUE SURPRISE* (percent) 3. 3..... 1. 1. 1.. 1.... -. -. -1. -1. -1. -. 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1-1. -. * Percentage of S&P companies that reported revenues are above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. 1 8 Figure. S&P POSITIVE & NEGATIVE REVENUE SURPRISES* (percent of companies) 1 8 - - - - -8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - - -8 * Relative to consensus estimate at the time of the revenue report. Page 7 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s - Figure 7. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY revenue surprise (%) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % of companies with positive and negative revenue surprise (percent) 1 1-9 1 11 1 13 1 1 9 1 11 1 13 1 1-1 3 1-1 - -3 CONSUMER STAPLES 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 CONSUMER STAPLES 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - - -1 1 9 3-3 - ENERGY 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 ENERGY 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - - 1 8 - -8 FINANCIALS 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 FINANCIALS 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - - 3 1 HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE 1-1 - 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 9 1 11 1 13 1 1-1 Page 8 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s - Figure 8. INDUSTRIALS revenue surprise (%) INDUSTRIALS % of companies with positive and negative revenue surprise (percent) 1 1-9 1 11 1 13 1 1 9 1 11 1 13 1 1-1 - INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1 - - 9 3-3 - -9-1 MATERIALS 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 MATERIALS 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1-1 1. 1. TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 1 1.. -. -1. 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 9 1 11 1 13 1 1-1 1 1-1 -1 UTILITIES 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 UTILITIES 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1-1 -1 Page 9 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor
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