THE DECISIVE ROLE OF CARBON STORAGE POTENTIAL IN THE DEPLOYMENT OF THE CCS OPTION Sandrine SELOSSE MINES ParisTech, Centre for Applied Mathematics Chair Modeling for sustainable development and Olivia RICCI (University of Reunion) Govind MALHOTRA (Banaris Hindu University) June 15-18, 2014-37th IAEE International Conference New York city
The way to win the Climate Fight (?) Global and ambitious GHG mitigation targets Transition toward a low carbon system Technological option Renewables, nuclear, CCS, biomass, etc. Contributions to emissions reductions between the 2DS and the 6DS Source: ETP 2014, Figure 1.3, p.30
Modeling approach : TIAM-FR French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP) Optimization, linear programming, bottum-up, multiregional Long-term possible futures of the energy system
Modeling approach : TIAM-FR French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP) Optimization, linear programming, bottom-up, multiregional Long-term possible futures of the energy system
Modeling approach : TIAM-FR French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP) Optimization, linear programming, bottom-up, multiregional Long-term possible futures of the energy system
Modeling approach : TIAM-FR French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP) Optimization, linear programming, bottom-up, multiregional Long-term possible futures of the energy system Electricity production in strong climate constraint (PJ) with TIAM-FR
Carbon storage potential analysis Storage capacities distribution By type: deep saline aquifers, coal basins, depleted oil and gas fields, etc. By location: offshore, onshore By region
Carbon storage potential analysis Storage capacities distribution By type: deep saline aquifers, coal basins, depleted oil and gas fields, etc. By location: offshore, onshore By region Source: Global CCS Institute Status of CCS 2012
Carbon storage potential analysis Storage capacities distribution By type: deep saline aquifers, coal basins, depleted oil and gas fields, etc. By location: offshore, onshore By region Type Oil and gas fields Saline aquifer and coal bed storage EOR Status Completely assessed, data relatively available USGS + TPS for onshore/offshore location Data extrapolated for whole country based on surveyed fields 96% of world known oil reserve studied Depleted gas fields Excl. fields with capacity < 50 Mt (onshore) and < 100 Mt (offshore)
Carbon storage potential analysis Scenarios analysis (under climate constraints) Storage potentials Initial TIAM 9,392 Gt Miscellaneous database 10,142 Gt Dooley 10,655 Gt Hendriks 572 Gt / 1,706 Gt / 5,864 Gt Cost of carbon transport 10$/tCO2 Mc Kinsey: 5.2 (onshore) and 7.8 (offshore) $/tco 2 20$/tCO 2 Onshore/offshore
The place of CCS in the power mix 2050 Share of CCS in the electricity mix (%) by scenario Clim_Misc Clim_HenH Clim_HenB 2100 Clim_HenL Clim_Doo Clim_ini 0 5 10 15 20 25
The carbon storage site distribution Carbon storage by site and by scenario (Gt CO 2 ) Clim_ini Clim_Doo 2100 2050 Clim_HenL Clim_HenB Clim_HenH Clim_Misc Clim_ini Clim_Doo Clim_HenL Clim_HenB Clim_HenH Clim_Misc 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Deep saline aquifers (offshore) Deep saline aquifers (onshore) Depl gas fields (offshore) Depl gas fields (onshore) Depl oil fields (offshore) Depl oil fields (onshore) Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov <1000 m Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov >1000 m Enhanced Oil Recovery (offshore) Enhanced Oil Recovery (onshore)
The carbon storage site distribution Carbon storage by site and by scenario (Gt CO 2 ) 2100 2050 Clim_Doo Clim_Doo_2 Clim_HenL Clim_HenL_2 Clim_HenB Clim_HenB_2 Clim_HenH Clim_HenH_2 Clim_Misc Clim_Misc_2 Clim_Doo Clim_Doo_2 Clim_HenL Clim_HenL_2 Clim_HenB Clim_HenB_2 Clim_HenH Clim_HenH_2 Clim_Misc Clim_Misc_2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Deep saline aquifers (offshore) Deep saline aquifers (onshore) Depl gas fields (offshore) Depl gas fields (onshore) Depl oil fields (offshore) Depl oil fields (onshore) Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov <1000 m Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov >1000 m Enhanced Oil Recovery (offshore) Enhanced Oil Recovery (onshore)
The prohibition of onshore storage Carbon storage by site (Gt CO 2 ) 2100 2050 Clim_Misc_NoOnshore Clim_Misc_NoOnshore 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Deep saline aquifers (offshore) Depl oil fields (offshore) Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov >1000 m Depl gas fields (offshore) Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov <1000 m Enhanced Oil Recovery (offshore)
The role of CCS in the fight against climate change? The development of CCS seems not to be largely impacted by the level of potential Except with the lowest case where CCS contribution decreases at the end of the horizon The question of the type of storage appears to be more important Higher costs of carbon transport Low limitation of CCS development High impact on the choice of the site (especially in depleted gas fields and on EOR) Important impact of onshore limitation on the development of CCS
The role of CCS in the fight against climate change? Significant role of CCS, particularly when fossil is not yet and outdated source of energy (world largest CO2 emitters) Realistic targets : Availability of technological solution To all countries: transfer, investment aids To the scale of the challenge: Capture and storage issues Uncertainties about storage potential Levels Financial support (long term monitoring + transport infrastructure) Political incentives
Thank you for your attention! June 15-18, 2014-37th IAEE International Conference New York city
Carbon storage potential sources Dooley JJ and and Friedman S.J. 2005..A Global but Regionally Disaggregated Accounting of CO2 Storage Capacity: Data and Assumptions for Compiling Regional CO2 Storage Capacity Supply Curves for Incorporation within ObjECTS- MiniCAM. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. UCRL-SR-209663 Hendriks, C., Graus, W., van Bergen, F., (2004). Global carbon dioxide storage potential and costs. Report by Ecofys in cooperation with TNO. EEP-02001 by order of the: Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) Miscelaneous database North American Carbon Storage Atlas (2012), United States Carbon Utilization and Storage Atlas DOE & NETL (2012, 4 th edition), IEA, IEA GHG; 2009, 2010 Ecofys (2004) ZEP (2010) McKinsey & Compagny (2008) USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) Total Petroleum Survey Specific national or industrial data