CCS RETROFIT. Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet INFORMATION PAPER. Matthias FINKENRATH, Julian SMITH and Dennis VOLK

Transcription

1 CCS RETROFIT Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet INFORMATION PAPER Matthias FINKENRATH, Julian SMITH and Dennis VOLK 2012

2

3 CCS RETROFIT Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet Matthias FINKENRATH, Julian SMITH and Dennis VOLK This paper is published under the authority of the Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology Directorate and may not reflect the views of individual International Energy Agency (IEA) member or non-member countries. Data and information is provided for informational purposes only, and the IEA is not liable for any errors in their content. For further information, please contact Dennis Volk at: 2012

4 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November Its primary mandate was and is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency s aims include the following objectives: Secure member countries access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. OECD/IEA, 2012 International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fédération Paris Cedex 15, France Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. IEA member countries:

5 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Table of contents Acknowledgements... 6 Background and motivation... 7 Scope of this study... 8 Page 3 Retrofit assessment criteria... 9 Definition of the potential for CCS retrofitting... 9 Key findings from literature Information available from global databases Limitations and uncertainties Analysis of the globally installed fleet Global profile of the installed coal fired power plant fleet Countries with the largest CO 2 emissions from coal fired power generation Case analyses Impact of minimum power plant size and age on plant population Case 1 (units <30 years old and >100 MW) results on a global level Case 2 (units <20 years old and >300 MW) results on a global level Case 3 (units <10 years old and >300 MW) results on a global level Analysis for major CO 2 emitting countries China General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions United States of America General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions India General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions Germany General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions Russia General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions Japan General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions... 28

6 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Page 4 South Africa General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions Australia General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions Republic of Korea General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions Poland General observations from the case analysis Key country specific conclusions Summary Analysis of expected new installations Summary and conclusions Observations from analysing the globally installed fleet Perspectives on new installations in the coming decades Findings from the country level analysis Key conclusions Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure References List of Figures Figure 1 Definitions of retrofit potential... 9 Figure 2 WEPP and egrid data of the installed coal fired power plant fleet in the United States Figure 3 WEPP and BNetzA data of the installed coal fired power plant fleet in Germany Figure 4 Total coal fired power plant capacity globally, broken down by age and generation capacity Figure 5 Total coal fired power plant capacity globally, broken down by age and performance level Figure 6 Breakdown of global CO 2 emissions from coal/peat through the production of electricity, heat, and power generation capacity Figure 7 Installed total coal fired power plant capacity in all countries and breakdown by age and capacity Figure 8 Breakdown of young (<30 years) and large (>100 MW) coal fired power plants Figure 9 Installed total coal fired power plant capacity in all countries and breakdown by age and capacity Figure 10 Breakdown of young (<20 years) and large (>300 MW) coal fired power plants Figure 11 Installed total coal fired power plant capacity in all countries and breakdown by age and capacity... 20

7 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Figure 12 Further breakdown of young (<10 years) and large (>300 MW) coal fired power plants Figure 13 China: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 14 United States of America: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 15 India: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 16 Germany: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 17 Russia: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 18 Japan: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 19 South Africa: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 20 Australia: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 21 Korea: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 22 Poland: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Figure 23 New (gross) installations of coal fired power plants according to the WEO 2011 New Policies Scenario (GW) Page 5 List of Tables Table 1 Steam conditions of pulverized coal fired power plant technologies Table 2 Countries that account for more than 85% of global CO 2 emissions from coal/peat through the production of electricity and heat Table 3 Overview on case results Table 4 Regional focus of this analysis versus regional breakdown in WEO Table 5 New (gross) installations of coal fired power plants according to the WEO 2011 New Policies Scenario (GW) Table 6 Total retirements of coal fired power plants according to the WEO 2011 New Policies Scenario (GW)... 36

8 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Acknowledgements Page 6 The authors of this document would like to thank all the contributors and reviewers for their input and comments. Significant contributions, valuable comments and feedback were received from within the IEA, including Keith Burnard, Osamu Ito, Dafydd Elis, Marco Baroni and Sean McCoy and from the panel of external reviewers. In that regard, we offer special thanks to Christopher Short from the Global CCS Institute, Colin Henderson from International Energy Agency s (IEA) Clean Coal Centre, John Davison from the International Energy Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme and Ping Zhong from Administrative Centre for China s Agenda 21 (ACCA 21). We would also like to thank Bo Diczfalusy, Director of the Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology Directorate, Juho Lipponen, Head of the Carbon Capture and Storage Technology Unit at the IEA, and Lászlo Varró, Head of the Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division, for their valuable advice and support. Cheryl Haines, Muriel Custodio and Angela Gosmann at the IEA s Communication and Information Office provided essential support in terms of editing, production and publication.

9 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Background and motivation With more than GW of installed generation capacity in 2010 according to IEA analyses the global coal fired power plant fleet accounts for more than 8.5 Gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions each year. This represents roughly one quarter of the world s anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Despite ever present climate change concerns, coal fired power generation is expanding faster than ever: over the last five years, capacity additions experienced recordgrowth of more than 350 GW. Further, energy scenarios by the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect an additional GW by Without further action to mitigate the effects of growing unabated coal fired power generation capacity, this represents a massive threat to the global climate. IEA assessments suggest that CCS deployed to the global coal fired power plant fleet might contribute to 10% of worldwide energy related CO 2 emission reductions required to stabilise global warming by 2050 (IEA, 2010a). In order to achieve deep cuts in worldwide CO 2 emissions, lowest cost scenarios suggest that nearly all new build fossil fuel power plants need to be equipped with CCS in the coming decades. In addition, CCS equipment would need to be added to the already installed global fleet of fossilfuel power plants. This approach, known as CCS retrofitting, is expected to play an important role in addressing the problem of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel power plants that have been already locked in. The importance for CCS retrofitting is further exacerbated by the significant lifetime of existing power plants and the very large number of plants likely to be built over the coming decades without CO 2 emissions abatement. Modelling results provide estimates of the required overall deployment of CCS retrofit to coalfired power plants. In order to meet ambitious emission reduction levels at lowest cost, the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (ETP 2010) analysis suggests that CCS retrofit will play an increasingly significant role until New fossil fuel power plants built in the next ten to twenty years should, hence, be designed in a manner that would allow for CCS retrofitting. Until 2050, ETP 2010 projects that 114 GW of coal fired capacity would need to be retrofitted with CCS globally, in order to achieve stabilisation of global warming at sustainable levels at lowest costs. This is a significant share relative to the 550 GW of new coal fired power plants and 298 GW of new gas fired capacity with CCS to be installed globally over the same period (until 2050) in the same scenario. While nearly the entire global coal fired power plant fleet will need to be equipped with CCS from the beginning, 16% of the total coal capacity operating with CCS by 2050 will need to be retrofitted power plants. Retrofitting CCS, is, however, a complex task that requires consideration of many site specific aspects. An exact analysis of the potential to retrofit CCS to the global coal fired power plant fleet, including all of the many parameters critical towards an assessment of the technical, economic and social viability to retrofit CCS, is not possible due to lack of available data and the diversity of market circumstances. Information from global databases, IEA statistics and the IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 (WEO 2011), however, provides an indication of the present and future size, age and performance profile, as well as the regional distribution of the global coalfired power plant fleet. This study presents data from the ten countries which together account for more than 85% of the world s CO 2 emissions from coal fired power generation and discusses the percentage of that population of plants that could be particularly attractive for considering CCS retrofit. This study does not assess the potential limiting technical, economic and other constraints to arrive at the realistic retrofit potential. Page 7

10 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Scope of this study Page 8 A large number of coal fired power plants are currently in operation worldwide. No complete set of technical information of individual units of this globally installed fleet exists. However, available databases cover the bulk of these plants in a relatively comprehensive manner. These databases typically include key information related to the size, age, and performance level of the vast majority of the globally installed coal fired power plants. The following analysis is based on IEA statistical information in combination with data from the UDI World Electric Power Plants Data Base (Platts, 2011), referred to henceforth as the WEPP database. Data from the IEA are used in this study for validation of WEPP results. IEA data are typically based on direct submissions by IEA member and non member countries, as well as the agency s own analysis. Submitted data are often aggregated on a country wide level. This study illustrates the size and regional distribution of the globally installed coal fired power plant fleet that is potentially relevant for CCS retrofitting. The study draws upon existing research on CCS retrofitting: several studies have estimated the effective potential for retrofitting on a regional level, often based on generic assumptions. While significant progress has been made on understanding the importance of different aspects relevant for assessing CCS retrofitting, the realistic global potential is still unclear. No detailed economic analysis is performed under this study. Instead, a range of selected criteria for coal fired power plants is extracted from global databases and combined with fundamental economic considerations in order to provide a realistic estimate of the potential for retrofitting plants with CCS. More specifically, the following analysis illustrates the global and regional distribution broken down to a generation unit level (or power plant block size) of power generation capacities, performance levels, and plant age. These criteria represent only a fraction of various technical and non technical parameters to be taken into account for assessing the realistic global potential for retrofitting CCS. For example, the analysis covers neither a detailed assessment of the current interest or pace of development of a specific region in deploying CCS, nor the availability and economic viability of required local CO 2 transportation and storage. The study is thus not designed to provide an accurate estimate of the actual, realistic global potential for retrofitting CCS on a commercial basis. However, the study does shed further light on several key aspects that are important for considering the fundamental ability to retrofit CCS, such as: Relative to the globally installed fleet of coal power generation today, how big is the share of comparatively young power plants that might be particularly attractive for CCS retrofit, and in which countries are they located? Similarly, how prevalent is the share of comparatively efficient or very large plants and what is their regional distribution? Based on data from the IEA WEO 2011 publication, in which regions are new coal fired power plants likely be located in the coming decades, and how significant will their power generation capacity be, relative to the existing fleet? This report analyses in greater detail those ten countries that together represent more than 85% of the world s CO 2 emissions from the production of electricity and heat using coal and peat. To also include likely future developments, data for the present installed fleet are complemented by results for coal power plant deployment (IEA, 2011) that are expected for the coming decades.

11 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Retrofit assessment criteria In this chapter different definitions of the term CCS retrofit potential are clarified. In addition, key findings from previous studies are summarised and compared with the set of available information from databases on the installed global coal fired power plant fleet. It is necessary to stress that the results of this study show a fairly vast retrofit potential, since the assessments methodology used does not include all relevant factors to arrive at the region specific potential. This study, therefore, does not assess the potential limiting influence of other aspects, such as space for equipment, storage availability, power markets design or public acceptance, which are all absolutely necessary aspects to consider for realistic retrofit potential (see Figure 1 below). Page 9 Definition of the potential for CCS retrofitting Many parameters are critical for an assessment of the technical, economic and social viability to retrofit CCS. While the theoretical potential of CCS retrofit includes the total global fleet of fossil power generation, the technical, cost effective and realistic potential to successfully apply CCS retrofits will be significantly lower, as illustrated in Figure 1. The focus of this study is on specifying the theoretical potential for CCS retrofit, and providing an approximation of the magnitude of upper limit estimates for the technical and cost effective potential. Due to the complexity of the assessment and lack of site specific data on a global level, assessing the actual realistic potential for CCS retrofit is beyond the scope of the study. Figure 1 Definitions of retrofit potential Potential for CCS Retrofit All operating power plants Considering sitespecific technical & economical constraints CO 2 storage and transport availability Space for equipment Access to utilities Flue gas pollutants treatment requirements Size of unit Age of unit Performance of unit Considering additional constraints Public acceptance Power market conditions and competitiveness Regulatory framework Theoretical Technical & Cost effective Realistic Even on a plant level, it is a highly complex task to assess the technical and economical viability as well as the social acceptability of a specific retrofit project. Hence any attempt to extrapolate a site specific analysis to the globally installed power plant fleet in order to quantify a realistic potential for retrofitting CCS to power plants globally or even within a wider region is not feasible.

12 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Key findings from literature Page 10 Many publications have analysed CCS retrofitting of coal fired power plants, such as the recent comprehensive study by the IEA Greenhouse Gas Implementing Agreement (IEAGHG, 2011). This study provides very useful technical background information and an overview of the related relevant literature that was published over the last years. Global energy scenarios suggest that CCS retrofit is a necessity for deep CO 2 emission cuts, in addition to constructing new power plants with CCS. Most studies, however, agree with conclusions from an earlier assessment by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2005 that states: Retrofitting existing plants with CO 2 capture is expected to lead to higher costs and significantly reduced overall efficiencies than for newly built power plants with capture. The cost disadvantages of retrofitting may be reduced in the case of some relatively new and highly efficient existing plants or where a plant is substantially upgraded or rebuilt (IPCC, 2005). The same report lists some additional disadvantages of CCS retrofits, depending on the type of the existing power plant, such as: Potential site specific constraints, such as lack of availability of land for the capture equipment; In comparison to new build power plants, reduced remaining plant life of the power plant, if not upgraded or retrofitted. A long plant life would be beneficial for justifying the large expense of installing capture equipment; Tendency to have low efficiencies and, consequently, a proportionally greater impact on the net output than in high efficiency plants. In order to minimise site specific constraints, it has been proposed that new plants be built CCSready to reduce these and other disadvantages apparent when CCS retrofitting an already operational plant. This concept is an important option for not further locking in CO 2 emissions from power plants that will be built in the near future. In terms of the current global coal fired power fleet, the number of plants that have been already designed CCS ready is, however, very low. Another relatively recent publication underlined the advantages of preferring modern power plants for retrofitting CCS. Summary notes of a workshop on retrofitting CCS held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2009 conclude that: relatively large (300 MWe or greater), high efficiency coal plants with installed FGD [flue gas desulphurization] and SCR [selective catalytic reduction] capability are the best candidates for CCS retrofit. By contrast, retrofit is not attractive for old, lower efficiency, smaller, subcritical units. Rebuilding or repowering is an option depending on significant CO 2 prices being in place. (MIT, 2009). As a general finding from the workshop, cost effective retrofits for carbon capture are most suitable for newer, larger plants. Nth plant CO 2 avoidance costs for supercritical plants are significantly lower than those for subcritical plants. Analysis by EPRI that was presented at the same workshop concludes that cost effective retrofits for carbon capture are most suitable for boilers that are 300 MW or larger and less than about 35 years old. The detailed study by IEAGHG from 2011 in general supports the statement that CCS retrofits to plants with lower efficiencies will tend to have higher generation costs and so are generally less likely to be competitive with new build CCS replacements (IEAGHG, 2011). Costs of CCS per tonne of CO 2 captured are found likely somewhat higher for retrofitted plants. However, the study emphasizes the strong effect of other site specific factors on retrofit generation costs makes a definite minimum efficiency threshold for retrofitting inappropriate. The study actually identifies a range of conditions under which costs of electricity may even look more favourable

13 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet for power plants with retrofitted CCS, compared to new build power plants with CCS. For the specific set of parameter assumptions chosen in this study, the threshold lower heating value (LHV) efficiency below which retrofit on coal plants would become unattractive was found to be in the region of 35% (about 33% efficiency in terms of higher heating value (HHV)). Another detailed study on the potential of CCS retrofitting the currently operating coal fired power plant fleet in the United States was performed by the US National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL, 2011). Parameters used by NETL for screening and singling out power plants that are not amenable to CO 2 capture retrofit included those that: Page 11 are not currently operating; have a capacity less than 100 MW; have a 2008 reported heat rate greater than Btu/kWh (HHV) or about 29% efficiency (LHV); do not have a defined CO 2 repository within 25 miles (40 kilometres). Information available from global databases Based on the findings from literature that are summarised above, this study uses data from the WEPP database organised in a way that illustrates the profile of the globally installed coal power fleet in different relevant dimensions. These dimensions include a breakdown in terms of: Size, which is the nameplate power generation capacity in MW: up to 100 MW net electric power output, between 100 and 500 MW net electric power output, broken down in steps of 100, above 500 MW net electric power output; Age, which is the year of first operation, grouping the results into 5 year intervals; Performance level, differentiating between sub, super or ultra supercritical steam parameters. Very limited detailed information is available in databases with a global coverage on the performance characteristics of individual units. Steam parameters or plant power generation efficiency data are typically only provided for a small fraction of plants. As a rough indication, Table 1 correlates general performance levels of coal fired power plants that are provided in global power plant databases with typical steam parameters and power generation efficiencies. It should be noted, though, that corresponding site specific efficiency levels may vary significantly depending on local factors such as ambient conditions, maintenance or operating regimes. Table 1 Steam conditions of pulverized coal fired power plant technologies Type of coal-fired power plant Temperature ( C) Pressure (bar) Typical maximum efficiency (LHV) Subcritical (SUBCR) % Supercritical (SUPERC) % Ultra-supercritical* (ULTRSC) % Source: Hendriks et al, * It should be noted that no internationally accepted definition of ultra supercritical currently exists. For example, the IEA ETP analysis (IEA, 2010) defines ultra supercritical as plants with operating steam temperatures 600 C.

14 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Limitations and uncertainties Page 12 Available databases on the installed global coal fired power plant fleet are extensive, but not able to cover the full fleet. Databases such as WEPP typically claim a nearly complete coverage of extant plants in the order of 95% or more of the facilities. Data for China are an exception, where the considerable majority, or more than 75% of facilities, are claimed to be covered. Figure 2 WEPP and egrid data of the installed coal fired power plant fleet in the United States Installed capacity per age segment (MW) egrid data WEPP data Plant age (years) For the purposes of this study, most countries are well covered by the WEPP database. An example is provided in Figure 2, which compares data of the installed coal fired power plant fleet in the United States from the WEPP database, and from the Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (egrid) database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (egrid, 2011). The overall age and capacity profiles of databases are matching very well. The total installed capacity according to WEPP is 317 GW, which is about 95% of the capacity that is reported by the egrid database. In order to illustrate the range of uncertainty of WEPP data, Figure 3 presents a comparison of WEPP data with coal power plant data by the German Federal Network Agency for Electricity, Gas, Telecommunications, Post and Railway, Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA, 2011). While coverage of plants younger than 26 years is quite similar, the WEPP database reports a higher share of older power plants compared to the official data. The total coal power generation capacity estimated for Germany by WEPP is about 19% above the data by the German authorities. 1 1 It is beyond the scope of this study to identify the exact reason for this difference. Power plant operators in Germany are obliged to report their data to the German authorities. It thus might be that the WEPP database still lists some older power plants that are no longer operating today.

15 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Figure 3 WEPP and BNetzA data of the installed coal fired power plant fleet in Germany Total capacity per age segment (MW) BNetzA Data WEPP data Page Plant age (years) Evaluating the potential and techno economic viability of CCS retrofitting an individual coal fired power plant is challenging. It requires a breadth of technical and non technical considerations, which are usually highly market, region and site specific. It is unrealistic to expect a global data analysis to provide an exact picture of the realistic potential of retrofitting worldwide. It is, hence, beyond the scope of this study to assess in detail the technical feasibility and economical attractiveness of CCS retrofitting across the globally installed fleet. Nonetheless, this analysis aims to support and inform the ongoing discussion on the effective potential for retrofitting. Further, it focuses on the likely potential of retrofitting, based on available data related to the global coal fired power plant fleet.

16 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Analysis of the globally installed fleet Page 14 This chapter presents results of the analysis of the global coal fired power plant fleet based on the WEPP database and IEA statistics. All data presented in this study consider only installed coalfired power plants currently in operation. Power plants that are either under construction or have been mothballed, retired or shutdown also exist, but are not present in this study. Although data are referred to as power plant data throughout the document, the underlying data are based on individual power generation units ( blocks ). Global profile of the installed coal fired power plant fleet Figure 4 illustrates the age and size profile of the globally installed coal fired power plant fleet, which consists of approximately GW generating capacity in total. The figure shows a very steep increase in net power generating capacity from coal fired power plants over the last five years, in particular for large power plants above 300 MW capacity. Based on the available data, more than one fifth of the currently installed fleet worldwide is younger than five years old, and more than half of the installed fleet is younger than 20 years. In terms of retrofit opportunities, the comparably large share of fairly young and large power plants that are installed and operating would suggest a rather large population of power plants to be suitable for retrofitting CCS. Figure 4 Total coal fired power plant capacity globally, broken down by age and generation capacity % Total global capacity per age segment (MW) MW MW MW MW MW 0 99 MW 20% 15% 10% 5% Percentage of global capacity 0 0% Plant age (years)

17 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Figure 5 shows the move towards installing supercritical and ultra supercritical coal fired power plants over the last two decades. Nonetheless, the vast majority of installed plants still use subcritical steam conditions, and cannot reach performance levels of state of the art technology. In fact, the total capacity of installed subcritical coal fired power plants reached a record high over the last five years. Figure 5 Total coal fired power plant capacity globally, broken down by age and performance level Page % ULTRSC Total global capacity per age segment (MW) SUPERC SUBCR 20% 15% 10% 5% Percentage of global capacity 0 0% Plant age (years) Countries with the largest CO 2 emissions from coal fired power generation Together, only ten countries represent more than 85% of the world s total CO 2 emissions from coal or peat through the production of electricity and heat, which, based on IEA statistics, accumulated to 8.2 Gt in These ten countries and the annual CO 2 emissions are listed in Table 2. In addition, the total power generation capacity of coal fired power plants in these countries is provided. Overall, these ten countries account for over 1300 GW or, more precisely, 84% of the globally installed and operating coal fired power plant fleet, which today totals approximately GW worldwide. The installed global coal fired power plant capacity is broken down percentage wise per country in Figure 6. Differences between the shares CO 2 emissions and power generation can be attributed to differences in the performance and operating profile of the actual power plant fleets in the different countries.

18 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Table 2 Countries that account for more than 85% of global CO 2 emissions from coal/peat through the production of electricity and heat CO 2 emissions in Megatonnes (Mt) from electricity and heat production Coal power units Total capacity (MW) Page 16 China United States India Germany Russia Japan South Africa Australia Korea Poland Source: IEA, 2010b. Figure 6 Breakdown of global CO 2 emissions from coal/peat through the production of electricity, heat, and power generation capacity Percent of global emissions Coal fired power plant fleet (1627 GW) China 37% United States 23% Rest of the world 15% India 8% Germany 3% Russian Federation 3% Japan 3% South Africa 2% Australia 2% Korea 2% Poland 2% China 41% United States 21% Rest of the world 16% India 6% Germany 3% Russia 3% Japan 2% South Africa 2% Poland 2% Australia 2% Korea 2% Source: IEA, 2010b.

19 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Case analyses This study illustrates the potential size of the globally installed coal fired power plant fleet that could be most attractive for considering CCS retrofit. Results for different global case analyses are presented assuming certain minimum requirements related to three dimensions: 1) generating capacity, 2) plant age, and 3) performance level. While these results only indicate quantities of the theoretical potential of CCS retrofitting, they nonetheless provide the reader with an idea of the order of magnitude and potential, while providing guidance on which geographic regions are most attractive for further follow up analysis. Page 17 For the purpose of this study, three CCS retrofit cases are chosen: Case 1: Plants considered attractive for CCS retrofit that are younger than 30 years and have a power generation capacity above 100 MW; Case 2: Plants considered attractive for CCS retrofit that are younger than 20 years and have a power generation capacity above 300 MW; Case 3: Plants considered attractive for CCS retrofit that are younger than 10 years and have a power generation capacity above 300 MW. The parameter limits for the three cases are derived from findings from site specific studies, as outlined earlier, and should not be construed as having any other legitimacy beyond this. The levels for generating capacity, age, and performance level are best estimates and intended to support the reader s own judgement on realistic potential for CCS retrofitting. All cases are based on only two high level criteria related to the age and capacity level of the operating coal fired power plants covered in the used databases. Any further site specific considerations, such as availability of space for retrofit, technical possibility to retrofit, access to cost effective, sufficient CO 2 transportation and storage infrastructure, economic attractiveness, sufficient legislative support and social acceptance are beyond the scope of this study. These considerations will, however, likely to lead to a significant reduction in the actual potential to realize CCS retrofitting. Results from previous studies can provide a first impression on how the population of potentially attractive coal fired power plants is impacted by considering additional parameters. For example, a recent study by NETL (NETL, 2011) analysed the population of coal power plants that are attractive for retrofit was reduced by 13% when considering if a potential CO 2 sequestration target was within 25 miles (40 km) distance. In addition, a detailed study of the CCS retrofitting potential in China concluded that by number of sites above MW installed capacity only 19% appear to have a high retrofit potential (Li, 2010). The potential for 35% of the analysed sites remained uncertain, while 43% of the sites were considered not suitable for CCS retrofitting.

20 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Impact of minimum power plant size and age on plant population Based on available data, the capacity of the currently operating global fleet of coal fired power plants is GW. Page 18 Case 1 (units <30 years old and >100 MW) results on a global level Figure 7 Installed total coal fired power plant capacity in all countries and breakdown by age and capacity Figure 7 illustrates that about GW, or more than 93% of total globally installed fleet, are actually units that have a power generation output above 100 MW. More than 63% of the globally installed fleet, or GW, are both above 100 MW in capacity and younger than 30 years old. Nearly 60% of these plants are located in China, in total 600 GW. Figure 8 Breakdown of young (<30 years) and large (>100 MW) coal fired power plants United States, 86 India, 79 Germany, 24 China, 600 Russia, 12 Japan, 34 South Africa, 24 Rest of the world, 124 Poland, 10 Australia, 20 Korea, 24 Figure 8 illustrates the exceptional role that China plays in this context. Not only is the total generation capacity in China overwhelming, as presented in Table 2, but no other country has a similarly large operating coal power fleet in this age and capacity segment.

21 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Case 2 (units <20 years old and >300 MW) results on a global level Approximately GW or 68% of units in the global coal fired power plant fleet currently in operation are above 300 MW of power generation output, as illustrated in Figure 9. Under this more stringent second case, if only plants that are younger than 20 years are considered, 665 GW remain potential candidates for CCS retrofitting, or about 41% of the global operational fleet. Out of this population of plants that appear particularly attractive for CCS retrofitting, 481 GW or 72% are located in China. Page 19 Figure 9 Installed total coal fired power plant capacity in all countries and breakdown by age and capacity Considering the regional breakdown, it is remarkable that the contribution of the installed fleet in any other country than China to the global population of plants with similar characteristics does not exceed 25 GW, as shown in Figure 10. Figure 10 Breakdown of young (<20 years) and large (>300 MW) coal fired power plants United States, 20 India, 24 China, 481 Germany, 9 Russia, 1 Japan, 25 South Africa, 7 Rest of the world, 58 Poland, 2 Australia, 7 Korea, 21 These data underline the overwhelming importance that should be attributed to further understanding the realistic potential of CCS, in general, and retrofitting, in particular, in China compared to other large CO 2 emitting countries. The size, capacity and age profile of the operating Chinese coal fired power plant fleet is remarkable in the context of better understanding and quantifying a realistic potential for CCS retrofitting.

22 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Case 3 (units <10 years old and >300 MW) results on a global level Page 20 Under these highest stringent requirements, only taking into account bigger sized coal fired power plants at an age below 10 years, 471 GW remain potential candidates for CCS retrofitting, or about 29% of the global operational fleet. Out of this population of plants that appear to be attractive for retrofit, 390 GW or 83% are located in China. Figure 11 Installed total coal fired power capacity in all countries and breakdown by age and capacity In comparison to the results of the second case analysis, these results further amplify China s prospects for retrofitting CCS due to the age of the existing plants. Figure 12 Further breakdown of young (<10 years) and large (>300 MW) coal fired power plants United States, 14 India, 18 China, 390 Germany, 1 Russia, 1 Japan, 10 South Africa, 1 Poland, 1 Australia, 3 Korea, 11 Rest of the world, 23 Irrespective of the parameters applied in this study for narrowing the technical retrofit potential of today s installed fleet, other factors such as technological maturity will influence the realistic potential for CCS retrofitting. There is uncertainty on when CCS can reach its commercialisation phase in the power sector, but the experiences with some current demonstration projects can leave doubts on reaching that phase by Even if the commercialisation stage is reached by 2020, this will mean that the potential given above will be reduced, since plants will grow older. Therefore, it is of specific interest to assess both the existing coal fired power plant fleet, as well as plants likely to be built in the future. This leads to the conclusion that special consideration should be given to allowing for cost effective CCS retrofitting in the future when designing new power plants not yet equipped with CCS. 2 For example, the IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 examines the results of a ten year delay for CCS.

23 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet Analysis for major CO 2 emitting countries This chapter presents a more detailed breakdown of the operating coal fired power plant fleet in those ten countries that account for more than 85% of the world s CO 2 emissions from coal power generation. Page 21 China Characteristics of the current coal power plant fleet in China are illustrated in the following figure, which shows the age and performance profile of the complete coal power plant fleet. Figure 13 China: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Installed new capacity (MW) per age segment ULTRASC SUPERC SUBSC Plant age (years) General observations from the case analysis The fundamental characteristics of the coal power fleet in China can be summarised as follows: The reported total generation capacity of the operating fleet is 669 GW; 89% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet is younger than 20 years; 69% of the total operating coal fired power plant is younger than 10 years; 75% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above 300 MW; 25% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet has super or ultra supercritical steam parameters; 27% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has super or ultra supercritical steam parameters; 34% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years has super or ultra supercritical steam parameters.

24 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Page 22 Case 1 (power plants younger than 30 years and above 100 MW capacity): 90% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 600 GW; Case 2 (power plants younger than 20 years and above 300 MW capacity): 72% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 481 GW; Case 3 (power plants younger than 10 years and above 300 MW capacity): 58% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 390 GW. Key country specific conclusions China has clearly the largest coal fired power plant fleet installed in a single country. In addition, among the ten countries with the largest coal fired power generation capacity worldwide, China has by far the youngest fleet currently in operation. It is to be noted however that, of the 293 GW plant capacity installed over the last five years, almost 50% employed subcritical steam conditions. Considering the large total operating capacity, the high average capacity of single units and the young age profile of the Chinese coal power fleet, it has by far the largest population of coal power generation units that should be considered attractive for CCS retrofitting. Given the relatively recent, very steep, increase in capacity additions of coal fired power plants in China, it is incumbent on policy makers to analyse and consider the need to design new power plants CCS ready and, hence, avoid the future lock in of CO 2 emissions. United States of America Characteristics of the currently operating coal fired power plant fleet in the United States are illustrated in the following figure. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the complete coal power plant fleet. Figure 14 United States of America: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Installed new capacity (MW) per age segment ULTRASC SUPERC SUBSC Plant age (years)

25 OECD/IEA 2012 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet General observations from the case analysis The fundamental characteristics of the coal power fleet in the United States can be summarised as follows: The reported total generation capacity of the operating coal fired power plant fleet is 336 GW; 8% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet is younger than 20 years; 5% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet is younger than 10 years; 74% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above 300 MW; 27% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet has super or ultra supercritical steam parameters; 27% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has super or ultra supercritical steam parameters; 36% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years has super or ultra supercritical steam parameters. Page 23 Case 1 (power plants younger than 30 years and above 100 MW capacity): 25% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 86 GW; Case 2 (power plants younger than 20 years and above 300 MW capacity): 6% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 20 GW; Case 3 (power plants younger than 10 years and above 300 MW capacity): 4% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 14 GW. Key country specific conclusions The coal fired power plant fleet in the United States is the second largest installed in a single country. Among the ten countries with the largest coal power generation capacity worldwide, the United States has the lowest share of power plants that are younger than 20 years old. The share of power generation units with a capacity above 300 MW is however comparatively high. 3 India Characteristics of the currently operating coal power plant fleet in India are illustrated in the Figure 15 below. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the complete coal power plant fleet. General observations from the case analysis The fundamental characteristics of the coal power fleet in India can be summarised as follows: The total operating coal fired power plant fleet has 101 GW of generation capacity; 57% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet is younger than 20 years; 37% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet is younger than 10 years; 3 The small share of very old ultra supercritical power plants in the United States represents likely the very first units of this technology that were under development at that time (a similar phenomenon can be found for Russia).

26 CCS Retrofit Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal Fired Power Plant Fleet OECD/IEA 2012 Page 24 29% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above 300 MW; 1% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet has super or ultra supercritical steam parameters; 1%of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has superor ultra supercritical steam parameters; 2% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years has superor ultra supercritical steam parameters. Case 1 (power plants younger than 30 years and above 100 MW capacity): 79% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 79 GW; Case 2 (power plants younger than 20 years and above 300 MW capacity): 24% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 24 GW; Case 3 (power plants younger than 10 years and above 300 MW capacity): 18% of the total operating coal fired power plant fleet, or 18 GW. Figure 15 India: Profile of operating fleet of coal fired power plants Installed new capacity (MW) per age segment SUPERC SUBSC Plant age (years) Key country specific conclusions The coal fired power plant fleet in India is the third largest installed in a single country. Among the ten countries with the largest capacity coal fired power plant fleets worldwide, Indian plants have a comparably high share of generation units with relatively small generation capacity. Apart from a very few recently built exceptions, the Indian coal fired power plant fleet is based on subcritical technology. The steep increase in coal fired power plant additions over the last years in India requires special consideration in terms of designing new plants not already equipped with CCS in a way that would allow cost effective CCS retrofit in the future. However, other factors such as the general acceptance of CCS have to improve, to raise India s retrofit potential.