European Freight Forwarding Index 14 January 13 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Søren Toft stof@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 53 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12 of this report.
Main conclusion from survey Our proprietary European Freight Forwarding Index for December indicates that current volumes are falling compared with two months ago. The overall index value of current volumes came in at 41 compared with Novembers figure of 49. Participants expectations suggest flat volumes in the coming two months. 7 5 49 53 41 42 3 Jan-9 Jun-9 Nov-9 Apr-1 Sep-1 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 2
Lower volumes in December The freight forwarding index value for current volumes in December decreased to 41compared with 49 in November. Forward index values are now at 42 for January and 53 for February, which indicate expectations of flat volumes. volumes for Road (index 38) indicate that the current volume handled is down compared with two months ago. The index for November was 48. Expectations for Road (index 54) increased and indicate flat volume development over the next two months. Airfreight (index 42) indicates falling volume development. The index was down from Novembers reading of 59. Expectations for Airfreight (index 53 ) increased and indicate flat volumes over the next two months. The Seafreight (index 48) index value indicates flat volumes compared with two months ago. The index for November was 47. Expectations for Seafreight (index 54) increased and indicate flat volumes in the coming two-month period. 3
Segment breakdown of survey Road mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 48 54 48 38 Seafreight mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 47 48 37 54 Airfreight 59 53 42 41 mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 4
Country breakdown of survey Benelux Denmark mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 42 36 5 57 68 55 55 mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 Eastern Europe Finland 42 21 46 23 mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 35 42 31 38 mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 5
Country breakdown of survey Germany UK 43 45 43 33 mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 46 38 mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 46 67 Norway Sweden mar-1 okt-1 maj-11 dec-11 jul-12 63 65 56 5 21 mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 55 6
Country breakdown of survey Switzerland Other mar-1 okt-1 maj-11 dec-11 jul-12 57 57 5 mar-1 okt-1 maj-11 dec-11 jul-12 44 43 3 38 7
How the survey is conducted Our respondents have answered these two questions: What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volume. Unchanged volume. Higher volume. How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volume. Unchanged volume. Higher volume. Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between and, with values above 5 indicating expansion among participating companies. 8
Segment breakdown for participants Other 18% Airfreight 12% Road % Seafreight 3% 9
Country breakdown for participants Other 8% Benelux 6% UK 12% Denmark % Switzerland 5% Sweden 1% Eastern Europe 13% Norway 7% Germany 1% Finland 9% 1
Number of participants 19 Number of Participants 17 15 13 11 9 114 7 jan-9 apr-9 jul-9 okt-9 jan-1 apr-1 jul-1 okt-1 jan-11 apr-11 jul-11 okt-11 jan-12 apr-12 jul-12 okt-12 11
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