DFC Intelligence DFC Intelligence Phone 858 834-4340 12707 High Bluff Dr Fax 858-780-9380 Suite 200 www.dfcint.com San Diego, CA 92130 Worldwide Market Forecasts for the Video Game and Interactive Entertainment Industry: Table of Contents June 2013
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About This Report This report is part of our Worldwide Market Forecast series. Starting in 2004, DFC Intelligence began publishing its forecasts in a series of smaller reports, which together comprise our service entitled Worldwide Market Forecasts for the Video Game and Interactive Entertainment Industry. The focus of this report is on charts, graphs and numbers. There is not a great deal of analysis of industry trends. We save most of our analysis of trends, game genres and business issues to other DFC reports. This report comes with Excel files which allow users to do custom data pulls. This overview summarizes some of the more popular data. This report aggregates sales figures for the three major markets, North America, Japan and Europe. There is also a Rest of the World summary. There are a couple of points to note about this type of aggregation. First, no one tracks all the different markets on the same level. A major challenge in analyzing the interactive entertainment market is imperfect data. There are several services that track retail software sales for individual titles in specific markets around the world. These services are good for tracking how specific software sales do against each other but they do not always provide a complete picture of total aggregate sales. Furthermore, none of these services track the overall trend towards digital distribution that currently dominates the PC and mobile markets and is becoming a larger factor in the console market. Our model looks closely at historical data, consumer usage trends, manufacturer s shipments and the sales individual companies report as part of their required stock filings. This report represents the results of that model. However, we caution that a completely accurate picture of overall sales is impossible to come by. It should also be noted that there are other areas of consumer spending on interactive entertainment that are not tracked in this report. This would include spending on game accessories, game publications, game rentals, and used games and a significant portion of advertising. Those areas probably account for an additional $7-10 billion in worldwide consumer spending. Therefore, the numbers in this report tend to the conservative side. However, we feel they do give a solid indication of relative size and growth potential. DFC Intelligence has been working on building a model to track worldwide sales since 2001. Separate reports we have released have historical data prior to 2001. We caution users that prior to 2001, DFC focused primarily on the U.S. market. Therefore there may be some differences when trying to compare our pre-2001 numbers to our post- 2001 numbers. In addition we have continually added markets since 2004. In cases where there is not complete data on a market we only present comparisons as far back as we provide complete data. Finally, when it comes to warnings, there is the issue of the exchange rate. The numbers in this report come from different countries and thus results can be greatly affected by changes in the exchange rate. We have converted everything to dollars using a constant exchange rate, both for reporting current numbers and past numbers. We caution that we are always in the process of readjusting our numbers for fluctuating currency ratios and thus the actual numbers may change. This will be especially true when adjusting historical numbers for currency fluctuations. Worldwide Market Forecasts for the Video Game and Interactive Entertainment Industry has forecasts in this report are through 2018 and are broken down by 1) region (North America, Europe, Japan and the rest of the world (ROW)), 2) platform (dedicated portable game systems, PC games, console, mobile) and 3) hardware versus software sales. There is also a breakout for individual dedicated game systems including the major systems from Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony Published by DFC Intelligence www.dfcint.com 858.834.4340 3
Table of Contents I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 A. OVERVIEW 7 B. SUMMARY OF TOTAL WORLDWIDE SALES MARKET FORECASTS: 2008-2018 13 1. Total Worldwide Game Market 14 2. Retail Market and Online Market: 2008-2018 17 C. SUMMARY OF MARKET FORECASTS BY SEGMENT 22 1. Summary of PC Market Forecasts: 2008-2018 22 2. Summary of Console Market Forecasts: 2008-2018 23 3. Summary of Mobile Game Market Forecasts 29 II. PC GAME MARKET 34 III. CONSOLE SYSTEM OVERVIEW 41 A. MICROSOFT GAME SYSTEMS 41 B. NINTENDO GAME SYSTEMS 43 C. SONY GAME SYSTEMS 45 IV. CONSOLE SYSTEMS: 2005-2018 48 A. WORLDWIDE GENERATION 6 GAME SYSTEM MARKET FORECASTS 48 B. WORLDWIDE GENERATION 7 GAME SYSTEM MARKET FORECASTS 60 Published by DFC Intelligence www.dfcint.com 858.834.4340 4
List of Tables Table 1 Total Worldwide Game Software Market by Segment: 2008-2018... 14 Table 2 Total Worldwide Game Hardware Market by Segment: 2008-2018... 15 Table 3 Total Worldwide Game Market by Segment: 2008-2018... 16 Table 4 Total Worldwide Retail Sales for Software and Hardware: 2008-2018... 17 Table 5 Worldwide Total Retail Software Sales by Region: 2008-2018... 18 Table 6 Total Online Game Revenue: PC, Console, Portable and Mobile: 2008-2018... 19 Table 7 Total Worldwide Revenue for Online and Retail Game Hardware and Software: 2008-2018... 20 Table 8 Total Worldwide Retail and Online Game Sales... 21 Table 9 Total Worldwide PC Retail and Online Game Sales 2008-2018... 22 Table 10 Worldwide Console Hardware Unit Sales by Generation: 2008-2018... 23 Table 11 Worldwide Console Hardware Revenue by Generation: 2008-2018... 24 Table 12 Worldwide Console Software Retail Unit Sales by Generation: 2008-2018... 25 Table 13 Worldwide Console Software Retail Revenue by Generation: 2008-2018... 26 Table 14 Worldwide Console Software Online Revenue by Generation: 2008-2018... 27 Table 15 Worldwide Console Total Retail Online Game Revenue by Generation: 2008-2018... 28 Table 16 Dedicated Portable Game System Revenue Forecasts: 2008-2018... 29 Table 18 Total Mobile Game Software Market: (phones, music and tablets)... 32 Table 19 Total Portable Game Software Market: Dedicated Portable Software and Other Mobile Software (phones, music and tablets)... 33 Table 20 Worldwide PC Game Retail Revenue Forecasts by Region: 2008-2018... 35 Table 21 Worldwide PC Online Game Revenue by Region: 2008-2018... 36 Table 22 Total Worldwide PC Retail and Online Games Sales by Region: 2008-2018... 37 Table 23 Total Worldwide PC Retail and Online Game Sales 2008-2018... 39 Table 24 Microsoft Xbox 360 Hardware Unit Sales by Region: 2005-2018... 41 Table 25 Forecast for Microsoft Xbox One Game System by Region: 2012-2018... 41 Table 26 Nintendo Wii Hardware Unit Sales by Region: 2005-2018... 43 Table 27 Forecast for Nintendo Wii U by Region: 2012-2016... 43 Table 28 Sony PlayStation 3 Hardware Unit Sales by Region: 2005-2018... 45 Table 29 Sony PlayStation 4 Hardware Unit Sales by Region: 2012-2018... 45 Table 30 Forecasts for Worldwide Hardware Unit Sales of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2005-2018... 48 Table 31 Forecasts for Worldwide Hardware Revenue of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2005-2018... 50 Table 32 Forecasts for Worldwide Software Retail Unit Sales of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2005-2018... 50 Table 33 Forecasts for Worldwide Software Retail Revenue of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2005-2018... 51 Table 34 Forecasts for Worldwide Online Game Revenue of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2008-2018... 51 Table 35 Forecasts for Total Online and Retail Game Revenue of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2008-2018... 52 Table 37 Active Worldwide Installed Base of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2008-2018... 57 Table 38 Cumulative Worldwide Installed Base of Generation 6 Game Systems: 2008-2018... 57 Table 39 Forecasts for Worldwide Hardware Unit Sales of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 60 Table 40 Forecasts for Worldwide Hardware Revenue of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 61 Table 41 Forecasts for Worldwide Software Retail Unit Sales of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 61 Table 42 Forecasts for Worldwide Software Retail Revenue of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 62 Table 43 Forecasts for Worldwide Software Online Game Revenue of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 62 Table 44 Forecasts for Worldwide Total Online and Retail Game Revenue of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 62 Table 45 Forecasts for Total Worldwide Generation 7 Game Systems Market: 2012-2018... 65 Table 46 Forecasts for Worldwide Active Installed Base of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 67 Table 47 Forecasts for Worldwide Cumulative Installed Base of Generation 7 Game Systems: 2012-2018... 67 Published by DFC Intelligence www.dfcint.com 858.834.4340 5
Published by DFC Intelligence www.dfcint.com 858.834.4340 6