Canadian Consumer Credit Trends Q3 2015 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services
About Equifax Inc. Equifax is a global leader in consumer, commercial and workforce information solutions that provide businesses of all sizes and consumers with insight and information they can trust. Equifax organizes and assimilates data on more than 600 million consumers and 81 million businesses worldwide. The company s significant investments in differentiated data, its expertise in advanced analytics to explore and develop new multi-source data solutions, and its leading-edge proprietary technology enable it to create and deliver unparalleled customized insights that enrich both the performance of businesses and the lives of consumers. Headquartered in Atlanta, Equifax operates or has investments in 19 countries and is a member of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index. Its common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol EFX. In 2015, Forbes named Equifax one of the World s 100 Most Innovative companies; Bloomberg BusinessWeek nominated it as one of its Top 50 companies; its CIO was named one of the top 100 by CIO magazine; the company ranked 16 th in the Fintech 100 list; and it was recognized as a top 20 company to work for by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and was named a 2015 InformationWeek Elite 100 Winner. For more information, please visit www.equifax.com. The graphs contained in this report are for informational purposes only. Equifax Canada Co. makes no representation, claim, warranty, or guarantee in respect of the information contained herein. 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved. Contributors Regina Malina, Senior Director, Decision Insights Regina s background is in statistical analysis, campaign management and research with over 15 years of experience across various industries. Before joining Equifax as Director of Modeling and Analytics, she held senior analytics and customer and data insights roles at various organizations including Bank of Montreal, Loyalty One, and Intact Insurance (formerly ING Insurance). Regina brings knowledge from many industries including retail, financial, pharmaceutical, CPG and insurance. In her past roles, she developed statistical solutions, oversaw analytical and measurement projects, and assisted in the specification of best CRM practices related to campaign management, business intelligence application and data mining, ensuring optimal targeting for marketing communications. Regina holds a Master of Science degree in Statistics. Tara Zecevic, Vice President, Decision Solutions Tara has over 17 years of progressive experience within the financial services sector with a strong consultative approach to crafting solutions in both established and emerging markets. Tara s career has spanned marketing solutions, sales and product management for fraud, analytic and decisioning solutions. Tara has an Hon. B. Sc. and Certificate in Human Resources from University of Toronto. She currently sits on the Credit Canada Debt Solutions board and is also a member of the IAFCI, CSRSA and Credit Association. 2 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Introduction Introduction Methodology Key Consumer Credit Indicators
Introduction This report is part of the quarterly series of Equifax reports on Canada s consumer credit industry, including national credit cards, revolving and installment loans, as well as personal, retail, sales, auto finance and mortgages. Equifax is one of the most reliable sources of Canadian consumer credit data available. This report will help companies dealing with consumers assess where the market is trending in terms of indebtedness and creditworthiness. Methodology Data for this report, including scores, are sourced from the Equifax Canada data warehouse, which stores the majority of credit transactions that occur in Canada. There are over 25 million unique consumer files. Transaction volumes for data are estimated at 105 million per month. Information provided in this report was adjusted to ensure that quarterly data reflects the results as of the last month of each quarter. 4 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
In our interest rate announcement earlier this month, the Bank noted that the resource sector is continuing to adjust to lower prices, and that these complex adjustments will take considerable time. Our inflation-targeting regime will help facilitate these adjustments. Canada has seen this movie before we ve managed it well in the past, and I m confident we will continue to manage it well in the future. Commentary from Stephen Poloz Calgary Economic Development September 21st, 2015 Executive Summary In the first half of 2015 Canada was showing the signs of mild recession. Reduced interest rate and depreciation of Canadian dollar will support the economy as it adjusts to a new reality of low oil prices. Trend in consumer interest in new credit reversed course for the first time in nine consecutive quarters. This change is driven by several factor. While strong activity is still observed in the Auto sector, Bank and National Credit Cards sectors saw a material decrease. Regionally, all regions are increasing, with the most notable change in the Eastern region. As the risk profile of consumers with higher scores seeking more credit continues to deteriorate in 2015, we will continue to monitor these results in subsequent quarters to confirm if this is a new trend. Consumer debt continues to increase, driven largely by the Auto and Installment loan product categories. Low interest rates which resulted from two consecutive deceases of the overnight interest rate by the central bank continue to help consumers to responsibly maintain increasing debt levels and to contribute to GDP growth. Quebec and Eastern region are increasing their debt faster than other regions, but Quebec still maintains the lowest average debt and the Eastern region has the second highest. Average consumer debt increase in the Western region is driven by Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Overall, bankruptcies and delinquency rates remain stable. These metrics are lagging indicators, which are expected to show more significant changes following changes in the metrics impacted more immediately by the economic situation, such as unemployment rates. With oil patch situation being a new reality, the impacts on the oil-producing regions are expected to become more obvious. The delinquency rate in Alberta started to decrease in 2015 after declining for over four years, with the most recent increase of 13.4%. Close monitoring of key economic indicators is important as the outcomes and timing of the change within the current economic environment are still largely uncertain. 5 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Key Consumer Credit Indicators Change in Consumer Credit Indicators (compared to the same period last year): Average debt (consumer level, outstanding balances) Average debt (product level, outstanding balances) Consumer demand for new credit 2.0% 1.5% 2.7% 90 day+ delinquency rate 4.3% As of the third quarter of 2015, average consumer non-mortgage debt reached $21,312, while overall delinquency rate is at an all-time low of 1.05%. Consumer bankruptcies Average loss per consumer resulting from bankruptcies (excluding mortgage debt) 9.3% 5.1% 6 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Canada Overview Canada Real GDP Unemployment Rate Interest Rate
Macro Economic Environment The growth of Canadian economy was disappointing in the first part of 2015 being mainly impacted by a decrease in global oil prices. After GDP declined for two consecutive quarters, third quarter GDP grew due to positive results in exports and consumer spending. By mid-2017 Canadian economy is expected to return to full capacity and target inflation. Export activity, a key factor in economic growth, relies on increased U.S. demand, a weaker Canadian dollar, and low interest rate. All of these factors are still true in the current environment. The lower Canadian dollar also continues to provide increased purchasing power for consumers. The oversupply of oil globally continues to worsen. As the situation of lower oil prices may be here to stay, impacted provincial economies are adjusting to these changes and the challenges of this new reality. Oilproducing provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador) continue to slow down and reduce growth due to reduced investment in the oil sector, increased unemployment and a decrease in house prices. The unemployment rate at the end of third quarter increased to 7% from 6.8% in the previous quarter. Higher unemployment levels in Alberta and Saskatchewan continue to increase. The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark overnight rate at 0.5% in October 2015. The economy is expected to rebound with the support of the lowered rate and depreciation of the Canadian dollar. This is expected to help Canada to get closer to its targeted 2% inflation rate. Inflation rate in Canada increased by 1% in September of 2015, slowing down from a 1.3% in the previous month. This decrease is mainly due to the falling gasoline prices, as the prices were increasing in most other sectors, more notably food, household operations, furnishings and equipment and shelter.. According to the advance estimates, US GDP increased 1.5% in the third quarter of 2015, largely due to the rise in consumer spending and disposable personal income. With rise job growth and inflation, the US benchmark overnight rate may be increased in the coming months. Close monitoring of key economic indicators is important as the outcomes and timing of the change within the current economic environment are still largely uncertain. 8 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Canada Overview - GDP The growth of the Canadian economy was disappointing in the first part of 2015 being mainly impacted by a decrease in global oil prices. After GDP declined for two consecutive quarters, third quarter GDP grew due to positive results in exports and consumer spending. Previous declining performance of business investment and exports in the resource sector were among the main reasons for Bank of Canada s decision to slightly reduce its forecasts for 2016 and 2017. By mid-2017 the Canadian economy is expected to return to full capacity and target inflation. Source: Statistics Canada 9 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Canada Overview Unemployment Rate Canada s unemployment rate held at a consistent 6.8% for six consecutive months, but in the third quarter it increased to 7%. Provincially, Ontario, British Columbia, New Brunswick and Manitoba recorded increased employment, while Alberta recorded a decline. In other provinces there was little or no change. Higher unemployment levels in Alberta and Saskatchewan persist. Most gains are observed in full time. Source: Statistics Canada 10 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Canada Overview Interest Rate In early 2015, the overnight interest rate was changed to 0.75% after remaining unchanged at 1% for over 4 years. In July 2015, it was reduced further to 0.5% as Bank of Canada felt that additional monetary stimulus was required to ensure the economy can work at full capacity. A constant lowinterest rate environment continues to be a main driver for the continued increase in consumer credit indebtedness. Source: Bank of Canada 11 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Consumer Debt Trends Total Debt Average Debt - Major Cities
Total Debt Distribution and Trends All Credit Products Consumer total debt is still on the rise. As of Q3 2015, Canadian consumers owe $1,587.5 billion, compared to $1,568.0 billion in Q2 2015 and $1,513.1 billion a year earlier; an increase of 1.24% and 4.92%, respectively. On a debt classification basis, the installment loan and auto loan sectors are showing significant increases of 8.1% and 5.1% yearover-year, respectively. Number of accounts increased, mainly driven by Installment Loans, National Credit Cards and Auto. The number of National Credit Cards and Auto loans increased faster than in the previous quarter. Mortgage figures are based on information reported to Equifax and do not include the entire Mortgage market. 13 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Consumer Debt Trends Total Debt Average Debt - Major Cities
Average Debt Toronto (Consumer Level) Average debt and limits show steady increases over the past six quarters while utilization continues to decrease. 15 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Average Debt Montreal (Consumer Level) The growth of average balances and limits has risen again this quarter. 16 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Average Debt Vancouver (Consumer Level) Average balance decreased this quarter, driving utilization further down. 17 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Average Debt Calgary (Consumer Level) Average balances have increased slightly, but not enough to change the trend of decreasing utilization. 18 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Average Debt Ottawa (Consumer Level) Average balances and limits have increased, while utilization decreases. 19 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Average Debt Edmonton (Consumer Level) Average limits have increased faster than balances resulting in decreases in utilization. 20 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Average Debt Halifax (Consumer Level) Average balances and limits continue to increase while average utilization shows little change. 21 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Average Debt St. John s (Consumer Level) Average balances and limits continue to increase while average utilization decreases. 22 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Credit Risk Trends Delinquency Bankruptcy
Summary Delinquency Trends After the national 90+ delinquency rate has consistently decreased over three years and then increased in Q1/2015. In the subsequent two quarters it went down and is now at its lowest level of 1.05%. When compared to the same quarter last year, the national 90+ delinquency rate decreased, largely driven by the changes in Ontario. Improvements are also seen in Quebec and Eastern provinces this quarter. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and PEI impacted the decrease in the delinquency rate within the Eastern region. Notably, in the Western region the delinquency rate trend reversed course over the past two quarters: it increased twice after declines over several years. This was driven by significant increases within the oil-producing Western provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Despite changes in some regional trends, the Western region still has the lowest delinquency rate, while the Eastern region has the highest. After customers within the 65+ age segment showed an increase in delinquency last quarter for the first time in years, the decrease this quarter was consistent in all age groups. Auto loan delinquency rates continue to increase when compared to the previous quarter, but slower. The mortgage 90+ delinquency rate is 0.22%. 24 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
90+ Delinquency Rate (Except Mortgage) Note: Delinquency is defined as 90 + days or worse on a trade. Delinquency Rate = Total Delinquent Balance/Total Balance 25 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Credit Risk Trends Delinquency Bankruptcy
Summary Bankruptcy Trends The number of bankruptcies has decreased since 2009. Ontario continues to lead in terms of the rate of decrease of bankruptcies. The number of bankruptcies within Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador increased this quarter. Average bankruptcy balance increased in Q3 2015 when compared to the same quarter last year, mainly driven by the younger segments, and all regions but Ontario. Within bankruptcies, the proportion of proposals continues to increase, especially in Ontario and Alberta. 27 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Bankruptcies 28 Equifax Canadian Consumer Credit Trends 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
Canadian Consumer Credit Trends Q3 2015 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services About Equifax Inc. Equifax is a global leader in consumer, commercial and workforce information solutions that provide businesses of all sizes and consumers with insight and information they can trust. Equifax organizes and assimilates data on more than 600 million consumers and 81 million businesses worldwide. The company s significant investments in differentiated data, its expertise in advanced analytics to explore and develop new multi-source data solutions, and its leading-edge proprietary technology enable it to create and deliver unparalleled customized insights that enrich both the performance of businesses and the lives of consumers. Headquartered in Atlanta, Equifax operates or has investments in 19 countries and is a member of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index. Its common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol EFX. In 2015, Forbes named Equifax one of the World s 100 Most Innovative companies; Bloomberg BusinessWeek nominated it as one of its Top 50 companies; its CIO was named one of the top 100 by CIO magazine; the company ranked 16th in the Fintech 100 list; and it was recognized as a top 20 company to work for by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and was named a 2015 InformationWeek Elite 100 Winner. For more information, please visit www.equifax.com. The graphs contained in this report are for informational purposes only. Equifax Canada Co. makes no representation, claim, warranty, or guarantee in respect of the information contained herein. 2015 Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.