UK General Election Constituency Data Tables last updated Tuesday 28 th April 2015



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UK General Election Constituency Data Tables last updated Tuesday 28 th April 2015 The tables below list constituencies by alphabetical order. If you are unsure of your constituency, you can find out at http://www.theyworkforyou.com/. This information will be updated periodically: please check www.scotlandinunion.co.uk for the latest version. This version (28 th April) contains one significant change: Edinburgh West, where the evidence suggests that Lib Dem Mike Crockart is the leading pro-uk candidate. This is based on local sources, consideration of the odds and past results, and the advantage of incumbency (which is often significant). We ve also updated the odds for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, but Scotland In Union isn t in a position to make a call on that seat. A note on bookmakers odds: these are not necessarily predictions, not least because the bookies adjust them based on bets placed, but they do help to show which candidates might be ahead. Normal odds are a high number then a low one, e.g. 20/1, and in that case 10/1 is probably more likely to happen than 20/1. Where the odds are inverted, e.g. 3/8, read them the other way round (as fractions), e.g. 7/4 is more likely than 5/4. To help make things clearer, we have used bold font and the candidate s name to highlight the leading pro-scotland, pro-uk candidate in the list of bookies odds. Aberdeen North 1 st Labour (Frank 44% No Info SNP 1/4 Doran) 2 nd SNP 22% No Info Labour (Richard Baker) 7/2 3 rd Lib Dems 19% No Info UKIP 100/1 4 th Conservative 12.4% No Info Conservatives, Lib-Dems 150/1 SNP Target #4 Aberdeen South 1 st Labour ( Anne 36.5% No Info SNP 2/5 Begg) 2 nd Lib Dems 28.40% No Info Labour (Anne Begg) 11/4 3 rd Conservatives 20.7% No Info Conservatives 66/1 4 th SNP 11.9% No Info Lib Dems 100/1 Lib Dem target #1 Page 1 of 16

Airdrie and Shotts 1 st Labour (Pamela 58.2% SNP 47% SNP 2/5 Nash) 2 nd SNP 23.5% Labour 39% Labour (Pamela Nash) 3/1 3 rd Conservatives 8.7% Conservatives 7% UKIP 200/1 4 th Lib-Dems 8.1% Conserv and Lib-Dems 200/1 Angus 1 st SNP (Mike Weir) 39.6% No Info SNP 1/100 2 nd Conservatives 30.9% No Info Conservatives (Derek 40/1 Wann) 3 rd Labour 17.2% No Info Labour 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 10.8% No Info Green, UKIP 100/1 Conservative target #2 Argyll and Bute 1 st Lib Dems (Alan Reid 31.6% No Info SNP 1/12 ) 2 nd Conservatives 24% No Info Lib Dems (Alan Reid) 16/1 3 rd Labour 22.7% No Info Conservative, Labour 33/1 4 th SNP 18.9% No Info UKIP 200/1 Ayr, Carrick and Cummock Result % Ashcroft, Feb % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Labour(Sandra 47% SNP 42% SNP 3/10 Osborne) 2 nd Conservatives 25.5% Labour 31% Labour (Sandra 9/2 Osborne) 3 rd SNP 18% Conservatives 21% Conservatives 50/1 4 th Lib-Dems 9.3% Lib-Dems and UKIP 200/1 Page 2 of 16

Banff and Buchan 1 st SNP (Eildh 43.3% No Info SNP 1/100 Whiteford) 2 nd Conservatives 30.8% No Info Conservatives (Alex 25/1 Johnstone) 3 rd Labour 14% No Info Labour, UKIP 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 11.3% No Info Largest swing recorded in Scotland (10.6 SNP to CON) Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk Result % Ashcroft, April % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Lib Dems(Michael 45.4% Conservatives 30% Lib Dems (Michael 2/1 Moore) Moore) 2 nd Conservatives 33.8% SNP 29% Conservatives 7/4 3 rd Labour 10.2% Lib Dems 28% SNP 11/4 4 th SNP 9.2% Labour 9% UKIP, Labour 200/1 A really difficult one to call, with Ashcroft clearly showing that the split vote could return the SNP thanks to first-past-the-post. All three leading parties are within Ashcroft s margin of error. The bookies area offering almost identical odds, too. Voters in this constituency have a difficult choice, unless some other information emerges before 7 th May. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 1 st LibDems(John 41.4% No Info SNP 1/3 Thurso) 2 nd Labour 24.6% No Info Lib Dems (John Thurso) 4/1 3 rd SNP 19.2% No Info Labour 33/1 4 th Conservative 13% No Info Conservatives 150/1 Central Ayrshire 1 st Labour(Brian 47.7% No Info Labour (Brian 8/13 Donohoe) Donohoe) 2 nd Conservatives 20.4% No Info SNP 2/1 3 rd SNP 19% No Info Conservatives 80/1 4 th Lib-Dems 11.9% No Info Lib-Dems, 125/1 Page 3 of 16

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill 1 st Labour(Tom 66.6% SNP 46% Labour (Tom Clarke) 5/6 Clarke) 2 nd SNP 16.9% Labour 43% SNP 13/8 3 rd Lib Dems 8.5% Conservatives 6% Greens, UKIP 150/1 4 th Conservative 8.1% Conservatives, Lib-Dems 200/1 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East 1 st Labour(Gregg 57.2% SNP 52% SNP 1/6 McClymont) 2 nd SNP 23.8% Labour 34% Labour (Gregg 11/2 McClymont) 3 rd Lib-Dems 9.5% Conservatives 6% Greens 100/1 4 th Conservative 8.3% UKIP,Conserv,Lib Dems 200/1 Dumfries and Galloway 1 st Labour(Russell 45% SNP 34% Labour (Russell 15/8 Brown) Brown) 2 nd Conservatives 31.6% Conservatives 30% SNP 5/4 3 rd SNP 12.3% Labour 28% Conservatives 5/1 4 th Lib-Dems 8.8% Green 100/1 Bookies in March and April disagree with Ashcroft in Jan. This is a close one to call, but it is interesting that the bookies odds have widened since March. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Result % Ashcroft, April % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Conservatives(David 38% SNP 36% Conservatives 4/5 Mundell) (David Mundell) 2 nd Labour 28.9% Conservatives 34% SNP 6/4 3 rd Lib Dems 19.8% Labour 20% Labour 40/1 4 th SNP 10.8 Lib Dems 4% Green 100/1 Conservative target #3. Polls and bookies close between SNP and Conservatives but consistent in showing both ahead of Labour. Page 4 of 16

Dundee East 1 st SNP(Stewart Hosie) 37.8% No Info SNP 1/100 2 nd Labour 33% No Info Labour( Lesley 40/1 Brennan) 3 rd Conservatives 15.2% No Info UKIP 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 10.6% No Info Conserv and Lib-Dems 200/1 Labour target #1 Dundee West 1 st Labour( Jim 48% SNP 59% SNP 1/19 McGovern) 2 nd SNP 37.8% Labour 25% Labour( Jim McGovern) 14/1 3 rd Lib Dems 11.4% Conservatives 6% UKIP 100/1 4 th Conservative 9.3% Conservatives 125/1 SNP target #2 Dunfermline and West Fife 1 st Labour(Thomas 46.3% No Info Labour (Thomas 11/10 Docherty) Docherty) 2 nd Lib Dems 35.1% No Info SNP 6/5 3 rd SNP 10.6% No Info Lib Dems, UKIP 125/1 4 th Conservative 6.8% No Info Conservative 200/1 East Dunbartonshire Result % Ashcroft, April % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Lib Dems(Jo 38.7% SNP 40% SNP 2/5 Swinson) 2 nd Labour 34.1% Lib Dems 29% Lib Dems( Jo Swinson) 4/1 3 rd Conservatives 15.5% Labour 16% Labour 25/1 4 th SNP 10.5% Conservatives 12% Conservative 100/1 Labour target #3. Recent Ashcroft poll confirms bookies view of Lib Dems vs SNP. Page 5 of 16

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 1 st Labour(Michael 51.1% No Info SNP 1/3 McCann) 2 nd SNP 23% No Info Labour (Michael 7/2 McCann) 3 rd Conservatives 13% No Info Green, UKIP 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 9.9% LIB-Dems 150/1 East Lothian 1 st Labour(Fiona 44.6% No Info Labour (Fiona 4/5 O Donnell) O Donnell) 2 nd Conservatives 19.7% No Info SNP 13/8 3 rd Lib Dems 16.9% No Info Conservatives, UKIP 100/1 4 th SNP 16% No Info Green 100/1 East Renfrewshire Result % Ashcroft, April % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Labour(Jim 50.8% SNP 40%% Labour (Jim Murphy) 1/1 Murphy) 2 nd Conservatives 30.4% Labour 31% SNP 1/1 3 rd Lib Dems 9.2% Conservatives 25% Conservatives 25/1 4 th SNP 8.9% Lib Dems 3% Lib-Dems, 125/1 Ashcroft puts the SNP ahead, though the bookies give equal odds to SNP and Labour. Edinburgh East 1 st Labour(Sheila 43.4% No Info SNP 1/3 Gilmore) 2 nd SNP 20.4% No Info Labour (Sheila Gilmore) 5/1 3 rd Lib Dems 19.4% No Info Greens 66/1 4 th Conservative 10.9% No Info Lib-Dems 150/1 Page 6 of 16

Edinburgh North and Leith 1 st Labour(Mark 37.5% No Info Labour (Mark 7/4 Lazarowicz) Lazarowicz) 2 nd Lib Dems 33.8% No Info SNP 5/6 3 rd Conservatives 14.9% No Info Lib Dems 66/1 4 th SNP 9.6% No Info Greens 80/1 Lib Dem target #2 Edinburgh South 1 st Labour(Ian Murray) 34.7% No Info Labour (Ian Murray) 11/10 2 nd Lib Dems 34% No Info SNP 1/1 3 rd Conservatives 21.6% No Info Conservatives 20/1 4 th SNP 7.7% No Info Lib-Dems 80/1 Edinburgh South West Result % Ashcroft, Feb % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Labour (Alistair 42.8% SNP 40% SNP 1/2 Darling) 2 nd Conservatives 24.3% Labour 27% Labour (Ricky 3/1 Henderson) 3 rd Lib Dems 18% Conservatives 19% Conservatives 33/1 4 th SNP 12.2% Greens 80/1 Edinburgh West Result % % As at 28/4/2015 Odds 1 st Lib Dems 35.9% No Info SNP 8/13 (Michael Crockart) 2 nd Labour 27.7% No Info Lib Dems (Mike 5/1 Crockart) 3 rd Conservatives 23.2% No Info Labour 5/1 4 th SNP 13.2% No Info Conservative 16/1 Recent change (28 April): We believe Mike Crockart MP is the leading pro-uk candidate. This is based on local sources as well as the data above. Local information suggests he has the edge over Labour and confirm what the bookmakers odds suggest in terms of the Conservatives being unlikely to win the seat. Page 7 of 16

Falkirk 1 st Labour 45.7% No Info SNP 1/6 (Eric Joyce) 2 nd SNP 30.3% No Info Labour (Karen 7/1 Whitefield) 3 rd Conservatives 11.2% No Info Green 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 10.3% No Info Conservative, Lib-Dems 150/1 Glasgow Central 1 st Labour(Anas 52% SNP 45% SNP 1/2 Sarwar) 2 nd SNP 17.5% Labour 35% Labour (Anas Sarwar) 5/1 3 rd Lib Dems 16.4% Conservatives 5% Greens 150/1 4 th Conservative 7.1% Conserv, Lib-Dems,UKIP 200/1 Glasgow East 1 st Labour(Margaret 61% SNP 51% SNP 1/3 Curran) 2 nd SNP 24.7% Labour 37% Labour (Margaret 5/1 Curran) 3 rd Lib Dems 5% Conservatives 4% SSP 100/1 4 th Conservative 4.5% Greens, Conserv,Lib 200/1 Dems,UKIP Glasgow North 1 st Labour(Anne 44.5% SNP 45% SNP 1/6 McKechin) 2 nd Lib Dems 31.3% Labour 33% Labour (Anne 6/1 McKechin) 3 rd SNP 11.9% Conservatives 5% Lib Dems 125/1 4 th Conservative 7.1% Conserv, UKIP 200/1 Page 8 of 16

Glasgow North East 1 st Labour(Willie Bain) 68.3% Labour 46% Labour (William Bain) 4/5 2 nd SNP 14.1% SNP 39% SNP 6/4 3 rd Lib Dems 7.7% Conservatives 4% Lib Dems 125/1 4 th Conservative 5.3% Conservatives 200/1 Glasgow North West 1 st Labour(John 54.1% SNP 44% SNP 8/13 Robertson) 2 nd Lib Dems 15.8% Labour 38% Labour (John 5/2 Robertson) 3 rd SNP 15.3% Conservatives 7% Conservatives 200/1 4 th Conservatives 9.9% Lib Dems 500/1 Glasgow South 1 st Labour(Tom Harris) 51.7% SNP 48% SNP 4/11 2 nd SNP 20.1% Labour 33% Labour (Tom Harris) 6/11 3 rd Lib Dems 11.8% Conservatives 9% Conservatives, Lib Dems 150/1 4 th Conservatives 11.5% Greens 200/1 Glasgow South West 1 st Labour(Ian 62.5% SNP 55% SNP 1/4 Davidson 2 nd SNP 16.3% Labour 34% Labour (Ian Davidson) 6/1 3 rd Lib Dems 9% Conservatives 6% Conservative 125/1 4 th Conservative 6.6% Lib Dems 2% Green, Lib-Dems,UKP 200/1 Page 9 of 16

Glenrothes 1 st Labour(Lindsay Roy) 62.3% No Info Labour (Melanie Ward) 3/11 2 nd SNP 21.7% No Info SNP 4/7 3 rd Lib Dems 7.7% No Info Conservative 150/1 4 th Conservatives 7.2% No Info UKIP, Lib-Dems,Greens 200/1 Gordon 1 st Lib Dems(Malcolm 36% SNP 43% SNP 1/8 Bruce) 2 nd SNP 22.2% Lib Dems 26% Lib Dems (Christine 8/1 Jardine) 3 rd Labour 20.1% Labour 14% Labour, Conservatives 66/1 4 th Conservatives 18.7% Greens 200/1 Inverclyde 1 st Labour(David 56% No Info SNP 1/3 Cairns) 2 nd Lib Dems 36% No Info Labour( Ian McKenzie) 3/1 3 rd SNP 17.5% No Info UKIP 150/1 4 th Conservatives 12% No Info Conserv, Lib-Dems 200/1 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 1 st LibDems(Danny 40.7% SNP 50% SNP 1/6 Alexander) 2 nd Labour 22.1% Lib Dems 21% Lib Dems( Danny 6/1 Alexander) 3 rd SNP 18.7% Labour 13% Labour 50/1 4 th Conservatives 13.3% Conservatives 150/1 Page 10 of 16

Kilmarnock and Loudoun 1 st Labour(Cathy 52.5% No Info SNP 4/11 Jamieson) 2 nd SNP 26% No Info Labour (Cathy 6/1 Jamieson) 3 rd Conservatives 14.2% No Info UKIP 125/1 4 th Lib-Dems 7.3% No Info Conserv, Lib-Dems 150/1 SNP Target #3 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Result % Ashcroft, Feb % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Labour(Gordon 64.5% SNP 45% Labour (Kenny Selbie) 2/1 Brown) 2 nd SNP 14.3% Labour 39% SNP 8/15 3 rd Lib Dems 9.3% Conservatives 7% Conservatives 150/1 4th Conservatives 9.3% Lib-Dems,UKIP 200/1 Lanark and Hamilton East 1 st Labour 50% No Info SNP 1/3 (Jim Hood) 2 nd SNP 21% No Info Labour(Jim Hood) 5/1 3 rd Conservatives 15% No Info Greens 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 11.3% Conserv,Lib-Dem, UKIP 150/1 Linlithgow and East Falkirk 1 st Labour(Michael 49.8% No Info SNP 259 Connarty) 2 nd SNP 25.4% No Info Labour (Michael 7/2 Connarty) 3 rd Lib-Dems 12.8% No Info UKIP 125/1 4 th Conservatives 11.9% Conserv and Lib-Dems 150/1 Page 11 of 16

Livingston 1 st Labour(Graham 48.5% No Info SNP 1/4 Morrice) 2 nd SNP 25.9% No Info Labour (Graham 6/1 Morrice) 3 rd Lib Dems 11.1% No Info Conserv, Lib Dems 150/1 4 th Conservatives 10.8% No Info I UKIP 200/1 Midlothian 1 st Labour(David 47% No Info SNP 3/10 Hamilton) 2 nd SNP 20.6% No Info Labour (Kenny Young) 6/1 3 rd Lib Dems 17.1% No Info Greens 100/1 4 th Conservatives 11.9% No Info Conserv, Lib-Dems,UKIP 125/1 Moray 1 st SNP (Angus 39.7% No Info SNP 1/100 Robertson) 2 nd Conservatives 26.1% No Info Conservatives (Douglas 50/1 Ross) 3 rd Labour 17.1% No Info Labour 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 14.5% Green, UKIP 100/1 Motherwell & Wishaw 1 st Labour (Frank Roy) 61% SNP 50% SNP 4/9 2 nd SNP 18.2% Labour 39% Labour (Frank Roy) 10/3 3 rd Lib Dems 9.8% Conservatives 5% Conservatives, 150/1 4 th Conservatives 9.4% Greens, Lib Dems,UKIP 200/1 Page 12 of 16

Na h-eileanan an Iar 1 st SNP(Angus 45.7% No Info SNP 1/25 MacNeil) 2 nd Labour 32.9% No Info Labour (Alasdair 20/1 Morrison) 3 rd Independent 9.6% No Info Lib-Dems, Conserv 500/1 4 th Lib-Dems 7.5% UKIP 1000/1 North Ayrshire and Arran 1 st Labour 47% No Info SNP 1/5 (Katy Clark) 2 nd SNP 25.9% No Info Labour(Katy Clark) 9/1 3 rd Conservatives 15.6% No Info Conservatives 125/1 4 th Lib-Dems 10% No Info UKIP 150/1 North East Fife Result % Ashcroft April % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 16 th 2015 1 st Lib Dems (Menzies 44.3% SNP 43% SNP 1/5 Campbell) 2 nd Conservatives 21.8% Lib Dems 30% Lib Dems(Tim Brett) 11/2 3 rd Labour 17.1% Conservatives 16% Conservatives 100/1 4 th SNP 14.2% Labour 9% Labour, UKIP 125/1 Menzies Campbell is standing down. Ochil and South Perthshire 1 st Labour(Gordon 37.9% No Info SNP 1/8 Banks) 2 nd SNP 27.6% No Info Labour( Gordon Banks) 9/2 3 rd Conservatives 20.5% No Info Conservatives, Greens 100/1 4 th Lib-Dems 11.4% No Info Lib-Dems 150/1 SNP Target #1 Page 13 of 16

Orkney and Shetland 1 st Lib-Dems 62% No Info Lib Dems (Alistair 2/9 (Alistair Carmichael) Carmichael) 2 nd Labour 10.7% No Info SNP 9/2 3 rd SNP 10.6% No Info Conservatives 100/1 4 th Conservatives 10.5% Labour, UKIP 125/1 Paisley and Renfrewshire North Result % Ashcroft April % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 16 th 2015 1 st Labour(Jim 54% SNP 50% SNP 1/2 Sheriden) 2 nd SNP 19.1% Labour 39% Labour (Jim Sheriden) 3/1 3 rd Conservatives 14.6% Conservatives 6% Conservatives, UKIP 150/1 4 th Lib-Dems 10.5% Lib Dems 1% Lib-Dems 200/1 Paisley and Renfrewshire South 1 st Labour(Douglas 59.6% SNP 48% Labour (Douglas 11/4 Alexander) Alexander) 2 nd SNP 18.1% Labour 40% SNP 4/9 3 rd Conservatives 9.9% Conservatives 6% Conservatives, Lib 150/1 Dems 4th Lib-Dems 9.5% UKIP 200/1 Perth and North Perthshire 1 st SNP(Pete Wishart) 39.6% No Info SNP 1/33 2 nd Conservatives 30.5% No Info Conservatives 25/1 (Alexander Stewart) 3 rd Labour 16.4% No Info Labour 25/1 4 th Lib-Dems 12.3% No Info UKIP 125/1 Conservative target #1 Page 14 of 16

Ross, Skye and Lochaber Result % Ashcroft, April % As at 18/4/2015 Odds 1 st Lib Dems 52% SNP 48% SNP 4/9 (Charles Kennedy) 2 nd Labour 15.1% Lib Dems 33% Lib Dems (Charles 7/2 Kennedy) 3 rd SNP 15.1% Conservatives 7% Green 100/1 4 th Conservatives 12.2% Labour 6% Labour 150/1 Rutherglen and Hamilton West 1 st Labour(Tom 60.8% No Info SNP 5/4 Greatrex) 2 nd SNP 16.1% No Info Labour ( Tom Greatrex) 7/4 3 rd Lib Dems 12% No Info UKIP 150/1 4 th Conservatives 9.7% No Info Conserv, Lib-Dems 200/1 Stirling 1 st Labour(Anne 41.8% No Info SNP 4/11 McGuire) 2 nd Conservatives 23.9% No Info Labour (Johanna Boyd) 5/1 3 rd SNP 17.3% No Info Conservatives 80/1 4 th Lib-Dems 14.5% UKIP, Green 125/1 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Result % Ashcroft, Feb % As at 28/4/2015 Odds 1 st Lib-Dems 38.4% SNP 39% SNP 1/3 (Robert Smith) 2 nd Conservatives 30.3% Conservatives 25% Conservatives 11/2 (Alexander Burnett) 3 rd SNP 15.7% Lib Dems 10% Lib Dems 6/1 4 th Labour 13.6% Labour 125/1 Another close one, with clear potential for SNP to win due to split vote. Use reliable local sources if you can. Page 15 of 16

West Dunbartonshire 1 st Labour( Gemma 61.3% SNP 47% SNP 1/2 Doyle) 2 nd SNP 20.1% Labour 38% Labour(Gemma Doyle) 9/2 3 rd Lib Dems 8.1% Conservatives 6% Greens 100/1 4 th Conservatives 7.7% UKIP 125/1 Page 16 of 16

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