ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN YOUR REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAINS CHRIS BROWN SENIOR ASSOCIATE REMI

ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN YOUR REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAINS CHRIS BROWN SENIOR ASSOCIATE REMI

Regional Economy Through the Lens of REMI

Defining Supply Chains Firm Supply Chain Management vs Inter-industry demand

Input Output What it takes to produce a dollar of output

Regional Supply Chains I/O shows flow of dollars across industries Regional models account for borders Regional Purchase Coefficients tell us how much of demand is supplied locally Industry A Imports/Exports Relative prices and distances drive trade Imports/Exports

Modeling Strategies 1. Baseline - Help to understand your current strengths and weaknesses. 2. Simulations - Model scenarios to test relative impacts of different sectors

Regional Baseline What are strong industries High output Location Quotients High RPC High growth What are weak industries Declining Output High Imports Demographics Existing Occupations Commuter Flows Per Capita Concepts

RPC s Motion Picture, sound recording and video production in all CA counties

Industry Snapshot Motion picture, video, and sound recording industries Demand 2014 2024 Los Angeles County 10.72991 10.919 San Diego County 1.422036 1.91919 Orange County 1.276002 1.87701 Santa Clara County 1.040193 1.390534 Self Supply 2014 2024 Los Angeles County 9.4563 9.421606 Alameda County 0.113715 0.14763 San Francisco County 0.104139 0.118104 Santa Clara County 0.037107 0.04921 San Diego County 0.02 0.032338 LA County Exports Category 2014 2024 Motion picture, video, and sound recording industries 37.29014 49.86098 Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services 9.639441 15.7233 Independent artists, writers, and performers 8.742888 13.6143

Industry Sales Growth Output Growth in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Equipment Manufacturing

Industry Output Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Equipment Manufacturing Output Growth (Billions of fixed 2005$) 2004-2014 $ Growth 2014-2024 $ Growth 2004-2014 % Growth 2014-2024 % Growth Santa Clara County 19.375 24.758 99.0% 63.6% San Francisco County 0.303 0.288 189.4% 62.2% San Diego County 1.09 1.735 84.0% 72.7%

Economic Impact Analysis Targeting Industries What industries have largest regional impact? Industry A Where are opportunities for import substitution? Imports/Exports Imports/Exports

Targeting Industries Run Multiple Simulations Use a standard input across multiple sectors Run over multiple years Evaluate and Score Multiple Results Jobs/Quality of Jobs Average wages GDP contribution

Economic Impact Simulation Santa Clara County, CA Simulation INPUT 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Increase in Sales (billions $) Motion Picture, video and sound recording 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 RESULTS Change in Employment (thousands) 14.6 14.1 13.3 12.2 6.3 5.2 5.5 5.1 4.8 3.8 Gross Domestic Product (billions$) 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 Output (billions$) 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.0 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.1

Intermediate Demand Santa Clara County, CA (billion $) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 876 890 899 879 482 433 487 473 457 379 Wholesale trade 402 410 416 409 229 207 234 231 227 192 Professional, scientific, and technical services 334 341 345 338 187 167 188 189 188 159 Management of companies and enterprises 223 227 229 226 127 115 132 132 132 113 Chemical manufacturing 175 177 180 178 100 92 103 103 101 86 Fabricated metal product manufacturing 136 139 142 139 78 70 78 76 75 62 Primary metal manufacturing 134 135 135 131 74 66 75 74 71 59 Real estate 97 98 98 95 52 47 53 52 52 44 Administrative and support services 95 96 95 93 50 44 50 49 49 41 Monetary authorities - central bank; Credit intermediation what does REMI and say? related sm activities; Funds, trusts, & other financial vehicles 77 78 78 75 41 36 39 39 39 33

Imports to Santa Clara County, CA Category 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Imports 2724 2801 2850 2816 1676 1519 1670 1646 1614 1394 Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing 468 476 483 478 272 250 283 282 280 240 Management of companies and enterprises 183 185 188 186 106 96 109 110 110 94 Wholesale trade 156 159 161 159 92 83 92 91 90 77 Basic chemical manufacturing 95 96 97 98 56 52 58 57 57 48 Nonferrous metal (except aluminum) production and processing 93 93 94 91 52 47 53 51 50 43

In Short Regional Models and Supply Chains Better understand existing relationships Target Industries Economic Impact Import Substitution