NACAC State of College Admission THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR COLLEGE ADMISSION COUNSELING AUGUST 2007 A government relations and leadership program for NACAC members AUTHORS: David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy NACAC Melissa E. Clinedinst Assistant Director of Research NACAC
2007 NACAC Board of Directors President Mary Lee Hoganson College Consultant, Retired Homewood Flossmoor High School, IL President-elect Kimberly Johnston Senior Associate Director of Admission The University of Maine, ME Past President Beverly Henry Wheeler Texas Regional Representative of Admission University of Tulsa, OK Coordinator of the State and Regional Presidents Council Ann Kjorstad Director of Admission Hamline University, MN Chief Executive Officer Joyce E. Smith Ex Officio NACAC, VA Directors Sherri L. Geller Associate Director of College Counseling and International Student Advisor Dana Hall School, MA Esther B. Hugo Outreach Coordinator Santa Monica College, CA Allen V. Lentino Senior Associate Director of Admission and Financial Aid Northwestern University, IL James L. Miller Coordinator of Institutional and Enrollment Research University of Wisconsin-Superior, WI Sam Moss Dean of College Guidance Darlington School, GA Carl Peterson Counseling Department Chair Forest Hills Eastern High School, MI Lisa Sohmer Director of College Counseling Garden School, NY Evelyn Boyd White Guidance Coordinator Thomas Dale High School, VA Copyright 2007 National Association for College Admission Counseling All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher, except for brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. Additional copies of the 2007 State of College Admission are available for members ($20) and for nonmembers ($35) plus $5 shipping by sending orders to: NACAC 1631 Prince Street Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone: 800/822-6285 Fax: 703/836-8015
Preface The National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC) offers the State of College Admission each spring to describe key trends in the transition from high school to college. The 2007 edition marks the fifth anniversary of this report. Over the past five years, the association has observed relatively consistent trends. The exceptional events of each year have provided most of the grist for the national discussion over college admission. However, as we will document in this preface, even seemingly isolated incidents relate to what we believe is the crux of the conversation about college admission the need to reconcile, among all stakeholders, behaviors that arise from self-interest with those that would support the collective good of distributing fair and equitable access to postsecondary education so that our children, our schools, our states, and our nation prosper. Competition in College Admission Increasing competition for admission to the most selective institutions was perhaps the biggest college admission story of the 2006 07 admission cycle. Many highly selective colleges reported their lowest-ever acceptance rates. This trend is not surprising in light of the background information presented in Chapter 1 of this report. The nation is experiencing an all-time high in the number of students who graduate from high school. In addition, more than 60 percent of high school graduates are enrolling in college within a year of graduating from high school, up from 49 percent in the mid-1970s, during the baby boom bulge. Finally, students are submitting more college applications per capita than at any previous time in history. However, as we point out in Chapter 2, four-year colleges and universities continue to accept an average of nearly seven out of every ten applicants for admission, a statistic that has remained relatively unchanged since the mid-1980s. How do we reconcile these seemingly contradictory data? It is important to remember that more than 80 percent of four-year colleges accept more than 50 percent of the students who apply to their institutions. Admission procedures at these institutions are, on balance, more inclusive, whereas highly selective college admission is, on balance, more exclusive. Moreover, those institutions that accept more than 50 percent of applicants serve a large majority (84 percent) of our nation s first-year students. In an environment where exclusivity breeds higher demand, it is little wonder that the opportunities available at this silent majority of colleges receive minimal fanfare amid sensational stories of historic levels of exclusivity in college admission. The 2007 State of College Admission tells this story through data, though the message is often lost in the myriad ways in which the data can be interpreted. Increasing competition among highly selective colleges is not in doubt. However, available data also suggest that there is plenty of room in the nation s array of four-year colleges and universities for everyone who is interested in pursuing a degree. Institutional self-interest among four-year institutions seems inevitably inclined toward higher standards in admission, as we have reported previously. Similarly, individual student and family aspirations cannot be expected to diminish. It is therefore incumbent upon institutional and governmental leaders to keep up with demand. In fact, it is our public mandate to keep pace with student expectations by creating opportunities and capacity in the most equitable way possible. Notable in 2006 07 Access and Equity Although the Supreme Court ended the federal judicial debate over the use of race as a factor in the admission decision in 2003, recent events in several states were indicative of the continuing relevance of race and ethnicity in admission to four-year colleges. Voters in Michigan approved a ballot initiative (Proposal Two) in November 2006 STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I iii
that ended the consideration of race, ethnicity or gender in undergraduate admission to public colleges. In February 2007, the University of Wisconsin s Board of Regents adopted a policy that directed state campuses to use a holistic approach to admission, including considering race and ethnicity as one among many factors in the admission decision. Meanwhile, Texas lawmakers continued to struggle with debate over the Top 10 Percent law which grants automatic admission to Texas public colleges as advocates argued about the degree of latitude provided to the universities in making admission decisions and the types of students included and excluded under the law. Chapter 1 of this report provides clear evidence that minority racial and ethnic groups continue to be underrepresented in four-year colleges and universities compared to their share of the collegeage population. Amid all of the self-interested behavior among colleges and universities, there is substantial effort aimed at righting this societal imbalance. As long as these statistics persist and as long as fundamental inequities exist in the system of K-12 education in the United States, many colleges will continue their attempts to ensure equitable access and representation on their campuses by way of admission practices. As NACAC s 2003 Diversity and College Admission report indicated, colleges efforts to improve the racial/ethnic composition of students on their campuses are focused largely on recruitment activities. Only one-third of colleges considered race or ethnicity as a factor in the actual admission decision. However, the ability to consider the entirety of a student s background including race or ethnicity remains an important, if infrequently used, tool in consideration of applications for admission. Financial Aid and Student Loans Paying for college is a primary concern for students and families in the college choice and application process. The college admission landscape was jolted by revelations of improper relationships between student loan companies and financial aid staff. An investigation into such practices prompted by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has initiated a chain of state and federal legislative events that will have ramifications well beyond 2007. NACAC and the Project on Student Debt have issued a supplement to this report based on data from the 2006 NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, Balancing Acts: How High School Counselors View Risks and Opportunities of Student Loans. 1 As the professionals most likely to provide financial aid information to students and families during the high school years, school counselors from nearly all backgrounds expressed the need for better information to properly equip families to make good decisions about borrowing for college. School counselors have, in past NACAC surveys, noted that they trusted college and university financial aid officers over all other sources for providing reliable information about paying for college. The loan scandals of 2007 will almost certainly challenge that trust, making it even more important to ensure that counselors are provided with unbiased, accurate information about financial aid, student loans and paying for college. As Chapter 5 notes, counselors must juggle the difficult task of advising students on college admission and financial aid with consistently high student-to-counselor caseloads and a myriad of duties, some unrelated to student services. Early Admission Policies Several institutions, including Harvard University (MA), Princeton University (NJ) and the University of Virginia, eliminated or scaled back early admission programs in 2006. As was the case in 2003 04, the movement of several 1 Available at www.nacacnet.org/memberportal/professionalresources/research. iv I STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07
institutions away from early admission policies did not trigger a landslide of similar moves among other institutions. Chapter 3 of this report provides data on the number of colleges and universities that offer early admission options for students, along with the percentage of students who are accepted through early admission programs. The Admission Industry The presence of an expanding industry of businesses related to college admission continues to challenge this association and its members and affiliates to ensure that the student interest in the admission process is not forgotten. Chapter 6 in this report presents data about the costs colleges incur to recruit students, but it may be beyond our reach at this point to measure a gross admission product the amount of products and services produced by the admission industry. The two major testing organizations, ACT and the College Board, announced good and bad news about scores the average ACT score for high school seniors in 2005 06 rose two-tenths of a point, while the average combined scores on the math and critical reading sections of the SAT fell by seven points for high school seniors in 2006. Chapter 4 in this report notes that standardized admission test scores continue to rank behind grades in college preparatory coursework and strength of curriculum in the list of factors important to college admission offices. The prominence of standardized testing in high school and the transition from high school to college supports a lucrative business for test preparation companies. The two largest test preparation companies in the United States generated nearly $1 billion in revenue in 2006 for supplemental education services 2 according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. While Education Secretary Margaret Spellings Commission on the Future of Higher Education bemoaned the lack of meaningful data about college quality in its 2006 report, counselors and admission officers continue to try to help students and families sort through the reams of data that are readily available through bookstores, libraries and Web sites. Association members concerned about college rankings have initiated conversations nationwide about the rankings implications and about their effects on college behavior. Perhaps an age-old quest for certainty in an uncertain world leads us to attempt to sort institutions by some criteria. NACAC and its members stress the importance of determining the right fit for students, because different students have different preferences, respond to different environments and stimuli and possess different qualities. Fit is particularly important considering that future success social, personal and financial depends not so much on where a student goes to college, but what he or she does while enrolled. 3 Other factors in the admission process, as outlined in Chapter 4, are the foci of similar, if smaller, industrial sectors essay coaching, college tour companies and independent consultants constitute viable business streams related to the admission process. As in any sector of the economy, there are stories of success, moderation and extremes. Ensuring that students who do not have the means to acquire additional services are not disadvantaged in the admission process remains the difficult task of college admission officers, many of whom have warned against the layers of insulation that excessive college coaching can impose upon students applying to college. Discipline and College Admission The admission community was already engaged in an extended conversation about the role of student discipline information in the college application 2 Revenues for supplemental education services included undergraduate and graduate test preparation, as well as professional training and tutoring. 3 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2000). College Quality and the Earnings of Recent College Graduates, NCES 2000 043, by Robert A. Fitzgerald. Washington, DC. STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I v
process prior to the tragedy at Virginia Tech (VA) in April 2007. This national tragedy has elevated and extended the conversation about how much colleges should know and what high schools are allowed to communicate about applicants during the admission process. In 2006, the Common Application announced the addition of new student discipline questions. 4 The resulting conversation among admission counseling professionals made clear that the debate over how much information colleges need and how much high schools are obligated to provide will continue. To that end, NACAC will conduct research among high schools and colleges in 2007 to determine what policies high schools currently maintain for the release of student discipline information and what disciplinary information colleges consider most important in the admission process. Results of that research will be reported in our 2008 State of College Admission report. Looking Ahead Will the national anxiety over college admission taper off in the future? There are two good reasons why we should expect to continue to deal with this national anxiety, and some reasons to hope that the circumstances may change. First, the admission process is a fixture on the American educational landscape. As such, it has its own legacy and mythology. It is also a process that is renewed and repeated annually. Each year, families go through this process some for the first time, others a second, third, or fourth time. Just like new parents, new family applicants bring a degree of anxiety into the equation. Extending the analogy, it seems logical that the level of anxiety surrounding college admission will persist, much as it does with first-time parents. But the good news, as with parenting, is that going through the process once makes it easier the next time. And as many families with small children do, repeat family applicants may take a more reasoned approach to the admission process the next time around. Second, scarcity of supply whether real or perceived always drives people to intensified behavior. The reality of increasing competition for spots at the nation s most selective institutions is likely to persist for the near future. Whether the angst created by that competition will continue to color the rest of the country s perception of college admission is perhaps an open question. It is possible, though, that a number of factors most prominent of which is the increasingly exclusive nature of the most selective colleges and the cost of attending those same colleges will drive more students and families to seek opportunities elsewhere. It may create a cascading effect, with more colleges reporting increasingly lower acceptance rates. But it will also invigorate a wide range of four-year campuses and may open families eyes to the array of opportunities that they might previously have ignored. Equipping our nation s college admission counselors, other educators, policymakers, students, and families with the tools they need to navigate the college admission process remains our greatest challenge. It is our hope, in a college admission environment wrought with self-interest, corporate inter-connectedness, and varied rules, forms and procedures, that this report, and this association, can provide a measure of transparency for those who need it. 4 The Common Application is a not-for-profit organization that provides an admission application online and in print that students may submit to any of its member institutions. Membership is limited to college and universities that evaluate students using a holistic admission process. vi I STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07
Table of Contents Executive Summary........................ 1 Introduction............................. 5 Chapter 1 High School Graduation and College Enrollment.. 7 Chapter 2 Applications to College..................... 15 Chapter 3 Admission Strategies....................... 23 Chapter 4 Factors in the Admission Decision............. 31 Chapter 5 School Counselors and College Counseling...... 45 Chapter 6 The College Admission Office................ 55
Executive Summary Highlights from the 2007 State of College Admission report include the following findings pertaining to the transition from high school to postsecondary education in the United States. High School Graduates/College Enrollments A population wave has fueled record numbers of high school graduates and students enrolled in postsecondary education. However, the proportion of high school graduates that directly enroll in college has not changed substantially in the last decade. Racial/ethnic minorities continue to be underrepresented among both high school graduates and college students. Continued Increase in Number of High School Graduates: In 2006-07, an estimated 3.2 million students graduated from high school in the United States. The number of high school graduates is expected to peak with a graduating class of 3.3 million in 2008-09, and is not expected to drop below current levels again until 2015-16. College Enrollment Continues at All-Time High: As of 2004, more than 17 million students were enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions. Total college enrollment is expected to continue increasing until at least 2015. Racial/Ethnic Enrollment Imbalance: White high school graduates have been consistently more likely to enroll directly in college in comparison to black and Hispanic students. Underrepresentation in postsecondary education was most pronounced at four-year colleges. In 2003, blacks and Hispanics constituted only 18 percent of students enrolled in four-year colleges, even though together they constituted 32 percent of the national college-aged population. Applications to College Applications to four-year colleges continued to increase, fueled by a combination of the population bulge, the ease of online applications and growth in the number of applications each student submits. Although the most highly selective colleges have become even more selective, four-year institutions nationwide accepted an average of seven out of every ten applicants who applied for admission. Applications Increase Again: For the second year in a row, approximately three-quarters of four-year colleges and universities reported an increase in the number of applications from the previous year. The number of applications that individual students submit also has continued to increase. Eighteen percent of Fall 2006 freshman had submitted seven or more applications for admission. Colleges Accept 69 Percent of Applicants: The average selectivity rate percentage of applicants who are offered admission at fouryear colleges and universities in the United States was 69 percent for Fall 2005. The average yield rate percentage of admitted students who enroll was 47 percent. Online Applications Increase: Colleges received 58 percent of all applications for Fall 2006 admission online. Eighty-nine percent of colleges reported an increase in the number of online applications submitted. STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I 1
Admission Strategies: Early Decision, Early Action, Wait Lists, and Priority Applications Though employed by a minority of institutions in the U.S., admission strategies like Early Decision, Early Action and wait lists are fixtures of the college admission landscape, likely due to the presence of such policies at America s most selective colleges and universities. Early Decision and Early Action Applications Up: For the second year in a row, a majority of institutions that offer Early Decision (ED) admission reported increases from the previous year in the number of ED applications 63 percent of institutions in 2006 and 58 percent in 2005. For the past two years, an even greater majority of colleges that offer Early Action (EA) admission have reported increases in EA applications from the previous year 70 percent in 2006 and 80 percent in 2005. Wait List Chances Slim: A student s likelihood of being admitted from the wait list was less than 1 in 3. On average, 29 percent of students who opted to remain on a wait list in 2006 were ultimately admitted, down from 35 percent in 2005. About one-third of colleges reported maintaining a wait list. Use of Priority Applications: For the first time in 2006, NACAC asked colleges to report on their use of priority applications, defined as an application process different from the traditional student-initiated application in which students are sent partially completed applications by mail or email. Only 12 percent of colleges reported using this type of application process. Factors in the Admission Decision Though there are few certainties in college admission, the factors that admission officers use to evaluate applications have remained remarkably consistent over the past 15 years. Students academic achievements which include grades, curricula and admission test scores constitute the most important factors in the admission decision. Beyond academic achievement, there are a host of factors both related to academic achievement (class rank, recommendations from teachers and counselors and the application essay) and unrelated (extracurricular activities and work) that provide depth to the student s academic record. Changes in admission officers estimation of the importance of the top factors in the admission process over the past 15 years reflect an admission system that, on average, has become more methodical, with an increased reliance on standardized admission test scores. However, variations among institutions make broad comparisons difficult to apply to all individual colleges and universities. For the first time in 2006, NACAC also asked colleges to indicate how various student characteristics may have influenced how the main factors in admission were evaluated. Student characteristics included race/ethnicity, gender, first-generation status, state or county of residence, and alumni relations. Although institutions attributed relatively little importance to these student characteristics in comparison to the main factors, results indicate that many colleges use student background information to put academic performance in context. Admission Offices Identify High School Curriculum, Test Scores and Grades as Top Factors: The top factors in the admission process were (in order): grades in college preparatory courses, strength of curriculum, standardized admission test scores, and overall high school grade point average. The application essay and class rank placed fifth and sixth, followed closely by counselor and teacher recommendations. 2 I STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07
Students Demonstrated Interest in Attending: Colleges considered a student s interest in attending the institution, if accepted, as one of the tip factors in the admission decision. While not a primary concern in evaluating applications, demonstrated interest does factor into admission officers decision-making. In addition, the percentage of colleges rating demonstrated interest as considerably important increased from seven to 21 percent over the last 4 years. Use of Class Rank in Admission: Around 80 percent of high schools in the United States indicated that they recognize individual students with the top numeric ranks, such as valedictorian and salutatorian. However, only 61 percent of high schools reported that they regularly provide a student s numeric rank to colleges. Public schools were seven times more likely than private schools to report that they regularly provide class rank to colleges (74 versus 10 percent). Student Background Information: About one-quarter of colleges rated race/ethnicity, firstgeneration status and high school attended as at least moderately important as contextual factors in evaluating the main admission factors. School Counselors and College Counseling Access to college information and counseling in school is a significant benefit to students in the college application process. For many students, particularly those in public schools, college counseling is limited at best. Counselors are few in number, stretched to the limit with student caseloads and limited in the amount of time they are able to dedicate to college counseling. Student to Counselor Ratio: According to data from the U.S. Department of Education, in 2004-05, the national public school student-to-counselor ratio was 466:1, including K-12 schools. NACAC survey data indicated an average high school student-to-counselor ratio, including parttime staff, of 295:1. Time Spent Counseling for College: On average, public school counselors spent 23 percent of their time on postsecondary counseling in 2006, while their private school counterparts spent 56 percent of their time on postsecondary counseling. College Counseling Staff: In 2006, only 10 percent of public schools reported employing at least one counselor (full- or part-time) whose exclusive responsibility was for college counseling, compared to 62 percent of private schools. Admission Office Budget and Staff College admission offices are comprised of individuals who have varied academic and professional backgrounds. Admission office requirements, expenditures and procedures vary based on the type of institution. Ratio of Applicants to Admission Officers: On average, the ratio of applications to admission officers at colleges and universities in the U.S. was 393:1 in 2006. The average ratio at public institutions was 741:1, compared to 279:1 at private institutions. Cost to Recruit: On average, colleges and universities spent about $614 to recruit each applicant for Fall 2006 admission, $880 to recruit each admitted student and $2,350 to recruit each enrolled student (when admission staff salaries and benefits were included in the admission office budget). Marketing and Admission: Marketing and public relations skills were rated second only to previous admission experience as very important qualifications for the position of chief enrollment officer. STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I 3
Introduction This report provides current and trend data on a number of factors related to college counseling in secondary schools, the activity of postsecondary admission offices and other issues of relevance to the transition from high school to college. Data included in the report come from four main sources: NACAC s annual Counseling Trends Survey NACAC s annual Admission Trends Survey Data provided to NACAC from the College Board s annual survey of colleges Publicly available data collected by the federal government, including data from the U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. Census Bureau. NACAC s Counseling Trends Survey The purpose of this survey is to collect information from secondary school counselors and counseling departments about their priorities and work responsibilities, particularly in relation to their roles in helping students get into college; their students academic options and experiences; and their practices in communicating with students, parents and colleges. Past surveys also have included special sections on a variety of topics, including professional development needs and opportunities, financial aid and parent involvement. In May 2006, NACAC distributed its annual Counseling Trends Survey to 10,000 high school guidance offices across the United States 1,552 NACAC member high schools (including private schools) and 8,448 nonmember public high schools. The nonmember public high schools were selected by random sample using a list of all public high schools from the U.S. Department of Education s Common Core of Data. A paper survey was mailed, but respondents also were given the option of completing an online version of the survey. NACAC received 1,508 responses to the survey a 15 percent response rate. Table 1 provides a comparison of the characteristics of NACAC Counseling Trends Survey respondents to those of all public and private secondary schools in the U.S. (For locale and percent eligible for free and reduced-price lunch, national data is for elementary and Table 1. NACAC 2006 Counseling Trends Survey respondent characteristics compared to national school characteristics NACAC private, nonparochial All private, nonparochial NACAC private, parochial All private, parochial schools NACAC respondents All schools NACAC public respondents All public schools respondents schools respondents Total 100% 100% 79.4% 89.1% 12.9% 3.4% 7.7% 7.5% Locale 1 Urban 20.5% 27.0% 12.1% 26.2% 47.4% 38.4% 62.3% 33.4% Suburban 29.6 34.5 28.7 33.9 32.6 41.2 32.5 36.3 Rural 49.9 38.5 59.2 39.9 20.0 20.4 5.3 30.3 Enrollment Mean enrollment 883 585 969 758 490 113 654 398 Free and reduced price lunch 2 Percent eligible 28.4 -- 33.7 36.3 3.4 -- 4.0 -- -- Data are not available. 1 National data are for elementary and secondary schools combined. For NACAC respondents, locale is defined according to the population of the city or town in which the school is located (rural = fewer than 25,000 people; suburban = 25,000 to 249,999 people; and urban = 250,000 or more people). For national data, locale is defined based on U.S. Department of Education community type classifications (rural = small town, rural, outside MSA, and rural, inside MSA (public) and rural/small town (private); suburban = urban fringe of large city, urban fringe of midsize city, and large town (public) and urban fringe/large town (private); and urban = large city and midsize city (public) and central city (private). 2 National data are for elementary and secondary schools combined. Survey respondents were asked to indicate participation in both federal and state-sponsored programs; national data is available for the federal program only. NOTE: For each column, data is for the most recent year available. All NACAC respondent data is for 2005-06. Data for all public schools is for 2003-04. Data for all private schools and for all schools is for 2001-02. SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2006; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Tables 5 and 57); Digest of Education Statistics, 2004 (Table 39); Public Elementary and Secondary Students, Staff, Schools, and School Districts: School Year 2003-04 (Tables 3, 8, and 9); Overview of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools and Districts: School Year 2001-02 (Table 8). STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I 5
secondary schools combined. Data were not available for a comparison to secondary schools only.) NACAC survey respondents were 79 percent public, 13 percent private, non-parochial and eight percent private, parochial, making the survey sample somewhat over-representative of private, non-parochial schools and underrepresentative of public schools. Table 1 also shows that public NACAC respondents were representative of all public schools in the percentage of students who were eligible for free or reduced-price lunch programs. Public NACAC respondents were disproportionately located in rural areas compared to all public schools. Private NACAC respondents, particularly parochial schools, were more likely to be located in urban areas in comparison to all private schools. NACAC respondent schools also reported larger enrollments on average than all secondary schools in the U.S. NACAC s Admission Trends Survey The purpose of this survey is to collect information from college admission offices about application volume; the use of various enrollment management strategies, including wait lists, Early Decision and Early Action; the importance of various factors in the admission decision; and admission office functions, staff, budget, and operations. In November 2006, NACAC distributed its annual Admission Trends Survey to all 2,213 four-year, not-for-profit, degree-granting, Title IV-participating institutions of postsecondary education in the United States and outlying areas. NACAC received 386 responses to the survey a response rate of 17 percent. Of these respondents, 28 percent were public and 72 percent were private, which is representative. Respondents also were largely representative by region, selectivity and yield; but, public respondents were larger on average (see Table 2). Table 2. NACAC 2006 Admission Trends Survey respondent characteristics compared to national college/university characteristics NACAC public respondents NACAC private respondents NACAC respondents All colleges All public colleges All private colleges Total 100% 100% 27.7% 29.4% 72.3% 70.6% Enrollment Mean enrollment 4,545 3,447 12,050 7,758 1,788 1,639 Region 1 New England 10.1% 8.8% 6.5% 7.0% 11.5% 9.5% Middle States 20.2 20.3 15.9 18.6 21.9 21.0 South 16.8 20.1 16.8 21.9 16.8 19.4 Midwest 33.4 27.9 36.4 24.3 32.3 29.4 Southwest 4.4 7.6 7.5 12.5 3.2 5.5 West 15.0 15.2 16.8 15.6 14.3 15.0 Selectivity and yield Mean selectivity 69.1% 69.0% 70.9% 70.3% 68.6% 68.4% Mean yield 41.3 46.9 44.9 47.6 40.0 46.6 1 New England includes Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Middle States includes New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia. South includes Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Arkansas. Midwest includes Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. Southwest includes Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. West includes Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. NOTE: Enrollment data for all national colleges are Fall 2004 full-time enrollment; all other data are for 2005-06. SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2006; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. IPEDS Peer Analysis System, 2004-05 and 2005-06 (includes four-year, not-for-profit, degree-granting, Title IV-participating institutions). 6 I STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07
Chapter 1. High School Graduation and College Enrollment Contents High School Completion The Transition from High School to College College Enrollment
Getting more students through the transition from high school graduation to college enrollment is critical for both individual students and society as a whole. High school graduation is a necessary first step to economic success, but postsecondary education is becoming increasingly important. During 2005, adults with a high school diploma earned an average of only $29,448. Bachelor s degree recipients earned $54,689, on average, and those with master s, professional or doctoral degrees earned $79,946. 1 Over a 40-year working life, a college graduate can expect to earn almost 75 percent more than a high school graduate. Other factors that have been shown to be associated with increased levels of education include: lower levels of unemployment, poverty and incarceration; more positive perceptions of personal health and lower smoking rates; and higher levels of civic engagement, including volunteering and voting. 2 High School Completion Increase in High School Graduates The number of high school graduates nationally has continued to climb from a low of 2.5 million in 1995-96 to an estimated 3.2 million for 2006 07. The number is projected to peak with a graduating class of 3.3 million in 2008 09, but is not expected to drop below current levels again until 2015 16. This pattern of change in the number of high school graduates illustrated in Figure 1 reflects overall changes in the high-school aged population, Figure 1. Number of high school graduates, actual and projected: 1970-71 to 2015-16 4,000 3,500 Number of students (thousands) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1970-71 1973-74 1976-77 1979-80 1982-83 1985-86 1988-89 1991 92 1994 95 1997 98 2000 01 2003 04 2006 07 2009 10 2012 13 2015 16 Total Public Private SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Projections of Education Statistics to 2015 (Table 24) and Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Table 101), Washington, DC. 1 U.S. Census Bureau. (2006). Educational Attainment in the United States: 2006 (Table 9). Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/education/cps2006.html. 2 Baum, S. and Payea, K. (2005). Education Pays 2004: Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and Society, Revised Edition. College Board, Washington, DC. STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I
rather than increases in the percentage of students who are graduating from college. As shown in Figure 2, high school completion rates have increased very little in this 35-year time period. Despite an overall increasing trend at the national level, there is wide variation by state and region. Between 2002 03 and 2014 15, high school graduates are expected to increase by six percent nationally. However, some states will experience much higher rates of increase, including Arizona (72 percent) and Nevada (68 percent); and others will experience substantial decreases, including North Dakota (28 percent), and Wyoming and Vermont (22 percent, each). Overall, increases will be seen in the West and South, and decreases will be seen in the Northeast and Midwest. 3 High School Completion Rates 4 by Race/Ethnicity, Income and Gender There are important variations in the rates at which different groups complete high school, which ultimately result in certain groups being underrepresented among college students. For example, in 2004, 92 percent of white 18 to 24 year olds completed high school, compared to 83 percent of black and 70 percent of Hispanic youth (see Figure 2). Over the past 35 years, there has been very little change in these gaps in high school completion among racial/ethnic groups. As shown in Figure 2, the gap between black and white students narrowed between the early 1970s and early 1980s, but has since persisted. The gap between white and Hispanic students has decreased only eight percentage points since 1972. Important differences also exist among students from different income backgrounds. In 2005, the average high school graduation rate amongst the top quartile of dependent 18- to 24-year-olds was 93 percent. Students in the third quartile fared nearly as well at 89 percent, followed by 83 percent Figure 2. High school completion rates of 18- to 24-year-olds by race/ethnicity: 1972 to 2004 High school completion rate (%) 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 October of each year 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Total White, non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic Hispanic NOTE: These are status completion rates, which measure the percentage of 18 to 24 year olds who are not enrolled in high school and who also hold a high school diploma or equivalent credential, such as a GED. Those still enrolled in high school are excluded from the analysis. SOURCE: Laird, J., DeBell, M., and Chapman, C. (2006). Dropout Rates in the United States: 2004 (NCES 2007-024). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. 3 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2005). Projections of Education Statistics to 2015. Washington, DC. 4 High school completers include both diploma and GED recipients. 10 I STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07
for the second quartile. However, the average graduation rate for students in the bottom quartile was only 69 percent 24 percentage points below that of students with the highest family incomes. Moreover, this gap has decreased only seven percentage points since 1970. 5 Since 1976, there also has been a gap in the high school completion rates of men and women, which had increased to a small but important difference of four percentage points in 2004 (see Figure 3). The Transition from High School to College High school completion rate (%) Figure 3. High school completion rates of 18- to 24-yearolds by gender: 1972 to 2004 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 October of each year Total Males Females 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 NOTE: These are status completion rates, which measure the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds who are not enrolled in high school and who also hold a high school diploma or equivalent credential, such as a GED. Those still enrolled in high school are excluded from the analysis. SOURCE: Laird, J., DeBell, M., and Chapman, C. (2006). Dropout Rates in the United States: 2004 (NCES 2007-024). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. College Enrollment Rates of High School Completers From the early 1970s to late 1990s, the percentage of high school completers who go on to college fluctuated but also showed an overall pattern of increase, peaking at 67 percent in 1997. Since 1997, the percentage decreased slightly to a low of 62 percent in 2001 and then returned to 67 percent in 2004 (see Figure 4). Additional data will be needed to determine whether this is a temporary dip or a more long-term plateau in college-going rates. College enrollment rate (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1972 Figure 4. College enrollment rates of recent high school completers by race/ethnicity: 1972 to 2004 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 October of each year Total White, non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic Hispanic 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 NOTE: Enrollment in college as of October of each year for individuals ages 16 to 24 who completed high school during the preceding 12 months. High school completers include both diploma and GED recipients. Data for Hispanics are three-year moving averages to compensate for relatively large sampling errors caused by small sample size. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Table 181). Washington, D.C. 5 Mortenson, T. (2006). Family Income and Higher Education Opportunity, 1970 to 2005. Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Number 174, December. STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I 11
College Enrollment Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Income, Gender, and High School Characteristics As with high school completion, there are persistent gaps in rates of transition from high school completion to postsecondary enrollment among different groups of students, including both racial/ethnic and income groups. As shown in Figure 4, both black and Hispanic students who have completed high school have been consistently less likely than white students to enroll in college. Even more dramatic differences are seen among high school completers of different income backgrounds (see Figure 5). 6 Results of NACAC s Counseling Trends Survey provide further evidence of this pattern. Counselors at schools with the highest percentages of students eligible for free or reduced-price lunch (FRPL) a proxy for family income reported much lower college enrollment rates for their graduates. 7 In fact, there was a difference of 31 percentage points between schools with more than 75 percent eligible for FRPL and schools with 25 percent or fewer eligible (see Table 3). College enrollment rate (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Figure 5. College enrollment rates of recent high school completers by family income: 2004 34.7 47.9 52.2 41.6 58.2 59.3 67.5 75.4 LT 10 10-15 15-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-75 75-100 Family Income ($000) 86.8 100-150 83.8 GT 150 NOTE: Enrollment in college as of October of each year for individuals ages 16 to 24 who completed high school during the preceding 12 months. High school completers include both diploma and GED recipients. SOURCE: Mortenson, T. (2006). College Continuation Rates by Family Income for Recent High School Graduates, 1987 to 2004. Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Number 168, June. College enrollment rate (%) 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 Figure 6. College enrollment rates of high school completers by gender: 1972 to 2004 Total Males Females Gender differences in transition rates also have emerged since the late 1980s. In every year except 1995, women have enrolled in college at higher rates than men. In 2004 the most recent year for which data are available women enrolled at a rate 10 percentage points higher than men (see Figure 6). 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 October of each year NOTE: Enrollment in college as of October of each year for individuals ages 16 to 24 who completed high school during the preceding 12 months. High school completers include both diploma and GED recipients. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Table 182). Washington, D.C. 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 6 Mortenson, T. (2006). College Continuation Rates by Family Income for Recent High School Graduates, 1987 to 2004. Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Number 168, June. 7 Correlation between percent eligible for FRPL and total college attendance rate = -.517, p <.01 12 I STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07
Table 3. Mean college enrollment rates of high school graduates at Counseling Trends Survey respondent schools: 2006 Four-year institutions Two-year institutions Total 56.4% 25.0% Control Public 46.1 28.1 Private 94.0 7.0 Private non-parochial 95.5 5.1 Private parochial 91.6 9.3 Population of city/town Fewer than 25,000 people 47.1 27.1 25,000 to 249,999 59.9 24.9 250,000 or more 74.1 18.6 Enrollment Fewer than 500 students 55.1 25.7 500 to 999 60.3 22.3 1,000 to 1,499 57.2 23.9 1,500 to 1,999 55.1 26.3 2,000 or more 50.9 30.7 Free and reduced price lunch 0 to 25% of students eligible 67.8 21.1 26 to 50% 41.7 30.2 51 to 75% 30.4 31.0 76 to 100% 25.8 32.3 Student-to-counselor ratio 100:1 or fewer 70.3 21.3 101:1 to 200:1 70.3 19.3 201:1 to 300:1 57.6 23.5 301:1 to 400:1 51.3 26.5 401:1 to 500:1 44.6 30.8 More than 500:1 46.2 32.1 SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2006. Number of students (thousands) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Figure 7. Enrollment and projected enrollment in degreegranting postsecondary institutions by control: 1970 to 2015 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Fall of each year 1994 1996 1996 1998 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Total Public Private SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Projections of Education Statistics to 2015 and Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Table 171). Washington, DC.. Results of NACAC s Counseling Trends Survey also showed that students who graduated from private high schools were much more likely to enroll in postsecondary education immediately after high school than students from public high schools. 8 In addition, graduates of high schools in rural areas those located in towns with fewer than 25,000 people were less likely to enroll in college compared to those in more suburban and urban areas (see Table 3). College Enrollment In 2004 the most recent year for which data are available 17.3 million students were enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions. Of that total, 13 million (75 percent) were enrolled in public institutions; 10.7 million (62 percent) were enrolled in four-year institutions. 9 Due to changes in both the number of high school graduates and the rate at which they enroll in college, the total number of students enrolled in postsecondary education has increased steadily over the past 35 years. Most of that growth has been at public institutions. The total number of college students is expected to continue increasing at least through 2015 (see Figure 7). Total enrollment increased 25 percent from 1990 to 2004 and is projected to increase an additional 15 percent between 2004 and 2015. 10 8 Correlation between private high school status and total college attendance rate =.404, p <.01 9 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Table 171). Washington, DC. 10 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2005). Projections of Education Statistics to 2015. Washington, DC. STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07 I 13
College Enrollment by Race/ Ethnicity, Income and Gender Underrepresentation of certain groups in postsecondary education is a direct consequence of the different rates of high school completion and transition to college discussed earlier in the chapter. Although minority enrollment in postsecondary education has become slightly more reflective of the national population, minorities are still underrepresented. In 2003, black and Hispanic persons constituted approximately 32 percent of the traditional college-aged population, but they represented only about 22 percent of students enrolled in postsecondary education. Hispanics were particularly underrepresented among private, notfor-profit and four-year institutions (see Table 4). Students from low-income families also are underrepresented in postsecondary education. In 2004, about 39 percent of all 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college, compared to only 25 percent of those from lowincome families. In addition, more women than men have been enrolled in college for over 25 years, and Department of Education projections indicate that this gender gap will continue to widen until at least 2015 (see Figure 8). Table 4. White, black and Hispanic enrollment in postsecondary education in comparison with age 18 to 24 population share: 2003 White, non- Black, non- Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Percent of population age 18 to 24 61.7% 14.7% 17.4% Percent of racial/ethnic group enrolled in postsecondary education Total 67.2 11.8 10.0 Control Public 66.4 11.9 11.0 Private, not-for-profit 70.7 11.4 6.1 Type Four-year 69.8 11.0 7.3 Two-year 63.1 13.1 14.3 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Table 207); U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, July 1, 2003. Number of students (thousands) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Figure 8. Enrollment and projected enrollment in postsecondary institutions by gender: 1970 to 2015 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Fall of each year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Males Females SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Projections of Education Statistics to 2015 and Digest of Education Statistics, 2005 (Table 172). Washington, DC. 11 Mortenson, T. (2007). College Participation Rates for Students from Low Income Families by State, 1992-93 to 2004-05. Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Number 176, February. 14 I STATE OF COLLEGE ADMIS SION 20 07
Chapter 2. Applications to College Contents Application Change Over Time Selectivity and Yield The Admission Interface How Colleges Notify Students of the Admission Decision Cost of Applying to College Gender Trends in College Applications