U.S.A. and China Solar PV Market
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1 U.S.A. and China Solar PV Market & PPA Solar Project Development Kevin Gao VP, CA Solar LLC
2 Table of Content Solar Panel Pricing & Cost Trend USA Solar Market China Solar Market and China s investment in solar energy CA Solar s Project Development Business Kevin Gao, CA Solar LLC CONFIDENTIAL Tel: ; [email protected]
3 Solar PV Module Price Trend
4 Crystalline PV Panel Pricing Trend 3.5 China Solar Panel Pricing Trend ($/watt) $/W Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11* Price has dropped 47% from a year ago, to just under $1.00/watt (FOB china) in Q4 11 China will continue to set crystalline solar panels pricing trend in coming quarters CA Solar Proprietary, [email protected], Tel:
5 China Solar Panel Cost Breakdown PV Module Cost Stackup ($) a year ago, and now bos Cell Oct 2010 Oct 2011 bos: glass, frame, EVA backsheet, junction box, wire, labor,.. Panel Manufacturers gross margin: <10% CA Solar Proprietary, [email protected], Tel:
6 USA Solar Market & Forecast
7 USA Solar PV Market Source: SEIA, GTM Research World Solar Installation in 2010: 18.2GW USA Solar PV market in 2010: between ~950MW
8 FIT reduction in Europe Solar project Net Present Value (NPV) in US could exceed in Europe Europe is becoming more saturated market CA Solar Proprietary, Tel:
9 U.S.A. Solar Project Pipeline Source: PV Insider 25GW Pipeline
10 U.S.A. Solar Project Pipeline Total 25GW
11 Driving Force for Solar Adoption
12 USA Solar Manufacturing & Value Chain USA Solar Cell & Module Manufacturing Solar System Value Chain
13 China s investment in renewable Energy
14 China s Record Foreign Currency Reserve $3.2 Trillion dollars - China s new record of foreign currency reserve. Equal to GDP of Italy - the 7 th largest economy Continue add $100 billion more per quarter Equal to Norway s GDP Over $1 trillion in US treasury
15 China s Electricity Demand China demand for electricity is quickly approaching to the level of USA China plan to double its renewable energy production in next 5 years.
16 China began direct solar farm investment China s Solar PV industry value chain Silicon Ingots Wafer Solar Modules Import System Solar Farm Cell Distribution Integration Over Investment Under Investment China invested $ billions in solar energy product manufacturing Polysilicon, wafer, cell, module China s central bank and China Development Bank are taking more measures to encourage businesses to invest aboard Suntech, Yingli, GCL. CA Solar Proprietary, [email protected], Tel:
17 China s investment in PV, Market Forecast China has invested ten s billions $ in solar manufacturing China s NDRC announced national FIT in July: RMB 1/kwh (~$0.16/kwh) Many province has additional incentives: Jiangsu province: RMB 0.4/kwh (~$0.06/kwh) Total maybe as high as $0.22/kwh National FIT jump started domestic market PV project pipeline already top 25GW in China International developers are getting into China: First solar, Enfinity,
18 China Solar Irradiation Map
19 Manufacturers are moving downstream GCL Solar: A poly silicon manufacturer in China, started direct investment in solar farm in USA. Built 6MW of solar project in USA in Wells Fargo committed $100M fund to GCL for further solar farm investment. Stock price of GCL (listed in Hong Kong) has increased over 200% since June Market cap increased over $5 billions. CA Solar Proprietary, [email protected], Tel:
20 Solar Project Development Business
21 3MW School Solar Project Example PPA Highlights: 25 years PPA with starting rate:$0.16/kwh Escalator:3.75% yoy PBI rebate: $0.05/kWh for 5 yrs. Size:3MW, 15 sites, average system size KW/sites; Each system will be tied to grid behind the meter upon project completion on each site. IRR: 9% Location: in San Jose; Utility district: PG&E. Net metering. PPA Customer: San Jose Public School - high credit rating MIG-1; $28M balance sheet. Annual electricity budget about $1M. School would like to buy system after 6 years. Technology:PV; Ground mount, Roof-top, and car ports. PV watts solar production estimate: 1490 hours per year Total capital investment: approx. $13.5M Developer: CA Solar LLC & partners. Status: PPA & site lease Signed Investment LOI signed In detailed system design phase Expect to start construction after Q1 12 CA Solar Proprietary, [email protected], Tel:
22 Maryland 4.6MW Solar Farm Project Project Size:4.6MW Location: Maryland Somerset Solar System: ground mount, single axis tracker Annual production: 7,790 Mwh PPA price: $0.085/kwh, 20 yr term SREC: $0.28/kwh, total 5 yrs Off taker: energy company Cost of System: $19M Substation Federal ITC grant: 30% Total investment after grant: $13.4M 1 st yr production income: $2.8M IRR = 13% Current Status: PPA+SREC: signed Site control: signed Interconnect: July 2011 Estimated construction start: Dec 2011 CA Solar Confidential
23 Texas 100MW Solar Farm Project Project Size:100MW Location: Del Rio, TX Solar System: ground mount, single axis tracker Annual production: 202,000 Mwh PPA price: ~$0.12/kwh, 20 yr term Off taker: utility company Cost of System: $310M Federal ITC grant: 30% Total investment after grant: $217M 1 st yr production income: $24.3M IRR = 11% Current Status: Site control: signed Interconnect: done PPA: in negotiation Estimated construction start: Q CA Solar Confidential
24 Project Cost & Cash Flow Proforma CA Solar Proprietary, Tel:
25 Project Development Model 1. Develop full docs, and then sell project 2. Raise bridge financing, built it, and then sell project 3. Raise debt financing and equity investor, do O&M CA Solar Proprietary, Tel:
26 THANK YOU! Kevin Gao Found & VP, CA Solar LLC Tel:
27 California Solar System Cost Trend California Solar PV System Cost* Trend $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 Per Watt $7.00 Residential Commercial $6.00 $5.00 $ * $ Price/Watt DC * All in cost. Based on CSI data System price drop gradually. Soft cost reduction not at optimal rate yet. May not reflect most aggressive true cost due to ITC grant. Utility scale system cost in $4/watt CA Solar Proprietary, [email protected], Tel:
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