Orange County. Benchmarking & Target Industry Analysis. Spotlight on a Changing Region

Transcription

1 Orange County Cover photos courtesy of Visit French Lick West Baden Benchmarking & Target Industry Analysis Spotlight on a Changing Region A Report Prepared for the Orange County Economic Development Partnership Research conducted by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business, Indiana University & Strategic Development Group, Inc.

2 Orange County Benchmarking and Target Industry Analysis Spotlight on a Changing Region SEPTEMBER 2011 PREPARED FOR Orange County Economic Development Partnership RESEARCH CONDUCTED BY Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University Strategic Development Group, Inc. WITH THE SUPPORT OF Orange County Development Commission Orange County REMC Duke Energy Springs Valley Bank & Trust Co. OCEDP

3 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 2 INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY... 5 Selection of Peer Counties... 5 POPULATION AND KEY DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS... 8 OC and Its Peers: Population EDUCATION AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OC and Its Peers: Education INDUSTRY MIX BY EMPLOYMENT AND OCCUPATION OC and Its Peers: Employment Trends and GDP INCOME AND WAGES Orange County and Its Peers: Income COMMUTING PATTERNS OC and Its Peers: Gross Earnings Flows INNOVATION OC and Its Peers: Innovation HOUSING OC and Its Peers: Housing ECONOMIC DISTRESS OC and Its Peers: Distress Indicators COMPARING ORANGE COUNTY AGAINST OTHER CASINO RESORT COUNTIES TARGET INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Employment Base Strengths and Weaknesses for New Employer Recruitment Recommended Approach to New Employer Recruitment Recommended Sectors to Target Summary CONCLUSION APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGIES Housing Affordability Index Methodology Innovation Index Overview APPENDIX B: SUPPLEMENTAL DATA APPENDIX C: SUMMARY OF 7/21/2011 EMPLOYER FOCUS GROUP Q & A

4 Executive Summary Nestled in south central Indiana, Orange County is a rural county filled with lots of natural scenery, historical buildings, and the French Lick and West Baden Springs Hotels. Early in the 19 th century, settlers fled Orange County, NC, and its institution of slavery, thus forming the beginnings of Orange County, IN. Covering 400 square miles, the population density remains low at 50 people per square mile. The population has gradually grown to 19,840 residents in 2010, and the county is not expected to have a population boom in the near future. This study follows by five years the last major benchmarking analysis of Orange County s economy. In the interim, the county has experienced major improvements to the French Lick Resort, the West Baden Springs Hotel and numerous other businesses marking a significant resurgence in the Valley area. Table 1 presents the primary indicators used in both the current and previous benchmark studies, noting changes over the past decade and since the last report. Employment, GDP, average wage, per capita personal income and the number of Orange County residents working within the county have increased all positive indicators. Unfortunately, the Great Recession (December 2007 June 2009) likely contributed substantially to increased rates of unemployment and poverty. Table 1: Orange County Scorecard of Indicators Indicator Population Educational Attainment H.S. Graduate Intent to Pursue Higher Education Total Employment GDP Average Wage Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) Outgoing commuters Number of Orange County residents with jobs in Orange County Median Home Value Unemployment Rate Poverty Rate Past Decade Since 2006 Report * Increased Decreased Little or No Change * The data used in the 2006 and 2011 reports represent various years depending on the source. Source: IBRC 2

5 The IBRC research team conducted a focus group with local community leaders, and the general consensus was that improvements had been made in the past five years, but there is room for further improvement. Despite the recent boost in tourism and its long history in the Valley area, it is believed that the local tourism industry is still in its infancy stage. Therefore, a significant portion of the economic development focus has been centered on businesses that would complement the existing tourism economy. To meet this goal, it would be beneficial for the current workforce to be trained in hospitality and tourism management especially for middle management positions and future executives so existing companies can hire from within the region. Overall, the chief challenge is improving the county s educational attainment levels. While much attention has been given to tourism growth in the county, manufacturing is still a large player in the county. Despite the industry s declining employment, employers cite the need for skilled workers with the desire to be in manufacturing and other skilled labor positions. Transportation and logistics challenges also exist for manufacturing companies due to the rustic transportation routes around Orange County. Overall, the chief challenge is improving the county s educational attainment levels. Over the past 10 years, there has been very little change in educational attainment relative to Orange County s peers. The community has more high school graduates pursuing postsecondary degrees, but they are not returning to the area. Not only does the county need to help adult workers increase their education and skills, it also needs to entice Orange County natives to return after obtaining additional education. Local high schools have increased their partnerships with area businesses to provide preliminary education and training courses; however, the county would likely benefit greatly from a partnership with Ivy Tech to provide classes for the local workforce. Relative to its peers, Orange County remains in the middle of the pack on a number of indicators, indicating that it is neither falling behind nor surpassing its peers. Orange County stood out in its employment growth within the past decade giving it the peer group s largest share of employment in leisure and hospitality. The mix of small and large businesses in the county helped make Orange County the fifth most innovative county and likely contributed its fourth strongest GDP growth rate. In regard to housing, Orange County has the most affordable housing market among its peers despite not having the lowest median home value. This report concludes with a target industry analysis conducted by Strategic Development Group (SDG), Inc., offering guidance regarding sectors that ought to be pursued. Focusing on accommodation and 3

6 food services growth and the existing manufacturing strength, SDG recommends the following industries to target: Amusement and Theme Parks Continuing Care Retirement Communities Frozen Specialty Food Manufacturing Manufacturing Canned Specialty Foods Concrete Pipe Manufacturing Other Structural Clay Product Manufacturing Telemarketing Bureaus and Other Contact Centers Animal Food Manufacturing Plastics Packaging Materials and Unlaminated Film and Sheet Manufacturing Compared to five years ago, community leaders feel that progress has been made which is confirmed by this report. While challenges still exist, the county has the ability to re invent itself which will require strategic planning for the future and the need to enlist the support of Orange County residents. 4

7 Introduction to the Study In the fall of 2005, the Orange County Economic Development Partnership (OCEDP) asked the Indiana Business Research Center (IBRC) at Indiana University s Kelley School of Business to study the Orange County economy, benchmark its performance against comparable counties and conduct a targeted industry analysis to determine which industries the OCEDP could consider targeting in its development efforts. Since that study s 2006 release, Orange County has undergone several major changes including the reopening of the French Lick Hotel and Casino as well as the West Baden Springs Hotel. Subsequently, the OCEDP requested another study to benchmark its performance against comparable counties and insights on industries that it could target for economic development. By comparing Orange County to its peers, its relative strengths and weaknesses may be reviewed by local citizens, planners and community leaders, business employees and organizations considering where to locate or expand their operations. Moreover, by conducting such studies regularly over time, a community can establish a basis for tracking its progress toward desired goals and for understanding fundamental trends affecting its competitive positioning. This report begins with a summary of how the peer counties were selected, followed by detailed analysis of eight economic categories and the county s performance relative to its peers and other rural casino resort counties. These analyses are based on predominantly public data available for all the peer counties, with additional perspective obtained via a focus group of several local community leaders. The report concludes with discussion of potential growth industries that Orange County s economic development efforts could target. Selection of Peer Counties The IBRC selected 10 peer counties based on similarities to Orange County in the year 2000 (see Figure 1). This retroactive approach benchmarks Orange Countyʹs socioeconomic trends against communities it was similar to recently but which may now be on divergent paths. Identifying those communities that have prospered the most since 2000 may spur subsequent research to determine why some communities have outperformed Orange County. 5

8 Figure 1: Orange County Peers The IBRC used three steps to develop this peer set: 1. The Census Bureau s set of 3,144 counties was limited to the 518 counties whose population ranged from 15,000 to 25,000 residents. Analysts chose this population threshold to stay about 5,000 above and below Orange County s 2000 population (19,306 residents). 2. The remaining counties were then compared to Orange County by their 2000 values for the following indicators: Per capita personal income (PCPI) Percent of total employment in manufacturing Percent of total employment in trade and transportation Percent of total employment in professional services Percent of total employment in financial activities. Each county s value in the given indicators were divided by Orange Countyʹs value for that same indicator in order to determine which county s values were closest to Orange County s. To standardize these values, the absolute value of each county s mark minus one (one represents Orange County) was calculated. Finally, a composite score was created by summing the countyʹs absolute values for each indicator. The lower the composite score, the more similar the county is to Orange County with regard to these indicators. To narrow down the list, IBRC focused on the 100 lowest scores and relied on judgment to arrive at the final peer set of 10 counties. The most 6

9 common reason for a county with a low score to not be included was that its percent share of manufacturing diverged too much from Orange County. Other reasons for excluding a county: natural amenity advantages (e.g., located on or near coastline); per capita personal income less than $28,000; excessive population loss (greater than 5 percent); and being part of a micropolitan or metropolitan statistical area. 3. The IBRC team then consulted with OCEDP and it was determined that at least two counties from the 2006 report should be included in the 2011 peer set to allow continuity between the two benchmarking reports. Additionally, the 2011 report includes a brief comparison of Orange County against seven other rural casino resort counties throughout the nation. Interestingly, one county Mille Lacs, MN, was included in both peer sets. 7

10 Population and Key Demographic Characteristics Orange County has gained approximately 530 new residents in the past decade, an increase of 2.8 percent. The three towns in the region each recorded population declines while the unincorporated regions of the county grew 9.5 percent. The population increase has occurred throughout the county with the most growth in Greenfield, Jackson and Paoli townships (see Figure 2and Table 2). The population increase in Greenfield and Jackson townships has been dramatic roughly 30 percent since Speculation by local leaders as to why the county is growing in its outlying townships rather than within the towns included residents desires to live near, but not within, town limits due to wanting more property, lower property values (hence lower taxes) and the lack of attractive building opportunities within town limits. Figure 2: Orange County Townships Source: IBRC Table 2: Population of Orange County Townships, Towns and Unincorporated Areas, 2000 and 2010 Change 2000 to Census Counts Number Percent Orange County 19,306 19, % French Lick Township 4,767 4, % French Lick Town 1,941 1, % West Baden Springs Town % Balance of French Lick Township 2,208 2, % 8

11 Change 2000 to Census Counts Number Percent Greenfield Township % Jackson Township % Northeast Township % Northwest Township % Orangeville Township % Orleans Township 3,508 3, % Orleans Town 2,273 2, % Balance of Orleans Township 1,235 1, % Paoli Township 5,890 6, % Paoli Town 3,844 3, % Balance of Paoli Township 2,046 2, % Southeast Township 1,544 1, % Stampers Creek Township % Source: U.S. Census Bureau Compared to the nation and state, Orange County s population growth has lagged in both the and the timeframes (see Figure 3). Nationally, the past decade yielded a nearly 10 percent growth in population, but Orange County saw only a 2.8 percent increase. The state s growth over the past decade was at a much slower pace than its 17 percent growth between 1990 and The state s earlier population surge was also reflected in Orange County as it had nearly an 8 percent growth in its population in Figure 3: Population Growth of U.S., Indiana and Orange County, to to % 16% 16.9% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 7.8% 9.7% 6.6% 7.8% 4% 2% 0% 2.8% United States Indiana Orange County Source: U.S. Census Bureau 9

12 Figure 4 shows the components of population change in Orange County across the past decade. Between 2003 and 2008, net migration had the most effect on population change. Net migration includes both domestic and international migration into the county, but it is predominantly domestic migration that drives the change. Of particular interest is the change in population in 2006 and 2007 as the French Lick Springs Hotel was closed most of 2006 and the West Baden Springs Hotel reopened again in May The impact of these closures/reopening can be seen by the migration decline (individuals leaving the county) in 2006 and a subsequent uptick in Similarly, the population was also boosted by an increase of births in 2006 and Since the reopening of the hotels, Orange County saw a decrease in net migration in 2008 (likely due to the recession) and a slight growth in 2009 due to an increase in births. Figure 4: Components of Population Change, Orange County, 2000 to 2009 Total Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Source: IBRC calculations based on the U.S. Census Bureau s annual population estimates and the 2000 and 2010 decennial census counts When looking at median age, Orange County s residents have historically been older than the state and that trend has continued. The county s median age increased from 37.6 years in 2000 to 40.8 years in This compares to a 2010 median age of 37.2 years for the U.S. and 37 years for Indiana. As shown in Figure 5, 44 percent of Orange County s population is 45 or older. On the other end of the spectrum, 27 percent of the population is preschool or school age (less than 20 years old). That leaves 29 percent of the population between the ages of 20 and 44. By 2020, it is projected that 45 percent of the population will be 45 and older, 25 percent will be preschool or school age, and 30 percent will be in the 20 to 44 age group. The largest growth is expected to occur in the 65 and older age group, which will increase 23 percent to comprise 19 percent of the population. 10

13 Figure 5: Population Distribution in Orange County, % 6% 21% Preschool (0-4 years) School Age (5 to 19 years) College Age (20 to 24 years) 28% 5% Young Adult (25 to 44 years) Older Adult (45 to 64 years) 24% Older (65 plus years) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Overall, Orange County is not anticipated to have a major bump in total population in the near future, but it should slowly grow at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent (see Figure 6). Figure 6: Projected Population, ,200 21,000 20,800 20,600 20,400 20,200 20,000 19,800 19,600 19,400 19,200 19, Note: Projections are based on the 2005 population estimates. Source: IBRC, using U.S. Census data The majority of Orange County is white (97 percent), with the second largest racial group being black or African American (0.9 percent). Another 1.2 percent of the population declared two or more races, with half of those identifying themselves as white and American Indian/Alaska Native. The lack of diversity in Orange County is common among the more rural counties in the state. However, in the past decade the county has seen a 47 percent increase in its minority population. 11

14 OC and Its Peers: Population Relative to its peers, Orange County has one of the smaller populations and was in the middle of the pack regarding its average annual population growth (see Figure 7). Mille Lacs, MN, and Adams, WA, had the highest average annual population growth rates in the past decade at 1.7 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. On the other end of the spectrum, Cherokee, KS, was the only peer county to post a population loss ( 0.6 percent annually) and Lavaca, TX, did not grow at all in the past decade. Figure 7: Population and Rate of Growth, National Peers, Population (left axis) Rate of Change (right axis) 2010 Population 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, , % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Averge Annual Rate of Change, 2000 to 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 12

15 Education and Educational Attainment Orange County has three school corporations serving about 3,400 students via three elementary schools and three junior/senior high schools. The Paoli Community School Corporation serves the most students, with roughly 1,600 students in the school year. Over the past five years, community leaders have seen improvements made to their schools, attributed largely to the casino funds allocated to each school in the county. Currently each student in the county receives free textbooks and the additional funds have allowed schools to invest in building projects, additional professional development for teachers and technology tools to further enhance the teaching environment for students. Recently, the schools have seen improved test scores, with Springs Valley performing above the state average; community leaders attribute this to the use of new technology tools. The local high schools also offer $1,000 scholarships to graduating seniors who are pursuing postsecondary education via a program initiated in Graduation rates are an important indicator of school success. Over the past three years, all local school corporations have seen an increase in graduation rates. For the academic year, the Paoli and Orleans school corporation graduation rates exceeded the state average of 84.1 percent, and Springs Valley School Corporation was not far behind at 80.6 percent. Over the past three years, all local school corporations have seen increased graduation rates. More than half of the 2010 graduating class intended to pursue college education (60.8 percent). 1 However, community leaders note that very few postsecondary graduates return to Orange County, likely due to the lack of job opportunities in the area. Since 2000, the proportion of residents with a high school diploma or less has declined only slightly. Focus group participants speculated that the brain drain from the county may be reaching a turning point, noting that more college students seem to have returned to the county in recent years. For the majority of Orange County residents, a high school diploma or less is the highest education attained (69.1 percent), far exceeding state and national levels (see Figure 8). Consequently, Orange County s proportion of individuals with at least some college is well below the state and national averages. 1 The 2010 graduating classes intentions to pursue college education varies by school Orleans: 51 percent; Paoli: 67 percent; and Springs Valley: 72 percent. 13

16 Figure 8: Educational Attainment, United States Indiana Orange County Bachelor's or Higher Some College/Associate High School or Less Percent of Population 25 or Older Note: Due to Orange County s small population, it is necessary to use the five-year estimates. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates The Indiana Department of Education (IDOE) collects data on graduating high school seniors and their intent to pursue higher education degrees (see Figure 9). The IDOE reported these data by county through 2008, but by school thereafter; thus for the 2009 and 2010 data, the IBRC research team used current IDOE school reports to piece together the estimates. 2 In 2000 and 2001, Orange County graduates intentions to pursue higher education were higher than the state average. However, in 2002, that percentage nosedived and has remained well below the state rate. Unfortunately while the state s rate for postsecondary intentions has steadily increased over time, Orange County s has been quite volatile likely reflecting Orange County s small cohort relative to the state. There may be many reasons why Orange County residents are not more interested in pursuing higher education, such as lack of affordability and access, few employment opportunities requiring education beyond high school in the local area and family influence (especially if parents do not have a higher education degree). 2 These data indicate only intent, not whether the students actually did attend a postsecondary institution and complete a degree. 14

17 Figure 9: Percentage of High School Graduates Intending to Pursue a Higher Education Degree, % 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Indiana Orange County 60% Note: Data for 2009 and 2010 were aggregated from the individual school reports. Source: Indiana Department of Education Regionally, county residents are able to take classes at Vincennes University (regional campus in Jasper), at the Salem learning center, Bedford, and other locations. However, the county recognizes that it needs county specific training in hotel and tourism management skills. Therefore, the county is involved in ongoing dialogue with Ivy Tech about re opening its community learning center, thus offering higher education courses to county residents. 3 This initiative is needed as currently the French Lick Resort has to hire employees from outside the region to fill both upper and middle management positions, and the resort would rather promote from within to reduce turnover and further support the community. If local employers supported the effort, additional classes focused on workforce skills could be added to the curriculum to address local employment needs. While it might be desirable to increase the share of individuals with bachelor s and above degrees, the county could benefit greatly from expanding its pool of certificate and associate degree holders thus the Ivy Tech partnership could be a good fit. OC and Its Peers: Education Among its peers, Orange County has the second highest percentage of individuals with a high school diploma or less (see Table 3). Subsequently, it has the lowest percentage of individuals with some college or associate s degree and the second lowest percentage of residents with a bachelor s degree or higher. Since 2000, there has been very little change in the educational attainment trends in Orange County and McNairy County, TN, both of which have many individuals with only a high school diploma or less. The fastest growing county in the peer group, Mille Lacs, MN, has relatively few residents with high schoolor less attainment and the group s highest proportion with some college or an associate degree. Research 3 Orange County had a community learning center administered by Ivy Tech, but it closed in

18 finds that individuals with certificates or associate degrees tend to stay in their hometown, whereas those with bachelor s degrees have a tendency to pursue occupations outside the local area. 4 Since certificate and associate degree programs tend to be more focused on workforce preparation, encouraging attainment of these degrees may be especially relevant for Orange County and its employers. Table 3: Educational Attainment Distributions, National Peers, 2000 to 2009 Bachelor s Degree or Higher Some College or Associate Degree High School or Less Change Change 2009 Change 2009 since 2009 since National Peer Proportion since 2000 Proportion 2000 Proportion 2000 Antrim, MI 22.5% 3.1% 28.4% 0.3% 49.1% -3.4% Putnam, GA 17.5% 3.1% 26.6% 6.1% 55.9% -9.2% Ashe, NC 16.5% 4.4% 26.5% 3.3% 57.0% -7.7% Cherokee, KS 14.2% 2.9% 31.3% 1.1% 54.6% -3.9% Lavaca, TX 14.2% 2.8% 24.0% 3.5% 61.7% -6.4% Mille Lacs, MN 13.9% 1.7% 34.0% 5.2% 52.1% -6.9% Adams, WA 13.6% 1.4% 26.4% 1.5% 60.0% -2.9% Seminole, OK 13.6% 1.5% 27.8% 1.5% 58.7% -2.9% Ste. Genevieve, MO 12.2% 4.1% 25.0% 2.2% 62.9% -6.1% Orange, IN 11.0% 0.8% 19.9% 1.5% 69.1% -2.3% McNairy, TN 9.7% 0.9% 20.8% 1.3% 69.5% -2.2% Note: 2000 data are from the decennial census whereas data are five-year estimates which must be used due to the small population sizes. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates 4 The IBRC research team observed this pattern in the Indiana University Economic Impact Study, and recently found similar findings among a cohort of statewide postsecondary graduates. 16

19 Industry Mix by Employment and Occupation Consistent with the presence of major resorts and abundant forests, Orange County s top two industries are accommodation and food services and manufacturing (see Table 4). 5 Together these two industries comprised one third of all employment in The third largest employment industry is construction, although it may be similar in size to the health care and social assistance industry (for which data are not disclosed) that includes the IU Health Paoli hospital and the local nursing home facilities and services. As anticipated due to the restoration of the French Lick resorts, accommodation and food services sector employment has surged. While manufacturing used to be the county s major employer, its dominance has declined over the years. As in the rest of the state and nation, manufacturing employment declined more severely during the recession ( 11.6 percent) than during the past decade overall ( 4.9 percent average annual rate). Other sectors that grew notably over the past decade include administrative, support, waste management and remediation services (average annual rate of 12.8 percent); information (4.2 percent); and real estate, rental and leasing (4.1 percent). Table 4: Orange County Employment by Sector, Employment Percent of Total Average Annual Rate of Change Average Annual Rate of Change Total employment 9, % 1.1% -1.9% Wage and salary employment 7, % 1.4% -2.1% Proprietors employment 1, % -0.5% -0.9% Farm proprietors employment % -3.4% 0.0% Nonfarm proprietors employment 1, % 1.1% -1.3% Farm employment % -2.4% -1.8% Nonfarm employment 8, % 1.3% -1.9% Private employment 7, % 1.3% -2.4% Accommodation and food services 1, % 23.1% -1.8% Manufacturing 1, % -4.9% -11.6% Construction % 0.8% -0.9% Retail trade % -1.9% -4.8% Other services, except public administration % -0.4% -2.2% Administrative and waste management services % 12.8% 9.9% Transportation and warehousing % 0.2% -7.6% 5 The majority of Orange County s manufacturing is in the wood products and furniture related categories. 17

20 2009 Employment Percent of Total Average Annual Rate of Change Average Annual Rate of Change Arts, entertainment, and recreation % 2.9% 9.0% Real estate and rental and leasing % 4.1% -1.5% Finance and insurance % 1.0% 2.9% Information % 4.2% 9.3% Forestry, fishing, and related activities ND Mining ND Utilities ND Wholesale trade ND Professional, scientific, and technical services ND Management of companies and enterprises ND Educational services (private only) ND Health care and social assistance ND Government and government enterprises 1, % 1.9% 2.4% Federal, civilian % -0.5% 0.0% Military % 0.0% 4.1% State and local % 2.2% 2.4% State government % 2.1% 0.8% Local government % 2.2% 2.7% Note: ND represents non-disclosable data. This accounts for roughly 1,438 employees or 15.2 percent of total employment. Employment figures include both payroll employees and the self-employed. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis As a whole, Orange County has only a handful of declining industries manufacturing, retail trade, other services (excluding public administration) and farming. Total employment grew by an average of 1.1 percent annually since 2001 (94 jobs a year), largely from wage and salary employees and non farm proprietors, not farm proprietors. Indeed, farm employment for both proprietors and employees declined in the county. The Great Recession certainly impacted the county with a 3.7 percent employment decline between 2007 and While the overall uptick in employment over the decade is positive news, it is not enough growth to employ graduating seniors of local high schools and postsecondary institutions. Recognizing the county s strength in the accommodation and food services sector, community leaders are focusing on its tourism cluster attracting and developing businesses that complement the resort and casino business. Unfortunately, Orange County is not always an easy sell to outside investors due to limited available developable land (particularly in the French Lick West Baden area) despite the area s low cost, central location for regional markets and abundance of low to moderately skilled labor. Location quotients (LQs) are widely used to show which industries have a particularly strong presence in a region. In this study, LQs were calculated by dividing a given industry cluster s share of total 18

21 employment in Orange County by the cluster s corresponding share in the nation as a whole; an LQ greater than 1 indicates that the industry cluster is more concentrated locally than the national average. 6 Table 5 shows that Orange County s only notable strong industrial presence is in the forest and wood products industry more than six times greater than the national concentration. However, the LQ has shrunk by about one third since 2001, showing that this cluster is losing ground relative to other parts of the nation, even though it s still represented far above average in the local economy. Two clusters chemicals and chemical based products and glass and ceramics have increased their concentrations since 2001 and pay wages below the average for all clusters. The two highest paying industry clusters (life sciences and defense and security) both have low LQs, but any growth in these clusters could help improve Orange County s average wage. Several clusters are not listed due to data suppression in 2009, including advanced materials; agribusiness, food processing and technology; apparel and textiles; manufacturing; mining; and printing and publishing. Table 5: Orange County Industry Cluster Location Quotients and Average Wage per Job, 2001 to 2009 Industry Cluster 2001 LQ 2009 LQ 2009 Average Wage Total, All Industries $28,526 Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Visitor Industries ND 0.56 $10,063 Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences) ND 0.35 $42,632 Business and Financial Services $30,025 Chemicals and Chemical Based Products $26,112 Defense and Security ND 0.39 $44,253 Education and Knowledge Creation $31,390 Energy (Fossil and Renewable) $21,971 Forest and Wood Products $31,169 Glass and Ceramics $26,112 Information Technology and Telecommunications $37,446 Note: ND represents non-disclosable data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) and Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions) Another approach to assessing a region s workforce strengths uses the knowledge and skills needed to carry out a job to define occupation (rather than industry) clusters. Occupation clusters are formed by grouping occupations with similar job functions, knowledge requirements, essential experience and the amount of on the job training needed to accomplish the work. 7 Occupations are classified in the O*NET 6 The industry cluster data are derived from work done by the Purdue Center for Regional Development in collaboration with the IBRC for an Economic Development Administration project titled, Unlocking Rural Competitiveness: The Role of Regional Clusters. More information about the clusters and related work can be found at 7 More information about occupation clusters and the methodology underlying them can be found at 19

22 system (sponsored by the U.S. Department of Labor) into five job zones. Job zones 1 and 2 are characterized by relatively low skill levels, formal education requirements and wages, the likelihood of few benefits and easy transfer between jobs. 8 The remaining zones 3 through 5 require significantly more knowledge, skills and education. Occupations in these higher level zones are allocated into 15 knowledge clusters, with health care and medical science further disaggregated into three sub clusters. Nearly 60 percent of Orange County s workforce is in low skilled occupations requiring little or no formal training. The largest share of Orange County workers (38 percent) fall into job zone 2 followed by job zone 1 at 21.5 percent (see Table 6). This means that nearly 60 percent of Orange County s workforce is in low skilled occupations requiring no formal training or very little training which may partially explain why educational attainment is relatively low in the county. Compared to the state, Orange County has a larger share of low skilled occupations, particularly in job zone 1. Among higher skilled occupations, skilled production workers comprise the highest share of Orange County workers at 10.3 percent. Comparing the proportion of workers in select clusters to the state, Orange County has higher proportions of its workforce in skilled production occupations and in agribusiness and food technology jobs. Over time, the proportion of Orange County workers in each occupation cluster has changed very little. The most notable increase since 2001 has been a 2.2 percentage point increase in the proportion of job zone 1 workers. The largest decreases in proportion of workers in a particular occupation cluster include agribusiness and technology ( 1.9 percent), job zone 2 ( 0.9 percent), and skilled production workers ( 0.8 percent). The declines in job zone two and skilled production workers concern local employers that are having difficulties finding qualified workers for hire. This is a situation where the county s partnership with Ivy Tech could assist the local workforce to advance from job zone one to more skilled labor. In particular, employers have noticed that middle aged workers need more computer skills to adapt to technological changes in the workforce. 8 O*Net definitions of job zones can be found at 20

23 Table 6: Occupation Cluster Mix of Orange County and Indiana, 2009 Occupation Cluster Orange County Indiana Employment Share Employment Share Job Zone 2 3, % 1,311, % Job Zone 1 2, % 536, % Skilled Production Workers: Technicians, Operators, Trades, Installers & Repairers % 304, % Agribusiness and Food Technology % 65, % Health Care and Medical Science (Aggregate) Primary/Secondary and Vocational Education, Remediation & Social Services % 205, % % 179, % Managerial, Sales, Marketing and HR % 249, % Legal and Financial Services, and Real Estate Health Care and Medical Science (Therapy, Counseling and Rehabilitation ) % 245, % % 117, % Personal Services Occupations % 69, % Health Care and Medical Science (Medical Technicians) Arts, Entertainment, Publishing and Broadcasting Mathematics, Statistics, Data and Accounting Health Care and Medical Science (Medical Practitioners and Scientists) % 44, % % 61, % % 64, % % 42, % Public Safety and Domestic Security % 37, % Engineering and Related Sciences % 32, % Information Technology % 51, % Postsecondary Education and Knowledge Creation Building, Landscape and Construction Design Natural Sciences and Environmental Management % 43, % % 12, % % 10, % Note: Job zone 1 includes occupations that need little or no preparation the occupations may require a high school diploma or GED certificate. Some may require a formal training course to obtain a license. Job zone 2 includes occupations that need some preparation the occupations usually require a high school diploma and may require some vocational training or job-related course work. In some cases, an associate or bachelor s degree could be needed. Source: Statsamerica.org; Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. Complete Employment Statistics OC and Its Peers: Employment Trends and GDP Over the past decade, Orange County has posted an average annual employment gain of 1.1 percent, ranking it second among its peers for employment growth (see Figure 10). Putnam, GA, led the peer set with 1.9 percent average annual growth, while the remaining counties with positive growth grew at less 21

24 than 0.5 percent annually. The recession severely impacted several counties, especially McNairy, TN, and Mille Lacs, MN. Compared to its peers, Orange County had the sixth highest average annual change in employment at 1.9 percent between 2007 and Figure 10: Average Annual Employment Change, National Peers, 2001 to 2009 and 2007 to 2009 McNairy, TN Cherokee, KS Adams, WA Mille Lacs, MN Seminole, OK Antrim, MI Ashe, NC Ste. Genevieve, MO Lavaca, TX Orange, IN Putnam, GA -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Manufacturing and leisure & hospitality are Orange County s top employing industries, so it is instructive to compare their relative importance in the peer counties (see Figure 11). As of 2009, Ste. Genevieve, MO, had the highest share of manufacturing jobs. Orange County had the highest share of leisure and hospitality employment, which also experienced strong growth. (Note that leisure and hospitality data for Adams, WA, and McNairy, TN, were non disclosable.) Adams County, WA, was the only county to experience positive growth in manufacturing since 2001, and McNairy County, TN, had the largest decline in manufacturing share. Throughout this time period, all peer counties experienced positive growth in the leisure and hospitality industry except for Seminole, Antrim and Mille Lacs. 22

25 Figure 11: Share of Manufacturing and Leisure and Hospitality Employment and Trends, National Peers, 2001 to % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Share of Manufacturing (left axis) Manufacturing Change (right axis) Share of Leisure and Hospitality (left axis) Leisure and Hospitality Change (right axis) 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% Note: Leisure and hospitality data for McNairy and Adams counties were non-disclosable. Leisure and hospitality employment includes two industry sectors: arts, entertainment and recreation and accommodation and food services. Change is reflected as the difference in the industry share of employment in 2009 versus Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The mix of industries in a given region affects the region s gross domestic product (GDP, its economic output). All of the peer counties experienced increased GDP between 2000 and Of all the counties, Ashe, NC, had the largest GDP at $856 million, whereas Antrim, MI, had the smallest at $507.5 million (see Figure 12). Seminole, OK, has had the strongest average annual GDP growth at 8.7 percent, followed by Lavaca, TX, at 8.5 percent. Orange County s GDP grew at 4.2 percent annually making it the fourthfastest growing county in the peer group. Figure 12: Estimated GDP, National Peers, GDP Value (in millions) $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ GDP (left axis) Rate of Change (right axis) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Average Annual Rate of Change, Note: 2008 is the most recent year for which GDP data are available. Source: Moody s Analytics 23

26 Income and Wages In 2010, the Orange County average wage for all industries was $29,134 approximately $10,000 less than the state s average wage and $17,600 less than the nation (see Figure 13). Orange County s average wage has grown about 3 percent annually over the past decade, besting the state s rate of 2.7 percent and matching the national rate of wage growth. U.S. and Orange County average wage growth has exceeded the average rate of inflation, whereas Indiana s average wage has simply kept pace with inflation in the past decade. Orange County average wage growth has outpaced inflation. Figure 13: Average Wage, U.S., Indiana and Orange County, 2000 to 2010 U.S. Indiana Orange County $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Table 7 shows that three industries pay higher wages in Orange County than their statewide averages transportation and warehousing; administration, support, waste management and remediation services; and accommodation and food services. On the other end of the spectrum, three industries pay less than half of the state s average wage arts, entertainment and recreation; management of companies and enterprises; and real estate, rental and leasing. Unfortunately, the industries paying higher than state average wages cover only 13.5 percent of the workforce, explaining why the county s average wage is slightly less than three fourths the state average. 24

27 Table 7: Average Wage Distribution, Orange County, 2010 Percent of Indiana s Average Wage Average Wage Total Employment $29, % Construction $48, % Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services $40, % Transportation & Warehousing $40, % Manufacturing $34, % Finance and Insurance $32, % Educational Services $31, % Management of Companies and Enterprises $31, % Admin. & Support & Waste Mgt. & Rem. Services $29, % Public Administration $28, % Information $22, % Accommodation and Food Services $21, % Retail Trade $20, % Other Services (Except Public Administration) $18, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $15, % Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation $11, % Note: The following industries are non-disclosable: agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining; utilities; wholesale trade; and health care and social services. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Per capita personal income (PCPI) is a broader indicator of a region s income level because it includes many sources of income, not just wages. It includes wages/salaries, any supplements to wages and salaries (e.g., bonuses), proprietors income, investment income and personal current transfer receipts, but not contributions for government social insurance. Figure 14 shows that in 1970, the county, state and nation were very similar in PCPI, but Orange County PCPI subsequently accelerated more slowly than the U.S. and Indiana. Between 2006 and 2008, Orange County steadily narrowed the gap with the state, but it still lags Indiana by roughly $5,000 and the nation by $10,000. As of 2009, Orange County PCPI was $29,042, Indiana s was $34,022 and U.S. PCPI was $39,635. Orange County s PCPI was 85.4 percent of Indiana s PCPI and 73.3 percent of the nation s PCPI, and it has grown at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent over the past nine years. 25

28 Figure 14: Per Capita Personal Income of Orange County, Indiana and the U.S., 1970 to 2009 Indiana Orange United States $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $- Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis To better understand the composition of personal income, Table 8 breaks down the components comprising the bulk of personal income. Orange County is fairly similar to the state and nation in all categories except personal current transfer receipts. Net earnings by place of residence (which includes wages earned at the workplace adjusted for government and social insurance contributions and residence) comprises the largest share of personal income. Wages and salaries are the primary component of net earnings, followed by supplements to wages and salaries (i.e., employer contributions to employee pension and insurance funds and for government social insurance). The smallest major category of income for all areas was dividends, interest and rent, comprising less than one fifth of each area s personal income. The remainder of personal income is derived from personal current transfer receipts, which are government payments to individuals for which no services are performed. Consistent with local community leaders intuitions, Orange County residents are more dependent on such government payments than are residents of the state and nation, primarily for medical benefits and retirement and disability insurance benefits (43.7 and 35.3 percent of current transfer receipts, respectively). The 27.8 percent of personal income coming from government payments might help explain recurring themes in the area such as the receipt of free or subsidized lunches in the county schools (51 percent in 2010), common perceptions that local citizens want handouts, and the categorization of the county as being one of the poorest in the state. 26

29 Table 8: Composition of Personal Income, U.S., Indiana and Orange County, 2009 Personal Income Component U.S. IN Orange County Net earnings by place of residence 64.5% 65.5% 59.6% Net earnings by place of work 72.4% 71.7% 57.9% Wage and salary disbursements 71.1% 71.2% 73.5% Supplements to wages and salaries 17.3% 18.2% 17.5% Proprietors' income 11.6% 10.6% 9.1% Dividends, interest, and rent 18.0% 14.6% 12.7% Personal current transfer receipts 17.5% 19.9% 27.8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Orange County and Its Peers: Income Among the national peers, Ste. Genevieve, MO, had the highest 2010 average wage at $36,011, which is $10,700 below the national average (see Figure 15). Overall, average wages in the peer counties averaged around $30,300 with Antrim, MI, reporting the lowest average wage of $27,322. Orange County places in the middle of the pack for both average wage and average annual growth rate. Six counties had faster growth rates than the United States, led by Seminole, OK, at 7.1 percent. Figure 15: Average Wage, National Peers, 2000 to 2010 $50, Average Wage (left axis) Rate of Change (right axis) 10% 2010 Average Wage $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Average Annual Rate of Growth, 2000 to 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Despite Ste. Genevieve having the highest average wage among the national peers, Lavaca, TX, and Putnam, GA, recorded higher PCPIs than Ste. Genevieve (see Figure 16). This indicates that residents in those areas obtain significant income from sources other than wages. Relative to the U.S., the national peers PCPIs range from 92.7 percent (Lavaca, TX) to 65.7 percent (McNairy, TN). Orange County is in the lower half of the peer counties for PCPI, PCPI growth rate and PCPI as a percentage of the U.S value. 27

30 Figure 16: Per Capita Personal Income of National Peers, 2000 to PCPI (left axis) Rate of Change (right axis) 2009 Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $- 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Average Annual Rate of Change, 2000 to 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 28

31 Commuting Patterns The availability of quality jobs in other regions and the willingness of workers to travel have caused commuting to become a way of life for many workers. The economic effects of commuting reach beyond the individual worker to the broader community. Therefore, this study examines the commuting patterns of workers as well as the gross earnings flows to and from counties. The available commuting data are at the county level, with Indiana s data being the most comprehensive. Figure 17 shows that Lawrence and Orange County are the major sources of workers commuting into each other s county. Sixty one percent of Orange County s inbound commuters come from Lawrence, Washington, Dubois, Crawford and Martin counties. The commuters leaving Orange County go mainly to either Lawrence or Dubois County with the remainder traveling to Washington, Monroe and Kentucky. These top five counties capture 67.4 percent of all outgoing commuters. Figure 17: Workers Commuting Into and Out of Orange County, 2009 Source: STATS Indiana Commuting Profiles, using Indiana Department of Revenue data In 2000, 79.9 of Orange County workers were employed in the county, but by 2009 this percentage had increased to 82.8 percent. This increase in non commuting residents cannot be explained solely by growth in the implied resident labor force (individuals who live in Orange County and work), which rose only 0.3 percent over the past nine years (see Table 9). Rather the increase primarily came from a reduction in residents commuting out of the county. Nearly 70 percent of the county s increase in employment results from reduced outbound commuting and growth in the resident labor force. The remaining 30 percent came from an increase in incoming commuters. Commuting affects where paychecks wind up. That is, a resident who crosses county lines to work brings her earnings home to her county of residence from the county of employment. Orange County s increased volume of incoming commuters thus resulted in higher gross earnings outflows. These 29