Julie Ann Elston, Ph.D. Oregon State University, Fulbright-Kathryn and Craig Hall Distinguished Chair in Entrepreneurship in Central Europe

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1 Julie Ann Elston, Ph.D. Oregon State University, Fulbright-Kathryn and Craig Hall Distinguished Chair in Entrepreneurship in Central Europe

2 Do they have capital limitations? Are they risk lovers? How can policy better help them?

3 We still know relatively little about the economics behind the use of alternative forms of start-up finance, including family lending, mutual guarantee schemes, and credit card finance. It is possible that these can be useful alternative sources of funds that can help entrepreneurs bypass credit rationing, but presently we do not know the precise extent to which this is the case Parker 2005 excess entry and maximum use of self financing by a self selected group of risk-lovers. -De Meza and Southey [1996]

4 Blanchflower & Oswald (1998) UK => wealth matters Palisch and Bagby (1995) and Keh et al. (2002) => no evidence of RA on Entre Georgellis, Sessions and Tsitsianis (2005) survey, UK and US, impact of inherit (7 -) and (11 +) Evans and Jovanovic (1989) US, wealth (+) =>entre Cressy (2000) omission of risk attitudes! Kan and Tsai (2006) US => wealth matters even when controlling for RA =>This paper: Wealth and liquidity +impact Entre decision controlling for RA

5 Historically, generalizations about hightechnology entrepreneurs use data from: 1) sampling the general population 2) entrepreneurs in general, for example pooling data on both restaurant owners and high technology innovators, 3) relying on campus laboratory experiments conducted on student test subjects. =>Field data on entrepreneurs Source: Elston, Harrison,& Rutstrom (2005)

6 Field data collected at 2 national Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) conferences Real High-Technology Entrepreneurs from around the country N=180 (82(Atlanta), 98(Omaha)) Demographics of FTE-Entre (33%) v non-entre (29%): Asian decent (16% vs. 4%), Graduate degree (59% vs. 52%), Lower household income (47% vs. 61%), Age (42 years vs. 43 years).

7 How did you primarily finance your firm's start-up? Earnings from 2 nd job, 58% Private loans, 21% Credit cards, 13% SBIR grant, 9% Inheritance, 3% Gift, 1%

8 Experimental methods Holt and Laury (2002) based on psychology tests Subjects choice between 2 lotteries, defined as A or B, where crossover point between these safe and the high-risk lottery, infer the degree of risk aversion.

9 ID: X Decision Option A Option B Your Choice (Circle A or B) 1 $20.00 if throw of die is 1 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-2 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-3 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-4 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-5 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-6 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-7 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-8 $16.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-9 $16.00 if throw of die is 10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1 $1.00 if throw of die is 2-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-2 $1.00 if throw of die is 3-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-3 $1.00 if throw of die is 4-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-4 $1.00 if throw of die is 5-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-5 $1.00 if throw of die is 6-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-6 $1.00 if throw of die is 7-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-7 $1.00 if throw of die is 8-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-8 $1.00 if throw of die is 9-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-9 $1.00 if throw of die is $20.00 if throw of die is 1-10 $38.50 if throw of die is 1-10 A B DECISION ROW CHOSEN BY FIRST THROW OF THE DIE: THROW OF THE DIE TO DETERMINE PAYMENT: EARNINGS: A A A A A A A A A B B B B B B B B B

10 Version X: Ten Paired Lottery-Choice Decisions Option A Option B EV A EV B Expected Payoff Difference 0.1 $ $ $ $1.00 $16.40 $4.75 $ $ $ $ $1.00 $16.80 $8.50 $ $ $ $ $1.00 $17.20 $12.25 $ $ $ $ $1.00 $17.60 $16.00 $ $ $ $ $1.00 $18.00 $ $ $ $ $ $1.00 $18.40 $ $ $ $ $ $1.00 $18.80 $ $ $ $ $ $1.00 $19.20 $ $ $ $ $ $1.00 $19.60 $ $ $ $ $ $1.00 $20.00 $ $18.50

11 Risk Aversion Classifications Based on Lottery Choices Number Range of of Relative Risk Aversion Risk Preference Safe Choices for U(x) = x 1-r /(1-r) Classification 0-1 r < highly risk loving < r < very risk loving < r < risk loving < r < 0.15 risk neutral < r < 0.41 slightly risk averse < r < 0.68 risk averse < r < 0.97 very risk averse < r < 1.37 highly risk averse < r stay in bed Source: Holt and Laury. Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects, pg. 10

12 Frequency Frequency 15 Elicited Risk Attitudes of Entrepreneurs Risk Loving Mid-Point of Directly Elicited CRRA Interval Elicited Over Prizes Between $1.00 and $38.50 Entrepreneurs (N=29) Risk Averse Risk Loving Non-Entrepreneurs (N=25) Risk Averse

13 TABLE 2 Logit Estimations of Firm Entry Controlling for: Demographic Characteristics, Risk Attitude (CRRA) and Wealth Parameter Estimate t-stat Estimate t-stat Estimate t-stat Intercept Age Race Female HigherEd CRRA ** Log(Assets) 0.551*** Lassets *** Likelihood(pr.) Wald (pr.) (.0001) 3.99 (.5511) 5.05 (.2864) (.0001) 3.86 (.5590) 4.88 (.2997)

14 Financing j 0 1Demo j 2Wealth j 3 Table 2 CRRA j e j Logit Estimations of Primary Source of Financing Used to Start Entrepreneurial Firm SBIR SBIR Second job Parameter Estimate std.error Estimate std.error Estimate std.error Intercept ** Age *** 0.02 Race Female *** HigherEd Risk ** 0.68 Wealth * Wealth 2 '0.23**** ** * Likelihood (pr.) 9.11 (0.03) (0.00) (0.10) Wald 7.84 (0.05) (0.10) 9.63 (0.23) Variable definitions: The dependent variables are the primary sources of financing used for start-up, a binary variable that takes on a value of 1 if the entrepreneur used that source, and 0 otherwise. A ge is the age of the subject in years. Race is coded as 1 for non-caucasian and 0 otherwise. Female is 0 for male and 1 for female. HigherEd is 0 for bachelors or lower and 1 for graduate or professional degrees. Risk is the elicited measure of constant relative risk aversion of the subject. Wealth is the log of assets of the entrepreneurial firm, and Wealth2 is the square of this term. All other variables are defined in the Data section of the paper. (*), (**), (***), and (****) denotes statistical significance at the 20%, 10%, 5%, and 1% levels respectively.

15 Hypothesis 1: Increases in Wealth and lower Risk Aversion both lead to an increased probability that an individual will start a firm Hypothesis 2: Being Male leads to an increased probability that an individual will use SBIR grants as a primary source of start-up capital (does not address market failure) Hypothesis 3: Increases in Risk Aversion or Age leads to an increased probability that an individual will use earnings from a Second job as primary source of start-up capital Hypothesis 4: Increases Wealth lead to an increased probability of Loans being used as primary source of start-up capital

16 Would You Have Undertaken Project if No SBIR Award? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Uncertain Probable Definite 30% 20% 10% 0% Yes Uncertain No Source: Wessner (p. 124, 2009)

17 For General population: Entrepreneurs are only slightly less risk averse than non-entrepreneurs Lower Risk Aversion and higher Wealth leads to a higher prob of starting a firm. For Successful Entrepreneurs: Being male increases the probability of using SBIR Higher levels of Risk Aversion and Age increase the probability of 1) using earnings from a second job

18 Context matters! 1) Cultural Intelligence Project: Instrument 2) Data

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21 Financing j 0 1Demo j 2Wealth j 3 CRRA j e j Table 3 Logit Estimations of Probability of Financing Start-up with Loans by Risk Attitude Both Highly Risk Averse Low Risk Averse Parameter Estimate std. err. Estimate std. error Estimate std. error Intercept * Age Race Female HigherEd Risk Wealth ** Wealth ** * 0.02 Likelihood (prob.) 5.62 (0.59) (0.03) 5.21 (0.51) Wald 4.66 (0.70) 4.07 (0.67) 4.38 (0.62) Variable definitions: The dependent variable is a binary variable indicating use of loan financing as a primary source for firm start-up, which takes a value of 1 if the subject started a firm primarily with loan financing and 0 otherwise. Age is the age of the subject in years. Race is coded as 1 for noncaucasian and 0 otherwise. Female is 0 for male and 1 for female. HigherEd is 0 for bachelors or lower and 1 for graduate or professional degrees. Risk is the elicited measure of constant relative risk aversion of the entrepreneur. Wealth is the log of assets of the entrepreneurial firm, and Wealth2 is the square of this term. Highly Risk Averse are those entrepreneurs with risk levels above the median r > 0.23 and Low Risk Averse are those entrepreneurs with risk aversion levels below the median r < 0.23 for the data -with means of indicating risk loving attitudes. All other variables are defined in the Data section of the paper. (*) and (**) denotes statistical significance at the 20% and 10% levels respectively.

22 Table 1: Key Variable Descriptions Variable Variable Description Mean Std. dev. General Entry 1 if the subject started a firm; and 0 otherwise Age Age of subject in years Race 1 if non-caucasian; and 0 otherwise Female 1 if gender is female; and 0 otherwise HigherEd 1 if terminal degree is graduate or professional; and 0 for a bachelors degree or less. The median education level is bachelors. CRRA Measure of the individual s degree of risk aversion LASSETS Log of the assets of the entrepreneurial firm Lassets2 Square of the log of assets of the entrepreneurial firm. Shortnow 1 if currently experiencing a shortage of capital; 2=no; 0 otherwise SBIR-rec 1 if received an SBIR grant; 2 if not Inc Estimated annual household income from 10 categories: 1)$25K or under, 2)$25-$45K, 3) $45-$65K, 4) $65-$85K, 5) $85-$100K etc...10) over $200k LC1 variables: Primary sources of start-up capital as % total. Inherit Inheritance reported as a primary source Gift Gifts were reported as a primary source CCards Credit cards was reported as a primary source nd -Job Earnings from a second job was reported as a primary source SBIR SBIR grant reported as a primary source Private Loans from an individual or bank reported as a primary source Other Other sources (possibly lottery or gambling income) reported as a primary source LC2 variables: Current source of firm funding as % of total capital. Gov t Includes all government loans or grants including SBIR Private Loans from bank or private persons reported as a current source CCards Credit cards reported as a current source nd -Job Earnings from a second job reported as a current source CF Cash flow from operations reported as a current source Equity Equity capital reported as a current source Other Other sources (possibly as lottery or gambling income) reported as a current source

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24 WELCOME TO THE RESEARCH STUDY DESCRIPTION This is a study of economic decision making. We think you will find it interesting, you will be paid $10 for your participation and you could earn additional money. How much you earn will depend partly on chance and partly on the choice you make in decision problems which you will be presented with. The instructions are simple and you will benefit from following them carefully. The problems are not designed to test you. What we want to know is what choices you would make in them. The only right answer is what you really would choose. That is why the problems give you the chance of earning real money. You will be paid in cash today. Part will be paid right after you have finished the task and the rest you can collect from 5.15 pm to 6 pm tonight, or else we can mail it to you. The task will proceed in three short parts. The first part consists of a few questions about your firm and you. This information is for research use only. The published results of our research will not identify any firm or individual, or the choice he or she made in any way. Nor will we give this identifying information to anyone else. The second and third part are short decision problems in which chance may play a part. Each decision-problem requires you to make a choice. This is described in more detail when you have completed the first part. Both of these parts may result in additional earnings over and above the $10 participation fee. We expect the entire task to take minutes. ID: Part 1: Some Questions About You and Your Firm In this survey most of the questions asked are descriptive. We will not be grading your answers and your responses are completely confidential. We will not be recording your name or the name of your firm on this sheet. Please think carefully about each question and give your best answers.

25 Some Questions About You 1. What is your AGE? years 2. What is your sex? (Circle one number.) 01 Male 02 Female 3. Which of the following categories best describes you? (Circle one number.) 01 White 06 Hispanic-American 02 African-American 07 Hispanic 03 African 08 Mixed Race 04 Asian-American 09 Other 05 Asian 4. What is your current employment status, and that of your spouse or domestic partner? (Circle all that apply) Your spouse or You domestic partner Self-employed part-time Self-employed full-time Part-time employment in another firm (or government) Full-time employment in another firm (or government) Actively seeking employment Unemployed 5. What is the highest level of education you have completed? (Circle one number) 01 Less than high school 04 Vocational or trade school 02 GED or High School Equivalency 05 Bachelor s degree at college 03 High school 06 Higher degree at college

26 6. Are you currently Single and never married? 03 Separated or divorced? 02 Married? 04 Widowed? 7. How many people live in your household? Include yourself, your spouse and any dependents. Do not include your parents or roommates unless you claim them as dependents. 8. Please circle the category below that describes the total amount of INCOME earned in 2003 by the people in your household (as household is defined in the previous question). [Consider all forms of income, including salaries, tips, interest and dividend payments, scholarship support, student loans, parental support, social security, alimony, and child support, and others.] 01 $25,000 or under 06 $100,001 - $125,00002 $25,001 - $45, $125,001 - $150,00003 $45,001 - $65, $150,001 - $175,00004 $65,001 - $85, $175,001 - $200,00005 $85,001 - $100, over $200,000 IF YOU SELECTED SELF-EMPLOYED IN QUESTION 4 THEN PLEASE COMPLETE THE QUESTIONS BELOW. OTHERWISE, YOU MAY PROCEED TO PART 2. Questions About Your Firm 1. How old is your firm, in years? 2. What type of product or service do you provide?

27 3. Have you ever experienced a shortage of capital in running your firm? (Circle one number) 01 Never 02 Rarely 03 Occasionall 04 Often 05 Always 4. Do you have a shortage of capital now? 01 Yes 02 No 5. How did you primarily finance your firm s start up? (Circle all that apply) 01 Inheritance 05 SBIR grant 02 Gift 06 Private loan from a bank or person 03 Credit cards 07 Other 04 Earnings from another job 6. Have you ever applied for or received an SBIR grant? Applied: 01 Yes 02 No Received: 01 Yes 02 No 8. How do you finance your firm now? Enter rough percentages for each: 01 Government loans or grants 02 Private loans from banks or people 03 Credit cards 04 Earnings from another job 05 Cash from operations 06 Equity capital 07 Other 9. What would you estimate to be the annual revenue of your firm? 10. What would you estimate to be the value of the assets of your firm? 11. What is the state and ZIP code of the main location of your firm?

28 TABLE 4 Logit Estimations on Is Your Firm Currently Experiencing a Capital Shortage? 1 2 Parameter Estimate t-stat Estimate t-stat Intercept CRRA Age Race Female HigherEd SBIR-rec * * 1.77 Cash Flow * 1.69 Likelihood(pr.) 6.93 (.4364) 6.37(.0413) Wald (pr.) 5.95 (.5454) 4.59(.1004)

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