Growing Africa Moving more together A Sales Finance View Robert Grassmann

Transcription

1 Growing Africa Moving more together A Sales Finance View Robert Grassmann ABW 2013 Regions and Products Duties of a Turnkey Contractor Commercial Viability Financial Sensitivity Success Factors ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

2 Africa s growing population needs Resources to develop its economy and infrastructure Many contract partners -assuming their specific roles- will make a project happen: teamwork! 2 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

3 As a contractor, ThyssenKrupp provides Industrial Solutions, e.g. for Mining, Minerals, Materials Handling, Processing Cement Plant, Services Resource Technologies, branding Polysius & Fördertechnik Fertilizer / Chemical Plant Process Technologies, branding Uhde TK in Germany / e.g. Beckum, Essen, Dortmund TK in French Africa / Aix-en-Provence TK in South Africa / Johannesburg TK in Ghana / Accra TK in Mozambique / Maputo TK in India / Pune 3 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

4 Machines & plants, e.g. for Cement and Minerals Industry 4 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

5 Major Turnkey Cement plants and Clinker grinding plants t/d (2007), Tunisia White Cement 2 x t/d (2008), Morocco t/d (2007), Senegal t/d (2001), Tunisia t/d (2008), Tunisia 5 x t/d ( ) Egypt t/d (2007,) Egypt t/d (2004), Sudan t/d (2007), Senegal t/y Ivory Coast (2012) Guinea Conakry (2012) Cameroon (2012) Burkina Faso (2013) Congo Brazzaville (2013) t/d (2007), Kenya t/d (2008), Namibia Integrated Cement plant Cement grinding plant ( ) 03/13 5 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

6 Example: Cement Plant built in Namibia Client: Scope: Order Value: Ohorongo Cement (Pty.) Ltd., 60% subsidiary of Schwenk Zement KG, Ulm/Germany Klein Windhoek/Namibia 2,100 tpd Cement production line Lump-sum turn-key contract, but unit rate contract for civil and structural steel works 179 mn EUR for ThyssenKrupp Polysius, Namibia s largest industrial complex EPC time: more than 3 weeks prior to due date Project Finance: DEG (KfW-group) + European Investment Bank 6 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

7 MENA: Significant amount of reference plants Overview of selected reference plants MENA Marocco Ciments de l'atlas, Cement Plant OCPMUE, Ball Mill OCP, Phosphate Mill Tunisia Rouifa, Cement Plant Feriafa, Cement Plant Ciocom, Coal Mill Jordanian JIFCO, Grinding plant Libya ENI, Maintennance Gas Plant Iraq Daura, Oil Refinery Upgrade Qatar QAPCO, LDPE Saipem QAFCO V, Ammonia Plant and Materials Handling Systems Algeria Sorfert, Ammonia-Urea-Complex Granu Centre, preparation plant for aggregates and sand Egypt ENPC, Ammonia-Urea-Plant EPPC, PDH/PP-Complex EHC, Amminia Nitrat Plant EFC I+II, Urea Revamp Saudi Arabia Al Safwa, Cement Plant OMAN PEARL I + II, PET plant U.A.E Techint-Ruwais, 4 portal scrapers FERTIL II Ammonia-Urea-Plant FUJAIRAH Cement, Cement Plant Yanbu, Pet Coke and Sulfur Handling System YAMAMA Cement, Cement Plant TABUK Cement, Cement Grinding Plant Mining Minerals Cement Fertilizers Base Chemicals Polymers Contracting Services Soharmue, Ball Mill 7 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

8 Large processing plant in Algeria natural gas Ammonia Plant 1 Urea Plant (Synthesis + Granulation) urea Urea Storage urea granules (to ship ) Ammonia Plant 2 ammonia (liquid) Ammonia Storage ammonia liquid (to ship ) sea water (to desal.) water, steam, electricity to consumers Utilities sea water for cooling Client: Orascom Construction Industries for Sonatrach Orascom Fert. Co. (SORFERT) Scope: Licensing, engineering and supply (EPCm), 2 x 2,200 tpd ammonia + 1 x 3,450 tpd urea plant, incl. offsites, auxiliaries, storage, shipping 23. April Order 2013 Value: over 1 bn EUR Order intake: June, 2007 Start of production ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

9 Selected orders in Sub Sahara Africa Senegal Les Ciments du Sahel S.A., Cement plant Côte d Ivoire Cimaf Cement de l'afrique, Cement grinding and dispatch plant EPC Sambia Sentinell Kalumbila Minerals Four Crushers Guinea Cimaf Cement de l'afrique, Cement grinding and dispatch plant South Africa Omnia Fertilizer Ltd., EnviNOx tailgas treatment Polifin, Vinnolit Process Plant Sasol Technology, Coal Tar Filtration east filter press plant Bateman; Kusile Power St. Stockyard PPC de HOEK, Kiln Shell and Riding Rings, Indirect Firing Liberia ArcelorMittal, Ore and Coal Handling System Namibia Ohorongo Cement, Cement production line Mozambique S & S Cimentos, LDA Nacala, Clinker grinding unit Madagascar Ambatovy, Pipe Converyors and Bunkers Mining Minerals Cement Fertilizers Base Chemicals Polymers Contracting Services 9 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

10 Turnkey contract of ThyssenKrupp in Africa reducing risks for investors and banks Fixed price. Guaranteed completion. Activates own responsabilites, timelines and logistics! Electrical Equipment Raw Material Study Cost Calculation Civil/ Steel Structure Process Contract Partner Local Conditions in the Destination Country Engineering and Design Costs Current times and cost Purchasing Results Table of Quantities Scheduling and Schedule Control Risk Assessment 10 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

11 TK Manufacturing, Procurement and Logistics: Using a good method, order specific & continuos, flexible with circumstances. e.g.: a cement contract handles 12,000 purchase orders + 50,000 loose parts shipments 11 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

12 Turnkey contract in Africa: targets for progress curve 100% Progress payments Bidding for tendered project Contractor may give securities to Project Company Contract in Force = Contractor receives downpayment & Payment Securities 3-12 Month Month 12 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

13 Doing business since 150 years, ThyssenKrupp also may organize Financing core equipment Investment steel structures Financing electrical transport insurance Erection & Commissioning turnkey surcharge Interest during construction other non current assets current assets Equity Export Finance Project Finance Cash Sweep (risk mitigant) To complete an investment project, the total Uses of Funds must be equal to total Sources of Funds 13 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

14 Page 14 Should the investor continue? Yes - if NPV is positive! NPV Net Present Value (Discounted Cash Flow) Typical question: Is 6 m return on 100 m CAPEX over 20yr lifetime enough? Yes or no? Cash In & Out each future period has to be discounted with Capital Cost, back to the point of decision making discounted period cash flows = NET PRESENT VALUE. If positive, company shall realize this investment, to increase shareholder value IRR Internal Rate of Return Nominal, undiscounted period residuals are summed up over the lifetime. The IRR brings back the average annual return over the lifetime. a) IRR on equity b) IRR of total project. Expected to be above 10%, to cover uncertainties. Will the bank be repaid? as scheduled? DSCR Debt Service Cover Ratio Will Free Cash Flow in each period cover the repayments and interest (as per loan agreement)? Balance Sheet, Profit &Loss, and Cash flow shall be programmed. Try to optimize Financing tranches: Senior ECA, Senior Commercial, Subloan/Mezzanine DSCR-real = 1,0. DSCR-planned 1,4 (DSCR-senior 1,25 DSCR-subloan 1,5) 14 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

15 Debt Service Cover Ratio how key parameters translate into Free Cash Flow (available for interests & repayments) Balance Sheet: USD '000 EPC1 EPC2 EPC3 Y 1 Y2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 EPC Value (example) USD ' Other assets (example) 10% USD ' Total Assets = Use of Funds USD ' Equity (& Mezzanine secured subordinated) 40% USD ' Senior Loans (Subsidized Export Finance & Project Finance) 60% USD ' Loans, permanently secured from collaterals of shareholders 0% USD '000 (grey) 0 Equity+Debt = Sources of Funds 100% USD ' Profit and Loss: 365 EPC1 EPC2 EPC3 Y 1 Y2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Capacity ,3% end product, '000 tpy capacity load factor 50,0% 75,0% 100,0% 100,0% 100,0% sales price USD/unit 150 USD/ton earning revenues USD ' operating cost, at full load 50 USD/ton additional fixed cost (on unused capacity) 13 USD/ton labour cost, wages, administration USD ' depreciation 20 USD ' EBIT - Earnings before interest & taxes USD ' Senior Loans: 50% ECA Finance tranche (3 + 8 years) USD '000 ECA flat fee for international private sponsors, and repayments 10,00% outstanding loan (incl. Fee financed), at end of year USD ' outstanding, average during the year USD ' fixed interest cost (CIRR USD flat, 8 yr, rate valid until 14oct2011) 2,02% USD ' Senior Loans: 50% Project Finance (3+8 yr) USD ' outstanding, project finance loan, at end of year USD ' outstanding, average during the year USD ' ,0% risk margin (no ECA fee) + 0,5% 6MLibor (1,4% for fixed on 5 yr avg) 5,50% USD ' EBT - Earnings before taxes = EBIT minus interest cost corporate tax 20,0% EAT Earnings After Taxes = Return on Equity = Dividends USD ' Free Cashflow, for debt service (EAT+depreciation+interests) USD ' Debt Service = repayments+interests USD ' excess EUR ' Debt Service Cover Ratio DSCR (Cashflow/Debt Service) 3,6 1,5 2,6 3,8 3,9 4,0 15 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

16 When changing key parameters how is Debt Service Cover Ratio affected? Basecase Assets higher Equity lower Capacity higher Start better Sales lower operating cost higher ECA higher Sales Finance higher EPC Value 100% 110% Other assets 10% 30% Equity (incl. Mezzanine) 40% 30% Capacity 4000 tpd 5000 tpd load factor sales price, net 150,00 120,00 operating cost at full load 50,00 70,00 Export Credit Agency fee 10,0% 13,0% Export Credit interest 2,02% 3,26% Project finance margin 5,50% 7,00% DSCR first year 1,5 1,3 1,3 1,8 2,1 1,0 1,1 1,5 1,4 DSCR second year 2,6 2,2 2,2 3,0 3,0 1,8 2,0 2,6 2,4 Tailor made engineering: Finance: important for operating cost important to get it 16 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

17 Target: optimize Energy efficiency and Operating Cost, help the Plant Operators via Modem. Sell the next plant in 5 years Camera KTS Voice e.g. for Preheater and Kiln in a cement plant 17 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

18 Stakeholders interests Geology: sell know how. Business Developer: Sucess Fee Investing Shareholder: upside, market share promote region, jobs, taxes, environment by Government Investment (Project Company) Contractor: know how, realize calculated profit Law Firm & Credit risk insurer: mitigate risks Bank: Funding structure, get money back on time, without hazards 18 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

19 Fertilizers, Chemical Plants Mining & Minerals Materials Handling Cement Plants Africa Sales contact Mining & Cement: 20 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

20 Summing up Sucess factors to realize Resource projects in Africa Technology tailor made for geology / Process Flow Sheet NOx, SOx, emissions, contractual reliability, total cost of ownership (CAPEX + OPEX) and technical service Balance Sheet Capacity x occupancy x prices, deduct known/unknown operating + fixed cost Cash flow and Debt Service Cover Ratio Sufficient commitment of Shareholders (in cash) German funding cost, Export programs, Development Banks and Cash Sweeps Extreme cheap CAPEX may indicate severe problems during Financial Closing, Project Completion or/and Operation & Maintenance Maximize common grounds early, with non-financing stakeholders 21 ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies

21 Uhde, Polysius, Fördertechnik Reliable + sound brands for plant/machines of ThyssenKrupp in Africa & worldwide For all climatic and geological challenges. Partnership within different political and religious vicinities. It s technology and it s people. Vielen Dank, for your attention here at IHK Frankfurt Africa Business Week ThyssenKrupp Resource Technologies