Identifying Off-Grid Diesel-Grids on a Global Scale for Economic Advantageous Upgrading with PV and Wind Power

Transcription

1 Identifying Off-Grid Diesel-Grids on a Global Scale for Economic Advantageous Upgrading with PV and Wind Power Christian Breyer, Frankfurt, September 25, 2012

2 Outline Diesel-Grids: Sparse Data Diesel-Grids: Identification and Amortization Diesel-Grids: Islands a Highly Attractive Niche Summary 2

3 Off-Grid: Diesel-Grids the higher the diesel share the more local diesel-grids can be expected 3 source: Breyer Ch., Werner C., et al., Off-Grid Photovoltaic Applications in Regions of Low Electrification: High Demand, Fast Financial Amortization and Large Market Potential, 26 th EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 5-9

4 Diesel-Parity: PV capex, Irradiation, Oil Price Key insights: current PV system prices of < 2,000 /kwp enable PV LCOE of ct/kwh cost of diesel generated power is significantly higher, if no subsidies are paid for diesel 4 source: Breyer Ch., Gerlach A., et al., Fuel-Parity: New Very Large and Sustainable Market Segments for PV Systems, IEEE EnergyCon, Manama, December 18 22

5 PV Mini-Grids: Geodata referenced Cost Analyses national diesel price + road network + solar irradiation > PV mini-grids compete with grid extension and pure diesel-grids. > Increasing distance to the national grid makes grid extension improvident. > High national diesel prices make pure diesel-grids improvedent. > Increasing distance to large trade routes leads to high transport costs for diesel. = most convenient local energy source (PV vs. diesel) With high local diesel prices and good solar irradiation in rural areas solar energy becomes the most convenient energy source. 5 source: Breyer Ch., Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K. et al., PV-based Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, study on behalf of SMA Stiftungsverbund, study is not yet published

6 PV Mini-Grids: Local Diesel Price Worldwide Electricity generation costs of pure diesel grids costs [ /kwh el ] * 6 0,02 0,10 0,10 0,15 0,15 0,20 0,20 0,25 0,25 0,30 0,30 0,35 0,35 0,40 0,40 0,45 0,45 0,50 0,50 0,75 0,75 1,00 1,00 1,25 1,25 1,50 1,50 1,75 1,75 2,00 2,00 2,25 * 1 l diesel corresponds to ca. 3 kwh el ex here PV is competitive > Costs of local energy production depend highly on the diesel price. > Subsidization and taxation of diesel have strong effects on costs. > High diesel prices call for renewable energy sources for electrification. model based on: Szabo S. et al., Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping electrification costs of distributed solar and diesel generation versus grid extension, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, source: Breyer Ch., Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K. et al., PV-based Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, study on behalf of SMA Stiftungsverbund, study is not yet published

7 PV Mini-Grids: Savings Generated by PV in Mini-Grids Cost advantage of hybrid PV-battery-diesel systems vs. Diesel difference costs electricity PV-battery-diesel to diesel [ /kwh el ] ,01 0,01 0,05 0,05 0,10 0,10 0,15 0,15 0,20 0,20 0,25 0,25 0,30 0,30 0,35 0,35 0,40 0,40 0,45 0,45 0,50 0,50 0,75 0,75 1,00 1,00 1,25 1,25 1,50 1,50 2,50 > Rural electrification based on PV-battery-diesel grids is cost-effective. > Remote areas profit intensively from decentralised energy supply. > Subsidization of diesel makes PV improvident. model based on: Szabo S. et al., Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping electrification costs of distributed solar and diesel generation versus grid extension, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, source: Breyer Ch., Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K. et al., PV-based Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, study on behalf of SMA Stiftungsverbund, study is not yet published

8 PV Mini-Grids: Economically Optimal PV share PV share in hybrid PV-battery-diesel systems optimal PV share [%] 0 0 0,01 0,01 0,10 0,10 0,15 0,15 0,25 0,25 0,30 0,30 0,35 0,35 0,40 0,40 0,45 0,45 0,50 0,50 0,55 0,55 0,60 0,60 0,65 0,65 0,70 0,70 0,75 0,75 0,80 0,80 0,85 0,85 0,90 0,90 0,95 0,95 1 > 25% to 85% PV share of energy supply is economically optimal for current diesel prices. > In areas where use of batteries is profitable, also evening- and night-hours can mostly be covered by PV, i.e. ca. 85 % PV share. > PV becomes the backbone of rural electrification. 8 source: Breyer Ch., Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K. et al., PV-based Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, study on behalf of SMA Stiftungsverbund, study is not yet published

9 PV Mini-Grids: Payback Period Amortisation of hybrid PV-battery-diesel systems vs. diesel payback period [months] > The payback period of a PV mini-grid depends highly on the local diesel price. > In many regions in Africa and South America very attractive payback periods of 5 7 years can be reached. > In very remote areas very lucrative payback periods of less than 4 years arise for PV minigrids. 9 source: Breyer Ch., Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K. et al., PV-based Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, study on behalf of SMA Stiftungsverbund, study is not yet published

10 Database RE Mini-Grids: Literature Study valuation of 117 paper referring to the topic of mini-grid (even called micro-grid or stand alone system) papers published at PV-Hybrid Mini-Grid, EU PVSEC, IEEE PVSC, Asia-Pacific PVSEC, journals 155 mini-grids found at different locations Main application of mini-grids analysed 59 public applications: national parks, lodges, oil platforms, school buildings, hospitals 8 telco applications: lighthouses, telecommunication systems, broadcasting 71 village applications: villages, small cities, settlements, farms 14 island applications: small islands (<10,000 people) Conference Talk Thursday 18:15 18:30 in Off-grid Session Variety of major hybrid mini-grid components hybrid mini-grid: PV + (wind, hydro, diesel generator) mostly with storage 10 source: Werner C. and Breyer Ch., Analysis of Mini-Grid Installations: An Overview on System Configurations, 27 th EU PVSEC, 5DO.9.6 Oral (Thursday 18:15 18:30)

11 Diesel-Grids: First Summary First key insight: we can confirm, upgrading Diesel-Grids by renewables is very profitable BUT, what do we know about Diesel-Grids? first of all, nearly nothing! Diesel-Grids are located off-grid Diesel-Grids provide very expensive electricity, if not subsidised Diesel-Grids can be upgraded by PV in any case and wind power, if suitable BUT, it is very difficult to locate and identify Diesel-Grids nevertheless, we have found a way to detect nearly all Diesel-Grids globally, and give first estimates on the amortization of renewable energy upgrades 11

13 Diesel-Grids: Identification and Amortization 13 Datasets (GIS-based) Nightlights Power Lines Power Plants Population Density Raw Material Sites Railroad Network National Diesel Prices Road Network Solar Irradiation* Wind Speed* * temporal (1h) and spatial (50 km) resolved Insight Level Diesel-Grids (location) Site relevant data Diesel-Grid LCOE (localised) PV and Wind LCOE (localised) Amortization of Upgrading (localised)

14 Evaluation Step 1: Nightlights Alle Weltkarten-Grafiken auf diese Größe einpassen, dabei die Legende unten links platzieren. Key insights: places of light emissions are detectable at least villages with some public lights are identifiable industrial sites, e.g. mining sites, can be located regions of low to moderate population density show individually identifiable sites of light emissions Sources: Version 4 DMSP-OLS Nighttime Lights Time Series. NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. US Air Force Weather Agency. Boulder, Colorado. Hijmans R. Global Administrative Database. 14

15 Evaluation Step 2: Power Lines Key insights: power lines for transport on high voltage level are taken national power grid networks are identifiable very small grids still show diesel-grid characteristics quality of database has to be checked country by country off-grid lights indicate isolated diesel-grids Sources: VMap0. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. Springfield, Virginia. Hijmans R. Global Administrative Database. 15

16 Evaluation Step 3: Power Plants Sources: Platts, UDI World Electric Power Plants data base, Washington, version of March 31 Key insights: detailed data on power plants are available power plants are located by the next city coordinates off-grid power plants are mainly oil-based many nightlights without power plants indicate missing power plants in the database mainly diesel 16

17 Evaluation Step 4: Population Density Bitte in verdoppelter Anzahl der Klassifikationen, d.h. jeweils Zwischenwerte einbauen. Einheit ergänzen. Key insights: inhabitants of villages should be quantifiable lights without population are confusing quality of dataset need to be improved Sources: Balk D. and Yetman G., The Global Distribution of Population: Gridded Population of the World Version 3 (GPWv3), CIESIN, New York, 17

18 Evaluation Step 5: Raw Material Sites Key insights: raw material sites indicate mining industry nightlights and raw material sites indicate mining in operation mining sites often powered by large diesel gensets Sources: U.S. Geological Survey (2005). Mineral Resources Data System: U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. Hijmans R. Global Administrative Database. 18

19 Evaluation Step 6: Railroad Network Key insights: mining sites and railroad network often go hand in hand Sources: VMap0. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. Springfield, Virginia. Hijmans R. Global Administrative Database. 19

20 Evaluation Step 7: National Diesel Prices Sources: GIZ, International Fuel Prices 2010/ 2011, 7 th Ed. Key insights: non-subsidised diesel prices are about ct/l oil producing countries stongly subsidise diesel prices many developing countries have rather high prices 20

21 Evaluation Step 8: Road Network Key insights: road network is a well established infrastructure road network is used for estimating local diesel prices local travel time relevant for local diesel prices mainly based on road standards Sources: VMap0. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. Springfield, Virginia. Hijmans R. Global Administrative Database. 21

22 Evaluation Step 8: Diesel-Grid LCOE Bitte Colorcode und Stufen, wie bei SMA. (Südafrika auch wieder anpassen ). Key insights: local energy costs depend highly on the diesel price subsidization and taxation of diesel have strong effects on costs high diesel prices call for renewable energy sources for electrification Sources: Breyer Ch., et al., PV-based Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, on behalf of SMA Stiftungsverbund Szabo S. et al., Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping electrification costs, Environ. Res. Lett., 6,

23 Evaluation Step 9: Solar Irradiation Sources: Gerlach A.-K., Stetter D., Breyer Ch., et al., PV and Wind Power Complementary Technologies, 26 th EU PVSEC, Hamburg Key insights: solar PV is homogeneously available resource quality ranges roughly within a factor of two many developing countries have excellent resources remote areas have no fuel supply limitation 23

24 Evaluation Step 10: Wind Speed Hier lässt sich leider nicht viel erkennen. Bitte den Colorcode wie unten anpassen, aber gerne mit dem Meer. Sources: Gerlach A.-K., Stetter D., Breyer Ch., et al., PV and Wind Power Complementary Technologies, 26 th EU PVSEC, Hamburg Key insights: good resource availability in many regions tropical regions are very limited in wind resources transport logistics are limited in remote areas small wind turbines might be favoured for diesel-grids 24

25 Final Evaluation Step: Local Upgrading Optimum Key insights: all datasets locally available operators are known for power plants LCOE optimised upgrading optimum level of results relevant for sales teams 25

27 Island Database all islands in the world of about 24,000 m² (~150x150 meter) are included in our database we know further: inhabitants, coordinates, solar and wind resources, diesel prices and nationality detailed (economic) analyses can be performed including rankings for relevant categories 27

28 Island Database: Rough Structure Population size class Number of islands Inhabitants Area [km²] total average total average <1 54, , , , , ,000 4,944 1,716, , ,000-10,000 2,233 7,326,100 3,300 1,105, , , ,130,500 30, , ,000-1,000, ,899, ,000 3,020,000 21,600 1,000,000-10,000, ,788,000 2,993,400 1,326,000 40,700 10,000, ,424,300 35,673,200 3,005, ,700 all inhabited ( 1) 26, ,637,700 25,400 9,750, total 80, ,637,700 10,073, Key insights: 32% of global islands (~80,800) of significant size are statistically inhabited (~26,200) 11% of global population live on islands ~26,200 islands with less than 1 million inhabitants accumulate a theoretical maximum market potential of more than 70 million inhabitants (1.3% of world population) hence, islands represent an important niche market, accompanied by continental off-grids 28

29 Trinidad and Tobago Reunion El Hierro Graciosa Mauritius Fiji Samoa Dominica Kodiak Island Faroe Islands Bonaire New Caledonia King Island Cape Verde Greenland Guadeloupe Kaua'i Hawai'i (island) São Tomé & Príncipe Ascension Island Fuerteventura French Polynesia St. Vincent & Grenadines Nevis Vanuatu Aruba Cyprus Martinique Falkland Islands Saint Helena Jamaica Micronesia Curaçao Amercian Samoa Mayotte Wallis & Futuna Saint Pierre & Miquelon Grenada Montserrat Guam Bermuda Solomon Islands Comoros Kiribati Tuvalu Cook Islands Timor-Leste Palau Malta Maldives US Virgin Islands Saint Lucia Antigua and Barbuda Turks & Caicos Bahamas Barbados Marshall Islands Seychelles Cayman Islands Anguilla British Virgin Islands Nauru Niue Northern Mariana Islands Saba Saint Kitts Sint Eustatius Sint Maarten Tonga Tristan da Cunha Island Database: Oil Dependency Dependency on oil - percentage of oil based installed power plant capacity (n=70) the large majority of islands in the world is strongly dependent on oil based power supply oil based power supply is very expensive, typically higher than 30 ct/kwh 29

30 RE Mini-Grids next step: Electric Vehicles (EV) Graciosa Island, Azores Archipelago Generators: PV, Wind and Diesel Batteries: Stationary and EV Demand: Stationary and EV (Ø:1.58 MW and 0.34 MW) Simulation: hourly steps for 1 year Key insights: EV might contribute a valuable storage capacity for RE mini-grids islands are best suited for combined RE and EV optimization 30 source: Hlusiak M., Arnhold O., Breyer Ch., Optimising a Renewables Based Island Grid and Integrating a Battery Electric Vehicles Concept on the Example of Graciosa Island, Azores Archipelago, 6 th European Conference on PV-Hybrids and Mini-Grids, Chambéry, April 26-27

32 Conclusions Diesel-Grids are very expensive Upgrading Diesel-Grids by Renewable Energy is highly attractive Diesel-Grids can be identified by Geodata on a global and local Level Local Cost Structure of Diesel-Grids can be estimated Upgrading Benefit of Diesel-Grids by Renewable Energy can be derived Islands are a highly attractive Niche Market Market Potential is still unclear, but very likely GW 32

33 Offers Scientific Consulting on respective topics Diesel-Grids: Identification and Amortization Islands: Detailed Data, Amortization and Ranking RE Mini-Grids: Optimized Configuration for Local Conditions High interests of co-working in respective research projects Vision behind: find pathways for 100% RE sustainable power supply understand the energy flow on a global and local level 33

34 Thanks for your attention. and in particular to Catherina Cader, Paul Bertheau, Enrico Howe, Elisa Gaudchau, Ann-Katrin Gerlach, Philipp Blechinger, Markus Hlusiak, Robert Seguin, Chris Werner and Peter Adelmann for contribution and discussion. all referenced papers can be found at or

35 Reiner Lemoine and his Action Reiner Lemoine was one of the Renewable Energy Pioniers 1978 Formation of Wuseltronik 1996 Formation of Solon Reiner Lemoine and colleagues co-founder of Wuseltronik in Berlin-Kreuzberg 1999 Formation of Q-Cells Reiner Lemoine co-founder of Q-Cells 2006 Formation of Reiner Lemoine-Stiftung (RLS) 2010 Formation of Reiner Lemoine Institut (RLI) 35

36 Global installed PV Capacity source: Werner C., Breyer Ch., et al., Global Overview on cumulative installed Photovoltaic Power, 26 th EU PVSEC, Hamburg Gerlach A.-K., Breyer Ch., et al., PV and Wind Power Complementary Technologies, 26 th EU PVSEC, Hamburg enormous market growth ahead (off-grid and on-grid), since ~50%+ of conventional power capacity base could be supplemented by PV (there is NO competition to wind power) 36

37 Load Curve Generation Load Curve Modell: macro data of countries or islands can be converted in load curves (one hourly) optimised renewable energy system adapted to load profile storage components can be well sized by knowing hourly load AND resource data 37

38 Renewable Energy Mini-Grids Mini-grids consist of at least > one energy producer, > one energy storage, > one consumer load, > one control unit and > a capacity in the range of kw - MW. Conditioned by AC-coupling, a mini-grid can easily be expanded with further producers and consumer loads, in order to react flexibly on growing needs. Three-phase loads for commercial usage can be integrated and if required a connection to the national grid is possible. 38 source: Breyer Ch., Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K. et al., PV-based Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, study on behalf of SMA Stiftungsverbund, study is not yet published

39 RE Mini-Grids: technical characteristics - storage proportionality to be confirmed average 9.1 kwh/kw 39 average ratio of storage per power per technologies: PV: 15.7 kwh/kw PV + wind: 10.1 kwh/kw PV + wind + diesel: 4.0 kwh/kw PV + diesel: 8.4 kwh/kw PV + wind PV + hydro + diesel: 5.0 kwh/kw + hydro + diesel: 1.0 kwh/kw source: Werner C. and Breyer Ch., Analysis of Mini-Grid Installations: An Overview on System Configurations, 27 th EU PVSEC, 5DO.9.6 Oral

40 RE Mini-Grids next step: LCOE optimization ex EV No EVs considered Minimum LCOE: /kwh 3.1 MW PV 3.5 MW Wind 5.9 MWh Battery Assumptions: capex PV 2,000 /kw p, capex Wind 1,200 /kw nom, capex stationary battery 150 /kwh cap, capex diesel denerator 0, fuel cost for diesel 0.35 /kwh el, other operating costs 0, lifetime battery 8 years, lifetimes PV and wind 20 years, interest rate (cost of capital) 6 % p.a., battery cycle efficiency 86 %, battery energy-to-power ratio 5 h, peak load 3 MW 40 source: Hlusiak M., Arnhold O., Breyer Ch., Optimising a Renewables Based Island Grid and Integrating a Battery Electric Vehicles Concept on the Example of Graciosa Island, Azores Archipelago, 6 th European Conference on PV-Hybrids and Mini-Grids, Chambéry, April 26-27

41 RE Mini-Grids next step: Scenario settings and results Inst. Inst. Station. Vehicle Excess Diesel Scen- Load PV Wind Battery Battery LCOE Energy Share ario MW MW MWh MWh /kwh GWh/a % A Grid B Grid+EV C Grid+EV D Grid+EV E Grid+EV Key insights: electric vehicles might contribute a valuable storage capacity for RE mini-grids islands are best suited for combined RE and EV optimization 41 source: Hlusiak M., Arnhold O., Breyer Ch., Optimising a Renewables Based Island Grid and Integrating a Battery Electric Vehicles Concept on the Example of Graciosa Island, Azores Archipelago, 6 th European Conference on PV-Hybrids and Mini-Grids, Chambéry, April 26-27