Digital (R)evolution and Demographic Change

Transcription

1 Digital (R)evolution and Demographic Change A Random Correlation and Its Potentials 3. Förderschwerpunkt Tagung Impulse und Perspektiven für Demografie Berlin, January 23 rd, 2015 Univ.-Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Sabina Jeschke IMA/ZLW & IfU Faculty of Mechanical Engineering RWTH Aachen University

2 Outline 2 I. Digital Revolution and Demographic change Megatrends change the world The connected world, and the population shift. II. A random correlation and it s potentials Two megatrends, two velocities Technological developments III. Todays examples: Handshake of Digitalization and Demographic Change How technology solves the problems of todays society. IV. Summary: Chances and challenges of digitalization

3 Demographic change Megatrends change the world 3 Energy Urbanization Education Digitalization Demographic Change Migration Health Globalization

4 Digital Revolution The connected world 4 MIT Technology Review ICD 2012

5 Demographic change Population shift 5 Aging/shrinking societies Growing societies Germany Mexico Taiwan Nigeria

6 A random correlation Two megatrends, one velocity? bn smart devices smart devices (bn) Internet of things 7,6 bn people population (bn) 8 7,5 7 6,

7 A random correlation Two megatrends, several velocities!! bn smart devices smart devices (bn) Nigeria Internet of things Germany 72 population (million)

8 Outline 8 I. Digital Revolution and Demographic change Megatrends change the world The connected world, and population shift. II. A random correlation and it s potentials Two megatrends, two velocities Technological developments III. Todays examples: Handshake of Digitalization and Demographic Change How technology solves the problems of todays society. IV. Summary: Chances and challenges of digitalization

9 A random correlation Technological development Autonomous intelligent systems 9 Google 2012 Breakthrough the Google Driverless Car 2012! Management of uncertainty: resulting from differences between procedures of humens vs technical systems changing environment and highly time-dependent processes Drones: unmanned aerial vehicles Mobile robotics in production & logistics: from stupid stationary to intelligent mobile systems Swarm Intelligence: not one but many. Festo Maternet 2012

10 A random correlation Technological development From centralized 10 Closing the loop of generations: From lot-size-one to lot-size-one The requirements of todays market correspond to those of the 18 th century. Customers demand highly customized products to a steady price. Mass production 1955 Boer/Dulio 2007 mass production Mass customization 1980 Product volume Individual customization Craft production st industrial revolution Mechanical production systematically using the power of water and steam Power revolution Centralized electric power infrastructure; mass production by division of labor Production variety around 1750 around 1900 around 1970 Digital revolution Digital computing and communication technology, enhancing systems intelligence today Information revolution Everybody and everything is networked networked information as a huge brain

11 A random correlation Technological development to decentralized lot size 1 11 Organization forms on demand individualized by client - initialized by product! Heterogenous player modeled as multi agent concept Models from biology and social sciences Basis on Autopoiesis & embodiment theory Product agitates as super-agent : Plans production and transportation steps Requests service from agents Negotiates with other products for agent-resources outside world transport unit production unit fabrication virtual service provider Daniel Ewert 2013

12 A random correlation Technological development Mobile robotics 12 Exploration robot Local perception / 3D navigation! Followed by progress in humanoid robotics From biological inspired robots to robots with human-inspired components and fully humanoid systems! Samsung 2010 Simple mobile helpers at home Focussing on isolated tasks/skills Samsung NaviBot Shadow Dexterous Hand Boston Dynamics 2012 Cheetah Robot Robonaut 2- NASA KIT, Dillmann, SFB 588 www. robohub.org

13 A random correlation Technological development energy harvesting 13! Utilizing residual energy for new/mobile applications Enabling so far stupid devices to communication and intelligence Next boom of mobile /wireless applications Intelligent infrastructure components Smart eheath devices biomedical implants Energy Harvesting is a process that captures small amounts of energy - that would otherwise be lost - as heat, light, sound, vibration or movement. Institute of Physics (IOP) BionicKangaroo (Festo) Nano Medicals / UPenn Selfpowering infrastructure Rosetta/Philae, Curiosity

14 Opportunities of digitization Technological development intelligent big data analysis 14 The Big Data analysis pipeline!!! transfers big data (many ) into smart data (meaningful data) accumulates intelligence from information fragments. is a pipeline of aggregating (artificial) intelligence. Acquistion/ Recording Extraction/ Cleaning/ Annotation Integration/ Aggregation/ Representation Analysis/ Modeling Interpretation +

15 A random correlation Technological development new human machine interactions 15 Multimodals Vital Data Speaking Typing automated speech recognition manual input Combined modus for interaction interpretation of vital data interpretation of emotions Emotions braincomputerinterface Thinking

16 Outline 16 I. Digital Revolution and Demographic change Megatrends change the world The connected world, and the population shift. II. A random correlation and it s potentials Two megatrends, two velocities Technological developments III. Todays examples: Handshake of Digitalization and Demographic Change How technology solves the problems of todays society. IV. Summary: Chances and challenges of digitalization

17 Handshake of digitialization and demographic change Smart homes Automated intelligent digitalized 17! Things having identities and virtual personalities operating in smart spaces using intelligent interfaces to connect and communicate within social, environmental, and user contexts. Internet of Things in 2020: Roadmap For The Future, 2008 Smart Living (smart grid, metering,...) high quality living based on smart grids! Ambient Assisted Living Self determined and secure aging MOHANet Digital environments and mobile robotics supporting basic needs: Shopping, daily life supply supply Communication & contact Health & health risk monitoring Cleaning & caretaking, gardening,

18 Handshake of digitialization and demographic change Smart cities - enhancing quality of life factors 18 The Century of Smart Cities: If the 20th century was the era of nations, the 21st century is the era of cities.! Idea: Intelligent, integrative, energy-efficient, infrastructure optimazation, green Basis: Digitalization, Information and communications technologies (ICT) Related terms: Green City, Sustainable City, Ubiquitous City, Eco City, Examples: SongDo/Korea, Dubai/Emirates, St. Clara/USA, Nairobi/Kenya, Europe: Dublin, Helsinki, Amsterdam, Ghent, Barcelona, Berlin, Best practises: (Lee Myung-bak, Korea, 2012) Gale International 2014 Gale International 2014 Smart City SongDo Korea Piezoelectric technology

19 Handshake of digitialization and demographic change Smart mobility - autonomous vehicles by Google 19 Software: Chauffeur Team: 15 engineers, many of whom previously won DARPA Challanges Hardware: Toyota Prius Sensors: 1GB/s, lidars, cameras, radar, Street-legal since 05/2012 for Nevada Google Car March 2012 Google Fleet Since 2012 Current field test: Fleet cruises in San Francisco area; ferrying Google employees currently tested in 6 Toyota Priuses, 1 Audi TT, 3 Lexus RX450hs Focus so far mainly: adding sensor and IT to cars of existing car manufacturers

20 Handshake of digitialization and demographic change Smart mobility: and its fast followers (selection) 20 S-Class: autonomous drive on historical route (Mannheim Pforzheim) Highways, country roads, roads in towns Sensors: mainly standard sensor technology as embedded into the cars anyway (Idea behind: 1888, Bertha Benz did the first longdistance trip by vehicle, 100 km drive, from Mannheim to Pforzheim) Stuttgarter Zeitung Volvo Drive Me 12/2013 Bertha Benz Drive 09/2013 Planed for in Gothenburg Large alliance between Volvo and Swedish government Large fleet test starting 2017 with 100 cars in dedicated streets areas Also addressing intelligent new infrastructure

21 Handshake of digitialization and demographic change Smart mobility: Car2Infrastructure Communication 21 let s have a look Communication Consumer Energy Infrastructure Health Care Manufacturing Military Robotics Transportation [CAR2CAR, 2011] and [ConnectSafe, 2011]

22 Handshake of digitialization and demographic change Smart (individualized) medicine 22! Big data for individual health treatment! Biotechnology will improve our ability to customize patient-specific strategies [ ] rather than using the "one-size-fits-all" approach. we use the emerging tools of individualized medicine answers to these common health problems. Individualized medicine is in a pivotal position in the evolution of national and global health care in the 21st century. D A Cortese, President and CEO, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, USA. IBM IBM Watson, students working side by side By 2020, doctors could face 200 times the amount of facts that a human can process to make a decision, making assistive technologies like Watson increasingly useful.

23 Handshake of digitialization and demographic change Smart advanced emergency healthcare 23 1 A man suffers a cardiac arrest and collapses, as his wearable sensor device automatically sends out an emergency call to find nearby voluntary helpers. The victim s sensory continues to publish vital parameters. 2 3 Volunteer 1 arrives on scene first, starts CPR measures and uses her Glasses to connect to a telemedical professional Volunteer 2 arrives soon after and uses his smartphone supply data from another angle A machine learning system processes all incoming video streams and vital signs to display individualized information for the telemedic as well as the volunteers on scene. Remote and social media technologies

24 Opportunities, change and challenges of digitalization Smart production decentralized and heterogeneous 24 Organization forms on demand individualized by client - initialized by product! From production LINES to production CELLS In-the-box fabrication including mobile industry robotics Close spatial cooperation of humans and robots Heterogenous teams of humans, robots and virtual agents (e.g. web services) Close interaction New communication and cooperation models New steering and control approches man/machine partnerships; Kuka lightweight robot LWR Stiehm 2014, in reference to Hewlett Packard 2013 Stiehm 2014, in reference to Hewlett Packard 2013

25 Opportunities, change and challenges of digitalization Smart Education: individualized learning with low boarders 25 IT-driven innovation anhances speed of innovation globally Resulting in new challenges for life-long learning Along with the demographic developments! New learning and techning methods!! 3D enhanced training materials (virtual/augmented reality) Do-it-yourself attitude towards personalized learning! Open access, liberalization and flexibility of education Open access to knowledge for everybody at any time Accesses for new target groups by global and virtual universities and education Virtual Theatre ala Holodeck, IMA/ZLW & IfU at RWTH Aachen University MOOC, Sebastian Thrun, Stanford/Udacity, Intro into AI (2012)

26 Outline 26 I. Digital Revolution and Demographic change Megatrends change the world The connected world, and the population shift. II. A random correlation and it s potentials Two megatrends, two velocities Technological developments III. Todays examples: Handshake of Digitalization and Demographic Change How technology solves the problems of todays society. IV. Summary: Chances and challenges of digitalization

27 Summary Digital (R)evolution and Demographic Change 27 Society Growing global population Declining populations in the west Aging populations Increasing migration streams Self-determined aging Modified education New societal models Demographic change Utilizing the opportunities Digitalization Big Data Digitalization of the world of work Enhanced human robot cooperation Advances in automation Social media data Data transparency Smart data Technology

28 Opportunities, change and challenges of digitalization The digitalization needs a change in perspectives 28! autonomy! privacy! access Open vs. closed? Reliability and trust (resulting from gap in behavior transparence)? Data protection vs. data abuse? Access to information Access to highspeed infrastructure Network neutrality

29 29 Thank you! Univ.-Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Sabina Jeschke Head of Institute Cluster IMA/ZLW & IfU phone: Co-authored by: Sabine Kadlubek M.A. Institute Cluster IMA/ZLW & IfU phone: / sabine.kadlubek@ima-zlw-ifu.rwth-aachen.de Stefan Schröder M. Sc. Institute Cluster IMA/ZLW & IfU phone: / stefan.schroeder@ima-zlw-ifu.rwth-aachen.de

30 Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Sabina Jeschke Born in Kungälv/Schweden 1991 Birth of Son Björn-Marcel Studies of Physics, Mathematics, Computer Sciences, TU Berlin 1994 NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA/USA 10/1994 Fellowship Studienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes 1997 Diploma Physics Research Fellow, TU Berlin, Institute for Mathematics Lecturer, Georgia Institute of Technology, GA/USA Project leadership, TU Berlin, Institute for Mathematics 04/2004 Ph.D. (Dr. rer. nat.), TU Berlin, in the field of Computer Sciences from 2004 Set-up and leadership of the Multimedia-Center at the TU Berlin Juniorprofessor New Media in Mathematics & Sciences & Director of the Media-center MuLF, TU Berlin Univ.-Professor, Institute for IT Service Technologies (IITS) & Director of the Computer Center (RUS), Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Stuttgart since 06/2009 Univ.-Professor, Institute for Information Management in Mechanical Engineering (IMA) & Center for Learning and Knowledge Management (ZLW) & Institute for Management Cybernetics (IfU), RWTH Aachen University since 10/2011 Vice dean of the department of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University since 03/2012 Chairwoman VDI Aachen