Foresight 101 Automotive Supply Channel s Future: Where are we headed? Presented by: Garry Golden

Transcription

1 Foresight 101 Automotive Supply Channel s Future: Where are we headed? Presented by: Garry Golden Presentation Copy:

2 Warm up & Foresight 101 Drivers of Change Taking Action

3 More of Less Change ahead? Last ten years Next ten years

4 In the News

5 Images Removed

6 A Goodyear Tire dealership in San Francisco now requires Google Glass devices to be worn by mechanics during tire installation and vehicle system repair. The shop provides customers and insurance agents with a video copy of the installation. True How do we prepare talent culture for the age of wearable technologies that might bring more transparency, accountability and assistance False

7 Applications: Transparency & Support Across the Supply Chain (e.g. Inventory; Check-in; Installation) Unique Content for Technicians & Customers

8 The Manufacturing Institute is creating a National Manufacturing Badge System for skills and achievements needed to be successful in today s Advanced Manufacturing workplace How do we apply micro-credentials to training talent and empowering enthusiasts? True False

9 The Cumulating Career Path Micro-credentials & the Future of Learning & Work

10 Badges are Not What They Appear Micro-Credentials as a Platform for Training & Learning Pathways

11 Hankook has invested in Dijain a retail startup founded by a 28-year old South Korean. The store provides customers with kits and training on 3D design, manufacturing and then supports installation. True False

12 Building Enthusiasts in an Age of Design-focused Prosumers

13 Impact of Design & Maker Culture on Manufacturers, Distributors & Retails?

14 What is a Futurist?

15 Images Removed

16 Every day I make an effort to move toward what I do not understand. - Cellist, Yo-Yo Ma

17 How do you think about the Future of an industry or regional economy?

18 Foresight 101: Four Future Scenarios Disciplined / Constrained Transformed? Continued Growth Decline / Collapse

19 Images Removed

20 Risk: Growing Gap in Changes Inbound changes (Global) vs Outbound changes (Personal) Opportunity: Foundation = Movement not an Industry Movements can thrive in an age of digital and fragmented marketplaces Imperative: Commit to Learning & Innovating Focus on understanding the why; Find people and partners to show you the how

21 : Changes Around Us Empowering Enthusiasts Data-driven Innovations Empowering Local Shops

22 Empowered Enthusiasts Research Influence & Inspiration Niche Markets / Communities Designing & Making Things Shaping Local Marketplaces

23 Demographic Transitions: Aging Boomers Millennials Grow up

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25 Aging Baby Boomers: Transforming the Economy (Again) Population By MM 65+ pop. Spending By % wealth 40% consumer spending Regional Dynamics Wellness Focus

26 Baby Boomer Strategies: Mobility = Youthful Feeling Performance Bridge to Safety & Comfort Ownership or Access? Shops as Social Places Tools for Storytelling

27 Millennials (Gen Y) Seamless & On-Demand Involve Me Data Driven, Measure More

28 Millennials (Gen Y) Apps & Membership eliminate perception of transaction Seamless & On-Demand I share data because I want you to anticipate my needs

29 Millennials (Gen Y) Involve Me: Crowd Projects

30 Millennials (Gen Y) Involve me: Sharing Economy (Performance + Fleets?) Source: Fearless Dollar

31 Millennials (Gen Y) My Phone is a Vehicle Accessory & Control Hub Show me the data Data Driven, Measure More

32 Millennial Strategies: Membership Models Crowd Projects Connected Cars + Performance = Speed & Flow Branding for Urban On-demand Fleets

33 : Changes Around Us Empowering Enthusiasts Data-driven Innovations Empowering Local Shops

34 Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation Increase in non-traditional forms of data Use analytics to influence customer behavior Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models) Use of Intelligent Assistants & Natural Language

35 Trend: Increase in non-traditional forms of data Business challenges: Increased costs for analytics Insights to drive customer engagement

36 Image & Video Analytics Scanning Social Media Find potential enthusiasts Identify brands and models See context of Performance Experiences

37 Innovations Beyond 2015 Connected Device (Internet of Things) Analytics What % of performance products will be connected? How might connected parts transform the supply chain?

38 Product Integration Strategy: Place Many Bets, Watch Many Indicators of Change Pendulums will swing: Empowered OEMs & Mfg for Mission Critical Empowered Suppliers for Behavior Focused Apps Non-Auto Industry Dynamics: Internet of Things (IoT) & Data Privacy Standards

39 Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation Increase in non-traditional forms of data Use analytics to influence customer behavior Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models) Use of Intelligent Assistants & Natural Language

40 Competitive Advantage Guiding Customer Behavior Evolution of Supply Chain & Prescriptive Analytics Prescriptive What should happen? Predictive What might happen? Descriptive What happened? Complexity of Data & Relationship Management

41 Competitive Advantage Example: Analytics to Influence Customer Behavior Prescriptive Insight Personal Spending Goals This is your budget for dinner Predictive Insight Budget & Spending Forecast This is what we think you will spend this week Descriptive Insight Transaction History This is last month s statement Complexity of Data & Relationship Management

42 Example: Analytics to Influence Customer Behavior

43 Consider Customer Life Goals with Money Management

44 What is the value of guiding customer behavior? +

45 WD Network Services Services to Mfg & Shops based on Market & Sentiment Analysis Implications for Predictive & Prescription Analytics? Shop Tools & Services Customers Look to Shops for Guidance; Technicians as Coaches

46 Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation Increase in non-traditional forms of data Use analytics to influence customer behavior Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models) Use of Intelligent Assistants & Natural Language

47 Trend: Data Models for Big Data Innovation

48 Graph Database Model for Connected Data Link Graph Interest Graph Social Graph Health Graph??? Entity (Node) Relationship Learning Graph Transportation Graph???

49 Graph Database Model for Recommendation Systems Entity (Node) Relationship

50 Graph Database Model for Customer Segmentation New Sources of Data Inputs Ability to ask new questions to expand business: Who owns x-vehicle? Who is 50+? Who purchased or installed x-part? Who Tweeted about it? Show me people like them that have not yet purchased x-part?

51 Graph Database Model for Path-finding & Logistics Hyper Efficient Logistics as a Service

52 Graph Example: Location & Path-finding for Delivery Bought startup:

53 Venture Capital is Betting Big on Graph-driven Supply Chains

54 Anticipating Trends in Data-driven Innovation Increase in non-traditional forms of data Use analytics to influence customer behavior Data models for Big Data innovation (Graph Data Models) Use of Intelligent Assistants & Natural Language

55 Popular Images of the Intelligent Assistant

56 Signal to Watch: Rise of Intelligent Assistants If you look at what Apple is doing with 'Siri,' IBM is doing with 'Watson,' Google is doing with Now, [Microsoft with Cortana ] it is clear that the most powerful technology companies are investing immense resources to make virtual intelligent assistants ubiquitous before the end of the decade. -Daniel Nadler, CEO of Kensho Developer of Warren Financial Services Intelligent Assistant

57 Signals of Change: New Era of Service & Customer Support Consumer-grade Natural Language Answer Engines & Assistants Enterprise-grade Products & Platforms *Service Platform *White Label *API for Answer Engine *Finance Industry

58 Assumption: Artificial Intelligence reshapes Knowledge Work By 2020, the 25% of WD support staff will use intelligent assistants to: improve customer support support collaboration enhance decision-making manage workflows By 2020, the 25% of web retail services will be based on natural language and use intelligent assistants

59 What is the new assumption for service work & web experiences? Online vs Offline Software-Guided or not

60 Understanding Major Eras of Computing Tabular Computing Programmable Computing Cognitive Computing Calculate Tell machine what to do Machine will learn what to do

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62 True False

63 Implications of Intelligent Assistants WD Service support could be prompted with potential answers during real-time phone conversations Shops and customers could ask questions rather than type in keyword search Shop websites could ask people questions to learn more about their problem

64 : Changes Around Us Empowering Enthusiasts Data-driven Innovations Empowering Local Shops

65 Empowering Local Shops Strategy Learn from other industries and movements who have redefined enthusiasts and support for local business

66 Strategy We All Work to Create Influential Customers Storytelling Tools & Guides to Share Experiences

67 Strategy Test Radical Business Models: Crowd Funding

68 Local Shops Build Local Community of Investors & Customers

69 Lowering Barriers to Co-ownership of Performance Vehicles + = Expanding Access to Performance Fleets

70 Strategy Local Shops Bridge Design-Maker & Performance Culture

71 Pushing Design Tools from Maker Community to Mainstream Auto Culture

72 Rethinking Co-Innovation & WD-based Fabrication

73 Private Industry: Rapid Prototypes for Nike: No Tooling or Molds Source; Gizmodo

74 Accelerated Phase of Commercialization has begun Metals-based Additive Manufacturing

75 Source of Excitement (if not viable products)

76 Bridge Performance Market & Maker Communities Retail Channels with Maker Spaces Object Scanning Open 3D Specs Hackathons Culture: Designers & Installers Pilot Radical Business Models

77 Images Removed

78 I want to become a Futurist We need to be ahead of these trends! Sign me up!! Your Job: Socializing Ideas Start a Signals Team (Social, Technology, Environment, Economy, Politics) Create Monthly or Quarterly Programs to Share Insights

79 I am not convinced by this vision of the future Not our future. Let s get back to basics. Show how futuristic scenarios can be wrong Challenge Key Assumptions Rally Existing Stakeholders to Return to a Traditional Era of Performance Markets

80 Readiness Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency Ready Social Media Somewhat Ready Adaptive Marketing Graph Marketing Data Analytics Not Ready Maker Culture Not Urgent Important Urgent Critical Urgency

81 I want to Encourage Others Interesting subjects. I want to empower my team. Support an Entrepreneurial Culture within the Company Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships Establish Programs for Risk-taking: Failfaire & Grand Challenges

82 Thank you! Garry Golden Copy of Presentation:

83 Questions, Comments, Challenges