Mining finance through the cycle in frontier countries

Transcription

1 Mining finance through the cycle in frontier countries Ignacio de Calonje Global Mining Finance Conference 12 September 2012

2 IFC Overview 2

3 The World Bank Group IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation MIGA Multilateral Investment and Guarantee Agency Est Est Est Est Role To promote institutional, legal and regulatory reform To promote institutional, legal and regulatory reform To promote private sector development To reduce political investment risk Clients Governments of member countries with per capita income between $1,025 and $6,055 Governments of poorest countries with per capita income of less than $1,025 Private companies in member countries Foreign investors in member countries Products Technical Assistance Loans Policy Advice Technical Assistance Interest Free Loans Policy Advice /Loans Risk Management Advisory Services Political Risk Insurance 3

4 Over $85 Billion Invested Since 1956 Largest multilateral source of loan/equity financing for the emerging markets private sector Founded in 1956 with 182 member countries AAA-rated by S&P and Moody s, quasi-equity, loans, risk management and local currency products Takes market risk with no sovereign guarantees Promoter of environmental, social, and corporate governance standards Resources and know-how of a global development bank with the flexibility of a merchant bank Holds equity in over 800 companies worldwide Portfolio Committed Mobilized IFC FY2010 Highlights $48.8 billion $12.7 billion $5.3 billion # of Companies 1,656 # of Countries 120 Sub-Saharan Africa 19% Middle East & N.Africa 12% Global 1% South Asia 8% Europe & Central Asia 23% East Asia and the Pacific 13% Latin America 24% 4

5 $533 Million Mining Portfolio (64% equity) 37 Projects in 23 Countries Book value as of June 2012 By Product By Region 5

6 When Does IFC Invest? Project Discovery Project Finance Mature Production Value Grassroots Exploration Senior Debts and Equivalents Quasi- / Mezzanine Time 6

7 IFC s Performance Standards International Stamp of Approval the Global Benchmark Equator Principles adopted by 70+ of the world s leading financial institutions and based on IFC s Performance Standards 7

8 IFC Investments in the Mining Sector Latin America Peru Peru Chile Venezuela Guatemala Newmont / Yanacocha $126,000,000 Senior Term & Syndicated Loan, Investor & Lender 1993 and 1999 Minera Quellaveco $59,700,000 Investor Escondida Copper $94,600,000 Senior Term Loan $15,000,000 $25,000,000 Shareholder Sub. Loan Investor & Lender 1989, 1999, 2009 Minera Loma de Niquel $65M / $50M Syndicated Term Loan $2.4 / $7.1M / Quasi- Investor & Lender 1998 and 2000 Marlin/Montana Exploradora $45,000,000 Senior Term Loan Lender 2004 Colombia Peru Guyana Argentina Argentina Greystar Resources $15,200,000 Antares Minerals (1) $18,400,000 Guyana Goldfields $20,600,000 Argentex $7,300,000 Regulus $700,000 Investor 2009 Investor Investor 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011 Investor 2010 Investor 2010 (1) As part of IFC s original investment, IFC now holds 14% in Regulus. 8

9 IFC Investments in the Mining Sector (Cont d) Africa Ghana Guinea Mozambique Burkina Faso Mozambique Ahafo $75,000,000 Senior Term Loan $10,000,000 Syndicated Loan Simandou/RioTinto $35,000,000 $150,000,000 Mozal $145,000,000 Senior and Subordinated Loan Kiaka Gold $13,000,000 Baobab Resources $5,000,000 Mandated Lead Arranger 2006 Investor 2006, 2012 Lender 1998 and 2002 Investor 2010 Investor 2009 Tanzania Cote D Ivoire South Africa Zambia Botswana SMP Gold $7,500,000 Samapleu Nickel $7,000,000 Finsch $25,000,000 Revolving Credit Facility Kiwara PLC $15,000,000 Tsodilo $4,800,000 Investor 2010, 2011 Investor 2011 Lender 2012 Investor 2009 Investor

10 IFC Investments in the Mining Sector (Cont d) Asia, MENA & Eastern Europe Krgyzstan Russia Egypt Morocco Armenia Kumtor $10,000,000 Investor 2004 Peter Hambro $30,000,000 Aricom $20,000,000 Investor 2005 and 2007 Gippsland $2,000,000 Investor 2006 Achmmach Tin $9,800,000 Investor 2010 Lydian $13,000,000 Investor 2011 Russia Asia Region China Solomon Islands Philippines Bema Gold $15,400,000 Asian Lion Fund $6,000,000 Far East Energy Corp. $15,000,000 Gold Ridge $30,000,000 Debt Mindoro Resources $4,500,000 Investor 2012 Investor 2006 Investor 2007 Mandated Lead Arranger 2010 Investor 2010,

11 Where are we in the cycle? 11

12 Plummeting Values Value of AIM Mining Universe and as % of AIM ( ) 12

13 Softer Prices Sector hit by: Concerns about global growth Slowdown in China High stocks for most metals Emerging supply growth Energy & Metal Prices (Base 2007) Industrial Commodities Prices (Base 2007) 13

14 Global Double Dipping Contrary to previous forecasts that expected pick up in 2012 and 2013, updated consensus figures have diminished growth expectations for all regions, in particular EU Weakness in developed markets is also taking its toll in emerging markets, particularly in Brazil and India Developed World GDP Growth Consensus Forecast Emerging Markets GDP Growth Consensus Forecast Source: World Bank 14

15 China s Weight China s Share of World Commodity Consumption Metals Consumption Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics China s Metal Intensity Source: World Bank, USDA, UN, Metal Statistics, IEA Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics 15

16 China - En Route for a Soft Landing? GDP Growth ( ) Real GDP and Contribution by Component (% YoY) 2012 GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts Net Exports Consumption (Household + Government) -4.0 Investment -6.0 GDP Source: IMF, China Data Online, GMFE GDP growth in 2011 remained high at an annual average rate of 9.4%. For 2012 growth is expected to slow down to around %, in line with a soft landing. High external dependence and sluggish conditions in the Eurozone are likely to hit growth negatively During Q2 2012, China s growth slowed to 7.6%, the lowest rate in three years 7 Slower global growth and tight financial conditions may continue to affect the performance of the economy in 2012 as leading indicators suggest 16

17 The Outlook Not all is Bleak Gold Copper US$/ oz 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Current Price WB Forecasts US$/ mt 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Current Price WB Forecasts Aluminium Lead 3, , US$/ mt 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Current Price WB Forecasts c/ Kg Current Price WB Forecasts Source: World Bank 17

18 Financing juniors in tough markets 18

19 Markets are Dry Mining Issuance - AIM 19

20 Explorers Choices Preserve Capital Cost cutting (reduction of overheads, etc) Delay capex programs (if not close to production) Sale of Assets Outright sale of non-core assets JVs at project level Strategic Offtakers, majors, sovereigns, etc Development finance institutions (IFC, EBRD, etc) Private Specialist Private mining / general funds Other private equity sources Unconventional Specialist convertible / mezzanine funds 20

21 Debt for Producers / Developers Pockets of liquidity still there in developing countries Commercial Bank Debt DFIs Still a lot of appetite - can often provide longer tenors, variety of financial instruments, etc Bring other elements such as E&S standards, political risk mitigation, etc ECAs Attractive conditions Often come with strategic investor 21

22 Key Elements in Raising Finance The combination of tougher market conditions and host country challenges may make it difficult for a junior company to succeed without one or more strong partners However only the better projects, with strong teams and high standards will be able to attract the right partners Apart from money, partners should help: 1. Raise standards - by strengthening management capacity (financial, technical, environmental and / or social) 2. Increase credibility / reputation give comfort to other potential investors and to host government 3. Long term view stick around even in bad times / deep pockets

23 IFC Continuing to Play Counter-Cyclical Role IFC s commitments in FY12 (US$15 billion) represented a 27% increase on FY11 commitments IFC Own Account Commitments by Region, FY10-12

24 Thank you!