Modeling and Analysis: Life Cycle Models

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1 by Gerrit Muller Buskerud University College Abstract Products and enterprises evolve over time. This presentation explores the impact of these changes on the and on the business by making (small and simple) models of life cycle aspects. Distribution This article or presentation is written as part of the Gaudí project. The Gaudí project philosophy is to improve by obtaining frequent feedback. Frequent feedback is pursued by an open creation process. This document is published as intermediate or nearly mature version to get feedback. Further distribution is allowed as long as the document remains complete and unchanged. status: preliminary draft legend automated data inputs interoperability human inputs error prone! ~3% error rate change request problem report usage context other s requirements other s life cycle context design realization

Distribution This article or presentation is written as part of the Gaudí project. The Gaudí project philosophy is to improve by obtaining frequent feedback.

2 Product Related Life Cycles individual s service production sales upgrades and options production upgrades and options sales disposal creation upgrades and options creation 2 Gerrit Muller MALCproductLifeCycle

upgrades and options sales disposal creation

3 System Life Cycle order ordering components manufacturing shipping installation using local changes, e.g. accounts procedures add option maintenance upgrade using sales shipping refurbishing shipping installation secondary use maintenance dispose 3 Gerrit Muller MALCLifeCycle

4 Approach to Life Cycle Modeling Identify potential life cycle changes and sources Characterize time aspect of changes Determine required effort Determine impact of change on and context Analyse risks how often how fast amount type performance reliability business see reasoning 4 Gerrit Muller MALCapproach

Determine impact of change on and context Analyse risks how often how fast

5 What May Change During the Life Cycle? business volume product mix product portfolio product attributes (e.g. price) customers personnel suppliers stock market application, business processes insurance company et cetera local Dutch cheese shop 5 Gerrit Muller MALCchanges

price) www.shell.com customers www.stevens.edu personnel www.nokia.

6 Simple Model of Data Sources of Changes usage context other s requirements design realization legend automated data inputs interoperability human inputs error prone! ~3% error rate other s life cycle context change request problem report 6 Gerrit Muller MALCsources

interoperability human inputs error prone!

7 Data Sources of Web Server client content preparation content web server data quality? content content content provider provider provider shop configuration e.g., staff, roles configuration e.g. resource allocation 7 Gerrit Muller MALCwebServerChanges

content content content provider provider provider shop

8 Example Product Portfolio Change Books sales info product portfolio characteristics O'Reilly Addison Wesley Springer publisher selection selection depends on business life cycle changes determined by business characteristics new books per year source: UK (1) USA(2) China(3) 206k (2005) 172k (2005) 107k (1996) 68k (1996) 101k (1994) sales WH Smith Amazon "long tail" India(21) 12k (1996) source: item 8 Gerrit Muller MALCbookExample

9 Example Customer Change internet: broadband penetration growth in Q1 '04 Q2 '04 Q2 '04 Asia Pacific total 48M 54M 12.8% China 15M 19M 26.1% India 87k 189k 116.8% What is the expected growth of # customers? What is the impact on and infrastructure? What is the impact on CRM (Customer Relation Management)? What is the impact on customer, sales support staff? 9 Gerrit Muller MALCcustomerExample

pdf What is the expected growth of # customers? What is the impact on and infrastructure?

10 Web Shop Content Update screen screen How much time/effort is needed for content updates? client client How much staff is needed? What is the impact of errors in content updates? network How many errors can be expected? What is the impact of content updates on server loads? web server network publication new content and updates content definition data base server product descriptions logistics ERP financial customer relations 10 Gerrit Muller MALCwebShopContentUpdate

network How many errors can be expected? What is the impact of content updates on server loads?

11 Web Shop Content Change Effort prepare change 1 review input select info layout&cosmetics check-in prepare change 2 prepare change n effort changes = n changes *(t prepare + t verify )+t commit verify change 1 inspect source inspect result verify change n commit changes #fte = effort changes / hours per day n changes per day effort changes 1 uur 10 uur uur #fte with t prepare t verify t commit = 4 min = 2 min = 1 min hours per day = 8 hours 11 Gerrit Muller MALCeffortContentChanges

change n commit changes #fte = effort changes / hours per day n changes per day 10 100 effort changes 1 uur 10 uur 1000 100 uur

12 Example of Client Level Changes main access through search personalization catalogue entries Up-to-date information: Bestsellers What Other Customers Are Looking At Right Now other advertizements styling: frequently updated, fashion! standard boilerplate snapshot of 12 Gerrit Muller MALCmoreChanges

Looking At Right Now other advertizements styling: frequently updated, fashion!

13 Example of Time Scale Model for Changes problem response workstation useful life MR scanner useful life clinical prototype procedural change legislation change 3 months 1 year 10 years commodity hardware and software new generation of magnets gradients detectors minor SW release major SW release 13 Gerrit Muller HMPAlifecycles

months 1 year 10 years commodity hardware and software new generation of magnets

14 Web Shop Security and Changes public internet protected production area web server screen client network screen client What is the security model? What is the impact on server loads? What is the impact on staffing? What is the impact of changes in staff? What is the impact of changes on security? data base server very secure intranet network product descriptions logistics ERP financial content definition customer relations 14 Gerrit Muller MALCwebShopSecurity

What is the impact of changes in staff? What is the impact of changes on security?

15 Web Shop Reliability and Changes new faults = average fault density * #changes severity hit probability detection probability #errors = faults f( severity, hit probability, detection probability) Jansen iso Janssen operator iso sales repr low high high high low medium 15 Gerrit Muller MALCreliability

severity, hit probability, detection probability) Jansen iso Janssen

Module Modeling and Analysis: Application and Life Cycle Modeling

Module Modeling and Analysis: Application and Life Cycle Modeling The complete course MA 611 TM is owned by TNO-ESI. To teach this course a license from Buskerud University College is required. This material