Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale County-Level Detail Appendix. September 2014

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1 Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale County-Level Detail Appendix September 2014

2 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Center for Community and Business Research at the University of Texas at San Antonio s Institute for Economic Development. The project was supported with funding from the South Texas Energy and Economic Roundtable (STEER), America s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA) and SHALE Oil & Gas Business Magazine. Any findings, conclusions, or opinions are those of the authors and not necessarily those reflected by the University of Texas at San Antonio, STEER, ANGA, or SHALE Oil & Gas Business Magazine. Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Investigator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., MSc. Researchers: Gina Conti, Maricela Diaz-Wells, Jason Hernandez, Yongsun Lee, Vincent Loeffelholz, Neeraj Ravi, John Rodriguez, Feihua Teng, Carelli de la Garza, Hector Torres, Binbin Wang, John Zhang GIS Specialist: Hisham Eid Review Assistance: Chris Clark 1

3 Contents Acknowledgements... 1 Executive Summary Atascosa County Overview of Atascosa County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 15-County EFS Area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Bee County Overview of Bee County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Bee and the EFS Area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax

4 Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in DeWitt County Overview of Dewitt County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in DeWitt and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Dimmit County Overview of Dimmit County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Dimmitt and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax

5 Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Frio County Overview of Frio County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Frio and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Gonzales County Overview of Gonzales County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Gonzales and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax

6 Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Karnes County Overview of Karnes County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Karnes and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in La Salle County Overview of La Salle County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in LaSalle and 15-County EFS Area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax

7 Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Lavaca County Overview of Lavaca County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Job Growth Comparison Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Lavaca and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Live Oak County Overview of Live Oak County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Live Oak and 15-County EFS Area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax

8 Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Maverick County Overview of Maverick County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Maverick and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in McMullen County Overview of McMullen County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in McMullen and 15-County EFS area Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns

9 Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Webb County Overview of Webb County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Webb and 15-County EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Wilson County Overview of Wilson County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Wilson and 15-County EFS Area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns

10 Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Zavala County Overview of Zavala County General County Data Population Growth Comparison Population Forecast Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Zavala and 14-county EFS area Employment Changes Employment Forecast State Sales Tax Commuting Patterns Economic Impacts in Economic Impacts in Additional Counties: Bexar County Population County Overview Population Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Jim Wells County Population County Overview Population Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison

11 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Nueces County Population County Overview Population Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area San Patricio County Population County Overview Population Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Uvalde County Population County Overview Population Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Victoria County Population County Overview Population Growth Comparison Job Growth Comparison Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area References

12 Executive Summary Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 11

13 Executive Summary This latest economic impact report on the Eagle Ford represents the 4 th installment in the series. Communities throughout South Texas continue to experience tremendous growth and stand to benefit from significant economic impacts as a result of natural gas, oil, and condensate development in the Eagle Ford Shale. Overall, oil and condensate production in the Eagle Ford has grown from 581 barrels per day in 2008 to over 1.1 million barrels per day as of June Natural gas production now tops 4 billion cubic feet per day. The Eagle Ford Shale continues to exceed expectations and currently attracts the most capital investment of any shale field in the U.S. This study assesses the economic impact of the Eagle Ford Shale for 2013, including direct, indirect and induced impacts in the 21 counties directly and indirectly involved in production. Lavaca County has been added to the geographical scope of this year s study. Also provided is an analysis of economic impacts of related businesses such as construction projects, manufacturing investments, as well as upstream, midstream and downstream impacts. Of particular note is the aspect of community sustainability. The ongoing activity - driven by energy companies and related industries - presents South Texas community leaders with a rare opportunity to ensure the long-term viability of their cities, towns and counties. As the natural gas, oil, and condensate production in the Eagle Ford continues to increase, the challenges facing community leaders are more critical than ever. Investments in infrastructure - roads, water, wastewater, K-12 education, medical facilities, etc. - are the key components that will provide the necessary foundation to ensure future sustainability of communities in South Texas. To address infrastructure investment, community leaders should be engaged with state legislators to develop systematic solutions to ensure that rural areas benefit from revenue sources such as the Economic Stabilization Fund. 1 Cities and counties that do not collect the two percent sales tax allowed by state law should consider doing so as well. The impact of Eagle Ford is far-reaching, but it will be up to community leadership to seize the opportunity. Estimates of overall economic impact for the 21-county area in 2013 top $87 billion, up from $61 billion in For 2023, the 21-county impact is estimated to reach nearly $155 billion, far higher than the $89 billion forecast for 2022 that we reported in the March 2013 economic impact study. The rationale for the upward revisions (as mentioned above) is due to the way the Eagle Ford continues to exceed expectations in terms of production. In addition, new manufacturing projects associated with the natural gas renaissance in the U.S., as well as new processing, refining and port facilities are factors driving increases in the economic impact statistics. 1 The Texas Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF) is more commonly referred to as the Rainy Day Fund and isexpected to approach $14 billion by the 2015 legislative session. Oil and gas severance taxes are currently providing the bulk of the funding for the ESF. 12

14 Scope This study examines the 15 core counties where activity is most prevalent in the Eagle Ford Shale. These counties are: Atascosa Gonzales Maverick Bee Karnes McMullen DeWitt La Salle Webb Dimmit Lavaca Wilson Frio Live Oak Zavala Additionally, this study examines 6 neighboring counties where significant activity, not including extraction, is occurring. These counties are Bexar Jim Wells Nueces San Patricio Uvalde Victoria 13

15 2013 Total estimated economic impacts For 2013, the oil and gas industry in the Eagle Ford is estimated to have contributed total impacts close to $72 billion in the core 15-county area, supporting almost 115,000 full-time equivalent jobs, while contributing just over $2 billion both to local governments and to the state government. The 21-county area, which includes the 15 core counties and 6 surrounding counties, is estimated to have contributed just under $90 billion in economic output, employing over 150,000 people, and provided over $2.2 billion to both the local governments and to the state government. Economic impact Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $61,470,280,412 $7,941,100,117 $2,418,234,050 $71,829,614,579 Employment, full-time 42,607 52,333 19, ,315 Core 15-county area Payroll $2,027,428,721 $1,539,076,337 $584,718,872 $4,151,223,930 Gross regional product $30,448,269,805 $4,333,962,004 $1,542,827,867 $36,325,059,676 Local government revenues $2,025,968,804 State revenue, including severance taxes $2,028,406,113 Output $70,725,115,021 $12,896,817,708 $4,135,496,654 $87,757,429,382 Employment, full-time 51,652 71,648 31, ,984 Core and neighboring 21-county area Payroll $2,707,017,870 $2,036,271,899 $896,394,413 $5,639,684,182 Gross regional product $32,992,259,490 $7,199,851,186 $2,640,560,616 $42,832,671,293 Local government revenues $2,218,877,342 State revenue, including severance taxes $2,214,664,000 Source: IMPLAN

16 2023 Total estimated economic impacts For 2023, the core 15-county area is estimated to have an economic output of over $120 billion, employ 170,000 workers, and contribute approximately $4.5 billion to the local and to the state government. The 21-county area is estimated to contribute close to $155 billion in economic output, provide approximately 220,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and supply over $4.7 billion to both local governments and to the state. Economic impact Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $104,351,566,973 $12,558,453,461 $5,980,635,393 $122,890,655,827 Employment, full-time 40,588 82,307 47, ,807 Core 15-county area Payroll $7,236,771,283 $2,334,324,666 $1,446,441,954 $11,017,537,904 Gross regional product $62,080,644,141 $6,667,762,818 $3,815,928,705 $72,564,335,664 Local government revenues $4,492,272,543 State revenue, including severance taxes $4,526,209,986 Output $124,759,808,465 $21,452,588,557 $8,261,973,466 $154,474,370,488 Employment, full-time 42, ,699 64, ,406 Core and neighboring 21-county area Payroll $7,643,159,428 $3,835,633,784 $2,117,833,257 $13,596,626,469 Gross regional product $66,802,464,206 $11,821,872,891 $5,271,076,088 $83,895,413,184 Local government revenues $4,742,969,499 State revenue, including severance taxes $4,770,092,567 Source: IMPLAN 15

17 Atascosa County Overview of Atascosa County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 16

18 General County Data In 2013, much of the economic development in Atascosa has centered in Pleasanton. In order to service Eagle Ford Clients in the shale region, Houston-based FlexSteel Pipeline Technologies, Inc., opened a 6,000 sq. ft. service center. The facility rests on two acres of land and supports four employees. 2 Pipe distributor, ISCO Industries Inc., out of Louisville, KY, also opened a 4,000 sq. ft. facility in Pleasanton, supplying leak- and corrosion-resistant, polyethylene pipe products. 3 In order to supply the millions of gallons of water required for the hydraulic fracturing process, the water-transfer firm, RCW Energy Services, opened an office in Pleasanton, a capital investment that increased its payroll in the area in addition to the allocation of new pipes, pumps, and storage equipment. 4 Other projects were announced in 2013 demonstrated new opportunities for other firms. With the influx of new hires by oil, trucking, and pipeline companies for Eagle Ford projects, there is a subsequent demand comprehensive background checks, including drug and alcohol testing, as a means to prevent on-field injuries. This need convinced the Greenville, South Carolina-based ARCpoint Labs to open of a new office in Pleasanton. 5 In November 2013, the Phoenix Hospitality Group announced the construction of a 70- acre, multi-family housing development, slated for completion in the second quarter of H.E. Butts Grocery Co. announced an expansion to the Pleasanton location. Once completed in August 2014, the project would double the size of the existing store. 7 Atascosa, a Texan county in the Eagle for Shale region consists of a total population of 46,446 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 10,704 people Atascosa, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 46,446 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 10,704 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $30,238 is the average per capita personal income. Population 46,446 Per Capita Personal Income 30,238 Total Employment 10,704 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 2 Nowlin, Sanford. FlexSteel opens pipeline-supply facility in Pleasanton to service Eagle Ford clients. San Antonio Business Journal. Nov. 18, Nowlin, Sanford. ISCO Industries opens pipe distribution facility South of San Antonio. San Antonio Business Journal. Nov. 22, Nowlin, Sanford. RCW Energy pumps up capital spending in Eagle Ford, other Texas plays. San Antonio Business Journal. September 23, Aldridge, James. ARCpoint Labs targeting Eagle Ford firms for employment screenings. San Antonio Business Journal. Jan. 8, Silva, Tricia Lynn. Phoenix Hospitality Group broadens geographic reach. San Antonio, Business Journal. November 29, Thomas, Mike W. H-E-B expanding store in Pleasanton. San Antonio Business Journal. August 1,

19 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Similarly, Atascosa County also has been steadily increasing; it holds a 17 percent increase in population. Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 18

20 Population Forecast The following table projects Atascosa County s population from Atascosa County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a steady annual increase of 10,165 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,076 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 19

21 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison All three areas saw an increase, followed a sharp drop in 2008, with Atascosa falling as much 16 percent in Despite the decrease in 2009, in 2013 Atascosa experienced a net increase of 41 percent. The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 20

22 Job Growth Comparison All the three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady decline until 2010 when Atascosa County spiked and continued their increase to their current mark of 36 percent. The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Population Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 21

23 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 15-County EFS Area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Atascosa County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Atascosa s peaking at 4.29 in The 15-County EFS area s location quotient has been steadily rising to 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

24 Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

25 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Atascosa county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Construction with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Other Services, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 9,328 12,955 3, % Natural Resources and Mining 863 1, % Construction 558 1,774 1, % Manufacturing % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 2,136 3, % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services 3,134 2, % Leisure and Hospitality 650 1, % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified Source: Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

26 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Atascosa County will experience in 2023 an increase of 2,832 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,374 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

27 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts When analyzing the smoothed data series for sales tax for Atascosa County from 2002 to 2013, we can see that the upward trend began in In just over two years, Atascosa County has seen a boom in sales tax, and as a result the amount subject to tax has risen from $60 million to $145 million in the fourth quarter of 2013, for an increase of $85 million. This is in contrast to just a $20 million increase in the previous nine years. 26

28 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Atascosa County. Out of the 14,959 persons living in this County, only 3,767 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 74.8% of the population of Atascosa is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 8, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 4, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 3, % Living in the Selection Area 14, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 11, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 3, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 27

29 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Atascosa County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $3,309 million, the total gross county product was $1, million, a total of 5,682 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $103 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $2, $ $92.46 $3, Employment Full-Time 1,922 3, ,682 Payroll $91.28 $65.31 $21.33 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $1, $ $59.82 $1, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

30 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Atascosa County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 12,796 jobs will be created; the county output will be $6,922 million, over $4,381 million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $254 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $5, $1, $ $6, Employment Full-Time 2,028 7,890 2,878 12,796 Payroll $ $ $87.22 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $3, $ $ $4, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

31 Bee County Overview of Bee County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 30

32 General County Data Bee County also experienced an influx of capital investment. In addition to the nearly $41 million in well construction, the City of Beeville received new permits for the construction of 330 homes, totaling $75 million. Beeville received an additional 19 construction permits valued at $2.5 million dollars. 8 Bee County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 32,527 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 9,356 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $26,697 is the average per capita personal income. Population 32,527 Per Capita Personal Income 26,697 Total Employment 9,356 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 8 Don Frizzell, Beeville Building Inspector, July 10,

33 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Similarly, Bee County also has been steadily increasing; it holds a 17 percent increase in population. Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 32

34 Population Forecast The following table projects Bee County s population from Bee County is projected by the year 2023, to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a slow annual increase of 2,072 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,933 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 33

35 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, followed a sharp drop in The EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Bee County s increase in NRM employment was slow until a spike saw the net increase from 16 percent in 2012 to 36 percent in Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 34

36 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady decline until 2010 when Bee County spiked and continued their increase to their current mark of 36 percent. The EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 35

37 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Bee and the EFS Area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Bee County and the EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Bee s rising to The EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 36

38 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

39 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2012, for Bee county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was manufacturing with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Financial Activities, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 8,472 9,689 1, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 1,546 1, % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services 2,573 2, % Leisure and Hospitality 761 1, % Other Services % Public Administration - 1,733 1,733 - Unclassified Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

40 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Bee County will experience in 2023 an increase of 3,279 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,515 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

41 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts If we take a look at Bee County s state tax data, the fluctuating smoothed data series jumps out first. After a series of gains and losses from 2002 to 2010, it ended up being back at $40 million. This was followed by a steady spike, as the amount of state tax more than doubled in just less than three years from $40 million to $80 million in the fourth quarter of

42 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Bee County. Out of the 10,165 persons living in this County, only 3,097 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 69.5% of the population of Bee is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 5, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 2, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 3, % Living in the Selection Area 10, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 7, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 3, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 41

43 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Bee County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $382 million, the total gross county product was $140 million, a total of 1,186 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $5 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $ $ $33.98 $ Employment Full-Time ,186 Payroll $13.67 $31.23 $8.86 $53.77 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $42.24 $75.66 $22.28 $ Total Local Revenues $5.84 Estimated County Revenue $

44 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Bee County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 1,991 jobs will be created; the county output will be $1,509 million, over $333 million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $14 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $1, $ $61.52 $1, Employment Full-Time 122 1, ,991 Payroll $19.03 $61.71 $16.02 $96.76 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $ $40.35 $ Total Local Revenues $14.29 Estimated County Revenue $

45 DeWitt County Overview of Dewitt County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 44

46 General County Data In October 2013, Houston-based Kinder Morgan Energy announced a $74 million extension of its selftitled Kinder Morgan Crude Condensate (KMCC) pipeline from DeWitt County to Gonzales County. The majority of this project, approximately $65.8 million, would be based in DeWitt County alone. 9 Much of the housing development centers at Cuero, Texas. In 2013, three motel units opened in the city: a 51- room America Best Value Inn ($2.7 million), 10 a 77-room Holiday Inn Express ($4.6 million), 11 and a 42- guest room Hotel Texas. Austin-based Cuero DMA Development Company, LLC constructed a $3.2 million, 60-unit apartment complex. 12 The City of Cuero also approved 35 housing permits for $4.5 million and four commercial permits valued at $6.2 million. 13 ERF Wireless, a broadband provider based out of League City, Texas, upgraded its coverage in the Eagle Ford Shale area, particularly in Cuero. The year also saw the construction of new Chisholm Trail Heritage Museum. DeWitt County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 20,465 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 7,365 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $34,727 is the average per capita personal income. Population 20,465 Per Capita Personal Income 34,727 Total Employment 7,365 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 9 Gebrekidan, Salam. Kinder Morgan to build an extension to Eagle Ford pipeline. Reuters. October 9, Retrieved from: 10 Nowlin, Sanford. Two new hotels going up in Cuero to provide Eagle Ford lodging. San Antonio Business Journal. September, 18, Ibid. 12 City of Cuero Regular City Council Meeting. January 22, Randall Malik (October 21,2013) 45

47 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. DeWitt County s population growth has been steady, never rising or falling by more than two percent over the eleven year period. Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 46

48 Population Forecast The following table projects Dewitt County s population from DeWitt County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see somewhat of an increase of 1,005 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,102 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 47

49 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. DeWitt County followed the pattern of the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas until 2010, when it increased rapidly to 310 percent in 2012, and has slowed the increase slightly as in 2013; the employment growth in NRM sits at 334 percent. Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 48

50 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady decline until 2010 when DeWitt County spiked and continued is increase to 12 percent in 2012, which was followed by a slight decrease to its current net increase of 11 percent. The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 49

51 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in DeWitt and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both DeWitt County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with DeWitt s rising to The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment an d Wages data, from 2001 to

52 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

53 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for DeWitt county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Natural Resources and Mining with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Other Services, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 6,333 7,447 1, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing 897 1, % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 986 1, % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services 2,001 1, % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

54 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Dewitt County will experience in 2023 an increase of 1,702 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,192 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

55 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts When examining the state tax numbers from DeWitt County, one notices the giant increase once again in This is preceded by a steady gain from 2002 to 2008, followed by a sharp drop during the global economic crisis. The rise from 2010 to 2013 was from $23 million to $66 million in the fourth quarter of

56 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Dewitt County. Out of the 7,411 persons living in this County, only 2,767 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 62.70% of the population of Dewitt is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 6, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 3, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 2, % Living in the Selection Area 7, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 4, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 2, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 55

57 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on DeWitt County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $ 4,947 million, the total gross county product was $ 2,391 million, a total of 9, 407 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $ 134 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $4, $ $ $4, Employment Full-Time 3,188 4,922 1,297 9,407 Payroll $ $ $33.60 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $1, $ $ $2, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

58 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on DeWitt County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 13,152 jobs will be created; the county output will be $8,373 million, over $4,678million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $295 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $6, $1, $ $8, Employment Full-Time 2,675 7,614 2,864 13,152 Payroll $ $ $74.20 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $3, $ $ $4, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

59 Dimmit County Overview of Dimmit County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 58

60 General County Data St. Louis-operated Graybar opened to new branches in Asherton and Carrizo Springs, Texas in Dimmit County. Graybar is a national supply chain management and logistics provider. 14 In 2013, 6 singlefamily homes were constructed valued at $5.8 million. 15 Dimmit County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 10,461 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 4,798 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $34,379 is the average per capita personal income. Population 10,461 Per Capita Personal Income 34,379 Total Employment 4,798 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 14 Aldridge, James. Graybar expanding out to Eagle Ford Shale region. San Antonio Business Journal. March 8, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 59

61 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Dimmit County s population growth has been fairly steady throughout, with a steady increase over the last 2 years, reaching a net increase of 4 percent. Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60

62 Population Forecast The following table projects Dimmit County s population from Dimmit County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a steady annual increase of 1,162 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,158 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 61

63 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Dimmit County was on a slight increase until 2010, when it increased rapidly to 361 percent in Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 62

64 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady decline until 2010 when Dimmitt County spiked and continued its huge increase to 89 percent in The 15- County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 63

65 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Dimmitt and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Dimmitt County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Dimmitt s rising to in In 2012, it stands at The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 64

66 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

67 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Dimmit county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was manufacturing with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Professional and Business Services, with a -100 percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 2,901 5,924 3, % Natural Resources and Mining 527 1,640 1, % Construction % Manufacturing % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 464 1, % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

68 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Dimmit County will experience in 2023 an increase of 1,273 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,404 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

69 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Dimmit County s data clearly shows the impact of the Eagle Ford Shale drilling. Their local economy was fairly stagnant until the middle of 2010, when a major spike in the amount of state tax levied. In that time, the tax paid increased more than five-fold, from $13 million in 2010 to $56 million in the fourth quarter of

70 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Dimmit County. Out of the 2,724 persons living in this County, only 1,172 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 57% of the population of Dimmit is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 3, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 2, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 1, % Living in the Selection Area 2, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 1, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 1, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 69

71 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Dimmit County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $8,552 million, the total gross county product was $4,529 million, a total of 5,970 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $253 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $7, $ $ $8, Employment Full-Time 0 4,392 1,578 5,970 Payroll $ $ $57.57 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $3, $ $ $4, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

72 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Dimmit County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 17,404 jobs will be created; the county output will be $14,441million, over $9,000million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $560 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $12, $1, $ $14, Employment Full-Time 5,491 7,842 4,071 17,404 Payroll $ $ $ $1, Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $7, $ $ $9, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

73 Frio County Overview of Frio County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 72

74 General County Data The cities of Pearsall and Dilley in Frio County has benefitted from the Eagle Ford Shale play development. Both Matrix Builder and 4 th Dimension Builders, both based in Houston, completed a $2.7 million and a $1.5 million commercial hotel projects, respectively. Other commercial developments include a $1.5 office and storage facility and a $380,000 shopping strip. 16 The influx of capital investments into Frio has led to the expansion of public infrastructure projects. The city of Pearsall announced the opening of a new 5,000 sq. ft. police station valued at $1.1 million, 17 the new $397,775 construction for the Frio County Community Center, and Pearsall ISD made $1.85 million of renovation to an elementary school. 18 The City of Dilley also instituted new public works projects. Dilley constructed a new $2.8 million Municipal Water Treatment system, a new $100,000 water well, $1.5 million for road pavement, and $800,000 renovation for sewer improvements. 19 Frio County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 17,702 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 5,954 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $25,836 is the average per capita personal income. Population 17,702 Per Capita Personal Income 25,836 Total Employment 5,954 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 16 Trevino, Jose G. October 29, Robertson, Marc. Pearsall breaks ground for new police station. Frio-Nueces Current. February 21, Trevino, Jose G. October 29, Perez, Noel. City Administrator for City of Dilley, TX. January 27,

75 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Frio County s population growth has been steadily rising to a 9 percent increase in Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 74

76 Population Forecast The following table projects Frio County s population from Frio County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a steady annual increase of 2,574 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,791 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 75

77 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Frio County steadily declines 12 percent until 2009, when the employment in natural resources and mining increased to 11 percent in This was followed by a huge spike to 72 percent in 2012, upon when there was a decline to a net increase of 44 percent in Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 76

78 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, when Frio County spiked and continued its steady increase to 39 percent in 2012, upon which it has stayed steady. The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 77

79 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Frio and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Frio County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Frio s increasing to The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 78

80 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

81 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Frio Maverick county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Natural Resources, with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Manufacturing, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 85,081 93,779 8, % Natural Resources and Mining 1,374 2,840 1, % Construction 2,814 2, % Manufacturing 1, % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 26,369 29,568 3, % Information % Financial Activities 3,983 3, % Professional and Business Services 5,428 7,769 2, % Education and Health Services 27,837 28, % Leisure and Hospitality 8,155 9,893 1, % Other Services 1,306 1, % Public Administration 6,035 6, % Unclassified % Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

82 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Frio County will experience in 2023 an increase of 1,561 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,515 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

83 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts The data for Frio County shows only a slight fluctuation from 2002 to Following the pattern shown by several of the other counties, in late 2010, the boom in state tax occurred. The amount subject to state tax increased from $20 million in quarter three of 2010 to $70 million by the fourth quarter of 2013, nearly tripling their numbers in just less than three years. 82

84 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Frio County. Out of the 6,240 persons living in this County, only 1,513persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 75.80% of the population of Frio is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 4, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 2, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 1, % Living in the Selection Area 6, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 4, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 1, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 83

85 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Frio County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $684 million, the total gross county product was $379 million, a total of 757 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $20 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $ $ $28.43 $ Employment Full-Time Payroll $23.84 $23.01 $6.35 $53.20 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $84.71 $18.38 $ Total Local Revenues $20.10 Estimated County Revenue $

86 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Frio County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 1,704 jobs will be created; the county output will be $1,196million, over $767 million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $44 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $ $ $58.44 $1, Employment Full-Time ,704 Payroll $66.20 $36.40 $13.04 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $ $37.75 $ Total Local Revenues $44.53 Estimated County Revenue $

87 Gonzales County Overview of Gonzales County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 86

88 General County Data Gonzales County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 20,045 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 6,728 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $31,270 is the average per capita personal income. Population 20,045 Per Capita Personal Income 31,270 Total Employment 6,728 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 87

89 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Gonzales County s population growth has been steadily rising to a seven percent gain in Source: U.S. Census Bureau Comparative Population Growth 88

90 Population Forecast The following table projects Gonzales County s population from Gonzales County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a slow increase of 2,589 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,396 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 89

91 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Gonzales County steadily decreased in employment in natural resources and mining until a slight increase in 2011, which was followed by a decrease to a net loss of 6 percent in Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 90

92 Job Growth Comparison Gonzales County s employment decreased, finally reaching a net positive gain in 2011, increasing to a three percent gain in 2012, followed by a slight decrease to just once percent in 2013.The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 91

93 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Gonzales and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Gonzales County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Gonzales s rising to 7.40 in 2010, and in 2012, falling slightly to The 15- County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 92

94 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

95 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Gonzales county area, there was an 8.02 percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Leisure and Hospitality with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Information, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 6,408 6, % Natural Resources and Mining 1,105 1, % Construction % Manufacturing 1,069 1, % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 1,347 1, % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services 1,556 1, % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

96 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Gonzales County will experience in 2023 an increase of 1,561 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , ,208 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

97 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Gonzales County saw their state tax totals spike between $18 and $30 million between the years of 2002 to Following the economic collapse, the County saw a slight decrease to $24 million in This was followed by the boom, more than doubling their numbers to a total of $53 million at the end of the 2013 fourth quarter. It should be noted that there was a drop in late However this was followed by a spike in the very next quarter. 96

98 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Gonzales County. Out of the 8,449persons living in this County, only 2,872 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 66% of the population of Gonzales is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 5, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 2, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 2, % Living in the Selection Area 8, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 5, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 2, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 97

99 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Gonzales County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $7,463 million, the total gross county product was $3,916 million, a total of 11,561 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $234 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $6, $ $ $7, Employment Full-Time 4,372 5,714 1,475 11,561 Payroll $ $ $39.08 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $3, $ $ $3, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

100 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Gonzales County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 17,591 jobs will be created; the county output will be $13,318 million, over $8,169 million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $536 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $11, $1, $ $13, Employment Full-Time 4,502 9,217 3,871 17,591 Payroll $ $ $ $1, Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $7, $ $ $8, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

101 Karnes County Overview of Karnes County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 100

102 General County Data Southcross Energy Partners extended their Bee Line pipeline into Karnes County at a cost of approximately $7.04 million. 20 Polk Operating, LLC opened a 200-acre oilfield recycling facility. 21 To capitalize on the growth in the Eagle Ford Shale, Laredo-based developed Hachar Investments constructed the Kenedy Business Park, a 29-lot development resting on 120 acres. 22 The county also saw the construction of 71 single-family homes at $12,845,710 and 12 three-or-four family housing at $1,000, Karnes County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 15,233 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 4,177 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $27,377 is the average per capita personal income. Population 15,233 Per Capita Personal Income 27,377 Total Employment 4,177 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 20 Hiller, Jennifer. Southcross Energy Partners completes Eagle Ford pipeline. MySanAntonio.com. August 5, Thomas, Mike W. Oilfield recycling facility being built to serve Eagle Ford Shale. San Antonio Business Journal. February 14, Nowlin, Sanford. Kenedy Business Park opening in the heart of Eagle Ford Shale country. San Antonio Business Journal. July 19, Source: US Census Bureau 101

103 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Karnes County s population was falling slightly three percent in 2010, and is back up to a net one percent decrease as of Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 102

104 Population Forecast The following table projects Karnes County s population from Karnes County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a very slow annual increase of 791 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,615 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 103

105 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Karnes County fell thirteen percent until 2009, when it increased rapidly to 349 percent in Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 104

106 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady decline until 2011 when Karnes County spiked and continued is increase to 123 percent in The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 105

107 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Karnes and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Karnes County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Karnes s rising to The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

108 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

109 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Karnes county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Natural Resources and Mining with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Public Administration, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 3,731 4,932 1, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 683 1, % Information N/A Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services 1,112 1, % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

110 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Karnes County will experience in 2023 an increase of 1,068 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,852 Sources: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

111 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Karnes County saw its state tax numbers hover around $10 to $15 million for the better part of eight years. In late 2010, the numbers spiked exponentially to a total of $50 million at the end of the 2013 fourth quarter. This follows a pattern seen in the more rural counties of a huge spike in their state tax numbers from 2010 to

112 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Karnes County. Out of the 6,297 persons living in this County, only 1,113 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 82.30% of the population of Karnes is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 2, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 1, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 1, % Living in the Selection Area 6, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 5, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 1, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 111

113 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Karnes County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $10,964 million, the total gross county product was $5,940 million, a total of 16,729 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $327 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $9, $1, $ $10, Employment Full-Time 6,776 7,914 2,040 16,729 Payroll $ $ $51.22 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $4, $ $ $5, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

114 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Gonzales County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 24,898 jobs will be created; the county output will be $19,616 million, over $12,158 million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $766 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $16, $2, $ $19, Employment Full-Time 6,549 13,020 5,328 24,898 Payroll $1, $ $ $1, Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $9, $1, $ $12, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

115 La Salle County Overview of La Salle County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 114

116 General County Data The City of Cotulla announced a $9 million expansion to the Cotulla-LaSalle County airport, adding 6,005 feet of runway, scheduled for completion in July Andarko Petroleum Corp. completed a $100 million Brasada Gas Processing Plant with an operation capacity of 200 million cubic feet per day. 24 San Antonio-based logistics firm, NuStar Crude Oil Pipeline LP, proposed a two-phased upgrade to their pipeline system to haul crude product from their La Salle operations. Once completed, the projects would add 100,000 barrels to its system capacity. 25 Other areas in LaSalle Worldwide Energy Consortium announced the construction of their Whitetail Refinery facility, a new $100 million located near Gardendale, Texas. Once online, the facility will have the capacity of 10,000 barrels per day and utilize the Gardendale Rail System for transportation. 26 The Lewis Energy Group also announced the construction of a new 250-acre, $11 million rail park in Encinal, TX, as crude companies turn to rail as a more efficient alternative to pipelines. 27 La Salle County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 7,109 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 2,776 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $27,326 is the average per capita personal income. Population 7,109 Per Capita Personal Income 27,326 Total Employment 2,776 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 24 Thomas, Mike W. Andarko completing construction on new Eagle Ford Shale gas plant. San Antonio Business Journal. April 1, Nowlin, Sanford/ NuStar Energy looks for interest on new Eagle Ford pipeline. San Antonio Business Journal. July 26, Dukes, R.T. La Salle County Refinery Planned Near Gardendale. EagleFordShale.com. May 20, Nowlin, Sanford. Shale plays are driving rail usage by oil companies. San Antonio Business Journal. June 7,

117 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. LaSalle County s population growth has been fairly even with the EFS area and the state, with a growth rate of 20 percent in Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 116

118 Population Forecast The following table projects La Salle County s population from La Salle County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a steady annual increase of 1,134 people. Populations Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,020 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 117

119 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. LaSalle County followed the pattern of the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas until 2009, when it increased consistently and rapidly until the current 2013 mark of 225 percent. Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) (Data from 2011 and 2012 are based on estimations made by CCBR based on and data from the Texas Workforce Commission, using an average quarterly growth rate) 118

120 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady decline until 2010 when LaSalle County spiked and continued its upward trending increase to 69 percent in The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) (Data from 2011 and 2012 are based on estimations made by CCBR based on and data from the Texas Workforce Commission, using an average quarterly growth rate) 119

121 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in LaSalle and 15-County EFS Area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both LaSalle County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with LaSalle s rising to The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.58 in Figure 4: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 120

122 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

123 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for La Salle county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Construction with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Natural Resources and Mining, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 1,675 3,399 1, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing N/A Trade, Transportation and Utilities % Information N/A Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services N/A Education and Health Services % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

124 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that La Salle County will experience in 2023 an increase of 876 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,625 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

125 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts La Salle County s data stayed relatively the same from 2002 to In 2009, they saw their numbers spike up and down, until the state tax numbers soared from $5.4 million in the second quarter of 2009 to $34 million in the fourth quarter of This is more than a 600% increase in just four years. 124

126 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in La Salle County. Out of the 1,862 persons living in this County, only 623 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 66.50% of the population of La Salle is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 1, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 1, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area % Living in the Selection Area 1, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 1, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 125

127 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on La Salle County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $9,001 million, the total gross county product was $4,755 million, a total of 8,818 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $252 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $8, $ $ $9, Employment Full-Time 6,473 1, ,818 Payroll $ $51.68 $25.78 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $4, $ $80.50 $4, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

128 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on La Salle County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 10,809 jobs will be created; the county output will be $15,876 million, over $9,891 million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $580 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $15, $ $ $15, Employment Full-Time 6,143 1,944 2,722 10,809 Payroll $1, $76.89 $76.20 $1, Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $9, $ $ $9, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

129 Lavaca County Overview of Lavaca County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 128

130 General County Data Lavaca County, a Texan county, that is now included in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 19,468 thousand people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $40,173 is the average per capita personal income. Population 19,468 Per Capita Personal Income 40,173 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 129

131 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Lavaca County s population growth has been steady, rising only three percent since Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 130

132 Population Forecast The following table projects Lavaca County s population from Lavaca County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a slow decrease of 9 people in grand total. Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,254 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 131

133 Job Growth Comparison Lavaca County experienced a steady decline in employment from 2007 to 2009, and again from 2012 to 2013 ending up with a decreased of nine percent. The 15-county EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases by seven and six percent respectively. Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 132

134 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Lavaca County rose by 18 percent until 2008, when the employment in natural resources and mining decreased by 26 percent until This was followed by a huge spike of 97 percent by Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 133

135 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Lavaca and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Lavaca County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Lavaca s increasing to The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in 2012 and Lavaca Location Quotients for NRM Employment 134

136 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

137 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Lavaca county area, there was a negative growth of percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Professional and Business Services with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Other Services, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 1,675 3,399 1, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing N/A Trade, Transportation and Utilities % Information N/A Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services N/A Education and Health Services % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

138 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Lavaca County will experience in 2023 an increase of 1,180 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,172 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

139 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Lavaca s data increased steadily from 2002 to In the first quarter of 2009, Lavaca saw their numbers spike down hitting its lowest point in The State tax numbers soared from $21 million in the first quarter of 2010 to $32 million in the fourth quarter of This is just over 50% increase in just four years 138

140 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Lavaca County. Out of the 1,862 persons living in this County, only 623 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 62.70% of the population of Lavaca is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 5, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 2, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 2, % Living in the Selection Area 7, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 5, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 2, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 139

141 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Lavaca County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $1,607 million, the total gross county product was $671 million, a total of 2,388 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $39 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $1, $ $62.96 $1, Employment Full-Time 667 1, ,388 Payroll $35.97 $36.27 $12.00 $84.25 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $87.96 $40.18 $ Total Local Revenues $39.63 Estimated County Revenue $

142 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Lavaca County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 4,000 jobs will be created; the county output will be $2,966 million, over $1,388 million will be the gross county product, and the total estimated county revenue will be $88 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $2, $ $ $2, Employment Full-Time 736 2,203 1,060 4,000 Payroll $ $64.85 $26.41 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $1, $ $88.36 $1, Total Local Revenues $88.84 Estimated County Revenue $

143 Live Oak County Overview of Live Oak County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 142

144 General County Data Howard Midstream Energy Partners, LLC built a 260-acres railroad hub at the Live Oak Railroad near Three Rivers in Live Oak. Completed in May 2013, it handles trains used to hydraulic fracturing materials and product. 28 Fifteen single-family homes were constructed at $1,664, Live Oak County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 11,664 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 4,233 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $36,016 is the average per capita personal income. Population 11,664 Per Capita Personal Income 36,016 Total Employment 4,233 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 28 Hiller, Jennifer. Howard Midstream plans new gas plant, rail hub. Fuelfix.com. February 11, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 143

145 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Live Oak County s population growth steadily decreased until 2009 by five percent. Since then, it has increased by two percent. Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 144

146 Population Forecast The following table projects Live Oak County s population from Live Oak County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a slow increase of 203 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,734 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 145

147 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Live Oak County followed the pattern of the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas until 2009, when it increased rapidly and consistently, with the employment growth in natural resources and mining at a huge increase to 442 percent since Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 146

148 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady decline until 2009, when Live Oak County spiked and continued is increase to 49 percent in 2012, which was followed by a slight decrease to its current net increase of 46 percent. The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 147

149 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Live Oak and 15-County EFS Area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Live Oak County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Live Oak s rising sharply to in The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 148

150 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

151 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Live Oak county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Natural Resources and Mining with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Public Administration, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 2,858 4,502 1, % Natural Resources and Mining 262 1,575 1, % Construction % Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

152 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Live Oak County will experience in 2023 an increase of 800 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,876 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

153 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts In 2002, Live Oak recorded just over $9 million in state tax, with only a marginal increase to $12 million in This was followed by an increase in just two years to $54 million. However, the tax data has been fluctuating since 2011 down to $38 million in 2012, and back up to $48 million at the end of

154 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Live Oak County. Out of the 3,340 persons living in this County, only 783 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 76.60% of the population of Live Oak is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 2, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 1, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area % Living in the Selection Area 3, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 2, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 153

155 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Live Oak County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $6,954 million, the total gross county product was $2,299 million, a total of 5,097 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $92 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $6, $ $75.88 $6, Employment Full-Time 2,542 1, ,097 Payroll $ $83.10 $15.95 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $2, $ $50.02 $2, Total Local Revenues $92.26 Estimated County Revenue $

156 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Live Oak County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 2,235 Live Oak County jobs were supported by the 15-county area under analysis, in addition to $8,724 million in output as well as over $3,526 million gross county product. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $8, $ $ $9, Employment Full-Time 2,235 2,872 1,225 6,332 Payroll $ $ $30.88 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $3, $ $ $3, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

157 Maverick County Overview of Maverick County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 156

158 General County Data According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Maverick County saw the addition of new housing in the area. In 2013, 68 single-family homes were erected at a value of $5,460,245. Construction also included multifamily housing such as 10, two-family structures at $798,485; 4 three-or-four family homes at $180,000; and 31 five-or-more housing structures at $2,071, Maverick County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 56,365 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 16,705 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $22,188 is the average per capita personal income. Population 56,365 Per Capita Personal Income 22,188 Total Employment 16,705 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 30 Ibid. 157

159 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Maverick County s population growth has been steadily rising at a slightly slower rate than the EFS area and the state of Texas. After leveling out in 2011, the population growth for Maverick County as of 2012 sits at sixteen percent. Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 158

160 Population Forecast The following table projects Maverick County s population from Maverick County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a big increase of 11,637 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,895 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 159

161 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Maverick County slightly increased its employment in natural resources and mining until another sharp spike in By 2012, the increase was at 41 percent. This was followed by a sharp decline in 2013, falling to eighteen percent. Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 160

162 Job Growth Comparison Maverick County consistently increased its employment percentage to a net mark as of 2013 of thirteen percent. The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 161

163 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Maverick and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for Maverick County have consistently been less than one since The location quotient for Maverick County has fluctuated from 0.59 to 0.77, one of the few counties in the 15-County EFS area below one. The 15-County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 162

164 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

165 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Maverick county area, there was a 6.60 percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was manufacturing, with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Construction, with a percent change. Area Employment Emp Chg Pct Chg Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 16,300 17,376 1, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 3,481 3, % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services 7,194 7, % Leisure and Hospitality 1,745 2, % Other Services % Public Administration 1,560 1, % Unclassified - - N/A Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

166 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Maverick County will experience in 2023 an increase of 5,462 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,028 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

167 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Maverick County, whose County seat is Eagle Pass, has one of the more interesting graphs in the Eagle Ford Shale region. They saw constant fluctuation in their state tax numbers, rising and falling, with the greatest increase occurring between 05 to 07 when they rose from $50 million to $93 million. Maverick County is also unique in that their starting numbers in 2002 were extremely high when compared to the other counties in the region. In 2002, Maverick County was already paying $55 million in state taxes. After fluctuation from quarter to quarter, year to year, the state tax as of the fourth quarter of 2013 stands at $114 million. 166

168 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Maverick County. Out of the 19,467 persons living in this County, only 10,105 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 48.10% of the population of Maverick is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 14, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 4, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 10, % Living in the Selection Area 19, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 9, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 10, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 167

169 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Maverick County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $175 million, the total gross county product was $98 million, a total of 420 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $5 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $ $47.02 $18.15 $ Employment Full-Time Payroll $3.58 $6.52 $4.34 $14.44 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $59.66 $27.06 $11.71 $98.43 Total Local Revenues $5.56 Estimated County Revenue $

170 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Maverick County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 80 Maverick County jobs were supported by the 15-county area under analysis, in addition to $200 million in output as well as over $128 million gross county product. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $ $69.43 $33.48 $ Employment Full-Time Payroll $14.71 $9.18 $7.99 $31.89 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $39.47 $21.60 $ Total Local Revenues $11.69 Estimated County Revenue $

171 McMullen County Overview of McMullen County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 170

172 General County Data Energy firms continued to invest in McMullen County. Southcross Energy Partners invested $4.9 million for a 16-inch, 3.5-mile pipeline in McMullen County as part of this expansion of the Bee Line pipeline. 31 Another firm, Sanchez Energy, announced a two-phased development in the county. In 2013, Sanchez plans invest $420 million in the construction of 40 net wells with another $700 million slated in 2014 for 76 net wells. 32 McMullen County expanded their public infrastructure to accommodate the influx of energy investments. The McMullen County Independent School District instituted the $18 million Phase III project for a new building and renovations for Mission High School. Calliham, Texas initiated the construction of a waste water treatment plant. McMullen County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 726 hundred people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 465 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $52,810 is the average per capita personal income. Population 726 Per Capita Personal Income 52,810 Total Employment 465 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 31 Hiller, Jennifer. Southcross Energy Partners completes Eagle Ford pipeline. MySA.com. August 5, Dukes, R.T. Sanchez Energy Adds Eagle Ford Acreage In McMullen County From Rock Oil $220 Million. Shalemarkets.com. September 9,

173 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. McMullen County s population has been in a rocky decline since 2001, with a steady drop from 2007 to As of 2012, its net population growth since 2001 stands at negative eleven percent. Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 172

174 Population Forecast The following table projects McMullen County s population from McMullen County is projected to see an overall increase in population in Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a minimal increase of 31 people in that 13 year span. Population Forecast From Year Population Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 173

175 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. McMullen County followed the pattern of the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas until 2010, when it increased rapidly to 321 percent in Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 174

176 Job Growth Comparison McMullen County had a steady increase of 28 percent by 2010, when the employment growth skyrocketed to its current 2013 mark of a net gain of 163 percent. The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 175

177 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in McMullen and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotient for both McMullen County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with McMullen s decreasing from in 2008 to in County EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 176

178 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

179 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for McMullen county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Trade Transportation, and Utilities, with a percent increase, and the industry with the least growth in employment was Financial Activities, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction N/A Manufacturing N/A Trade, Transportation and Utilities % Information N/A Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services N/A Education and Health Services N/A Leisure and Hospitality N/A Other Services N/A Public Administration % Unclassified N/A Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

180 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that McMullen County will experience in 2023 an increase of 60 jobs. Year Total Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

181 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts McMullen County follows a similar patter shown by some of the other counties in the Eagle Ford Shale region. However, the numbers started in 2002 extremely low when McMullen County only paid out 311 thousand dollars. This number rose slowly with fluctuation until 2011, when they saw a dynamic increase. As of the fourth quarter of 2013, McMullen County pays is subject to 12.3 million dollars. In eleven years, McMullen County s numbers have increased by 47 times. 180

182 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in McMullen County. Out of the 603 persons living in this County, only 35 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 94.20% of the population of McMullen is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside % Employed and Living in the Selection Area % Living in the Selection Area % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside % Living and Employed in the Selection Area % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 181

183 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on McMullen County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $8,276 million, the total gross county product was $4,374 million, a total of 9,109 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $240 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $7, $ $82.87 $8, Employment Full-Time 5,639 2, ,109 Payroll $ $64.84 $11.48 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $4, $ $53.67 $4, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

184 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on McMullen County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 5,613 McMullen County jobs were supported by the 15-county area under analysis, in addition to $13,938 million in output as well as over $8,896 million gross county product. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $13, $ $ $14, Employment Full-Time 5,613 4,219 1,593 11,425 Payroll $1, $93.54 $34.70 $1, Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $8, $ $ $9, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

185 Webb County Overview of Webb County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 184

186 General County Data Capital investments in Webb County continued to center at Laredo, Texas. Howard Midstream Energy Partners, LLC, announced the construction of a new $50 million natural gas plan. Dallas-based AT&T Inc. added new towers to expand their 4G LTE network outreach to Laredo. 33 Additionally, Laredo was the site for the new 7,300 sq. ft., $3.5 million South Texas Border Intelligence Center. Commissioned by the U.S. General Services Administration and built by Brasfield & Gorrie, the new administrative and communication office building is set house 20 government agencies from both the United States and Mexico. Laredo was the center of other capital investments. According to the Laredo Development Foundation, the City of Laredo experienced $415 million in new building permits, including $119 million in new single-family housing, $29 million in new multi-family housing, $72 million in Warehouse building, and $43 million in new commercial permits. 34 Webb County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 259,172 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 90,819 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $24,985 is the average per capita personal income. Population 259,172 Per Capita Personal Income 24,985 Total Employment 90,819 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 33 Aldridge, James. AT&T expands 4G LTE network to Laredo. San Antonio Business Journal. August 7, Laredo Development Foundation, Laredo Economic Indicators. April 11,

187 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Webb County s population growth has steadily increased at the same pace, with a 29 percent gain as of Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 186

188 Population Forecast The following table projects Webb County s population from Webb County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a massive population annual increase of 74,630 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,934 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Off of the State Demographer For the State of Texas 187

189 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Webb County followed the pattern of the 15-County EFS area, rising in 2010 of hiring in natural resources and mining to the current 67 percent increase in Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 188

190 Job Growth Comparison Webb County followed the same pattern as the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas, with slightly lower employment percentages. After a steady increase since 2010, the employment numbers for Webb County have increased 7 percent. The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 189

191 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Webb and 15-County EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Webb County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been ranged from 0.64 to 1.03 in 2012, the only year where the location quotient was over one. The EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 190

192 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

193 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Webb county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Natural Resources and Mining with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Manufacturing, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 85,081 93,779 8, % Natural Resources and Mining 1,374 2,840 1, % Construction 2,814 2, % Manufacturing 1, % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 26,369 29,568 3, % Information % Financial Activities 3,983 3, % Professional and Business Services 5,428 7,769 2, % Education and Health Services 27,837 28, % Leisure and Hospitality 8,155 9,893 1, % Other Services 1,306 1, % Public Administration 6,035 6, % Unclassified % Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

194 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Webb County will experience in 2023 an increase of 60 jobs. Year Total Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

195 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Webb County is the most unique of all of the counties in the Eagle Ford Shale region. It contains the major city of Laredo. For this reason, the amount of gross sales subject to state tax is the highest in the region. The graph shows a constant fluctuation, spiking up and down between years. In 2002, they paid $337 million. With fluctuation, yet a constant net gain, in the fourth quarter of 2013, Webb County is subject to $684 million in state tax. 194

196 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Webb County. Out of the 78,343 persons living in this County, 62,862 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that only 19.80% of the population of Webb is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 77, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 14, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 62, % Living in the Selection Area 78, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 15, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 62, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 195

197 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Webb County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $5,008 million, the total gross county product was $2,602 million, a total of 9,870 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $132 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $4, $ $ $5, Employment Full-Time 3,375 4,744 1,751 9,870 Payroll $ $ $55.62 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $2, $ $ $2, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

198 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Webb County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 590 Webb County jobs were supported by the 10-county area under analysis, in addition to $384 million in output as well as over $198 million gross county product. The total estimated state revenue is $17 million, and the total severance tax is $9.9 million with a total of $81 million in royalties and a total of $3 million in lease payments. The drilling and completion expenditures represented $34 million; followed by oil and gas production with $405 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $6, $1, $ $8, Employment Full-Time 2,964 8,377 5,157 16,498 Payroll $ $ $ $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $3, $ $ $4, Total Local Revenues $ Estimated County Revenue $

199 Wilson County Overview of Wilson County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 198

200 General County Data Wilson County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 44,370 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 6,683 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $34,810 is the average per capita personal income. Population 44,370 Per Capita Personal Income 34,810 Total Employment 6,683 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 199

201 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Wilson County s population growth has steadily increased at the same pace, with a 33 percent gain as of Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 200

202 Population Forecast The following table projects Wilson County s population from Wilson County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a steady annual increase of 10,116 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,034 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 201

203 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 15-County EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 15-County EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Wilson County steadily decreased until 2011 by 19 percent. However, this was followed by a huge spike in employment in natural resources and mining by a whopping 193 percent. Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 202

204 Job Growth Comparison All three areas experienced an increase from 2007 to 2008, which was followed by a steady increase until 2012, when Wilson County spiked and continued is increase to nine percent in The 15-County EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 203

205 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Wilson and 15-County EFS Area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Wilson County and the 15-County EFS area as a whole have been ranged from 0.55 to 1.01 in 2012, the only year where the location quotient was over one. The EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in Location Quotients for NRM Employment 204

206 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

207 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Wilson county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Natural Resources and Mining with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Education and Health Services, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 6,511 7, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing % Trade, Transportation and Utilities 1,317 1, % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services % Education and Health Services 2,728 2, % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

208 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Wilson County will experience in 2023 an increase of 1,974 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,605 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

209 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Wilson County s state tax numbers have also been subject to some fluctuation. In 2002, they were paying just $16 million in state taxes in gross sales from all industries. This number doubled by 2004, but this was followed by stagnant growth until Since then, Wilson County has seen nearly a doubling in their state tax numbers to $63 million in the fourth quarter of

210 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Wilson County. Out of the 19,232 persons living in this County, only 3,095persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 83.90% of the population of Wilson is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 6, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 3, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 3, % Living in the Selection Area 19, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 16, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 3, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 209

211 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Wilson County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $1,444 million, the total gross county product was $658 million, a total of 2,060 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $38 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $1, $ $35.59 $1, Employment Full-Time 668 1, ,060 Payroll $33.59 $28.41 $7.01 $69.01 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $67.98 $22.98 $ Total Local Revenues $38.07 Estimated County Revenue $

212 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Wilson County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 708 Wilson County jobs were supported by the 15-county area under analysis, in addition to $2,062 million in output as well as over $1,158 million gross county product. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $2, $ $82.04 $2, Employment Full-Time 708 2, ,481 Payroll $ $52.97 $16.16 $ Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $1, $ $52.93 $1, Total Local Revenues $86.81 Estimated County Revenue $

213 Zavala County Overview of Zavala County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 212

214 General County Data Zavala County, a Texan county in the Eagle Ford Shale region, consists of a total population of 11,961 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 2,911 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $20,296 is the average per capita personal income. Population 11,961 Per Capita Personal Income 20,296 Total Employment 2,911 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 213

215 Population Growth Comparison The growth in population for the 14-County EFS area and the state of Texas has been virtually the same since 2001, with both showing a 22 percent increase. Zavala County s population growth has been steady, never rising or falling by more than three percent over the eleven year period, slightly increasing since 2009, with a three percent increase as of Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 214

216 Population Forecast The following table projects Zavala County s population from Zavala County is projected by the year 2023 to see an overall increase in population. Based on our calculations starting in 2010, the population, by 2023, will see a steady annual increase of 1,999 people. Population Forecast From Year Population , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,676 Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas 215

217 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison Both the 14-county EFS area and the state of Texas as a whole saw an increase, which was followed a sharp drop in The 14-county EFS area however, saw multiple spikes in employment in natural resources and mining, recovering from an 18 percent loss in 2009 to see a net increase of 49 percent in The state of Texas as whole saw the least overall fluctuation, dropping just 3 percent in There was a 23 percent increase in 2012; however, this number has fallen 10 percent in the last year. Zavala County s employment in natural resources and mining consistently fell by a whopping 39 percent by Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 216

218 Job Growth Comparison Zavala County s employment growth fluctuated slightly until 2012, when it sharply fell to an eight percent net loss. The 14-county EFS areas as well as the state of Texas as a whole both have shown modest increases to 107 and 106 percent respectively. Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 217

219 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Zavala and 14-county EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotients for both Zavala County and the 14-county EFS area as a whole have been over 1 for all five years, with Zavala s rising to 2.76 in The 14-county EFS area s location quotient stands at 2.53 in 2012 and Zavala Location Quotients for NRM Employment Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

220 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

221 Employment Changes Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2013, for Zavala county area, there was a percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was percent. The industry with the highest growth was Leisure and Hospitality with a percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Other Services, with a percent change. Area Employment Employment Change Percent Change Industry Sector 4th Qtr 4th Qtr Total, All Industries 2,903 2, % Natural Resources and Mining % Construction % Manufacturing N/A Trade, Transportation and Utilities % Information % Financial Activities % Professional and Business Services N/A Education and Health Services 1,324 1, % Leisure and Hospitality % Other Services % Public Administration % Unclassified N/A Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to

222 Employment Forecast The following table demonstrates that Zavala County will experience in 2023 an increase of 849 jobs. Year Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,174 Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce Commission s forecasts for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs)

223 State Sales Tax Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Zavala County s graph is one of the simplest to examine. They are one of the few counties to see virtually a steady increase from 2002 to Starting in 2002 with state tax numbers totaling $3.7 million, they have increased at a pace of just fewer than one million dollars a year, never achieving big gains or losses. As of the fourth quarter of 2013, the state tax stands at just above $10 million. 222

224 Commuting Patterns The following table represents the number and percent of the people that work in Zavala County. Out of the 3,373 persons living in this County, only 1,157 persons are employed there. These figures demonstrated that 65.70% of the population of Zavala is employed outside. Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) in 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 2, % Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 1, % Employed and Living in the Selection Area 1, % Living in the Selection Area 3, % Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 2, % Living and Employed in the Selection Area 1, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau s On the Map 223

225 Economic Impacts in 2013 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Zavala County in The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2013 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During this period, the total output was $661 million, the total gross county product was $376 million, a total of 914 full-time employments were generated, and the total estimated county revenue was $20 million. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $ $ $18.67 $ Employment Full-Time Payroll $17.30 $8.57 $3.86 $29.73 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $77.32 $10.66 $ Total Local Revenues $20.64 Estimated County Revenue $

226 Economic Impacts in 2023 The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Zavala County. In 2023, it is estimated that a total of 381 Zavala County jobs were supported by the 15-county area under analysis, in addition to $969 million in output as well as over $620 million gross county product. Economic Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Output $ $ $45.60 $1, Employment Full-Time ,338 Payroll $71.10 $16.17 $9.43 $96.70 Fiscal Impacts Direct Indirect Induced Total Gross County Product $ $ $26.02 $ Total Local Revenues $47.22 Estimated County Revenue $

227 Additional Counties: Bexar County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 226

228 Population County Overview Bexar County, consists of a total population of 1,785,704 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 749,534 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $36,177 is the average per capita personal income. Population 1,785,704 Per Capita Personal Income 36,177 Total Employment 749,534 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 227

229 Population Growth Comparison According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bexar County has experienced a population growth that exceeds those of State of Texas and 14-county EFS area (see Figure 1). After sharing the same rate of growth during early 2001, a divergence began in 2005, where Bexar County has a higher rate of growth, while Texas and the 14-county EFS area hold a stable growth rate. Compared to the percent increase in Bexar County, the 14-county EFS area increases 19.3 percent during 11 years and Texas increases percent. Figure 1: Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 228

230 Job Growth Comparison The State of Texas, 14-county EFS area and Bexar County all provide more and more job opportunities, thus made the increase of total employment (see Figure 2) since 2010, and before they all experienced a decline from 2008 to Different from the 14-county EFS area made a big increase in 2013 with percent, the Bexar County and Texas area s employment grew almost at the same pace with 6 percent increase. Figure 2: Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison All the three areas provide important job opportunities for the Natural Resources and Mining supersector (see Figure 3). The 14-county EFS area experienced a drop in 2009 and followed by a big jump in 229

231 2013 with percent increase. For Texas, it keeps steady until 2012 with an increase with 22.5 percent, then drop to percent increase. Bexar County faced a big drop in 2011 with 12.3 percent decrease, then increase with percent in Figure 3: Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has 230

232 greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotient in Bexar County is less than 1.0, while the 14-county EFS area report a location quotient greater than 1.0 from 2007 to 2013 (see figure 4 and figure 5). It indicates that the natural resource and mining super-sector is less important to the Bexar County economy when compared to the Texas State, and to the 14-county EFS area from 2002 to 2006, the natural resource and mining supersector has greater importance than that for the Texas State. Figure 4: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 231

233 Figure 5: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 232

234 Jim Wells County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 233

235 Population County Overview Jim Well County consists of a total population of 41,754 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 20,649 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $39,800 is the average per capita personal income. Population 41,754 Per Capita Personal Income 39,800 Total Employment 20,649 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 234

236 Population Growth Comparison According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Jim Wells County has experienced a population growth that falls behind those of State of Texas and 14-county EFS area (see Figure 1). After sharing the same rate of growth during early 2001, a divergence began immediately in the following year, where Jim Wells County keeps the lower rate of growth, while Texas and the 14-county EFS area hold a stable higher growth rate. Compared to the 5.17 percent increase in Jim Wells County, the 14-county EFS area increases 19.3 percent during 11 years and Texas increases percent. Figure 1: Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 235

237 Job Growth Comparison The State of Texas, 14-county EFS area and Jim Wells County all provide more and more job opportunities, thus made the increase of total employment (see Figure 2) since 2011, and before they all experienced a decline from 2009 to The Jim Wells County made a big decline with 5.76 percent decrease, then jump into percent increase in 2013, and the 14-county EFS area grew with percent, Texas with 6 percent increase. Figure 2: Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison All the three areas provide important job opportunities for the Natural Resources and Mining supersector (see Figure 3). The 14-county EFS area experienced a drop in 2009 and followed by a big jump in 236

238 2013 with percent increase. For Texas, it keeps steady until 2012 with an increase with 22.5 percent, then drop to percent increase. Jim Wells County faced a big drop in 2009 and 2010 with percent decrease, then jump into percent increase in Figure 3: Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has 237

239 greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotient in Jim Wells County is much greater than 1.0, and the 14-county EFS area report a location quotient a little greater than 1.0 from 2007 to 2013 (see figure 4 and figure 5). It indicates that the natural resource and mining super-sector is much greater important to the Jim Wells County economy when compared to the Texas State, and to the 14-county EFS area from 2002 to 2006, the natural resource and mining super-sector has greater importance than that for the Texas State. Figure 4: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 238

240 239

241 Nueces County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 240

242 Population County Overview Nueces County, consists of a total population of 347,691 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 155,782 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $38,441 is the average per capita personal income. Population 347,691 Per Capita Personal Income 38,441 Total Employment 155,782 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 241

243 Population Growth Comparison According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Nueces County has experienced a population growth that falls behind those of State of Texas and 14-county EFS area (see Figure 1). After sharing the same rate of growth during early 2001, a divergence began immediately in the following year, where Nueces County keeps the lower rate of growth, while Texas and the 14-county EFS area hold a stable higher growth rate. Compared to the percent increase in Nueces County, the 14-county EFS area increases 19.3 percent during 11 years and Texas increases percent. Figure 1: Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 242

244 Job Growth Comparison The State of Texas, 14-county EFS area and Nueces County all provide more and more job opportunities, thus made the increase of total employment (see Figure 2) since 2011, and before they all experienced a small decline from 2008 to The Nueces County has 4.04 percent increase in 2013, and the 14- county EFS area grew with percent, Texas with 6 percent increase. Figure 2: Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 243

245 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison All the three areas provide important job opportunities for the Natural Resources and Mining supersector (see Figure 3). The 14-county EFS area experienced a drop in 2009 and followed by a big jump in 2013 with percent increase. For Texas, it keeps steady until 2012 with an increase with 22.5 percent, then drop to percent increase. Nueces County faced a big drop in 2009 with percent decrease, then jump into percent increase in Figure 3: Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 244

246 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotient in Nueces County is a greater than 1.0 except that in 2009, and the 14-county EFS area report a location quotient a little greater than 1.0 from 2007 to 2013 (see figure 4 and figure 5). It indicates that the natural resource and mining super-sector is greater important to the Nueces County economy when compared to the Texas State except that in 2009, and to the 14-county EFS area from 2007 to 2013, the natural resource and mining super-sector has greater importance than that for the Texas State. Figure 4: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 245

247 Figure 5: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 246

248 San Patricio County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 247

249 Population County Overview San Patricio County consists of a total population of 65,600 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 18,982 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $38,087 is the average per capita personal income. Population 65,600 Per Capita Personal Income 38,087 Total Employment 18,982 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 248

250 Population Growth Comparison According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the San Patricio County has experienced a population growth that falls behind those of State of Texas and 14-county EFS area, it even decreased since 2008 (see Figure 1). After sharing the same rate of growth during early 2001, a divergence began immediately in the following year, where San Patricio County keeps the lower rate of growth, and then decrease with 1.63 percent in While Texas and the 14-county EFS area hold a stable higher growth rate. The 14- county EFS area increases 19.3 percent during 11 years and Texas increases percent. Figure 1: Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 249

251 Job Growth Comparison The State of Texas, 14-county EFS area and San Patricio County all provide more and more job opportunities, thus made the increase of total employment (see Figure 2) since 2011, and before they all experienced a small decline from 2008 to The San Patricio County has 5.75 percent increase in 2013, and the 14-county EFS area grew with percent, Texas with 6 percent increase. Figure 2: Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 250

252 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison All the three areas provide important job opportunities for the Natural Resources and Mining supersector (see Figure 3). The 14-county EFS area experienced a drop in 2009 and followed by a big jump in 2013 with percent increase. For Texas, it keeps steady until 2012 with an increase with 22.5 percent, then drop to percent increase. San Patricio County faced a drop in 2009 with 2.04 percent decrease, then jump into percent increase in Figure 3: Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 251

253 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotient in San Patricio County is a greater than 1.0, and the 14-county EFS area also report a location quotient greater than 1.0 from 2007 to 2013 (see figure 4 and figure 5). It indicates that the natural resource and mining super-sector is greater important to the San Patricio County economy when compared to the Texas State from 2007 to 2013, and to the 14-county EFS area from 2007 to 20013, the natural resource and mining super-sector has greater importance than that for the Texas State. Figure 4: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 252

254 Figure 5: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 253

255 Uvalde County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 254

256 Population County Overview Uvalde County consists of a total population of 65,600 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 18,982 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $38,087 is the average per capita personal income. Population 65,600 Per Capita Personal Income $38,087 Total Employment 18,982 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 255

257 Population Growth Comparison According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Uvalde County has experienced a population growth that falls behind those of State of Texas and 14-county EFS area (see Figure 1). After sharing the same rate of growth during early 2001, a divergence began immediately in the following year, where Uvalde County keeps the lower rate of growth with 3.13 percent in While Texas and the 14-county EFS area hold a stable higher growth rate. The 14-county EFS area increases 19.3 percent during 11 years and Texas increases percent. Figure 1: Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 256

258 Job Growth Comparison The State of Texas, 14-county EFS area and Uvalde County all provide more and more job opportunities, thus made the increase of total employment (see Figure 2) since 2011, and before they all experienced a small decline from 2008 to The Uvalde County has 1.26 percent increase in 2013, and the 14- county EFS area grew with percent, Texas with 6 percent increase. Figure 2: Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 257

259 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison All the three areas provide important job opportunities for the Natural Resources and Mining supersector (see Figure 3). The 14-county EFS area experienced a drop in 2009 and followed by a big jump in 2013 with percent increase. For Texas, it keeps steady until 2012 with an increase with 22.5 percent, then drop to percent increase. Uvalde County faced a drop in 2013 with percent decrease. Figure 3: Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 258

260 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotient in Uvalde County is much greater than 1.0, and the 14-county EFS area also report a location quotient greater than 1.0 from 2007 to 2013 (see figure 4 and figure 5). It indicates that the natural resource and mining super-sector is greater important to the Uvalde County economy when compared to the Texas State from 2007 to 2013, and to the 14-county EFS area from 2007 to 20013, the natural resource and mining super-sector has greater importance than that for the Texas State. Figure 4: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 259

261 Figure 5: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 260

262 Victoria County Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. Center for Community and Business Research. 261

263 Population County Overview Victoria County, consists of a total population of 89,269 thousand people. Out of these, the population that makes up the total employment is 39,119 people. It is estimated that out of the total employment, $42,452 is the average per capita personal income. Population 89,269 Per Capita Personal Income 42,452 Total Employment 39,119 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts 262

264 Population Growth Comparison According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Victoria County has experienced a population growth that falls behind those of State of Texas and 14-county EFS area (see Figure 1). After sharing the same rate of growth during early 2001, a divergence began immediately in the following year, where Victoria County keeps the lower rate of growth with 5.66 percent in While Texas and the 14-county EFS area hold a stable higher growth rate. The 14-county EFS area increases 19.3 percent during 11 years and Texas increases percent. Figure 1: Comparative Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau 263

265 Job Growth Comparison The State of Texas, 14-county EFS area and Victoria County all provide more and more job opportunities, thus made the increase of total employment (see Figure 2) since 2011, and before they all experienced a small decline from 2008 to The Victoria County faced a drop with 5.94 percent decrease, and then grew into 1.52 percent increase in 2013, and the 14-county EFS area grew with percent, Texas with 6 percent increase. Figure 2: Comparative Employment Growth Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 264

266 Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison All the three areas provide important job opportunities for the Natural Resources and Mining supersector (see Figure 3). The 14-county EFS area experienced a drop in 2009 and followed by a big jump in 2013 with percent increase. For Texas, it keeps steady until 2012 with an increase with 22.5 percent, then drop to percent increase. Victoria County faced a drop in 2009 with percent decrease, and then grew with a percent increase in Figure 3: Comparative Job Growth for Natural Resource and Mining Source: Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW) 265

267 Location Quotients for NRM Employment in Atascosa and 14-county EFS area Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy with total jobs in the local economy. A location quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is less important to the local economy when compared to the State. The location quotient in Victoria County is much greater than 1.0, and the 14-county EFS area also report a location quotient greater than 1.0 from 2007 to 2013 (see figure 4 and figure 5). It indicates that the natural resource and mining super-sector is greater important to the Victoria County economy when compared to the Texas State from 2007 to 2013, and to the 14-county EFS area from 2007 to 20013, the natural resource and mining super-sector has greater importance than that for the Texas State. Figure 4: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 266

268 Figure 5: Location Quotients for NRM Employment 267

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