INPUT - OUTPUT ELASTICITIES:

Transcription

1 ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006), f) _ '- INPUT - OUTPUT ELASTICITIES: ΤΗΕ CASE OF WESTERN THESSALY Abstract The input - output models haνe been used enough in regional economy and regional deνelopment all oνer the world, more specifically afterwards The input - output models g i νe in detail depiction of regional economic sectors. The present work deals with the calculation of elasticities of production, income and employment of 29 sectors of economic actiνity for Western Thessaly. The sectors of 'Products of Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry', 'Constructions', 'Hotels and Restaurants', 'Foods - Drinks - Tobacco', 'Textile Matters and Products', «Real Estate Services, Services of Renting and Enterprising', constitute the more dynamically sectors of economy under reνiew. Περίληψη Τα υποδείγματα εισροών - εκροών έχουν χρησιμοποιηθεί αρκετά στην περιφερειακή οικονομία και ανάπτυξη σε όλο τον κόσμο, ειδικότερα μετά το Ένα υπόδειγμα εισροών - εκροών δίνει μια λεπτομερή απεικόνιση της περιφερειακής οικονομίας και των κλάδων που την απαρτίζουν. Η παρούσα εργασία ασχολείται με τον υπολογισμό των ελαστικοτήτων παραγωγής, εισοδήματος και απασχόληση ς 29 κλάδων οικονομικής δραστηριότητας, για τη Δ. Θεσσαλία. Οι κλάδοι «Προϊόντα γεωργίας, θήρας και δασολογίας», «Κατασκευαστικές εργασίες», «Υπηρεσίες ξενοδοχείων και εστιατορίων», «Τρόφιμα - ποτά - Καπνός», «Κλωστοϋφαντουργικέ ς ύλες και προϊόντα», «Υπηρεσίε ς που αφορούν ακίνητα, υπηρεσίες ενοικίασης και επιχειρηματικές υπηρεσίες», αποτελούν τα πιο δυναμικά στοιχεία της υπό εξέταση οικονομίας. SPYRIDON SOFIOS Dιpιrtmιnt οι Forιstry ιnd Νιtυrιl Enνlronmιnt, Arlιtotlι Unlνιnlty οι Thιιιιlonlkl, Unlνιrιlty Cιιnpυι GARYFALLOS ARABATZIS Dιpιrtmιnt οι Forιιtry ιnd Μιnιαιmιnι οι Enνlronmιnt ιnd Νιtυrιl Rιιουrcιι, Dιmocrltuι Unlνιrιlty οι Thrιcι KONSTANTINOS SOUTSAS Tιchnologlcιl Educιtlonιl lnιtltutι οι Lιrlιιι ANASTASIOS PAPASTAVROU Dιpιrtmιnt οι Forιιtry and Νιtυrιl Enνlronmιnt, Arlιtotlι Unlνιrιlty οι Tbιιιιlonlkl, Unlνerιlty Cιιnpυι JEL Classification: C67, 013, 018, R58 ke words: Elasticities, input - output, production, income, employment. 249

2 ΣΠ. ΣΟ ΙΟΣ, Γ. ΑΡΑΜΠΑΤΖΗΣ, Κ. ΣΟΠΣΑΣ, ΑΝ. ΠΑΠΑΙΤΑΥΡΟΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006), Introduction The input - output models are based on the a.ffairs rewarded with Nobel of Economy in 1973, Russian Professor W. Leontief ( ). The concrete model was devised in '30s in the work of Leontief titled «The Structure of the American Economy » and up to to.day constitutes a achieved tool of reso\ution of problems of economic planning (Loukakis, 1997). The input - output tables then, were used for the analysis of economies of other countries, as the Federal Republic of Germany (Helmstadter et al., 1983). Ιη Greece, have been worked out five primary input - output tables for years 1958, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1988 and two energy tables for years 1980 and 1985 (Livas, 1994). The utilization of input - output model presents the fo llowing advantages: a) lt constitutes tools of analysis of general balance and ηο partial balance. b) Also, it constitutes the unique model that visualizes completely and consequently, the interdependences between the sectors of economic activity. c) The input - output models were built so that they provide the possibility of empiric analysis (Miernyk, 1965). From the most important inquiring work that is presented not only in Greek but in international bibliography are the following: Ireri (1967) used the input - output method in order to appreciate the economic interdependence of states California and Arizona (U.S.A). He focused in the rural sector as well as ίη the use of water as factor of development. Lofting (1968) analyzed the requirements in water of California State (U.S.A.), using of input - output models and linear programming. Jensen et al. (1979), proposed the GRIT method in order to build input - output tables trying to overcome the problems of building tables, using primary or secondary methods. Practical application of this method became in the state Queensland of Australia, building input - output tables so much for the regions what for entire concrete state. Rabinowicz (1982) studied the effect of rural sector in the employment of region. Anderson and Manning (1983) used the input - output analysis in order to study developmental work in the economy of band. Mattas et al. (1984) built the input - output table without using primary data. Their table contained 59 sectors of economic activity and it was reported for the state of Kentucky (U.S.A.). Soutsas (1987), using the input - output method appreciated the contribution of timber in the regional growth with application of method in the Region of Thessaly. Mattas and Shrestha (1991), proposed the use of input - output elasticities for the estimate of important economic sectors. They used elasticities of production, employment and income of sectors - keys of Greek economy. Livas and Hondronikolas (1994), built the energy input - output tables of Greek

3 SP. SOFIOS, G. ARABATZIS, Κ. SOUTSAS, ΑΝ. PAPASTAVROU - REVIEW OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES - Νο 9 (2006), economy for years 1980 and Livas (1996), appreciated the technological changes of energy input - output tables and the factors of input - output of Greek economy for the year 1990 using the RAS method. Robinson (1997), uses the input - output models, for the analysis of rυral bands, while mentions an application in the central Idaho (U.S.A.). Lenzen and Foran (2001), used the inpυt - output analysis for the use of water in Australia. Their study showed that today there is an annual deficit approximately 4000GI, while, the increase of population as well as the increase per capita of water use in the research area, the next 50 times will double the reqυirements of water. This quantity is equal with the half roughly flow of water in Aυstralia. Loizou (2001) built a regional input - output model for the quantitative evaluation of repercussions of productive process in the environment. Application of this method became in the region of Central Macedonia with the built of input - output table which included 31 sectors of economic activity. Moreover, he calculated the environmental multipliers for the region under review. Karagianni and Pempetzoglou (2004), examines the economic implications of sectoral exemptions from energy taxation ίη Greece. This issue is being analyzed ίη the context of an input - output model of the Greek economy calibrated to 1994 data. Alcantara and Padilla (2003), analyzed the determination of "key" sectors in the final energy consumption for the Spanish economy in order to indicate the greater or lesser relevance of the different sectors in the consumption of final energy. Karkacier and Goktolga (2004), as well as Ozkan, Akcaoz and Fert (2004), make input - output analysis of energy use in Turkish agricultυre. Stilwell et al (2000) used input - output techniques in order to analyze the impacts of gold, coal and other mining activities upon the South African economy between 1971 and Methodology The research area administratively belongs to the region of Thessaly and includes the prefectυres of Karditsa and Trikaιa with total extent of Κm 2. The above area constitutes the 42.6% of total extent of region Thessaly. The cultivated land and fallows run into the 30%, the forests 7.4% and the pasture land 33.5% respectively (NSSG, 1995). The population amounts in 267,588 residents (NSSG, 2002). In the area under review, domin.ate the intensive cultures of cotton and maize as well as forests of high productivity, with result the primary sector contributes ίη the 36.9% of total GNP. Also, developed is the tertiary sector which represents the 46.2% of GNP (Katochianou et al., 1995). For the calculation of elasticities of production, income and employment for 29 sectors of economic activity was υ se d the input - output table of the research area. The input - output elasticities defined as follows: 251

4 ΙΠ. ΙΟ ΙΟΙ, Γ. ΑΡΑΜΠΑΤΖΗΙ, κ. ΙΟΥΤΙΑΙ, ΑΝ. ΠΑΠΑΠΑΥΡΟΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006), ) lnput - Output Elasticities One of the major weaknesses of input - output multipliers, is that they do not take into consideration the size of economic activity sectors. Consequently, there is the case they show that certain sectors have important contribution in the economy, while this actually does not happen. Therefore, the info rmation and the results that are probably concluded from the input - output multipliers probably lead the economic policy to erroneous direction. For the confrontation of the issue mentioned above, Mattas and Shrestha (1991), proposed the use of input - output e\asticities. The input - output e\asticities, present the important advantage that their use take into consideration data with regard to the size of sectors of economic activity and the corresponding sales in the fi nal demand. According to Loizou (2001), the elasticities are considered more suitable in the case the interest is focused οη the final demand, while the multipliers are more suitable when the interest is focused in the determination of dynamic sectors of the economy irrelevantly from the size Όf repercussions that can the sectors create. The categories of input - output elasticities are the fo llowing (Mattas and Shrestha, 1991): ί ) Elasticities of product. They are calculated according to the type: Where: n Υ. O Exyj = ;'~ b;/;) O Exyj: the elasticity of product of sector n Χ = Σ : the total crude production of economy i = I bij : cell of matrix of Leontief Yj : the equivalent cell in the vector of fin al demand Direct elasticity of product. lt is calculated according to the type: Yj DOExjyj = bj (Χ) Indirect elasticity of product. It is calculated according to the type: O Exyj - DOExjyj The elasticities of production measure the percentage change in the total product of economy because one of percentage change in the final demand of sector Ι. ίί ) Elasticities of income. They are calcul ated according to the type: 252

5 SP. SOFIOS, G. ARABATZIS, Κ. SOUTSAS, ΑΝ. PAPASTAVROU - REVIEW OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES - Νο 9 (2006), Where IExyj: the elasticity of income of sector 1 Hj: the income of sector j ίη the vector of incomes of households bij : cell of matrix of Leontief Yj : the equivalent cell ίη the vector of final demand 11 Χ = Σ : the total crude production of economy i= I Xj : the total production of sector j Η! : the direct coefficient of income xj The elasticities of income measure the percentage change of total income of economy because one of percentage change ίη the final demand of sector j. ίίί) Elasticities of product. They are calculated according to the type: Where EExyj: the elasticity of employment of sector j Ej: occupied in sector j Ε _!._ : the factor of employment xj bij : cell of matrix of Leontief Yj : the equivalent cell in the vector of final demand n Χ = Σ : the total crude production of economy i= I Xj : the total production of sector j 3. Results According to the above types, became the calculation of input - output elasticities and according to Tables 1, 2 and 3, it is obvious, that the sector of 'Products of agriculture, hunting and forestry' finds itself in the first (1) place. Follow the sectors 'Constructions', 'Services of hotels and restaurants' and 'Foods - Drinks - Tobacco' The smaller elasticities present the sectors 'Fish catch', 'Not Energy Materials', 'Equipment of Transport' and 'Products of Refinement Fuel Oil' and 'Services of Financier Mediation'. 253

6 ΣΠ. ΣΟtΙΟΣ, Γ. ΛΡΑΜΠΛΤΖΗΣ, Κ. ΣΟΥΤΙΛΣ, ΛΝ. ΠΛΠΛΠΛΥΡΟΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006), Conclusions As we have already mentioned, one of the major weaknesses of input - output multipliers, is that, they do not take into consideration the size of economic activity sectors and probably their use could lead to false conclusions about the research area. Ιη this paper instead of using input - output multipliers, we calculated the input - output elasticities of production, income and employment of 29 sectors of economic activity for Westem Thessaly. The input - output elasticities, present the important advantage that their use take into consideration data with regard to the size of sectors of economic activity and the coπesponding sales ίη the fina1 demand. Ιη Table 3 are presented the main input - output elasticities of the most important sectors of economic activity for the area under review. As appear from the table mentioned before, the sectors of 'Products of Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry', 'Constructions', Ήotels and Restaurants', 'Foods - Drinks - Tobacco', 'Textile Manufacturing Matters and Products', 'Real Estate Services, Services of Renting and Enterprising Services', 'Services of Education' and 'Sanitary and Social Services' constitute the more dynamically cells of economy under review. The above results can be used for the economic planning and the development of the area under research. Indeed, ίη case that regional planning takes into account the input - output elasticities, we have to strengthen the sector of 'Products of Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry' and 'Constructions' ίη order to achieve economic development and welfare improvement for Westem Thessaly. References Alcantara V., Padilla Ε., "Key sectors in final energy consumption: an input - output application to the Spanish case, Energy Policy, 31, Anderson Α., Manning Τ., The use of input/output analysis in eνa luation water resource deνelopment, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 31, Νο 1: Douglas J., Reilly J., National impacts of a regional primary industry, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 21, National Statistic Service of Greece, Distribution of extent of Greece at basic categories of use, Athens (in Greek). National Statistic Service of Greece, Results of inνentory of population, Athens (in Greek). Helmstiidter Ε., Mayer Β., Κl e in e Ε., Richtering J., Die Input - Output Analyse als lnstrument der Structurforschung, J.C.B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), Tϋbingen. Ireri D., California - Arizona Economic Interdependence and their Water Use Patterns, Ph.D. Dissertation. Jensen R.C., Mandeνille Τ. D., Karunaratne N.D., Regional Economic Planning, Generation of Regional Input - Output Analysis, Croom Helm Ltd, London. Karagianni S., Pempetzoglou Μ., Energy taxes with exemptions in Greece: An Input - Output analysis, SPOUDAI 54, (3) Karkacier Ο., Goktolga G. Κ., Input - output analysis of energy use in agriculture, Energy Conνention & Management.

7 SP. SOFIOS, G. ARABATZIS, Κ. SOUTSAS, ΑΝ. PAPASTAVROU - REVIEW OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES - Νο 9 (2006), Katochianou D., Tonikidou Ρ., Kavadias Ρ., asic Data of Regional Socioeconomic Development ίη Greece, ΚΕΡΕ, Athens (ίη Greek). Lenzen Μ., Foran 8., Απ Input - Output Analysis of Australian Water Usage, Water Policy, 3, Livas Ρ Input - Output Analysis, Α. Stamoulis Publications, Athens ( ίη Greek). Livas Ρ., Hondronicolas G., Energy input -output tables of Greek economy for years 1980 and 1985, ΚΕΡΕ, Athens (ίη Greek). Livas Ρ., Technological changes of energy input - output tables and input - output coefficients for year 1990 of Greek economy, ΚΕΡΕ, Athens (ίη Greek). Lofting Ε. Μ., Απ Input - Output and Linear Programming Analysis of California Water Requirements, Ph. D. Dissertation. Loizou Ε. S., Quantitative evaluation of repercussions of productive process in the environment, Ph.D. thesis that was submitted ίη the Department of Agronomy of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (ίη Greek). Loukakis Μ., Mathematics of Economic Sciences, Volume ΙΙ, Zigos Publications, Thessaloniki (ίη Greek). Mattas Κ., Pagoulatos Α., Dabertin D., uilding Input / Output Models Using Νοη - Survey Technjques: Απ Application to Kentucky, Southem Rural Development Center and University of Kentucky, Department of Agricultural Economics. Mattas Κ., Shrestha C., Α New Approach to Determining Sectoral Priorities ίη an Economy: Input - Output Elasticities, Applied Economics, 23, Miernyk W., The elements of input - output analysis. Random House, Inc., New York. Miller R.E., Blair P.D., Input - Output analysis: Foundations and extensions. Englewood Cliffs, Prentice - Hall, Inc., New Jersey. Ozkan 8., Akcaoz Η., Fert C., Energy input - output analysis in Turkish agriculture, Renewable energy 29, Rabinowicz Ε., Input/output studies of agriculture in regional economy-some problems of method, European Review of Agricultural Economics, 9, Robinson Μ. Η., Comrnuruty input-output models for rural area analysis with an example from central Idaho, Annals of Regional Science, 31, Skountzos Τ.Α., Economic Planning, Α. Stamoulis Publications, Piraeus (ίη Greek). Skountzos Τ.Α., Regional Economic Analysis and Policy. Techniques of Analysis Volume 11. Α. Stamoulis Publications, Athens - Piraeus (ίη Greek). Stilwell L. C., Minnitt R. C. Α., Monson Τ. D., Kuhn G., Απ input - output analysis of the impact of rnirung οη the South African Econoπiy. Resources Policy, 26, Sofios S., Evaluation of the contribution of water potential ίη the regional development using quantitative methods (the case of Western Thessaly), Ph.D. thesis that was submitted in the Department of Forestry and Natural Environment of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (ίη Greek). Soutsas C. Ρ., Estimate of contribution of timber in the regional development using quantitative methods, Ph.D. thesis that was submitted ίη the Department of Forestry and Natural Environment of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (ίη Greek). Yan C. S., Introduction to input - output economics, Holt, Rinehart, and Winston Inc., USA. 255

8 ΣΠ. ΣΟΦΙΟΣ, Γ. ΑΡΑΜΠΑΤΖΗΣ, κ. ΣΟΥΤΣΑΣ, ΑΝ. ΠΑΠΑΠΑΥΡΟΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχο ς 9 (2006), Table l. E/asticities ο/ product Sectors ofeconomic Elasticities Lineof Activity ofproduct classification Direct Elasticities of Product Lineof classification Indirect Elasticities ofρroduct Line of classification ProducΙSof Agήcώture, Hunting and Forestrv Fish Cιιtch Enervv Mateήals Νοιι I!nergy Mateήals Foods - Dήnks - Tobacco Textile Manufactuήng Matters 8ld ProducΙS Skin and Leaιher tvτ>es Timber and ProducΙS oftimber Pιper and ProduclS from Paper, Services of Publications - Pήntinp;s ProducΙSof Refinement Fuel ΟίΙ Chemical Substιnces and ProducΙS Plastic, Flexible Matters ΙΚΙd Products ProducΙS from non Metal Μίnίnιι Basic Metals ΙΚΙd Metal Products InstrumenlS and Eαuiρment Electήc Equipment and Optical Aρρliances Equipment of Tnιnsnort Remaining Remade Products Electήcal Enenzv

9 SP. SOFIOS, G. ARABATZIS, Κ. SOUTSAS, ΑΝ. PAPASTAVROU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES Νο 9 (2006), d Natural Gas Water Constructions o.0416n1 2 Services of Wbolesale ιιιd Retail Trade Hotels and Restaw8DIS Servicesof Trιosport, Stoιage ιιιd Communicatioos Services offίn811cίer Mediaιioo Real Estate Services, Services ofrenting 81d F.nterpήsing Services Serνicesof Education S811itary 8ld Social Services Services of Housebolds that Employ Personnel, services in favour of the Pυblic, Services ofsocial and hιdividual Oιanιcter, Services of Public Administration, Defeoce.ιd Obligatory Social Insurance o.o52n

10 ΣΠ. ΣDtlDΣ, Γ. ΑΡΛΜΠΑΤΖΗΣ, κ. ΣDΥΤΙΛΣ, ΑΝ. ΠΑΙ1ΛΙΤΛΥΡDΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006), Τ able 2. lnpιιt - Οιιtpιιt Elasticities Sec1orsof Ecooomic Activity Elasticities Lineof lncome Lineof Employment Lineof ofproduct clιssificatioo Elasticities clasιιificatioo Elasticities clasιιificιtion Produc1sof Agήcultwτi, Huntingιnd Forestιy Fish Catdι F.nergy M.ateriιls Νοο F.nergy M.ateriιls Foods - Drinb -Tobacco Textile Manufactuήng Mιtters81d Products Skin 81d Leadιer Types

11 SP. SOFIOS, G. ARABATZIS, Κ. SOUTSAS, ΑΝ. PAPASTAVROU - REVIEW OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES - Νο 9 (2006), Timberand Productsof Timber Pιper81d ProducΙS &om Pιper, Services of Publicatioos Pήntίngs ProducΙSof Refinemeot Fuel Oil Chemical Substaoces and Products Plιstic, Flexible Matters 81d Products Products &om noometal Mίning Basic Metals andmetal Products

12 ΣΠ. ΣΟtΙΟΣ, Γ. ΑΡΑΜΠΑΤΖΗΣ, Κ. ΣΟΥΤΣΑΣ, ΑΝ. ΠΑΠΑΠΑΥΡΟΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006), lnstnιmeιι1s and Equipmeιιt Electήc Equipment and Optical Aρplisιces Equίpmeιιt of Tnκιsport Remaining Remade Products Electήcal Energy and Natural Gas Wιιter Constructioos Services of Wbolesale ιnd Retail Trade Hotels sιd Restaurants Servicesof Trιnsport,

13 SP. SOFIOS, G. ARABATZIS, Κ. SOUTSAS, ΑΝ. PAPASTAVROU - REVIEW OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES - Νο 9 (2006), Storage ιnd Communications Services of Finιncier Mediation R.ea1 Estate Services, Servicesof Rentingand Enteιpήsing Services Services of Education Sanitaιy and Social Services Services of Households that Employ Per.ιonnel, Services in Ο. 01ΠΟ faνour of the Public, Services of Social sid 261

14 ΣΠ. ΣΟtΙΟΣ, Γ. ΛΡΛΜΠΑΤΖΗΣ, Κ. ΣΟΠΣΛΣ, ΑΝ. ΠΑΠΛΠΛΥΡΟΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006) Individual Character, Services of Public Adιnίnistration, Defence and Obligatoιy Social lnsunιιce 262

15 SP. SOFIOS, G. ARABATZIS, Κ. SOUTSAS, ΑΝ. PAPASTAVROU - REVIEW OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES - Νο 9 (2006), Table 3. Μαiιι ιιectora of econoιrιic c activity Sectorsof Product Income Employmeot ( Economic Actίvity Elasticities Elasticities Elasticities Productsof Agricώtuιe, Hιmtίngιnd (1) (1) (1) Forestry Foods - Drin.ks n54 - Tobacco (3) (4) (4) Constructioos (2) (2) (2) Hotιels ιnd Restaurants (4) (3) (3) Textile Mιnufactuήng Mattersεd (10) (5) (5) Products Real &tate Services, Servicesof (5) (6) (6) Reotίngιnd 263

16 ΣΠ. ΣΟ ΙΟΣ, r. ΑΡΑΜΠΑΤΖΗΣ, κ. ΣΟΥΤΣΑΣ, ΑΝ. ΠΑΠΑΠΑΥΡΟΥ - ΕΠΙθΕΩΡΗΣΗ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ - Τεύχος 9 (2006), Enterpήsing Services Servicesof Education (6) (7) (7) Sanitary and Social Services (7) (8) (8) 264