Retail Search Advertising Forecasts for 2010 Holidays

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1 Retail Search Advertising Forecasts for 2010 Holidays A NetElixir Research Report October 2010

2 A Cautiously-Optimistic Holiday Season Forecast Year-to-Date Search Advertising Performance Analysis and Category Level Forecasts for Online Retail

3 Introduction The search advertising performance numbers are finally looking strong. Some what strong. After several quarters of gloomy projections, we finally have got to a point where our Holiday forecasts are cautiously optimistic. The back to school search trends were stronger than expected. This was a big relief especially after a slow Q2,2010. As we enter the 2010 holiday season (or, have we entered already?) our advice for retail search marketers: Execute your online customer acquisition plans efficiently and aggressively, however, do have a plan B ready. As a search engine marketing firm that works exclusively with e-retailers, we have the unique opportunity to observe the retail sector s fundamental shifts first-hand. Search advertising parameters are great indicators of the level of confidence consumers have in the economy. Since Q4,2008 our quarterly reports have tried to capture the key trends and share practical tips on how NetElixir has been adapting their SEM strategy to help clients make most of the opportunities presented by these shifts. Our report is based on daily performance data collected from our ongoing research on paid search advertising campaigns of 32 online retailers. We hope you find our analysis and forecasts useful for fine tuning your search advertising program for the critical 2010 holiday season. Wishing you continued success! Udayan Bose Founder & CEO, NetElixir

4 Select Categories (Y/Y (Y/Y Holiday Forecasts vs. 2009) vs. 2009) Clicks (Y/Y Growth) CPC (Y/Y Growth) CTR (Y/Y Growth) AOV (Y/Y Growth) Conversion Rate (Y/Y Growth) Flowers & 8% 8% 2% 4% 8% Apparel 6% 9% 7% 7% 13% Consumer Electronics 10% 12% 7% 7% 22% Food & Drugs 2% 5% 3% 3% 10% Home Furnishings 5% 8% 6% 2% 12% Pet Supplies 3% 2% 2% 2% 6% Home Improvement 9% 8% 6% 1% 16% Total 9% 9% 5% 2% 15% -2-

5 Observations We expect all key search advertising parameters to trend upwards during the holidays. Even though Y/Y click to sale conversion rate is forecasted to grow at 15%, we expect the average order value (AOV) to remain more or less the same as last year. In fact, for most of 2010, AOV for categories like apparel and home improvement has been lower than CPC increase during the holiday season is a normal phenomenon (holiday CPC s are on an average 15-25% higher than rest of year CPC). However, we expect the Y/Y holiday CPC increase to be 9%. Many large advertisers have spare budget left for 2010 and they will throw this extra cash on paid search thereby pushing up the CPC s for many categories. The double impact due to increase in CPC and lower than expected AOV will be difficult to counter. We expect the Return on Advertising Spend (Revenue/ Ad Spend) for most retail categories to either remain at 2009 level or dip marginally

6 Key Paid Key Search Paid Adver+sing Search Advertising Parameters Parameters (YTD (YTD September versus YTD YTD September 2009) Y/Y Growth (YTD Sept 2010) Y/Y Growth (Q1,2010) Y/Y Growth (Q2,2010) Clicks 6.2% 7% 5% 7% CPC ($) 7.9% 10% 5.3% 7% Click through Rate Conversion Rate Average Order Value 5% 8% 3.8% 5% 23% 44% 16% 13% 3% 10.2% (1.5%) (1%) Y/Y Growth (Q3,2010) -4-

7 Y/Y Average Weekly Clicks (YTD September 2010) Note: The Y/Y click increase around the key shopping events as well as the continuing growth in clicks from early September lead us to forecast a 9% Y/Y increase in clicks during the holidays

8 Y/Y Average Weekly CPC (YTD September 2010) Y/Y Average Weekly CPC (YTD September 2010) Back to school CPC was considerably higher in 2010 Note: The considerable increase in CPC during back-to-school season followed by a slight Y/Y dip in September CPC s may indicate an interesting shift in search advertising strategic landscape, where (at least some) advertisers are focusing on investing more (than in regular times) in limited time paid search campaigns built around the key online shopping events. This shift coupled with large advertisers throwing in their spare annual budget on paid search may lead to a significant CPC inflation between 11/26/ /23/

9 Y/Y Average Weekly Conversion Rates (YTD September 2010) Y/Y Average Weekly Conversion Rates (YTD September 20 Back to school conversion rates were higher than in 2009 Note: The spikes in conversion rates during back-to-school and Father s Day validate the event focused paid search advertising strategy being increasingly adopted by retail search marketers. The online shopper seems to be spending a greater percentage of her annual online shopping budget during key dates

10 2009 CPC Analysis: Holidays(11/1-12/23) vs. Rest of Year 2009 CPC Analysis: Holidays(11/1-12/23) vs. rest of year CPC goes up due to aggressive Black Friday bidding Bids during the week following Black Friday are lower by 7% Marketers are willing to increase bids by 50% in an effort to gain last minute sales Note: We expect similar bid movements this year. Search advertisers should plan in advance to gain maximum advantage of the bid trends. Note: We expect similar bid movements this year. Search advertisers should plan in advance to gain maximum advantage of the bid trends

11 Practical SEM Tips for Retail Search Marketers 1. FOCUS: Identify the product categories you want to target through paid search. Establish measurable goals and checkpoints for measuring progress. Big retailers dominate most categories, however, a smart retailer can still own a niche. 2. KPI s: Establish your own set of key performance metrics. Also, know what action to take based on KPI trends. 3. PROMOTIONS: Plan your holiday promo calendar carefully. Know what dates to focus on and the date-specific- limited time promotions you want to run. Have pre-defined goals for every promotion. Analyze actual performance against your pre-defined goals. 4. COMPETITION: Do you have data that helps you to anticipate competitive moves? We strongly recommend the creation of paid search competition grid (messages, rankings, keywords, promos) and maintaining it regularly. 5. PLAN B: A large number of variables are involved in any paid search advertising program. Needless to mention, retailers do not have any control over many of these variables. A carefully crafted plan may get disrupted if some of the underlying elements change. It is not only important for search marketers to use custom KPI set to quickly capture the first signs of disruption but also they must have a Plan B in place that they can switch to quickly. Many paid search campaigns do not deliver simply because the underlying assumptions on which they were built do not hold true any longer

12 Cautiously Optimistic Outlook for 2010 Holidays: Concluding Remarks Fluctuating YTD search trends in 2010 lead to a positive but cautious outlook. Though click volume picked up in third quarter, the average order value continued to be weak. However, the strong conversion rate (number of conversions/number of clicks) yet again demonstrates the value of search advertising as top sales generation channel, across categories. Consumer electronics will be the most active retail category on paid search. The category will have clear winners who garner maximum share of voice and hence majority of online sales dollars available. For the rest, we advise a strong focus on niche products and a solid control on paid search profitability. Larger advertisers are extending their already significant lead over the smaller retailers. As we had stated earlier, paid search advertising is clearly being dominated by larger advertisers

13 About NetElixir: NetElixir, Inc., is an online customer acquisition management firm headquartered in Princeton, NJ, with global offices in London, UK; Hyderabad, India; Freiburg, Germany; and Copenhagen, Denmark. The company advises clients worldwide on online customer acquisition strategies and, using its proprietary technology - LXR Retail, helps them achieve online advertising performance maximization. NetElixir s suite of services and products includes both an end-to-end campaign management service as well as optimization technology and service solutions for online retailers. For additional information, please visit or call us at Web Coordinates: info@netelixir.com

14 Disclaimer This NetElixir report is intended for general information and is based on publicly available data available on the Internet at a particular point in time. NetElixir gives no guarantee regarding this information and accepts no liability for any inconvenience, or any direct or consequential loss, arising from reliance upon this information. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise without the permission of NetElixir, Inc NetElixir, Inc. All rights reserved