Using a decision support software in planning a waste management system in Hungary

Transcription

1 Using a decision support software in planning a waste management system in Hungary ANGELIKA CSERNY, ANETT UTASI, ENDRE DOMOKOS Institute of Environmental Engineering University of Pannonia Veszprém, Egyetem u.10. P.O.B H-8201 HUNGARY Abstract: Modernizing and rearrange the waste management system to the norms of the European Union is one of the most important tasks of the environmental protection in Hungary. Connected to this the Middle-Danube Region Waste Management System is one of the biggest infrastructure investments at present. This investment having an effect on six counties could solve the waste treatment problems of the residents for at least 20 years in the settlements affected. Systems approach mind is needed to complex waste management systems like this, in which beside landfills, plants for separated collection as sorting devices, compost piles, transfer points, waste yards are included and the recultivation of the inconvenient landfills is needed, too. Meeting the systems approach mind is possible only with computational decision support tools. Parmenides EIDOS is a module-based decision support software, specially developed for the economy and the corporate management. The goal of the research was to adapt these software toolkits to environmental field and to examine how the software could be used in the course of the planning of the Middle-Danube Region Waste Management System. According to the authors experience some modules of the software are able to apply well to simplify the complex decision situation and to lay stress on the most important problems. Subjectivity is unavoidable of course, but the subjective elements aid rather than hinder the process due to the group decision-making technique. [1] Further advantage is that the data, results are presented visually by this means the time of understanding decreases and keeping in mind become easier than reading naked data or tables. That is why the figures made with EIDOS could be part of a marketing material prepared for the population to increase their support for the investment. Keywords: waste management, decision support, computer-aided visualization, environmental impact assessment 1 Introduction The membership of Hungary in the European Union means obligation and at the same time possibility to join up in the respect of environmental protection, since the Union provides financial sources for environmental improvements. Modernizing and rearrange the waste management to the norms of the European Union is one of the most important tasks of the environmental protection. The aim is to expand a comprehensive, up-to-date waste management structure that is to harmonize and widen the available and planned waste treatment plants and capacities and to establish new, regional waste management systems, which cover the whole country. The Middle- Danube Region Waste Management System set the aim to handle the municipal waste of 680 thousand people of 170 settlements affected which includes the creation of the technological, constitutional and the communication conditions. The system contains the treatment of the waste coming from the households, the economy and from the institutions covering the separated waste collection as well. Though public services are developed in the whole of the planning area, the waste elimination is done solely by deposition at present with negligible treatment. That is why the main aim is to produce secondary raw materials from paper, glass, plastic and metal, to compost and to collect the ISSN: ISBN:

2 hazardous material separately in accordance with the Best Available Technology. By this the needed landfill capacity and territorial demand could be decreased therefore the environmental load caused by the landfills would be mitigated. Further aim is to improve the environmental consciousness of the inhabitants for the success of the project. 2 Materials and methods Parmenides EIDOS is a decision support software, specially developed for the economy and the corporate management. It comprises ten modules, which make up a whole decision cycle and by the visualization techniques could help the decision making process in different fields. There are five core reasoning tools, three support tools and two data visualization tools. These provide an innovative approach to managing the entire decision making process by visualizing complex situations, by helping to reconcile different positions of different decision makers, and supporting the identification of possible courses of action. It also assist in analyzing proposed solutions against established metrics and developing implementation plans. The software uses the group decision making technique, beside which the scientific literature lines many reasons up. One of its advantages is the incitement, since working in a group encourages greater achievement. The complete group has more information than either of its members alone. The members of the group can learn from each other, with which could improve the performance, too. In groups the evaluation becomes more objective and the creativity develops since the members possess different background knowledge, so they can put to use the information in other way. The authors used the toolkits of EIDOS to get experiences about its usefulness in the process of the waste management system planning. The work was built on the method of brainstorming leaning on the earlier studies about the waste management condition of the region and taking into consideration the legal requirements of course. 3 Results The module Conceptual Overview is a tool of the software built on the group-technique, which can be used to map complex, multidimensional relationships between project components in a 3D space. Sixteen factors were collected seen in Table 1, which are important in terms of the examined project. Table1 The collected factors that are important in the process ISSN: ISBN:

3 Fig. 1 The tension structuring molecule with the module Conceptual Overview Fig. 2 The simplified decision situation After defining the factors the relationships were rated between each pair of factors by a value from zero to 10. Negative values were not added, because there were no factors that have a meaning contrary to each other. As a result, the model shows the relationships in a tension-structuring molecule (Fig. 1), with the placement of the elements based on the combined calculation of all relationships, so it evaluates the synergies and tensions among them. Those elements which sticks out from the model were removed thus the decision situation would be simpler (Fig. 2). With the model, the most important fields of the problem brought up can be found easier. In this case, these are the public support, the operational costs, the risk on the human health and the environment, the modern technology, the landfill capacity minimizing, the energy recovery and the sustainability. These are the main goals that have to be fulfilled in the waste management system. The Situation Analysis tool helps to reveal the nature of a problem. In Fig. 3, the situation analysis chart is shown with the barriers and driving forces of the project. These factors are linked with arrows to define the relationships between them. Green arrows show increasing impacts that means relationships that reinforce the target factor. Red arrows indicate decreasing impacts also relationships that counterbalance or mitigate the target factor. Arrow thickness refers to the strength of the impact. Though all factors in the Situation Analysis are important to the problem, some of them are likely to be more relevant for further analysis than others. Using the Active/Passive Map generated to the chart, key factors are easier to be identified. All of them are represented by a numbered ball in compliance with the chart. These positions are determined by the inputs and outputs of the components. Looking at the figure it becomes unambiguous, which are the key-problems, where effects have to be moderated. In the Active/Passive Map, factors at the top such marketing are active, they drive other factors. Any actions one take regarding the active factor will have a ripple effect on the other factors. Factors to the right are passive, they are driven by other factors and are therefore likely to be factors that are outcomes or goals, such as public support or the financing in this case. Key factors tend to be both active and passive and are placed especially the upper right section. These have the strongest links to the other factors; changes in those factors will have the most influence on the other barriers and driving forces of the problem. Therefore, concentrating attention on these key factors will have the most significant impact on the project. In this case, the successful competition and the satisfying regional relationship need to be marked as the most important factors since without them the project would not be developed at all. Without successful marketing the regional relationships cannot be improved and the public support would not be reached sufficiently. That is why it is needed to lay more stress on it than earlier. The most important fields of the group decision making are the methods in connected to generating ideas, systematization, analysis for example brainstorming and classification. ISSN: ISBN:

4 Fig. 3 Situation Analysis chart Fig. 4 Active/Passive Map Those methods are also important, with which the different versions can be evaluated on the strength of several viewpoints simultaneously. The Option Evaluation module of the software provides an opportunity to this. Effort to evaluate the alternatives with numbers is a general tendency in the computer-aided decision-making systems. This module evaluates options according to weighted criteria in multiple views and then makes a comparison among the options. By affecting the choice among the options created by generating rankings from the evaluation, it supports an improved decision-making. Three technological alternatives were examined by the developers of the environmental impact study of the Middle-Danube Region Waste Managements System to manage the problems in regional level. The alternatives differ from each other in the treatment technology referring to the municipal waste that constitutes the biggest part of the produced quantity. Mechanical-biological pre-treatment then fractionating are the central elements in version A. The fine fraction would be used for recultivation; the rough fraction would be deposited in landfills. The municipal waste would be transported directly to incinerator, where waste heat utilization would be possible in case of realizing version B. While in version C, fuel material with high heating value would be turned out from the rough fraction received from the fractionating after the mechanical-biological pre-treatment. This fuel material would be used for electric energy production. The technology of treating the smaller waste fractions is the same within the scope of the three alternatives due to their characteristics and the legal requirements. By the reason of these, the green waste would be chipped and classified before recycling and the separate collection of the hazardous waste would be solved, too. [2] In Fig. 5, the evaluation of the alternatives is visible. The criteria are the goals defined with the Conceptual Overview and are weighted according to the members opinion on importance of the goals in 2012, the years by ISSN: ISBN:

5 Fig. 5 The evaluation of the alternatives gathering headquarters of the zones. It was carried out with cluster-analysis and it does not form the part of this paper. Fig. 6 Ranking among the alternatives when the investment should have been fully developed. The three alternatives are defined as options in the matrix and rated with a value from -10 to 10 according to each goal. The analysis charts based on the entered data into the matrix present a ranking among the alternatives. These diagrams support the experts arguments for version C. The examined software is not able to appoint the 4 Conclusion Some of the modules of the software Parmenides EIDOS are presented in this paper which appeared to be useful to support the decision-making connected to Middle-Danube Region Waste Management System procedure. The Conceptual Overview tool can be used successfully in the beginning of the process to get a clear overview about the main goals which should lead the decision makers during the implementation planning. The Situation Analysis shed light upon the importance of the marketing. It is important particularly in the case of the incinerator that has put up a significant resistance among the population. To convince the population of the necessity of the incinerator and the waste management system in general the Option Evaluation tool could be really advantageous due to the expressive visualization. References [1] Hugh Wilkins, The need for subjectivity in EIA, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, No. 23, 2003, pp [2] András Diószegi, Middle-Danube Region Waste Management System, Feasibility study, 2008 ISSN: ISBN: