Argentine potential Unconventional resources. November 2014

Transcription

1 Argentine potential Unconventional resources November

2 Disclaimer Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF s future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF s plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF s control or may be difficult to predict. YPF s actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in Item 3. Key Information Risk Factors and Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects in YPF s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur. Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized. These materials do not constitute an offer for sale of YPF S.A. bonds, shares or ADRs in the United States or otherwise. 2

3 Oil and gas are predominant in Argentina s primary energy supply Oil & Gas as % of total energy requirements 85% 72% 65% 64% 63% 57% 23% 100% 90% 80% 70% Renewables Hydro electricity Nuclear energy Coal Natural gas Oil 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Argentina Peru Europe United States Chile Brazil China Source: B. P. Statistical Review of World Energy

4 Significant upside in the unconventional resource base NOROESTE CHACO PARANAENSE Oil Potential (Bbbls) 4.4 Gas Potential (Tcf) 29 CUYANA NEUQUINA GOLFO SAN JORGE AUSTRAL Conventional (Oil 3P + Resources) Unconventional (resources) 27 Conventional (Gas 3P + Resources) Unconventional (resources) 802 Source: Secretaria de Energia / U.S. Energy Information Administration (DOE) / Advanced Resources International (ARI), th in unconventional oil resources worldwide 2nd in unconventional gas resources worldwide 4

5 Eagle Ford (Texas) is an appropriate comparison to Vaca Muerta This basin produces roughly the equivalent of Argentina s oil & gas production Surface / Eagle Ford Vs. Vaca Muerta (E.F.~1/3 de V.M.) Oil Production Eagle Ford Exclusive Shale / bbl/d Gas Production Eagle Ford Exclusive Shale / Mm3/d Argentina Petróleo: m3/d Gas: m3/d Pozos: Vaca Muerta Inversión ~45 mil millones b U$S Eagle Ford Wells : CAPEX: US$~45Bn 35 0,06 1,5 9, Argentina 2013 Source: Railroad Commission of Texas Production Data Query System (PDQ) 5

6 Main unconventional features USA (2013 Shale) wells/year ( total) Investment/year +US$ M Employment +2,4 M Argentina (Shale just starting) +270 total wells Total investment +US$ M Employment We have the potential to replicate the US shale boom Source: IHS + EIA + YPF 6

7 Argentine potential Unconventional resources 7

8 Unconventional: Increase in activity Investment growth Significant activity increase ~1.800 Drilling Rigs end 3Q 2014 Wells on Production **Forecast As of 2Q ** Abr 2012 Dic 2012 Dic YTD 8

9 Unconventional production increase Shale development* (Bbls/d) Oil (bbls/d) Natural Gas Development Gas (km 3 /d) Wells on production Current Production boe/day * Current unconventional production NOV equals % of YPF production in the Neuquen Basin Operated gross production at field level (LoCa, Band,LaCh,Bañ,ElOr;PYga) 9

10 Increased production reversing decline The increase in YPF s production enabled a reduction in LNG projected imports Natural Gas Million m 3 /d Oil kbbls/d ,7% vs 3Q ,6% vs 3Q = Former Management Difference current management * Includes YSUR y P Hernandez 10

11 Unconventional Development in Loma Campana Pilot Investment (MUSD) 2014 Activity Investment (MUSD) Number of wells Number of wells to drill Rigs Direct and indirect employment Complete Development Number of Producing Wells Oil Production Plateau Loma Campana 290 km 2 Neuquen Basin Vaca Muerta (bbl/d) Gas Production Plateau (Km 3 /d) 11 11

12 Republic of Argentina Neuquina Basin Neuquén Province Unconventional Play Maturity Cycle Exploration Delineation Pilot Development Decline TOC Thickness Thermal Prop Dist of TOC GOR Completion Strategy Testing Frac Intensity Well-type Eagle Ford Duvernay Vaca Muerta Loma Campana Factory Mode Development Optimization Scale Back Drilling Abandonment Wolfcamp Sweet Spot Gate Maturity 12

13 La Amarga Chica Unconventional Pilot First Stage Initial Investment (MUSD) Complete Development Investment (MUSD) (475 Petronas / 75 YPF) Number of Wells Number of Wells Loma Campana 187 km 2 Neuquen Basin Vaca Muerta Scheduled start date 3 year project with annual phases Petronas Association subject to compliance with precedent conditions YPF is the operator Possibility to continue in Factory Mode Stage based on expected results 13

14 Development of two unconventional natural gas pilots in El Orejano and Rincón del Mangrullo El Orejano Pilot Plan Area Investment 45km 2 (11,090 acres) 188 Mill. USD Dow, initial investment 120 Mill. USD Number of Wells 16 Drilling Rigs 2 Loma Campana Neuquen Basin Vaca Muerta Rincón del Mangrullo Area 183km 2 (45,000 acres) Pilot Plan Investment 233 Mill. USD Number of Wells 42 Pampa, initial investment Mill. USD 14

15 Chemicals in YPF Strong position to monetize E&P production 15

16 Chemicals in YPF: a strong position to monetize E&P production Proved CIE reserves: (Industrial 85 Cluster M boe Ensenada) % liquids: 98 % gas: YPF: 2 100% Production: Aromatics 8.8 M (kt/y) boe BTX: 515 (Benzene, Toluene, Mixed Xylenes) Orthoxylene: 25 Ciclohexane: 95 Solvents: 66 C Olefins Derivatives (kt/y) MTBE: 60 Butene I: 25 Oxoalcohols: 35 TAME: 105 LAB/LAS (kt/y) LAB: 52 LAS: 25 Polybutenes (kt/a) PIB: 26 Maleic (kt/y) Maleic Anhydride: 18 Propylene: 120 kt/y A #1 Petrochemical Producer D A C B Plaza Huincul Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: YPF: 2 100% Production: Methanol: M boe kt/y Profertil B YPF: 50% Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: Agrium: 8.850% M boe Urea: 1,100 kt/y D Luján de Cuyo Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: YPF: 2 100% Production: Propylene: 8.8 M 80 boe kt/y 3 chemical complexes A C B Capacity Aromatics 24% Others 11% Olefins 9% Sales (USD) Sales (t) Tones per year Urea 40% Methanol 16% 1,249 M 1,7 M 2013 figures, including 50% interest in Profertil / K: thousands; M: million 16

17 YPF Chemicals Projects CCR CIE - Start up Aug kmt aromatics MUSD Investment Top reformer in Argentina Profertil Revamp Start up Nov MUSD Investment + 11 % Urea Production ( -10 %) Natural Gas per Urea ton ( -24 %) Electric Power purchase Project Portfolio LAS Revamp A (Under construction Start up 2015) LAB Revamp A (Status Engineering Start up 2017) Methanol Revamp B (Status Engineering Start up 2017) B A 17

18 Petrochemicals in Argentina 2025 Vision 3,5 9,5 Otros 27% 16% PE 8% 4% PP PVC Urea 25% 8% 12% PET CIQyP Plan 2025 (M ton.) Metanol Petrochemical Argentina Market presents good opportunities to increase capacity with World Scale Complexes and full integration to domestic raw material supply. 18

19 Opportunities for the Petrochemical Industry The development of massive shale gas resources will signify strategic input availability at competitive prices. We are working together with other Companies towards new projects so as to expand the petrochemical industry in Argentina, focusing on the availability of new raw materials. 19

20 OUR ENERGY 20