Why WebRTC is essential to all telcos and OTT players

Transcription

1 Why WebRTC is essential to all telcos and OTT players WebRTC Hong Kong Forum -- How WebRTC will transform business communication and collaboration Dr CW Cheung ( 張智華 ) Research Fellow, Consulting Director, Asia-Pacific Ovum Europe Limited [email protected] Date: 21 January Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is an Informa business

2 About Ovum Ovum the global brand in ICT research and consulting for nearly 30 years Now part of $2B Informa Group Advising on the commercial impact of technology and market changes in telecoms, software and IT services Over 300 ICT analysts & consultants worldwide Blue-chip client base: top tiers SP, vendors, government, etc. We have 12 offices across the globe and more through our associates. Our 300 experts worked in more than 50 countries in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), the Americas, and Asia Pacific. 2

3 Introductions: About Dr CW Cheung More than 30 years in ICT industry: substantial research & consulting knowledge in fixed (telephony, broadband, cable TV), wireless and mobile business operations regulatory consulting expert in ICT Policies & Regulations for government & regulators, operators, vendors, financial institutions policy and strategy advice on Digital Economy, and use of ICT for innovations Active speaker at leading industry events including roles as chair, moderator, keynote speech speaker, etc. in ITU, APT, APAC TEL GSMA, Mobile Asia Congress Asia Broadband Summit, Asia Mobile Broadband Summit, LTE Summit, Wireless China Summit, Carrier World, Asia Cloud Honorary Doctor in Telecoms, MBA (distinction), M.Sc.(Eng) (distinction), DIC, M.Sc.(e-Commerce), B.Sc. Market overview of WebRTC The big picture of Voice Ovum s views -- Implications of WebRTC to Telcos and OTT players Service and application innovation potential -- from messaging and video conferencing to digital services to TV Advisor to operators associations in Greater China. Honorary lecturer of Higher Degree courses in the University of Hong Kong 3

4 Agenda Market overview of WebRTC The big picture of Voice Ovum s views -- Implications of WebRTC to Telcos and OTT players Service and application innovation potential -- from messaging and video conferencing to digital services to TV 4

5 Market overviews WebRTC Initiative -- a free, open project by Goggle, Mozilla and Opera, that enables web browsers with Real-Time Communications (RTC) capabilities via simple JavaScript APIs, also supported by Ericsson and Microsoft though in different extent and objective. Desktop browser, e.g. Mozilla s Firefox for Windows, Mac and Linux in June 2013 Mobile browser, e.g. Mozilla introduced new Firefox for Android compatibility across mobile and desktop in September

6 WebRTC timeline Because of various issues, there will have small / moderate impact to the communications markets in the next 2-3 years (before 2016) 6

7 WebRTC architecture 7

8 WebRTC components (1) WebRTC is based on technology: Open-sourced by Goggle in 2010 Javascript APIs Codec (VP8 codec) On-going development of APIs: Network Stream API (for voice & video stream) PeerConnection API (for browser-to-browser) DataChannel API (for communication of other data) Current limitations: No Identity No Signaling No related communications service (e.g. voic , multipoint calling) Concerns over security, etc. 8

9 WebRTC components (2) Codec opens up great dispute among major market heavyweights, e.g. November 2013 IETF meeting in Vancouver H.264 vs VP8 Stakeholders of H.264 Cisco sold tons of videoconferencing equipment to enterprises Apple, Ericsson and Nokia, MPEG LA hold patents in H.264 Stakeholders of VP8 Goggle acquired the VP8 codec specialist On2 Technologies in 2009 Mozilla seemingly won over by Cisco s free distributed H.264 code in Firefox Microsoft s CU-RTC (short for Customizable, Ubiquitous Real Time Communication over the Web ) to allow flexibility in media data formats and choice of codecs 9

10 WebRTC strategic issues take years to resolution. Be reminded of Hype! -- Not enable anything that s not currently possible today, e.g. need a communication channel or hosting agent Evolving / ratifying standards in IETF, W3C. Limitations: No Identity, signalling and VAS Open standards do not necessarily lead open platforms! Potential of content/application rich voice/video communications Web Real-time Communications an emerging new open technology standard that enables real-time voice and video communications and data sharing in HTML-5 based web browsers, without the need for third-party plugins or applications (e.g. Adobe Flash, Oracle s Java platform, VoIP & videoconferencing applications) Threats & opportunities: peer-to-peer applications inter-operability between browsers Threats to massive developed proprietary software and client applications: competition and resistance New market Opportunities: enterprise environments, TVs, automotive applications, information kiosks 10

11 Current market rivalry Market rivalry amongst ISV (e.g. Microsoft, Goggle, Apple), vendors (Ericsson, Cisco), Telcos, OTT VoIP players (Skype, Apple), OTT players (integrated services, social web), and developer community (VoIP and general browser applications) Browser competition: Microsoft IE, Goggle/Mozilla/Opera, Apple Safari OTT VoIP Microsoft Skype, Apple Facetime Consumer and Enterprise communications service providers: Desktop dominance by Microsoft PC software + Skype client Goggle to add WebRTC to Hangouts video-conferencing service Potential threats to enterprise video-conferencing equipment vendors, e.g. Cisco Changing consumer communications on new operating devices UC & BYOD, e.g. smartphones and tablets Threats and opportunities to Telcos in enterprise video-conferencing and UC communications Codec H.264 vs VP8 vs Microsoft s CU-RTC 11

13 Revenue in millions Telcos Voice revenues are eroding even without VoIP Fixed CAGR ( ): -2.4% $800,000 Mobile CAGR ( ): -0.8% $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $ Mobile Fixed 13

14 Impact of OTT players on traditional Telcos Estimated $52bn revenues lost to OTT VoIP globally in % of fixed voice, and 3.5% mobile voice revenues in 2016 Mobile voice substitution by VoIP will accelerate after introduction of IPbased LTE network, e.g. VoLTE Estimated $32.6bn SMS revenues lost to OTT social messaging in Internet applications in majority adoption categories are going mobile, especially of impact of video OTT players and the internet have loosened Telcos customer gatekeeping position threat to operator relevance 14

15 Threat of OTT VoIP In 2020, OTT VoIP will cost Telcos $71bn in lost revenues, or 9% of total voice revenues. $71bn $52bn 15

17 WebRTC is a potential disruptive technology? Some past disruption technologies: Digital technology disrupted analogue technology IP technology disrupted TDM-based vertically-integrated technologies, operations and business models.. Unified Communications (UC) combines voice, video, chat/message and mobility iphone disrupts the way of communications over a phone. In the longer term WebRTC has potential to disrupt the business communications markets by removing telephone and soft phone clients or applications from the centre of communications experience Threats: do away the traditional communications experience in both enterprises and consumer markets (i.e. telephone, corporate PAX / PABX systems, or soft phone clients on terminals/devices); Opportunities: new ways of communications (e.g. embedded communications) via wide range of web-based applications, e.g. text, messaging, , social media, online gaming, etc. The new standard may lead to greater level of inter-operability between different communications services (clients and applications) To level playing field of technology, and enable new entrants for enriched ecosystems Likely to lead to a range of new OTT services that rival Microsoft Skype and Apple Facetime 17

18 Implication to enterprise services Enterprise should expect consumerization of IT and BYOD trends to result in employee usage in workplace Consumer use of WebRTC apps will also impact the way enterprises communicate with their customers, e.g. browser-based communications to provide a new way to reach sales personnel and customer service representatives Innovations driver in customer support differentiations by enterprises UC solutions will natively support WebRTC in software-based communications platforms Telcos, CSPs and small OTT new entrants have simpler and cost-effective means to create innovative new business communications solutions to challenge the market heavyweights Ovum s view: Challenges will continue: immature technology, corporate politics of market heavyweights; economics of new communications solutions; enterprise s users acceptance to new communications, etc. WebRTC will offer a sub-standard set of communications features compared to the UC solutions and services currently in the market, and WebRTC software will complement rather than replace the UC solutions, video-conferencing platforms, and UC services 18

19 Opportunities to Telcos Telco to build their own web conferencing services, or improve existing ones Telco to build entire web communications platforms, leveraging on their existing infrastructure, to offer wholesale platform services to third party developers or partners Telco to own communications services by engaging developer community (and providing APIs and JavaScript libraries) to develop applications on operator s network for improved revenue and monetization: AT&T with Twilio Deutsche Telecom with Voxeo Telefonica acquired TokBox Telco to offer it s own OTT services by either competition, or partnership with small to medium OTT players (see next slide for response strategy) Telco to augment software competence in-house or partnership 19

20 Ovum s OTT response strategy framework (1) WebRCT help remove barriers in new web-based communications services. It will facilitate response strategies Compete, Partner and Join Compete Partner If you can t beat them, join them Protect / Stave off Wait and see 20

21 Ovum s OTT response strategy framework (2) OTT players Internet TV providers E.g. Hulu, Netflix Application developers E.g. WhatsApp, Nimbuzz Online retailers E.g. Amazon, Alibaba Online portals E.g. Tencent, MSN, Yahoo! Social networks E.g. Facebook, Cyworld Device and OS vendors E.g. Apple, Google, Samsung, Microsoft Content producers Search providers E.g. Google, Baidu E.g. Disney, Universal, Warner Brothers CE vendors E.g. Sony, Samsung Consumer services Voice, messaging, TV and video, games, music, commerce, social media The telco response Not mutually exclusive DIY VASs Differentiate with VASs Use telco networks to provide VASs Harness the web for OTT services Service partnerships Partner to offer third-party OTT services Provide third-party OTT services as part of the telco offering Engage with OTT players to integrate services Become an OTT player Joint ventures, acquisitions, and investments in OTT services Deep integration with and adoption of OTT services, distribution, and business models Smart enablement Smart enablement of OTT services Leverage telco assets such as billing, network application programming interfaces, customer insights/analytics, and security tools Connectivity Manage connectivity to OTT services and players Defensive strategies capping or OTT taxes Offensive strategies managed connectivity/ wholesale 21

23 Operators expect a lot from VoLTE 23

24 Potential service innovations WebRTC-enabled embedded communications and data sharing in messaging, video, apps, game, collaborations (following the development of PeerConnection and DataChannel APIs, etc.) video embedded applications will dominate in mobility applications (2/3 of world mobile traffic in video by 2015) Web-enabled Unified Communications for employees leveraging on consumer trend of IT and BYOD Native integration of WebRTC into UC and contact center solutions (e.g. new communications from customer to sales or customer service agent) Telco s opportunities open for non-qos and QoS communications applications Innovative communications services in environments which do not allow installation of browser plug-in or standalone applications: 24 Company-managed devices TVs and other consumer electronics, e.g. vertical M2M applications in smart grid, healthcare, etc. Automotive applications, e.g. connected cars Information kiosks, e.g. service storefronts