Cable and DSL Market. Market Study and Forecast for Embedded Planet. Sujan Manandhar Database Marketing Manager. Embedded Planet

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1 Cable and DSL Market Market Study and Forecast for Sujan Manandhar Database Marketing Manager

2 Broadband - Intro The World broad band market is enormous and expanding. The value of the global broadband market will exceed $580 billion over the next 10 years (through 2010.) (Source - Comsys) What is Broadband? Always on, 2 way data transmission with substantial capacity to carry info. High speed access T1, ISDN, Cable, DSL, ATM, wireless, etc FCC defines Bband as 200+ Kbits/sec Broadband for SOHO and residential is Usually via cable, DSL, Wireless Cable Modems use coax to provide 10MBits/sec, but sharing reduces DSL converts standard phone lines to high speed access 8MB downstream & 1 MB upstream Wireless - Frequencies of 900MHz, 2.4GHz, and 5.8GHz (avg.)

3 Market for EP The global broadband market is expanding at a rapid pace There is a large market for broadband related hardware and software Most larger companies have dedicated high speed access hence this market is hard to penetrate EP should pursue the SOHO and residential mkt. The demand for Small and Medium office broadband connectivity is predicted to reach 100 million, and 600 million for households by (Source - Comsys) The current wave for home and SOHO is next generation cable and DSL (before it switches to something else ATM, Power Line, wireless). has potential customers in the Cable Modem and DSL modem market (Netcomm Planet, Solar Flare (?), E-Pig, & upcoming products).

4 SOHO market As of April 2000, 65% of small to medium businesses have connections to the Internet, with 11% of those connected via broadband (DSL and cable modems have nearly equal penetration among these businesses.) By 2002, 30% of these businesses will have a high-speed connection. (Source - Insight)

5 Residential Market The residential broad band mkt. is huge: By 2000, over 30 million European homes will have on-line enabled PCs By the end of 2000, 9,800,000 European homes will be equipped with digital set top boxes - (Source Data monitor) Asia will experience twice the demand of the U.S. (Source - Comsys) Europe, Asia, & Latin America will account for major share of networking hdwr. revenues. (Source - In Stat) The US SOHO and Residential Market is also large U.S. market for residential high-speed Internet services is expected to grow from 1.4 million in 1999 to 3.3 million subs this year 25% (16 million) or of all online households in the U.S. will have highspeed connectivity to the Internet by 2002

6 Demand Most of high speed internet is moving towards cable. Hence the cable modem market has been expanding: Cable modem use will grow from 5.7 million installed systems in 2000 to 27.6 million systems in (Computer Econ) Modem prices will fall to $209 by 2001 DSL demand is also picking up: 456,000 DSL accounts at the end of 1999 Between 2000 and 2005, the installed base of DSL lines to increase from 2.4 million to 13.8 million. DSL accounts range from $50 to $200 a month, depending on the number of users.

7 Applications Some of the applications include: High-speed Internet access Corporate LAN Access ecommerce Telecommuting / VPN Distance learning Video-On-Demand VoIP / IP dialtone Video conferencing Medical imaging Real-time information exchange Entertainment

8 Fist Fight By the end of 2000, U.S. installed base of cable modems will reach 2 million, compared with an IB of 1.1 million DSL lines for the same period. (Source Insight) Cable modems are leading the residential broadband market with nearly twice as many subs as competing DSL services. About 41% of all U.S. homes will have access to a cable modem service by the end of 2000, compared to 24% for DSL. (Source Yankee Group) Cable will dominate the residential broadband market for the next until In 2003, DSL will overtake cable modems in market share. (Source- IDC)

9 Performance Battle 40 page download Test conducted by Keynote Systems : Internet Connection Seconds Per Web Page (smaller numbers are better and indicate faster performance) During Peak Personal Hours (5 pm - 11 pm) During Business Hours (8 am - 5 pm) Performance Change At Peak Usage Time DSL (128/384) % faster Cable Modem % slower T-1 (Typical Connection at Work) % faster

10 Comparison Cable and DSL Overall comparison: Feature Cable xdsl Speed 3 million bps 384K-640K bps Performance vs. 56K Up to 50 times faster 7-11 times faster Shared Bandwidth Yes No 1998 Installed Base 450,000 to 500,000 25,000 Approx. Cost Setup: US$ Monthly: $US 40 Setup: US$ Monthly: $US

11 Cable Modem Big Players World Mkt. Share (1999) Motorola: 35%; Terayon: 12.5%; Com21: 11.1%; Nortel: 10.1% Com21 has a 8% share and Terayon has 7% Motorola and Nortel represented 80% of the North American market share in 1998 Nortel was the market leader in Latin America and Europe Terayon was the leader in the Asia/Pacific Rim sector

12 Cable Modem Mkt. Share Worldwide shipments for Q'1 exceeded 1.4 million cable modems, with 61% DOCSIS, 40% proprietary, and 0.2% DVB/DAVIC. Shipments are projected to exceed 5.5 million for the year. (Source Dataquest) Q' Market Share Vendor Shipments Market Share % Motorola 490, Terayon 173, Com21 154, Samsung 125, Toshiba 122, Others 412, Total 1,476,

13 DOCSIS market Worldwide DOCSIS shipments surpassed 700,000 units, compared to approximately 675,000 proprietary modem shipments. 30+ vendors are developing DOCSIS cable modems 3Com, Samsung, RCA, Motorola (&GI), and Toshiba represented 90% of DOCSIS market N. American DOCSIS modem shipments- 570,000 Q1 (2000) 305,000 Q Motorola shipped 275,000 GI DOCSIS modems worldwide in Q1 Toshiba - 122,000 units, up from 65,000 in Q Thomson's shipped 100,000 units 3Com's shipped 86,000 units DOCSIS network equipment sales will exceed $3 billion through 2003 DOCSIS-based services will pass 83% of cable homes in North America by year-end 2003 (Source - Kinetic Strategies)

14 CMTS Cisco had captured more than 75 percent of all DOCSIS upstream and downstream CMTS port shipments. Arris, Com21, Motorola, Ericsson and Terayon Communication Systems are also developing DOCSIS 1.1 CMTS solutions New DOCSIS CMTS start-ups - Broadband Access Systems, Cadant, RiverDelta Networks, etc. (Source Kinetic Strategies)

15 DSL modem Mkt. share Efficient Networks 24.5% Mkt Share. Alcatel 21% Fujitsi/Orckit 17.4% Cisco 17.3% (ADSL modem shipments for Q1 2000)

16 Summary No doubt that market for broad band and related products is enormous. But several large and small players have a hold in the market. Market in the next 2-3 years is heading to cable modems. Predicted to shift to DSL (if the technology improves).

17 EP Market Strategy Both cable and DSL modems are related to current line of EP products. Pursue the SOHO and residential market where demand is larger, and mkt. penetration is slightly easier. EP needs customers and alliances with next gen. Cable modem and DSL modem manufacturers. We can leverage this client base and alliances to market next stage of EP products.

18 More information More on cable modems: More on DSL modems: Contact - Sujan Manadhar