FISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil
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1 FISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil XXXIX Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries April 10, 2014
2 2 The world is facing a dilemma: growth or fiscal restraint Growth outlook in advanced economies is still mixed and not enough to spread consistent effects to EMs However, consolidation fiscal policies (associated with monetary normalization) are advancing in important advanced economies High debt ratios remain in a scenario of persistently low growth amid advanced economies However, narrower budget deficits foresee stable debt ratios in
3 3 3 The golden question remains: Could consolidation fiscal policy be expansionary in such circumstance? 1. For some EMs, with manageable debt-to-gdp ratio but under lack of confidence, it could work well Consolidation can restore the near-term confidence rather than being contractionary. 2. And also only for some AEs in scenario of recovery under high debt-to-gdp ratio. 3. However, with no recovery ahead combined with high debt-to-gdp ratio recommends to smooth or even to put a break on the monetary normalization process Consolidation can have a perverse effect on the debt-to-gdp ratios.
4 4 Brazil has graduated in terms of the policy response to crises 4 High level of international reserves as liquidity cushion in case of change in the international humors (FED tapering ). Elevated FDI inflows: US$65.8 billion (12-months accumulated in Feb 2014). Soundness in the fiscal front: high primary surpluses, decreasing debt ratios, length debt and increase in debt maturity. Inflation rate regime since 1999 lead to inflation under control; further decreases in inflation rates have already been addressed. Solid and prudential banking and financial system Large consumer market and even larger opportunities.
5 5 This time is quite different to Brazil: solid macroeconomic fundamentals allows the country to use policy responses External Vulnerability Indicators (% of GDP) 5 Source: BCB Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
6 6 Different from old time, international reserves reduce external vulnerability to a negligible level * February Source: Central Bank of Brazil Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
7 7 Strong external debt indicators (3Q 2013) 7 Source: World Bank (excluding intercompany debt) Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
8 8 Leading destination for FDI * China includes Hong Kong ** Preliminary data 8 Source: UNCTAD Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
9 9 In a indebted world, Brazil seems quite normal Nominal Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2013 and Source: IMF (WEO, October 2013) Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
10 10 In a indebted world, Brazil seems quite normal Structural Nominal Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2013 and 2014 Source: 10 IMF (WEO, October 2013) Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
11 11 Fiscal consolidation process: commitment to reach the primary surplus in 2014 * For figures preceding 2002, the historical data includes Petrobras and Eletrobras. ** Estimative 11 Source: Central Bank of Brazil Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
12 12 Fiscal Solvency risk negligible: Debt-to-GDP ratios in a downward trend Gross and Net Debt to GDP (%) * According to Financial Programming Decree of 2014 Source: 12 IMF and Central Bank of Brazil Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
13 13 Brazilian gross debt is relatively low according to the international experience Gross Debt of Selected Countries (% of GDP): Source: BCB and IMF (WEO, October 2013) Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
14 14 Ten consecutive years of year-end inflation within target band 14 Source: Central Bank of Brazil Produced by: Secretariat of Economic Policy/Ministry of Finance
15 15 Fiscal Agenda in Brazil Debt sustainability is no longer a major issue since early 2000s (no solvency risk). The required consolidated public sector primary surpluses to stabilize debt-to-gdp ratio have been lower than the target ones (it is getting easier to decrease debt ratio over time). Intensifying the lengthening of domestic debt is also an important policy goal. Focus on the quality of public spending and on the effectiveness of public policies lead to fiscal intertemporal relief. 15
16 FISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil XXXIX Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries April 10, 2014
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