Innovating for the future The roles of corporate foresight in innovation management

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Ira Webster
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1 Innovating for the future The roles of corporate foresight in innovation management Technische Universität Berlin & European Center for Information and Communicaton Technology (EICT GmbH)

2 What will we talk about?

3 Why is this research relevant?

4 Introduction. Motivation The average life expectancy of Fortune 500 companies is below 50 years De Geus The living company European Industrial Research Management Association Effectively detecting and answering to disruptions will prove crucial for large companies in order to succeed in our fast moving environment European Industrial Research Management Association, 2006, Conference on Benchmarking R&D Processes Corporate Executive Board Research and Technology Management Council TM Although sensing and anticipating are not particularly difficult, building an organizational structure that facilitates an effective response can prove challenging. Corporate Executive Board, Research & Technology Executive Council, 2007, Report on Management of Disruptions 4

fast moving environment European Industrial Research Management Association, 2006, Conference on Benchmarking R&D Processes Corporate Executive Board Research and Technology Management Council

5 What do we know so far?

6 Three research perspectives Radical innovations National foresight perspective (macro) Gemünden et al. (2007) O Connor (2006, 2001) Stevens, Burley (2003) Chandy, Tellis (2000, 1998) Leifer (1997) Henderson (1993) Disruptions Tellis (2006) Markides (2006) Danneels (2004) Arnold (2003) Christensen (1997) Innovation management Corporate Foresight Futures studies Cuhls (2001, 2003) Grupp, Linstone (1999) Martin (1995) Gerybadze (1994) Corporate perspective (micro) Müller(2008) Nick (2008) Rollwagen (2008) Day, Shoemaker (2004, 2006) Roll (2004) Becker (2002) Bondu (2001) Krystek, Müller-Stewens (1993) Wack (1985) Strategic management Corporate Change and Ambidexterity Stadler, Hinterhuber (2005) De Geus (1997) Romanelli, Tushman (1994) Mintzberg, Westley (1992) Bahrami (1992) Henderson, Clark (1990) Tushman et al.(1985) Utterback, Abernathy (1975) Environmental scanning May et al. (2000) Elenkov (1997) Thomas et al. (1993) Daft et al. (1998) Ireland et al. (1987) Jain (1984) Daft, Weick (1984) Hambrick (1982) Decision making Nutt (2007) Arendt (2005) Judge, Douglas (1998) Schwenk (1984) 6

(1997) Innovation management Corporate Foresight Futures studies Cuhls (2001, 2003) Grupp, Linstone (1999) Martin (1995) Gerybadze (1994) Corporate perspective (micro) Müller(2008) Nick (2008)

7 Past research Perspectives Motivation for research Strategic management Innovation management There is a need for ambidextrous capabilities Interpretation should be done by top management and information gathering by boundary spanners. High performing companies have strong scanning systems Incumbents are slow and ignorant and they need specific structures to succeed in times of disruptive change. Need for collaborative assessment by top management Committed individuals are the key.. Future studies Need to move toward participatory foresight. Need for better linkage of information gathering and taking actions. 7

High performing companies have strong scanning systems Incumbents are slow and ignorant and they need specific structures to succeed in times of

8 Research questions. Research Questions 1 What are the value contributions of corporate foresight? 2 What roles does corporate foresight play within innovation management? Methodological challenges Allow generalizability to multiple industries Ensure sufficient triangulation Bring in the user of foresight results as an informant. 8

2 What roles does corporate foresight play within innovation management?

9 What we did?

10 Data. Data sources 18 case studies in 7 countries Data collection instruments 106Interviews (80% transcribed) 38 Internal documents 12 benchmark talks 18 Publications (From case-study participant) 51 Interview templates (for validation of data within the interview) 10

12 benchmark talks 18 Publications (From case-study participant)

11 Key informants. Perspectives of informants (used for triangulation) Foresight Activity Usage Responsible Internal Customer 41 Goals Organization Stakeholder Network Value creation Goals Activity team Methods Tools Process Network 28 Activity team Responsible Internal customer TOTAL Status: March

Responsible Internal Customer 41 Goals Organization Stakeholder Network Value

12 What we found?

13 Three roles. 1 Strategist Innovation process Idea generation Selection Development Commercialization 2 Initiator 3 Opponent 13

14 The Strategist Activities Example Indentify new business segments Assess and reposition R&D portfolios Create visions Consolidate opinions Identify new business models and changes in business logic Integrated method of scenario analysis and roadmapping Goal: Identification of new business potential and future key technologies 3-6 month project Input: approx. 2-4 man years n/en/publikationen/publicatio ns_pof 14

scenario analysis and roadmapping Goal: Identification of new business potential and future key technologies

15 The Initiator Activities Example Technology Perspective Identify new needs Identify new technologies Identify competitor s concepts early Technology monitoring at There are 300 technologies in very narrow monitorings, ThyssenKrupp which also forecast when the performance parameters Serial application will Continuous take specific trackingvalues of 300 and when they could go in serial Maturity technologies production. today Falk Nüßle, Head of Competence Center Automotive Solutions Technology A Market Perspective Identify new needs Identify competitor s concepts early Consumer scouting at VW 25 We VW-Managers changedlive the in a product house in portfolio in China and the USA, Malibufour new vehicles in China and three new vehicles in the USA. Presentation of insights in Wolfsburg: Stefan Liske, project manager Moonraker The Voice of America 15 15

16 The Opponent Activities Example Challenge basic assumptions Challenge state-of-the-art of current R&D projects Scan for disruptions that might endanger current and future innovations The Technology Radar Technology Foresight 60 technologies 3 editions per year The Product & Service Radar Competitor Foresight 60 products and product concepts 4 editions per year Mobile Internet 16

The Technology Radar Technology Foresight 60 technologies 3 editions per year The Product &

17 To conclude

18 Conclusion Key messages For managers For researches There is value from corporate foresight out there There are three roles to play The Strategist who explores new business fields The Initiator which increases the number of NPD concepts The Opponent which boost the quality of innovations. Ensure that these three roles are played There is still much to be explored in corporate foresight But first concepts are understood well enough to be tested 18

NPD concepts The Opponent which boost the quality of innovations.

19 Contact European Center for Information and Communication Technologies (EICT) Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, Berlin

Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin +49 30

20 Thank you for your interest!

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