USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports

Transcription

1 USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports June 30, 2016 Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics University of Tennessee Extension

2 USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports June 30, 2016 Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of Tennessee Extension Market Reaction On Thursday June 30 th corn prices received a double hit as both the Stocks and Acreage reports provided greater estimates than anticipated, precipitating an immediate 15 cent drop in corn futures. Soybean futures reacted very positively (up 40+ cents) to the reports. Soybean acreage was up but not as much as some pre report estimates and stocks, while up from last year, still indicate excellent demand. Additionally, the report removed some uncertainty for soybean bulls that were perhaps concerned about a report surprise. All four commodities had increased acreage from the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, corn was up 547 acres; soybeans up million acres; wheat up million acres; and cotton up 461 million acres. In general, above average planting conditions in much of the country and the spring price rally were contributing factors to greater acreage. Moving forward weather and macro factors will continue to drive markets. In Tennessee, compared to 2015, corn acreage was up 90,000 acres; soybeans were unchanged; wheat was down 15,000 acres; and cotton was up 90,000 acres. Compared to the March 31 st Prospective Plantings report corn acreage was up 30,000 acres; soybeans up 100,000 acres; wheat was unchanged; and cotton up 10,000 acres. Favorable planting conditions allowed Tennessee farmers to get acreage planted in a timely basis. Additionally, the spring bump in corn and soybean prices also provided incentive to plant more acres, particularly for soybeans. Corn: December corn closed at $3.71 ¼ down 11 ¾ cents. Soybeans: November soybeans closed at $11.53 ¼, up 40 ¾ cents. Cotton: December cotton closed at 64.17, down 1.68 cents. Wheat: July (2017) wheat closed at $5.02, down ½ cents.

3 USDA-NASS June Acreage Report Summary Corn planted area for all purposes in 2016 is estimated at 94.1 million acres, up 7 percent from last year. This represents the third highest planted acreage in the United States since Area harvested for grain, at 86.6 million acres, is up 7 percent from last year and represents the third highest area harvested for grain since Soybean planted area for 2016 is estimated at a record high 83.7 million acres, up 1 percent from last year. Area for harvest, at 83.0 million acres, is also up 1 percent from 2015 and will be a record high if realized. Record high planted acreage is estimated in Michigan, Minnesota, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All wheat planted area for 2016 is estimated at 50.8 million acres, down 7 percent from The 2016 winter wheat planted area, at 36.5 million acres, is down 7 percent from last year but up 1 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 26.5 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.58 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.42 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2016 is estimated at 12.1 million acres, down 8 percent from Of this total, about 11.4 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2016 is estimated at 2.15 million acres, up 11 percent from the previous year. All cotton planted area for 2016 is estimated at 10.0 million acres, 17 percent above last year. Upland area is estimated at 9.82 million acres, up 17 percent from American Pima area is estimated at 199,000 acres, up 26 percent from Table 1. Acreage Planted U.S. and Tennessee, Commodity Avg. % Change '15 to '16 U.S. Corn 91,936 97,291 95,365 90,597 87,999 94,148 92,638 7% Soybeans 75,046 77,198 76,840 83,276 82,650 83,688 79,002 1% Wheat 54,277 55,294 56,236 56,841 54,644 50,816 55,458-7% Cotton 14,735 12,264 10,407 11,037 8,580 10,023 11,405 17% Tennessee Corn 790 1, % Soybeans 1,290 1,260 1,580 1,640 1,750 1, % Wheat % Cotton % Source: USDA-NASS June Acreage Report

4 USDA-NASS June Stocks Report Summary Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 4.72 billion bushels, up 6 percent from June 1, Of the total stocks, 2.47 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 9 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.25 billion bushels, are up 3 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2016 indicated disappearance is 3.10 billion bushels, compared with 3.30 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 870 million bushels, up 39 percent from June 1, On-farm stocks totaled 281 million bushels, up 14 percent from a year ago. Offfarm stocks, at 589 million bushels, are up 55 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March - May 2016 quarter totaled 661 million bushels, down 5 percent from the same period a year earlier. Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 981 million bushels, up 30 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 197 million bushels, up 27 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 784 million bushels, are up 31 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2016 indicated disappearance is 391 million bushels, up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier. Table 2. Grain Stocks by Position 2015 and 2016, U.S to 2015 (Million bushels) Date On Off Total All On Off Total All % Change Farms Farms Positions Farms Farms Positions Total Corn 1-Mar 4,380 3,370 7,750 4,335 3,484 7,819 1% 1-Jun 2,275 2,178 4,453 2,471 2,251 4,722 6% 1-Sep 593 1,138 1,731 1-Dec 6,829 4,409 11,238 All wheat 1-Mar , ,052 1,372 20% 1-Jun % 1-Sep 650 1,447 2,097 1-Dec 503 1,243 1,746 Soybeans 1-Mar , ,531 15% 1-Jun % 1-Sep Dec 1,309 1,407 2,715 Source: USDA-NASS June Quarterly Stocks Report

5 Non-irrigated Profitability Outlook The projected profitability outlook for the 2016 crop has been updated after the release of the June 30, USDA Acreage & Grain Stocks reports. Yields used for non-irrigated estimates are a 5 year Tennessee state average year plugging in the 2015 state average projection of 160 bushels per acre for corn, 46 bushels per acre for soybeans, and 1046 pounds per acre cotton. The wheat yield of 71 bushels per acre is the 2016 June NASS estimate are for Tennessee. Prices used for 2016 are an average of prices currently offered for Fall 2016 delivery. Since the June 10 th USDA reports, prices for 2016 harvest are 54 cents lower for corn, 51 cents lower for milo, and 6 cents lower per bushel for soybeans. Since wheat harvest has about wrapped up, the June 10 th price was used. Cotton prices based on cotton buyer s pricing has stayed the same. Cotton returns do not consider any additional government payments such as the Cotton Ginning Cost Share program that was implemented for the 2015 cotton crop. It is unknown at this time whether that will be available for Certainly yield and prices received for a producer s product are major components of the profitability equation but expenses or cost are also. As input prices for the 2016 crop are being realized, cost of production has come down and may come down further depending on how producers use generic products. Since profitability estimates at the first of the year, I have reduced cotton variable expenses $27, soybeans $15, corn $13, milo $9, and wheat/soybeans $20. This is going in the right direction and could be reduced further as the season progresses. More and more producers are exploring the use of generic chemical products both through their traditional and non-traditional suppliers. Returns over variable expenses and returns over variable expenses and land costs are positive for all crops except milo. Net Returns for soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are also positive considering fixed costs for machinery and equipment and a $15 per acre management cost. The drop in corn prices has turned returns negative for corn. As prices fluctuate, producers will need to consider their net price averaging in any forward priced crops. This year s market has again turned volatile with any increases or decreases hinging on weather conditions in the U.S. and abroad mainly in South America. This has the potential to not only affect supply, but also export demand. Producers should not become complacent and take a sell all at harvest market strategy. A prudent strategy should still involve forward pricing and the use of options if so inclined. Pricing in increments on rallies is still a sound strategy. Producers will need to look closely at their plans for the 2016 crop and make adjustments where needed. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist Farm Management for assistance in developing your own budget or farm financial plan. This table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. A cotton price of 72 cents is being used in the profitability outlook. The price of 72 cents is made up of a cash price of cents and gin rebates (seed & hauling) of 7-8 cents. The cash price of cents is composed of a loan rate of 52 cents or 53 cents with a slight premium and a cent equity from the buyer.. When prices are low, cotton is redeemed out of the marketing loan program at the Adjusted World Price (AWP). This is effect helps create the loan option or equity price that producers receive. Currently, this price is in a cent range. Basically, this is a result of the way the cotton marketing loan program works. My observations and discussions with cotton buyers would indicate that if futures move above cents, then the prices to the producers would start to move up penny for penny. Producers should look at these returns as what could be if no adjustments are made in their operation and consider it a warning sign that adjustments will need to be made in 2016 to be sustainable. These estimates do not consider any USDA or crop

6 insurance payments from the new farm bill. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist Farm Management for assistance in developing your own budget or farm financial plan. This table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Cotton prices include revenue for cottonseed and hauling. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: Cotton - $ 105, Soybeans - $38, Corn - $135 (includes 170 units of N), Milo - $87, and Wheat/Soybeans - $101. Weed control costs with resistant weeds have also been difficult to estimate. These costs will vary greatly among producers and individual fields. Production costs are estimates based on the 2016 University of Tennessee Crop Budgets with adjustments made where needed. An adjustment was made in March in cotton weed control as one chemical in our budget is reportedly priced 40% less than our budgeted cost. Depending on varieties, soybean costs could also be reduced but based on our budget, I have not done so at this time. Hopefully, we will see other costs reduced or possibly suitable generic products available. Please visit with your farm supplier on estimated cost in your area. Producers with owned land and or cash rent can use Returns Over Variable as a guide in decision making. Producers with share rent ground should use Returns Over Variable and Land Costs as a guide with their appropriate share rent calculated. A land cost of 25% of revenue minus 25% of crop insurance cost is used in the table as a guide or method of comparison and should not be construed as the appropriate rent for a particular area. Producers who are not making major equipment changes can use UT budgets and this table as a guide in developing their own cropping decision budgets. If equipment changes are being made, then a whole farm financial plan would be better suited as a decision aid.

7 2016 Estimated Returns Cotton Soybeans Corn Milo Wheat/Soybeans Yield 908 lbs. 42 bu. 140 bu. 90 bu. 71 bu./30 bu. Price (as of 6/30/16) $0.72 lb. $11.63 bu. $3.71 bu. $3.25 bu. $4.85 bu./$11.63 bu. Revenue $654 $488 $519 $293 $693 Variable Expenses $397 $250 $341 $228 $397 Returns Over Variable $257 $238 $178 $65 $296 Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25% crop insurance) $162 $120 $126 $72 $169 Returns Over Variable and Land Costs $95 $118 $52 -$7 $127 Fixed Costs Depreciation & interest on machinery $126 $62 $56 $62 $99 Returns Over Specified Costs -$31 $56 -$4 -$69 $28 Breakeven Price at Average Yield and Specified Cost $0.75 $10.29 $3.74 $4.02 $5.13/10.06 Irrigated Profitability Outlook Net returns for soybeans and wheat/soybeans are positive considering variable, fixed, land and irrigation expenses. Corn, milo, and cotton are negative. Cotton returns do not consider any additional government payments such as the Cotton Ginning Cost Share program that was implemented for the 2015 cotton crop. It is unknown at this time whether that will be available for Please note that input costs have been adjusted downward to reflect lower costs of production since the first of the year. As some profitability has returned, producers should continue to look at these returns as what could be if no adjustments are made in their operation and consider it a warning sign that adjustments will need to be made in 2016 to be sustainable. The table below is an estimate of returns for crops under irrigation. Since irrigated yields are not as of yet kept separate in Tennessee, yields below are an estimate of irrigated yields. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and systems. These projections include in variable expenses energy costs for irrigation of $21 per acre and $11 per acre of irrigation repairs and maintenance. Fixed costs of $88 per acre for irrigation equipment are used.

8 Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist Farm Management for assistance in developing your own budget or farm financial plan. This table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Cotton prices include revenue for cottonseed and hauling. A cotton price of 72 cents is being used in the profitability outlook. The price of 72 cents is made up of a cash price of cents and gin rebates (seed & hauling) of 7-8 cents. The cash price of cents is composed of a loan rate of 52 cents or 53 cents with a slight premium and a cent equity from the buyer.. When prices are low, cotton is redeemed out of the marketing loan program at the Adjusted World Price (AWP). This is effect helps create the loan option or equity price that producers receive. Currently, this price is in a cent range. Basically, this is a result of the way the cotton marketing loan program works. My observations and discussions with cotton buyers would indicate that if futures move above cents, then the prices to the producers would start to move up penny for penny. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: Cotton - $109, Soybeans - $38, Corn - $172 (includes 225 units of N), Milo - $114, and Wheat/Soybeans - $101. Cost of production will continue to be adjusted as information becomes available. Depending on varieties, soybean costs could also be reduced but based on our budget, I have not done so at this time. Hopefully, we will see other costs reduced or possibly suitable generic products available. Weed control costs with resistant weeds have also been difficult to estimate. These costs will vary greatly among producers and individual fields. Production costs are estimates based on the 2016 University of Tennessee Crop Budgets with adjustments made where needed. Please visit with your farm supplier on estimated cost in your area. Producers with owned land and or cash rent can use Returns Over Variable and Fixed IR Costs as a guide in decision making. Producers with share rent ground should use Returns Over Variable, Fixed IR Costs and Land Costs as a guide with their appropriate share rent calculated. A land cost of 25% of revenue minus 25% of crop insurance cost minus 25% of the irrigation equipment fixed cost is used in the table as a guide or method of comparison and should not be construed as the appropriate rent for a particular area. A management cost of $30 per acre is included in Fixed Costs management labor, depreciation & interest on machinery. This is an additional $15 above the dryland crop management labor. Producers who are not making major equipment changes can use UT budgets and this table as a guide in developing their own cropping decision budgets. If equipment changes are being made, then a whole farm financial plan would be better suited as a decision aid.

9 2016 Estimated Returns Irrigation Cotton Soybeans Corn Milo Wheat/Soybeans Yield 1100 lbs. 60 bu. 190 bu. 130 bu. 71 bu./45 bu. Price (as of 6/30/16) $0.72 lb. $11.63 bu. $3.71 bu. $3.25 bu. $4.85 bu./$11.63 bu. Revenue $792 $698 $705 $423 $868 Variable Expenses( include energy cost) $455 $282 $421 $288 $429 Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre $88 $88 $88 $88 $88 Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs $250 $328 $196 $47 $351 Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25% crop insurance-25% fixed irrigation costs) Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs Fixed Costs- management labor, depreciation & interest on machinery $174 $150 $151 $83 $191 $75 $178 $45 -$36 $160 $151 $91 $86 $84 $122 Returns Over Specified Costs -$76 $87 -$41 -$120 $38 Breakeven Price at Average Yield and Specified Cost $0.79 $9.96 $3.85 $4.12 $5.13/$10.37