Photovoltaics: the path from niche to mainstream supplier of clean energy

Transcription

1 Photovoltaics: the path from niche to mainstream supplier of clean energy Solar Power 2006 Richard M. Swanson SunPower Corporation A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor 1

2 OUTLINE Wafered Silicon s Past Continual cost reduction Wafered Silicon s Future Continual cost reduction 2

3 Wafered Silicon Process PV Situation in 1975 Polysilicon Wafer Solar Cell Solar Module Systems Ingot $300/kg 3 inches in diameter Sawn one at a time 0.5 watts each $100/watt $200/watt 3

4 1975 View Wafered Silicon Hopelessly Too Expensive Breakthrough Needed Thin Films Concentrators Remote Habitation Solar Farms 4

5 What Actually Happened Wafered Silicon Emerges as the Dominant Technology Breakthrough Needed Thin Films Concentrators DOE Wafered Silicon Program Remote Habitation Solar Farms Residential/ Commercial Grid connected 5

6 Residential Roof Osaka, Japan 5 kw 6

7 Competing Technologies Solar power is uniquely suited for residential electricity supply Primary Batteries Photovoltaics Rechargeable Batteries CC & steam C. Turbines Microturbines, diesel gen-sets, fuel cells trubines Wind E+06 1E+0 Scale (kwh / day) 7 Electricity Value ($/kwh) Off-Grid Rural Power On-Grid Residential

8 Module Price (2002$) 1979 $30/W Rough Rules of Thumb Prices halve every decade Market 1 size increases ten-fold every decade Solar Price Learning Curve Solar Panel Cost Drops by 19% With Each Doubling in Manufacturing Capacity 1979 $32/W 81% Progress Ratio 2002 $3/W Cumulative Production (MW) Silicon Shortage 2002 $3.10/W 8

9 Distribution of Progress Ratios 22 Field Studies (Dutton and Thomas 1984) 14 PV Progress Ratio Frequency Note: These progress ratios are firm level (not industry wide) studies Progress Ratio Taken from Robert Margolis PhD Thesis,

10 Factors Driving Past Cost Reduction Poly silicon price: $300/kg $30/kg Recent shortage driving prices up over $60/kg and constraining growth Wire sawing: now < $0.25/W Larger wafers: 3 6 Volume manufacturing: 1MW 100MW plants Increased automation: none some Improved manufacturing processes 10

11 Question: Will the Cost Reduction Continue? A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor 11

12 Answer: YES 12

13 Now Two New Factors are Emerging: Efficiency as an Important Driver Increased efficiency drives value through the entire value chain Thinner wafers Reduces consumption of expensive silicon A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor 13

14 Historical Silicon PV Efficiency Manufacturers Concentrated on Cost Reduction During this Period 14

15 Cell Efficiency Roadmap Manufacturers are Delivering on Higher Efficiency Cells 25 SunPower SunPower SunPower Goal Conversion Effiicency (%) Source: 2002 NREL Silicon Roadmap 15

16 New High Efficiency Concepts SunPower All-Back-Contact Solar Cell; 22.2% Efficiency Textured front surface 240 μ thick monocrystalline silicon wafer N P + Production Cell By locating all of the electrical contacts on the back surface, SunPower is able to achieve conversion efficiencies up to 50% higher than conventional solar cells. 16

17 New High Efficiency Concepts Sanyo HIT Cell; 21.8% Production Cell 17

18 New High Efficiency Concepts SunTech--Semiconductor Grids Pilot Production 18

19 New High Efficiency Concepts ISFH (Germany) RISE; 22% Laboratory Cell 19

20 New High Efficiency Concepts UNSW n-type PERL Cell; 22.7% Laboratory Cell 20

21 Wafer Thickness Roadmap Source: 2002 NREL Silicon Roadmap Wafer Thickness (um)

22 Wafer Thickness Roadmap Manufacturers are Accelerating the Introduction of Thinner Wafers Wafer Thickness (um) Present Actual

23 Factors Driving Future Cost Reduction Thinner wafers Higher efficiency Improvements in crystal growth technology Improvements in slicing technology Improvements in cell processing technology New lower cost silicon refining technologies Increased manufacturing scale: 200 MW 500 MW plant size 23

24 Retail Parity in 7 to 10 years Module Price ($/W) ($2002) Incremental Improvements in Silicon Technology will Continue to Drive Solar Panel Price Reduction 1980 $21.83/W 1990 $6.07/W Silicon 2002 Roadmap Retail Roadmap Parity Cost Roadmap Cost ,000 10, ,000 Cumulative Production (MW) 2000 $3.89/W Historical Projected 2010 $1.82/W 2013 $1.44/W 24