Hotel Industry Overview Deep Dive into Extended Stay

Transcription

1 Hotel Industry Overview Deep Dive into Extended Stay Vail R. Brown SVP, Global Business Development & 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

2 Agenda Hotel Overview Extended Stay Overview 2016 / 2017 Forecast Takeaways

3 Industry Review U.S. Hotels

4 2015 Was A Record Setting Year (Again) Most Rooms Sold EVER Most Rooms Revenue EVER Highest Occupancy EVER

5 February YTD 2016 RevPAR +2.6% Occupancy -0.6% Tough Comps Feb YTD 2015 RevPAR +8.2%

6 Total U.S. RevPAR: NYC & Houston Big Headwind... Total US : +2.6% NYC: -4.5% Houston: -8.8% Total U.S. excluding NYC & Houston: +3.1% RevPAR % Change February YTD 2016

7 February 2016: ADR Growth Rates continue % Change Room Supply 1.2% Room Demand 2.4% Occupancy 65.4% 1.1% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $79 5.4% Room Revenue $143 Billion 6.7% Total U.S. Key Performance Indicators 12 month moving average, February 2016

8 Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven ADR % Change Occupancy % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Total U.S. RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change By Scale, 12 MMA February 2016

9 Scales: Upper End Hotels Are Very Busy Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Total U.S. OCC % by Scale, 12 Month Moving Average February 2016

10 Industry Review U.S. Extended Stay

11 Top U.S. Extended Stay Brands RESIDENCE INN 81.5 ESA 68.9 HOMEWOOD SUITES 41.7 CANDLEWOOD TOWNEPLACE Total Extended Stay Supply 390k Rooms 8% Total U.S. Supply By Room Count, February 2016

12 U.S. Extended Stay Hotels: Decelerating Occ / ADR Growth Rates % Change Occupancy 68.8% -2.1% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $1.5 Billion 8.4% U.S. Extended Stay hotels, Key Performance Indicators YTD February 2016

13 Demand Growth Slows. Supply Growth Increases. 18 Supply % Change Demand % Change % 2 3.9% U.S. Extended Stay hotels, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /2016

14 ADR Growth Steady. Occ Growth Decelerating Rapidly % 0-1.1% -6 Occ % Change ADR % Change U.S. Extended Stay hotels: ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /2016

15 2014 Peak OCC year for Extended Stay hotels in U.S. OCC YTD 2016 U.S. Extended Stay hotels: Actual Occupancy (OCC) Annual and YTD February 2016

16 Room Premiums well above 2008 Levels ADR YTD 2016 U.S. Extended Stay hotels: Average Daily Rate (ADR) Annual and YTD February 2016

17 Development Pipeline

18 Extended Stay Share U/C Rooms: 33% Upscale and 22% Upper Midscale % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated Total U.S. Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction, 000s Rooms, by Scale February 2016

19 Extended Stay - U/C Rooms k k +14% Extended Stay under construction rooms, February 2015, 2016

20 Construction In Top 26 Markets: 24 With 2%+ Of Supply Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 300 1% St Louis, MO-IL 407 1% Atlanta, GA 1,457 2% Oahu Island, HI 482 2% Orlando, FL 2,134 2% San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 951 2% New Orleans, LA 756 2% Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 991 2% Phoenix, AZ 1,448 2% Las Vegas, NV 3,905 2% San Diego, CA 1,654 3% Detroit, MI 1,154 3% Chicago, IL 3,300 3% Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,342 3% Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 1,753 3% Boston, MA 1,984 4% Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 4,480 5% Dallas, TX 4,237 5% Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2,443 5% Nashville, TN 2,062 5% Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 2,294 6% Seattle, WA 2,647 6% Denver, CO 2,836 7% Houston, TX 5,586 7% Miami/Hialeah, FL 3,874 7% New York, NY 15,783 14% U.S. Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, February 2016

21 Top 5 Markets 18% Extended Stay U/C Room HOUSTON 1,194 PHILADELPHIA 1,151 DALLAS 1,037 ANAHEIM 1,026 DC ,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 Top U.S. Extended Stay Construction Markets By Room Count February 2016

22 Homewood & Home2 Suites 40% of Extended Stay U/C Rooms HOME2 SUITES 7.1 RESIDENCE INN 6.6 HOMEWOOD SUITES 5.0 TOWNEPLACE 4.1 STAYBRIDGE Top U.S. Extended Stay Brands Room Construction - Thousands February 2016

23 2015 / 2016 Forecast

24 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast Supply 1.7% 1.9% Demand 2.3% 2.1% Occupancy 0.6% 0.2% ADR 4.4% 4.3% RevPAR 5.0% 4.5%

25 U.S. Extended Stay Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast Occupancy -0.6% -0.8% ADR 4.9% 4.5% RevPAR 4.5% 4.1%

26 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2016F by Chain Scale 2016 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury 0.4% 4.5% 4.9% Upper Upscale 0.5% 4.6% 5.2% Upscale -0.2% 4.5% 4.3% Upper Midscale 0.4% 4.1% 4.5% Midscale 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% Economy 0.9% 3.7% 4.6% Independent 0.6% 4.4% 5.1% Total United States 0.6% 4.4% 5.0%

27 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2017F by Chain Scale 2017 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury 0.1% 4.7% 4.8% Upper Upscale 0.1% 4.6% 4.7% Upscale -0.6% 3.8% 3.2% Upper Midscale -0.1% 3.7% 3.6% Midscale 0.6% 4.1% 4.7% Economy 0.4% 3.4% 3.9% Independent 0.3% 4.4% 4.7% Total United States 0.2% 4.3% 4.5%

28 Takeaways U.S. Demand Growth Slowing Extended Stay: Demand Growth Solid Supply Growth Strong ADR Growth Consistent Non-Traditional Competitive Threats

29 Thank you!