What s the Main Difference between. Keynes and the Classical School?
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1 What s the Main Difference between Keynes and the Classical School? De-Xing Guan September 2008,?,,,,,,,,,,!,, 1,,,,,,,,, : :,,, (The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, ) 12,, 12 : (The State of Long-Term Expectation) 1 (classical economists) (Karl Marx), (classical school), : The classical economists was a name invented by Marx to cover Ricardo and James Mill and their predecessors, I have become accustomed,, to include in the classical school the followers of Ricardo, those, that is to say, who adopted and perfected the theory of the Ricardian economics, including (for example) J. S. Mill, Marshall, Edgeworth, and Prof. Pigou. (p. 3),, Milton Friedman Robert Lucas ( (new classical school)) 1
2 , IS-LM John Hicks,, 12 Hicks,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Hicks!, 1960 (monetarists) (Keynesian school) Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer, James Tobin, Franco Modigliani, Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow, 2,, 1930,, :,,,,, ? (Great Depression), (1930),, ,,,, 3,,,,,,,,,,,, 2
3 (A Treatise on Money),,, 4, (Friedrich A. von Hayek) 1931 (LSE) : Prices and Production (Austrian school), LSE, LSE ( ),,,, (loanable funds) (liquidity preference),,,, Irving Fisher (Theory of Interest) , 1968, Friedman Edmund Phelps (Phillips curve), 1972, Robert Lucas (rational expectations school), ( 12 ) 12 Book IV (11-18 ),, 12, 15, 17, 12 ( Hicks,,, (19 ),, (fundamental psychological law), (1) (0<MPC<1, p. 96), (2) (animal spirits, p. 161), ,, 5 (Fisher equation),, ,, Fisher,, Ronald Coase (, Adam Smith) John Muth 1961, Lucas, 1935, Ronald Coase Ronald Fowler, Coase/Fowler, Muth, Lucas 3
4 (3), (liquidity trap) (p. 207 (1) IS-LM? IS, LM,, IS-LM, Fisher equation, 0,,, IS-LM!, 0, IS-LM! (2),,,, MPC,, IS-LM, 8 ( MPC),, 12,,,, Coase/Fowler,,?, Friedman Lucas ( ),,?,,,, ( ) ( ), Alfred Marshall , 1930,,, Bose-Einstein condensation,!,,,, David Ricardo,, (law of diminishing returns) (comparative advantage), (opportunity cost), Friedrich von Wieser,,,, Coase,, Henri Poincare,,, 8 Lucas 1976, Lucas critique, Friedman-Schwartz: A Monetary History of the United States: , 4
5 ?,, Marshall (fellow of King s College,, ),, (A Treatise on Probability IS-LM,,,! (subjective probability),,,,, : our existing knowledge does not provide a sufficient basis for a calculated mathematical expectation. (p. 152), 10, Bayes,, (beauty contest),,,,, (behavioral economics) (herd behavior) 11 Bayes,,,,, 12 ( ),,,, 9, ( ) Marshall, Marshall,, Marshall Principles of Economics,, IS-LM Hicks, ; (p. 180),, Roy Harrod 10 Frank Knight (Friedman ) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit 11 : each competitor has to pick, not those faces which himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. (p. 156) 5
6 ,,?,!,,,,,,,, ( ), (helping hand), (invisible hand),,, (, ),,, (grabbing hand), 12,,,,,,?,,, :, ( ) ( ),!,!,!,,,,,,,,,,,,,! 12 Andrei Shleifer Robert Vishny The Grabbing Hand,, Shleifer (1999 Clark medalist, ) ( ),,,,,,,,! 6
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