Japan s trading losses reach JPY20 trillion

Transcription

1 IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. Japan s tading losses each JPY20 tillion Enegy accounts fo moe than half of the tading losses YANAGISAWA Akia Senio Economist Enegy Demand, Supply and Foecast Goup Enegy Data and Modelling Cente Summay Pime Ministe Shinzo Abe set goss national income (GNI) pe capita as the most impotant key pefomance indicato fo the New Gowth Stategy. The taget is to incease the GNI pe capita by no less than JPY1. million within the next 10 yeas. GNI is sum of goss domestic income (GDI) o GDP and net income fom the est of the wold. Nominal GDI and nominal GDP show the same values by definition. GDI and GDP, howeve, ae not identical in eal tem because eal income (puchasing powe) deceases by outflow of income to othe counties if expot pices fall and/o impot pices ise. It is tading gains o tading losses that expess inceases o deceases in eal income by changes in expot and impot pices. Japan ecoded tading losses of JPY21 tillion ($212 billion) in Recently, the tems of tade, o TOT, wosened heavily due to a ise of impot pices of mateials and fuels, and a fall in expot pices affected by had intenational competition. This esulted in the huge tading losses fo Japan. Abenomics have evised the excess appeciation of the yen. Expectations of boad penetation of inceases in expots ae geat. With the wosened TOT that Japan is facing today, any inceases in eal expots futhe expand the tading losses. Real income does not incease as much as poduction does. Expanding TOT wosens the tading losses. Low TOT patially offset the effect of inceasing expots. Theefoe, impoving TOT by eithe ising expot pices o depessing impot pices is longed. Skyocketing enegy pices contibute much to the ise of the impot deflato. Futhemoe, the substantial inceases in enegy impot quantity that followed the Geat East Japan Eathquake in 2011 destabilised the tade balance. Enegy commodities contibute significantly to the expansion of tading losses. Enegy accounted fo aound 60% of the tading losses of JPY21 tillion in The base yea of the Japanese national accounts is 200; in that yea enegy pices wee much lowe than today. At fist glance, the damage to the economy caused by inceases in enegy impots may appea small, howeve, the advese effect by highe enegy impot pices and quantity is neithe tiny no negligible. Japanese must caefully econside the cuent situation of enegy consumption, especially the heavy dependence on high cost fossil fuel-fied powe geneation. That educed the eal puchasing powe by JPY12 tillion (fom the poduced value added), and fo which Japan paid JPY14 tillion using the emaining eal disposable income. Keywods: GDP, GDI, GNI, tading gains, tading losses and tems of tade 1

2 JPY tillion IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. GNI is the most impotant indicato in the New Gowth Stategy Pime Ministe Shinzo Abe set key pefomance indicatos, o KPIs, fo the New Gowth Stategy. The tagets to be achieved ae (1) ecoveing non-esidential investments to JPY70 tillion within thee yeas, (2) inceasing expots of infastuctues to JPY30 tillion by 2020, (3) doubling the balance of foeign diect investments into Japan o inceasing it to JPY3 tillion by 2020, (4) inceasing expots of agicultual, foest and fishey poducts, and food to JPY1 tillion, and () placing 10 univesities on the list of the wold top 100 univesities within 10 yeas ( Speech on the New Gowth Stategy, July 2013). Futhemoe, the stategy states that goss national income (GNI) pe capita is the most impotant KPI. The taget is to incease the GNI pe capita by no less than JPY1. million within 10 yeas. Goss domestic poduct, o GDP, is the most popula indicato fo measuing the size and stength of the economy o fo obseving economic tend. What is GNI then? GNI coesponds conceptually to goss national poduct (GNP), which used to be the majo indicato. GNI is sum of GDP, o goss domestic income (GDI) and net income fom the est of the wold by definition. Nominal GNI Nominal GDI Net income fom the est of the wold[nominal] Nominal GDP Net income fom the est of the wold[nominal]. Hence, GNI includes income fom domestic economic activity and etuns fom foeign investments, etc. Japan s GNI of JPY496 tillion ($.08 tillion at JPY97.6/$) in 2013 consists of JPY478 tillion of GDP, which accounts fo 96% of GNI, and JPY18 tillion of net income fom the est of the wold (Figue 1). Figue 1: Nominal goss domestic poduct (GDP) and nominal goss national income (GNI) Nominal GDP = Nominal GDI Nominal GNI Note: Data fo 2014 ae estimation of FY2014 based on the govenment s outlook, on which cabinet decision was made in Januay Souce: Economic and Social Reseach Institute, Cabinet Office, Govenment of Japan 2

3 JPY200 tillion IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. Setting GNI not GDP as the most impotant indicato in the New Gowth Stategy indicates that the Pime Ministe pioitises an incease in income athe than expansion of poduction, as if we cae less about the diffeence between domestic and national. Changes in expot and impot pices must be taken into account in eal tem We discussed goss poduction and goss income in nominal tem in the pevious chapte. It, howeve, is hamful to think only in nominal tem as the Japanese govenment and the Bank of Japan have a 2%-inflation taget. Fo instance, it is meaningless that we have 1% gowth in nominal tem and -1% gowth in eal tem. Hee, we must pay attention that the elationship between GNI and GDP in eal tem is diffeent fom that in nominal tem. The elationship in eal tem is as follows: Real GNI Real GDI Net income fom the est of the wold[eal] Real GDP Net income fom the est of the wold[eal]. The elationship between GNI and GDI is unchanged egadless of eal tem o nominal tem. Diffeence exists in elationship between GDI and GDP. Then we focus on eal GDI and eal GDP heeafte. GDI and GDP ae not identical in eal tem because eal income (puchasing powe) is also influenced by changes in expot and impot pices. Real puchasing powe deceases by outflow of income to othe counties if expot pices fall and/o impot pices ise. Japan s eal GDI was JPY0 tillion in 2013 (in 200 pices) whilst its eal GDP was JPY2 tillion (Figue 2). Figue 2: Real goss domestic poduct (GDP) and eal goss domestic income (GDI) Real GDP Real GDI Note: Data fo 2014 ae estimation of FY2014 based on the govenment s outlook, on which cabinet decision was made in Januay Souce: Economic and Social Reseach Institute, Cabinet Office, Govenment of Japan 3

4 Tading losses (JPY200 tillion) Ratio of tading losses to eal GDP IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. Expansion of tading losses bought by wosening tems of tade It is tading gains o tading losses that expess inceases o deceases in eal income by changes in expot and impot pices fom a base yea. Then eal GDI consists of eal GDP and tading gains. Real GDI Real GDP Tading gains. Japan ecoded tading losses of JPY21 tillion in 2013 (Figue 3). This means eal income educed by JPY21 tillion fom 200, the base yea. Real GDP inceased by JPY22 tillion to JPY2 tillion in 2013 fom JPY04 tillion in 200. Nevetheless, eal GDI inceased by less than JPY1 tillion to JPY0 tillion fom JPY04 tillion due to the huge amount of tading losses. This tiny inceases in eal income (puchasing powe) may be one eason the nationals hadly ealise economic gowth in addition to decline in nominal wage. Figue 3: Tading losses and thei atio to eal GDP 2 % 20 4% % 2% Tading losses Ratio to eal GDP 1% % Note: Data fo 2014 ae estimation of FY2014 based on the govenment s outlook, on which cabinet decision was made in Januay Tading losses fo the base yea 200 ae zeo by definition. Souce: Economic and Social Reseach Institute, Cabinet Office, Govenment of Japan Tading gains T is defined as follows: Nominal expots X Nominal impots M Tading gains T Numeal deflato P Real expots X Real impots M. National accounts of Japan adopt deflato of total tade weighted aveage of expot deflato X p and impot deflato M p as numeal deflato P 1. X M 1 P X p M p. X M X M X M X M 4

5 200=1.0 IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. The tems of tade, o TOT, ecently wosened heavily being substantially below one because of a ise of impot pices fo mateials and fuels, and a fall of expot pices affected by had intenational competition (Figue 4) 2. This esulted in huge tading losses 3. Figue 4: Tems of tade and expot and impot deflato Impot deflato Expot deflato Tems of tade Note: Data fo 2014 ae estimation of FY2014 based on the govenment s outlook, on which cabinet decision was made in Januay Souce: Economic and Social Reseach Institute, Cabinet Office, Govenment of Japan (expot and impot deflato) Longed impovement of tems of tade Abenomics including the unusual monetay easing by the Bank of Japan, have evised the excess appeciation of the yen. Expected inceases in expot quantity, howeve, have not yet mateialised. Whilst some ague that Japan is influenced by the extended effect of the J-cuve, othes ae pointing to the effect of offshoing of manufactuing bases duing a peiod of excessive yen appeciation. Nevetheless, expectations of boad inceases in expots ae geat. Expansion of eal expots expot quantity inceases diectly eal GDP. Futhemoe, it inceases eal GDP by stimulating domestic economic activity though the multiplie effect. We, howeve, should emembe that the effect is on eal GDI as income, and not on eal GDP as poduction. Expot deflato X 2 p Tems oftade t. Impot deflato M p 3 Tading gains T can be shown by using TOT t, eal expots X and eal impots M as follows: X M T 2 t 1. tx M Sign of T being tading gains o tading losses depends on whethe t is lage o smalle than one because all of t, X and M ae non-negative. T is a monotonically inceasing function fo t.

6 JPY200 tillion IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. Incease in eal expots expands athe tading losses unde situation with wosened TOT as Japan is 4. Clealy, eal GDI does gow as inceases in eal GDP ae lage than inceases in tading losses. Income, howeve, does not incease as much as poduction does. We show a numeical example based on the latest data in 2013 and as of 2003, 10 yeas ealie. Figue shows the effects on eal GDP and eal GDI if only eal expots incease by JPY tillion without changes in TOT. In 2003, when TOT was 1.13 (exceeding one), eal income would have inceased by JPY.3 tillion as tading gains would incease by JPY300 billion on the top of the incease in eal expots by JPY tillion. Fo 2013, contastingly, inceases in eal income would be only JPY4.3 tillion due to inceases in tading losses by JPY700 billion. The diffeence in eal income is JPY900 billion, o 18% of the oiginal inceases in eal expots. Figue : Effect by inceases in eal expots by JPY tillion (2013 and 2003) Real GDI Tading gains Real GDP Real GDP + Tading gains = Real GDI Real GDP + Tading gains = Real GDI 2013 (tems of tade = 0.77) 2003 (tems of tade = 1.13) Note: No change is assumed in domestic demand, impots and all of deflatos fo simplification. The benefits ae patially offset if expots incease without impovement of TOT ove one. 4 Conside changes in tading gains T if only eal expots X incease without changes in TOT t. Patial diffeential equation of T by X is as follows: T M tx 2 t 1 1. X tx M tx M Sign of T X is same as that of t 1 because all of t, X and eal impots letting both M tx M and tx tx M t significantly less than one. Then incease in 1 non-negative. Today, X esults in decease in T. 6 M ae non-negative T X is negative as t is

7 200=1.0 IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. Enegy is the pimay contibuto to the huge tading losses Wosening TOT expands tading losses and low TOT patially offsets the effect due to inceases in expots. Theefoe, impoving TOT by aising expot pices and/o depessing impot pices is longed. Why has Japan s TOT wosened so much then? Sevee intenational competition makes it difficult fo Japan to aise its expot pices and this esulted in a shap dop of the expot deflato. Raising expot pices in the dolla was not achieved and expot pices in the yen plunged when the yen appeciated apidly afte the financial cisis in the second half in 2008 (Figue 6). Figue 6: Expot pice indices Metals & elated poducts Chemicals & elated poducts Tanspotation equipment Geneal pupose, poduction & business oiented machiney All commodities Exchange ates (JPY/USD) Electic & electonic poducts Souce: Compiled fom Bank of Japan Copoate goods pice index, etc. Skyocketing enegy pices contibute much to the ise in the impot deflato (Figue 7). Futhemoe, substantial inceases in enegy impot quantity, despite the high pices, afte the Geat East Japan Eathquake in 2011 also had an effect. Enegy impots expanded to JPY27.4 tillion, accounting fo moe than one thid of total impots of JPY81.3 tillion in Depeciation of the yen aises the impot deflato and contibutes to wosen TOT if pices in the dolla ae unchanged. On the othe hand, it aises also the expot deflato and that contibutes to impove TOT. Theefoe, depeciation of the yen is neutal fo TOT by definition. It, howeve, may affect TOT because (1) whilst shae of tade in the yen was 21% fo impot in 2H2013, the shae was 36% fo expot, (2) expot pices in the dolla may be adjusted coesponding to changes in exchange ates. 6 Ministy of Finance Tade Statistics of Japan 7

8 JPY200 tillion 200=1.0 IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved Figue 7: Enegy impot CIF pices and impot deflato LNG Cude oil Coal Impot deflato Note: Data fo 2014 ae estimation of FY2014 based on the govenment s outlook, on which cabinet decision was made in Januay Souce: The Institute of Enegy Economics, Japan (enegy); Economic and Social Reseach Institute, Cabinet Office, Govenment of Japan (impot deflato) Consequently, enegy contibutes significantly to the expansion of the tading losses by inceasing both the impot pices and quantity (Figue 8). Whilst tading losses in 2013 wee JPY20.7 tillion, contibution by oil and liquefied natual gas (LNG) wee JPY7.0 tillion and JPY4.3 tillion, espectively. Enegy accounted fo 8% of the tading losses in total. Figue 8: Contibution to tading losses by enegy Expots Othe impots Oil impots LNG impots Coal impots Tading losses Note: Estimated by applying Taylo expansion up to the second ode to the identity equation of tading losses. 8

9 IEEJ: Mach All Rights Reseved. Reconsideation on the cuent situation of enegy consumption is necessay The base yea of the Japanese national accounts is 200; in that yea enegy pices wee much lowe than today 7. This may be misleading at fist glance, as the damage to the economy caused by inceases in enegy impots may appea small elative to GDP; unfotunately, the damage is neithe tiny no negligible. The meaning can be clealy undestood if we look at eal GDI. Japanese must caefully econside the cuent situation of enegy consumption, especially the heavy dependence on high cost fossil fuel-fied powe geneation. That educed the eal puchasing powe by JPY12 tillion 8 (fom the poduced value added), and fo which Japan paid JPY14 tillion 9 using the emaining eal disposable income. The most impotant taget of the New Gowth Stategy is to incease the GNI pe capita by no less than JPY1. million within 10 yeas. This may equie nominal GDP gowth of aound 2.% pe annum in next 10 yeas with inceases in net income fom the est of the wold. This path seems feasible if the govenment s 2%-inflation taget is successfully achieved. Howeve, having healthy gowth of eal GNI is much hade due to the tading losses than in nominal tem though the Stategy states nothing in eal tem. We should examine cautiously the economic situation not to delude ouselves by ostensible gowth unde the inflation taget. Contact: epot@tky.ieej.o.jp 7 Impot CIF pices in 200 of cude oil, LNG and coal wee JPY3,460/kL, JPY34,222/t and JPY8,367/t, espectively. They wee much highe in 2013; cude oil fo JPY67,266/kL, LNG fo JPY80,67/t and coal fo JPY12,003/t. 8 Compaed with In 200 pices 9