FORWARD LINKAGES WITH AN APPLICATION T0 THE DUTCH AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. R. Hart hoorn*)

Transcription

1 C ENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS The Nether Lds Deprtmet of Ntio L Accouts BACKWARD AND FORWARD LINKAGES WITH AN APPLICATION T0 THE DUTCH AGROINDUSTRIAL COMPLEX R. Hrt hoor*) *) The uthor is idebted to Flrs. G.A.A. Wossik, who couthored pper 'i Dutch (De betekeis v de Nederldse orrische produkt ie voor de hdetsbls e de werkgelegeheid), cotiig prt of the mteril of this pper, d to C.A. v Bochove d W. v Sorge for their commets o the text of this pper. i Nr. NAO1 1 The views expressed i this pper re those of the uthor(s1 d do ot ecessri Ly ref Lect the views of the Netherlds CetrL Bureu of Sttistics

2 BACKWARD AND FORXARD'LINKAGES WITH AN APPLLCAïIOIi T0 TEE DUTCH AGROINDUSTRIAL COMPLEX Summ ry Ssme idustries iduce productio i other idustries. Besides the fmilir bckwrd likges, i some cses iductio through forwrd likges my be ssumed. However, stright forurd combitio of both likges wi l1 led to some icorrect resu Lts becuse prt of product io ui l t be tui ce ccouted for. By itroducig the cocept of "selectio vectors" elegt method is developed for combiig the likges while t the Sme time voidig this pitfll. I dditio, by itroducig pseudoidustries the effects of the, cosumptio of cpit1 goods c be ctculted coveietly. These methods hve bee pplied to determie the ifluece of Dutch gricutture o the Dutch ecoomy. It ws ssumed tht prt of the food processig idustry s wel1 s prt of the export of services bi j wholesle trde c be regrded s forurd effects of griculture. For 1981 the ifluece is mesured i terms of vtue dded d Lbour force.

3 1. It roduct io Iputoutput Lysis is of teil used to study the Likges betuee output Leve Ls of differet idustries. It ssumes Lier reltio betuee the output of idustry d its purchses from other idustries. ClerLy, uder this ssumptio chges i idust ry's output re directly trstted ito chges i its supptiers' output. This is clled bckwrd Likge. Uut the likge my tso be the other uy roud: output of idustry ry ifluece the idustries of uhich it is the mi supptier. This is referred to s forwrd Likge. The iputoutput L i terture cocetrtes o bckurd Likges d pys litt Le îtetio to the forurd oes. This is. ustisfctory situtio, becuse forwrd likges my be of cosiderbte importce too, forwrd Likge is quite s direct. Thus, idustry vries directly uith the size of the sugrbeet the Likge is ot quite s direct s tht, I some cses the the output of the Dutch sugr hrvest. Dut eve whe the existece of supptyig idustry ry be ecessry coditio for the existece for other idustry becuse of the extert ecoomics required tó chieve profitbi Lity for the Ltter. Yhis is true wheever trsport costs re high rettive to the vtue of îhe commodity cocered. For this.reso, the existece of sizebte food processig idustry is utikety i the bsece of highty devetoped gri CU Lture: imports of uprocessed gricu Lturt products re o vib te ttertive source of suppty becuse of the rettivety high costs of trsport. This is bore out by the fct tht the vtue of globt itertiol trde i uprocessed products does ot exceed oe teth of the vlue of world gri cutturt product io. For this reso, the existece of forwrd Likge betwee griculture d foodprocessig idustries is udeibte: oe my cosider the two to form dist ict groidustril complex. I The NetherLds this complex is of cosiderb te importce: t hough beig oe of the most desi Ly popu Lted coutries i the world, its blce of trde i yricutturt products displys huge surplus. This is mde possibte by the highest gricutturt Lbour productivity i the uortd. Cosequet Ly, it is importt to Lyse the bckwrd d forurd Likges of Dutch griculture: the ctut cotributio of Dutch griculture to tiot product d blce of trde is eve greter ths is.evidet from ispectio of just the dt o griculture, becuse of the tikges. However, our pproch

4 hs wider pptichi lity: wheever it is resoble to ssume the existece of both bckwrd d forurd Likges betuee groups of idustries, the method preseted i this pper c be employed to lyse them. ALLowig for forwrd Likyes is skig for troubte. We c tke it for grted tht prt of the effects of the forurd likges ui L1 direct Ly or idirect Ly Lso be itegrl prt of the effects of the bckwrd Likges of the idustry we hve slgled out for our study. (From ou o we uit1 refer to this idustry s the core idustry.) So uhe we dd the effects of both bckurd d forwrd Likges the possibi Lity exists tht some effects cou Ld be tui ce ccouted for. The situtio becomes eve more complicted whe we recogize tht the effects of forwrd Likges i their tur ui L L iduce effects of bckwrd Likges.!Jou these effects ui LL ic Lude the direct cosumptio of the corè idustries but, ext to it, there Lso hppes to be idirect cosumptio of goods d services origitig from tht sre core idustry. Here the foremetioed probtem pops up gi. I this pper ue hve devetoped simpte d Lucid method to void this probter. I sectios 2 d 3 we itroduce ttie cocept of selectio vectors; this leds to rther rdicl simplifictio of the ortioc. I sectio 4 bi rdseye view is give of geerzlizt io of the c Lcu Lt ios. "Cosumpt io" of fixed cpitt is beig pyed ttetio to i sectio 5. By elrgig the iputoutput tbìes with umber of rous d colums we itroduce socl Led "pseudoidustries", represetig the iput d output "structure" of severl ctegories of cpitt yoods. They mke it possible to estimte i esy wy the effects retted to the cosumptio of cpit1 goods.from sectio 6 o, the pptictio to the Dutch groidustril complex is discussed. Ue tke close Look t its if Luece o the processig idustries, the trde blce d employmet.i sect io 9 the resutts re suimed up. 2. Hottio Throuyhout the text cpitt Letters A, I, L,... deote mtrices, smlt letters t, u, v,... deote colum vectors. (There is oe exceptio: the cpitt Letter S represets set. see betou.) The ht () is used o sml1 Letters to idicte the digol mtrix which c be formed by mes of the vector. The idetity mtrix is represeted by I; the summtio vector i is vector uith LL elemets equl to 1. Mtrices d vectors of techict coefficiets hve the tilde sig (1 dded, e.g. À d t. Throughout the text the mtrices ui L L be ssumed to hve the pproprite dimesios. A glossry d

5 3 List of symbols d rbeltios is to be foud t the ed of this pper. We ou itroduce tlie cocept of selectio vectors d rest vectors. Their elemets c oly tke the vlues O or 1. These vectors uill behve s kid of "switch", uhich wil1 Let through or block certi "commodity flous". The elemets of the selectio vectors re defied s s,(j) = 1 for j s Sm e S,,m,O, uhere Sm is the subset m of idustries i the iputoutput tble. Which idustries re elemets of uhich subset depeds o the specific choice of the core idustry d its mtchig forwrd Likges. The subsets re disjuct. The rest vectors re the compleet of the sum of those selectio vectors of which the subscripts re equl to or Lower th m: To lt prctises d purposes the rest vectors behve s selectio vectors. To visulize the compositio of the subsets S, :e my cosider the exmple tht uil be etborted i sectio 6. Ue strt uith the rkig umber of the selected idustries, here restricted to griculture oly. So the subset S. cotis oly oe elemet: griculture. The subset S, hs s its elemets the idustries which form the first forurd Likge: the slughterig d metprocessig idust ry, the di ry idust ry, the f ish, vegetb les d f rui t processig idustry (restricted to its cosumptio of domestic griculture products) d the sugridustry; the subset S, hs s its etemets the wholesle d retii idustry (gi restricted to products uhich origited from the idustries i S. d S,). 3. The tethod The productio, eeded for the delivery of oe ui t of output of idustry c be represeted by the wet Lkow Leotief iverse. The frctio of the output of the core idustry c esi Ly be selected It goes without syig tht this output iduces effects uhich re due to

6 bckwrd Likges. The di rect cosumptio of products stemiig fro~ other idustries c be expressed by Houever, we tso hve to tke ito ccout the idirect cosumptio of the core idustry. The presece of the Leotief iverse i (2) idictes tht t1 iput flous, direct d idirect, which ru through the idustry, hve lredy bee tke ito ccout. This hs lso Led to the possibitity tht flou uit1 be twice ccouted for. It is esy to void this trp: from the mtrix of techict coefficiets we oty eed to erse t1 idustries which re elemets of So. This c be chieved by pptyig the rest vectors Usig the thus djusted Leotief iverse the di rect d idi rect iput f Lows re ou correctty expressed hy The ext step is to clcutte the prt of the cumutted cosumptio of other idustries which c be ttributed to the cumulted cosumptio (1) of the core idustry. This c be chieved by muttiptyig (2) d (4) Formut (5) represets the effects be togig to the bckurd Likges. We ou itrodtice the mtrix Uoto represet the output of, lt idustries, is eeded by the core idustry for its productio of goods d services for fit cosumptio. U. is obtied by ddig (1) d (5) d muttiptyig the resutt by the fit cosumptio mtrix Y Suppose tht certi idustries cosume goods d services produced b~ the core idustry d of uhich it c sfely be ssumed tht they deped comptetety o the existece of the core idustry. Ue coutd cosider these idustries s the first forwrd Likge of the core idustry. Becuse of the iterdepedece betwee lt idustries tht prt of the effects of the forwrd Likge is tso

7 icluded i the cumulted iputs of the core idustry. (AS such these cumulted iputs re clculted ccordig to stdrd procedures.) This prt is t oce effect of forurd Likge d of bckurd Likge. Now, if ue ut to estblish the irportce of the core idustry we hve to get rid of t.hi prt. This comes dow to the etimitio of LL direct d idirect iputs of the core idustry before we re to clculte the cumulted techic[ coef f ici ets, i.e. ue hve to bse the clcliltios o the djusted Leotief iverse (4). UtiLizig the selectio vector sl ue esily obti the "proper" effects belogig to the first forurd Likge Expressios (7) d (1) hve similr iterprettios. T+e effects of the bckurd Likges iduced by the effects of the first forurd likge c be clculted i the sme uy. The coefficiets of the direct iputs uhich origite from other idustries (excludig the idustries i S. d S!) 1 d uhich re prt of (7) c be expressed by (cf.(2)) Likeuise, uhe ue ut to clculte the idirect iput flous we hve to exclude LL idustries of both subsets: so i order to clcutte the cumulted cosumptio the clcultios hve to be hsed o the mtrix Quite similr to the wy ue clculted (4) d (5) we re ou ble to compute the cumulted iputs which origi?ited from the remiig idustries. tlere it ivolves the iputs uhich go uith expressio (8) The direct d idirect output U, should be cosidered s exclusively effect of the first forurd Likge, icludig the effects of the ssocited bckurd Likge The resoig pplied to the clcultios of (7) to (11) c be repeted for secod d higher order forwrd Likges. For the effects of the th forurd

8 Likge we fid II l l l l (1 2) I sectio 3 our strtig poit ws group of idustries, uhich ue hd sigted out for our study. Ue especitly uted to look ito the possibi Lity to qutify the effects of the first d higher order bckurd d forwrd Likges. It is possible to geertize this cocept by orderig LL idustries ccordig to previously defied hierrchy. Let US ssume tht ecoomy c be represeted by Lmited sphere, uhich c be peeted off Lyer by Lyer. Ech Lyer cot~is umber of idustries. For every Lyer ue c determie its output plus the output by other idustries. Of course the output, imputed to Lyers lredy peeted off i ertier stge should be disregrded. ExlpLe of lyers could be divisio i gri culture, idustry, services d govermet. Suppose we hve series of Lyers, umbered O to. This implies of course tht The tott output of tht ecoomy could be represeted by uhere r = i 1 l The totl vtue dded c the be give by

9 5. Cpitl goods Uti L ow we hve voided the probtem of the iput of cpitt goods. 8ut i tmost every idustry cpitl goods re used. They Lst oly certi mout of time d fter this period they hve to be replced i order to miti the level of productio. This is usully referred to s "cosumptio of fixed cpitl" d, if vlued t curret pries, c be cosidered s stdrd for rep lcemet ivestmets. Sice we wt to tke the cosumptio of cpitt goods ito ccout we hve to cosider three kids of cumutted effects to ebte US to ctcutte this cumu L ted cosumpt io: 1. the use of cpitt goods durig the cosumptio of commodities which hve bee cosumed directly or idirectty i behtf of the core idustry; 2. the use of cpitt goods durig the productio of cpitt goods; 3. the cumutted use of commodities (oe of them cpitt goods) durig the product io of cpi tl goods; Oe shoutd be ure tht my kids of mixed forms re possibte. The clcuttio of the combied cumutted effects c be simulted by djustig the origit 10tbte. Therefore, re hve to exted the 10tbte uith umber of "pseudoidustries". The rows of these idustries coti the iputs of cpitt goods, i.e. deprecitio by idustries. The Dutch 10tbte di stiguishes four ctegories of cpi tl goods: bui Ldigs, other costruct io uorks, trsport equipmet d other equipmet. The rous re very simi lr to the "orml" rous i ttte itermedite btock: the ormt rows tso shou cosumptio of certi type of commodities, viz. the commodities produced by the idustries cocered. I our 10tble the cotums of the pseudoidustries represet kid of iput structure. The cpitt goods re foud o the rous of the idustries which produce them. The colums ls0 coti iputs Like retit services, trsport costs, busiess services etc. It goes without syig tht colum totts shoutd equl row totls. By itroducig the cocept of pseudoidustries we mke sure tht oty reptcemet ivestmets wilt be recorded. Sice littte is kow bout the existig stocks of cpi tl yootls ue hve ssumed tht the compositio of bsket of reptcemet cpitt goods (i.e. the iputs i certi colum of pseudoidustry) is siiitr to its origit compositio.

10 Ue deote the thus costructed mtrix s A+. From this exteded mtrix, ue c recostruct the origil mtrix A by pplyig the selectio vectors s,. He re s (j) = 1 for j E l1 idustries except pseudoidustries = O for j E pseudoidustries Eiployig the exteded mtrix A+ we c repet the clcultios of sectios (31, edig up uith mtrix U;, uhich represets iputs of cpitl goods. So ou ue c clculte the effects ttributed to the cosumptio of cpitl goods. The clcultios for Ui uere mde uith the help of the itermedite mtrix A+ from (15). dy extedig the mtrices of (16) uith dummy rous d colums they vilt tke o the sme dimesios s the mtrices i other expressios. b. A pptictio to the Dutch groidustril busiess Agriculturl productio hs specil plce i the Dutch ecoomy, Before the secod uorld ur lrge prt of the Dutch Lbour force us employed i griculture. After the ur this situtio rpidly chged. t4echiztio d rtioliztio (d i the eighties computeriztio!) mde thei r irods o the umber of people employed d very soo oly sml L prt of the Lbour force ws still directly ivolved i the productio of foods. I spi te of this, the Netherlds remied mjor gri culturl producer d eve becme the secod Lrgest foodproducig coutry i the uor Ld. Cosideri g the smll d evershrikig griculturl re this c oly be ttributed to the highest griculturl productio per cpit i the uorld. lts ifluece o the trde btce is lredy obvious if oe just looks t the exports of tu griculturl products. Houever, this ifluece goes lot deeper: i fct the differece betuee the presetdy trde blce d fictitious oe uhich uoutd hve o Dutch productio t l1 uould relly demostrte its tremedous impct o the trde blce. (Of course the bsece of y griculturl productio is hypotheticl cse: gret umber of cosequeces, of the bsece of Dutch griculture uould be irreversible.

11 Therefore we hve to be very crefut if ue ut to study y chges i imports d exports). This differece is the strtigpoit of our study. Firstly, we uil1 cosider the expected chges i imports d exports. A chge i imports cosists of two compoets: icrese i the imports of gricutturl products to compeste the "wipeout" of domestic productio d decrese i imports of gricutturt products which ormlly woutd be eeded for the idustry "gricutture" itself. (A exmpte of the Lst compoet woutd be fodder, imported for domest ic Livestock. 1 The fi rst compoet c be ssumed to equ L the vtue of the domestic cosumptio: i cse domestic productio drops to zero, the customer uit1 simpty tur to imported products. Most probbly imported goods uil1 be stightly more expesive but, cosiderig the lou price elsticity of gr.iculturl products, the rise i prices woutd ot Led to substtit decrese i cosumptio. The secod compoet to be cosidered is the drop i imports of iputs for griculture tht would result uhe productio of gricutturt goods would be reduced to zero. The effects o the trde btce re to be mesured i terms of the et vlue dded t mrket prices. The totl cotributio of Dutch griculture to the trde b lce ou cosists of this et vlue dded tht would be Lost if lt gricutturt products uould hve to be imported d, i dditio, the cumulted et vlue ddid creted i the product io of exported gricuttur L product s. Here we emphsize the cocept of et vtue dded sice we tke ito ccout the effects resu Ltig from the cosumpt io of cpitt goods. UtiL ou we hve used the term "gricutturt products" rther LooseLy. It is time to defie it properly: 1. Cosider the output of the griculturl sector itsetf. We defie its primry effect to be the cuiutted vtue dded of the gricutturt productio i the Netherlds Wote tht this icludes more th just the direct imports d exports of gricutturt products: it lso icludes griculturt products, icorported i goods d services of other idustries, uhich i their tur re destied for fit cosumptio or exports.) 2. umber of idustries re depederrt o products of the dorestic gricutture to such extet, tht we c cosider their output s beig iduced by the Dutch gricutture. We c cosider them s the first forwrd

12 tikge of the Dutch gricutture. ExmpLes hve lredy bee give i sectio 2. Here we tke the view tht domestic foodprocessig idustries hve to rety o strog "exterl ecoomies", determied by the existece of domestic gricutture: without this gricutture oe of these idustries could hope to survive. Just compre the trsport costs of sugr uith those of sugr beets. We uil[ lso pss by the fct tht some of these idustries, ou tht they re firmty rooted i the ecoomy of the Netherlds, the positio to determie the hrvests tht shoutd be cultivted. The iterdepedece betuee gricutture d severt other idustries is of re i sigificce; we regret tht, becuse sufficiet dt is Lckig, we were ot bte to pursue this subject. 3. there is third ctivity iduced by gricutturt productio tht my be cosidered s (secod) forurd tikge: the services of the uhotesle idustry eeded for the exports of gricutturt goods d products of the domestic food processig idust ries. Without exports this ct ivi ty woutd ot hppe. O the other hd, services i behlf of cosumptio by households d govermet do ot cuse forwrd effects. If the domestic gricutturt productio woutd be reptced by imports, there uoutd sti'lt be Lot of trdig i these products. Here we.eglect the fct tht trde services would icrese stightty becuse i some cses these services woutd hve to be expded to reptce trde tht ou tkes ptce directly betwee producer (frmer) d cosumer. (A good exmpte is the direct trde of pottoes to ' households, frmers' potto crops.) which i the Nethertds c be up to 20% of the volume of the Sice i our clcultios i this sectio we oty cosider the effects, iduced by exports d cosumptio, o the trde blce, the mtrix Y witl iclude oty two colum vectors I sectio 3 we hve derived the formiile cocerig the output of severt idustries, iduced by direct effects d effects cused by forurd Likges. We ou clcutte the vtue dded by multiplyig the (digot) coefficiet mtrix c uith these formute. I this wy we fid the direct effect, cpitl goods o the clcuttios excludig the impct of the use of

13 d for the effect due to the firstforurd Likge The correspodig cotributios, cpitt goods re uhi ch c be re Lted to the cosumpt io of The secod forwrd tikge, s formulted i this sectio, hr Less geert form îh the formut i sectio 3. Here it ictudes oly Limited prt of the di rect exports of uhotes te trde services; services uhich re icorported i the remiig prt of the exports or i cosumptio re ccouted for. As cosequete the togo of (8) i expressio (121, idictiy uhich prt of the productio of the core idustry is icorported i fil demd ctegories, hs to be substituted by these exports. We ou suppose tht the mtrix of fil demd icludes oly the vectors x (exports) d c (cosumpt io) The vector i s defied s O < o(j) < 1 for j = 30 (thc rou of the.uholesie trde) o(j) = O for j # 30 This vector idictes the prt of the direct exports of uhoteste trde services tht c be cosidered s services redered to the exports of griculturl products. Thus the effect of the secod forurd Likge c be expressed s Here the secod prt of expressio (23) is bset, becuse by defiitio exports of uhoteste trde services re ot icorported i goods d services supptied by other idustries.

14 I the Sme wy we c ctcutte the effect ictudig the use of cpitt goods Specil ttetio hs bee pid to the impct of the EC policy o the vtue dded of gricutturl products by its wy of hdtig Levies d subsidies. fhe 3544 ml gui Lder btce of these tevies d subsidies, wrded by the Europe Oriettio d Qurtee Fud for Agricutture, shoutd be dded to the vlue dded recorded i the stdrd Dutch 10tbte. I prticutr, the vlue dded recorded for the idustries receivig these et subsidies o their products shoutd be rised.bi j the mout of these subsidies. As cosequece the figures for these idustries differ from those pubtished i the 10tbte. Severt correctios uere eeded to determie the effects of the cosumptio of cpitt goods o gricutture d ttte foodprocessig idustries. The correctios cocer the productio of ivestmet good by the gricutturt d food processig idustries. 7. The trde btce The resutts of our ctsuttios re summrized i the tbtes.l d 2. They give survey of the vtue dded tht c be imputcd to gricutture, s fr s the products re embodied i the bskets of cosumptio or exports. The bskets c be cosidered s represettive mesure of the importce of the groidustrit complex. I tbte 1 the geertio of the vtue dded by iridustry is disptyed; here we hve distiguished betwee the vrious forwrd Likges d the geertio of vtue dded tht c be retted to the cosumptio of cpitt goods. Every colum cotis both direct d idirect effects. I the first seve colums the vtue dded of the vrious idustries which c be retted to the cumutted exports of gricutturt products is shou. Of course Lrge prt (71%) of the geerted vtue dded show i the first colum c be ttributed to griculture but the cotribut io to other idustries, e.g. the uhoteste idustrie (9%) cot be egtected. I colum 2 estimtes re disptyed for the vtue dded geerted by those rep Lcemet ivestmets tht c be coected to colum 1. This mouts to erty 5% of the tott geerted vtue dded of the ivestmets by idustries (oe fourth prt of it stems from the buitdig costruct io idust ry Loe). The v lue dded geerted by the di rect d idi rect exports of products of the foodprocessig idust ry is represet ed by

15 colum 3. Except for the four processig idustries, the vtue dded is prticutrty geerted by the uhoteste trde. I colum 4 we hve estimted the vtue dded geerted by the "cosumptio" of the cpitt goods, tht c be relted to colum 3. I colum S ue fid the vtue dded tht c be relted to the trde services tht uere eeded to export thc yricutturt products. The uhoteste trde tkes up 80% here! We hve to tke ito ccout tht the devitios c be very lrge. Filty i colum 6 ue fid the vtue dded geerted by the reptcemet ivestmets of thc trde services.. I colum 7 we fid the sum of the colums 1 through 6: this is the vtue dded iduced i the Netherlds by the exports of griculturt products. With 43% gricutture domites the picture. Due to Lck of dt we uere ot'b~e to ctculte the cotributio brod of the Dutch trsports idustry to the geertio of the vtue dded. It must be cosiderble, cosiderig the fct tht the trsport idustry i the Nether lds lredy iduces 3.1 mld gui Lders of vtue dded. The colums of the cosumptio hve bee ctculted i the Sme uy. There is oe exceptio: the togo of the colums 5 d 6 hs bee omi tted. 1.f re woutd reptce domestic productio by imports, ue sti L L woutd hve to trede griculturt products; thus, the prt of the uhoteste trde tht c be relted to the domest i c cosumpt io of gricutturl product s shoutd ot be cosidered s iduced by Dut ch gri culture. The cotributios by idustry to the trde btce c be foud i colum 15. The tott of colum 13 gives idictio of the cotributio of griculture to the trde btce. This mouts 8,6X of the et domestic product. I colum 15 ue tso fid the suer to the questio of the sigificte of the gricultureiduced product io to the vrious idustries. Of course the griprocessig idust ry i s (ui th 6UX) Lrge Ly depedet o gri CU lture. The demd for fodder is the mi reso. AL1 together we fid tht 9% of the vlue dded geerted i the Netherlds c be ttrihuted to gricutture. Aother coctusio we c dru from tbte 1 is tht gricultiirt productio is highly importt for other Dutch idustries. More th 55% of the vtue dded, geerted by the product io of gri cuttur L product s for export s d cosumptio, is iduced i other idustries.

16 TbLe 1 clerly showed the importce of griculture for umber of Dutch idustries. Tble 2 shows US the iterdepedece of the groidustril complex d, more over, qutifies the direct d idirect effects. Seve groups re represeted, t l subdivided ito three sous: di rect, idirect d cpitt. Direct is ot Luys direct i the strict sece of the word: wheever quotes pper cosumut io by the processig idust ry is ic luded. The first three groups cocer the products of griculture proper, the ext two products of the p~ocessig idustry d fily the geertio of vlue dded for exports i the,trde services is show. ALtogether the exports of products of griculturl origi geerted directly d idirectly vluc dded of ml guitder i The cotributio of gricutture its2lf ws o!y 17% (for cosumptio this fiyure ws eve Lower, 11%). 8. Emp Loymet Substitutig the v2ctor t: of et vlue dded by the vector L of employmet i the expressios (l?).(2u), (23) d (241, ue obti the mtrices Lm d k Lm for the iduced employmet. ALogoi~s to tble 2, we fid i tble 3 the employmet per idustry relted to gri CU Ltur L th hlf mi L Lio persoyers re ivolved; Dutch Lbour force. exports d cosumpt io. this is bout 11% of the Right wy we otice tht here the cotributio of gricutture itself (51%) is cosiderbly higher th i the cse of vlue dded (44%). Iriduced emp Loymet i the wholesle trde is remrkble too (73UL)LI persoyers). HeLt ively importt cot ributios c be foud i the s Lughterig d met idust ry (24U0U), the di ry idust ry (71UUU1, the gri processig idust ry ( , the costructio idustry (14000), bkig (12U30) d busiess services (14U00). I cotrst to its cotributio to vlue dded the employmet cotributio of oil d gs explortio is egligibte, which is ot surprisig cosiderig the cpittitesive chrcter of the idustry. 9. Coclusio If we wt to kou the forwrd Likges of certi effect it is dvisble to ctculte ther icludig the ~tchig bckwrd Likges. Ue c void the pitfl1 tht flous re twice ccouted for by itroducig the cocept of selectio vectors.

17 A pplictio of the method to Dutch griculture mkes its importce clerly visibte. Its cotributio to the trde btce mout.ed up to 9% (28 mld guitder) of the 1981 et tiot icome. However, Lrger prt of the et vlue dded, iduced by Dutch griculture, is creted i other idustries. Besides griculture itsetf d the foodprocessig idustries the et vlue dded iduced i uhotesle trde d i oil d gs explottio is importt. Furthermore, bout 9% of the iduced vtue dded c be retted to the iduced product io of rep tcemet ivestmets. The depedece of bki g d gs distributio o griculture is tso bove verge. Emptoymet produces simi Lr pi cture. For every persoyer i gri culture persoyer is iduced i some other idustry. EspeciLLy i the wholesle trde Lrge umber of persoyers (73000 = % of its tott Lbour force) is i duced.

18 G Los sry bckurcl L i kges the idirect effects s fr s they re iduced i the supptyig idustries; the effects which c be retted to the cumulted cosumptio of cpitt goods re i c Luded core idustries tl~e idustries we hve sigled out to study, their bckwrd d forwrd tikges; Dutch gricuttuïe hs bee brought ito focus especitty i this pper the cumulted effects the cum of direct d idirect effects di rect effect s the effects tht c be retted to the productio of prticutr goods d services; i this pper they cocer the focused idustries effects exmptes of effects re e~ptoymet, vlue dded etc. forwrd tikges the direct effects retted to processig of d/or cosumig of goods d services by its buyers s fr s this resu Lts from the product io of these commoditi es, ptus the retted Likges mius the primry effects retted to the commodities to be processed i duced cf fect s the sum f primry effects d forurd tikges idi rect ef fects the effects retted to the productio of commodities tht c be tiked to the cumulted cosumptio of, idustry; here it exctudes the cosumptio of cpitl goods. It shoutd be oted tht idirect effects c Lso occur withi thc idustry itsetf priiry ef fects the sum of direct effects d bckwrd Likges

19

20 18 vector uith the tott productio of ech idustry the iduced productio, f i l demd ctegori es broke dow by idustries d the productio (cosumptio) betogig to the primry effect (r=o) or tbe mth forwrd effect (MN); excludig the cosumptio of cpit1 goods k Um U$ U: U, productio (corisumptio) retted to the primry effect (r=o) or the mth forwrd effect (m>o) s fr s they re relted to the cosumpt io of cpitt goods product io (cost~mptio) relted to the primry effect (m=o) or the mth forurd effect, ictudig the cosumptio of cpitt goods geertio of vlue dded relted to the primry effect (m=o) or the mth forwrd effect, excludig the cosumptio of cpitt goods k k, = k v m V., V U, geertio of vlue dded relted to the primry effect (m=o) or the mth forurd effëct of the cosumptio of cpit1 goods v vector of the geerted vlue dded v v = v t ' vector of the vlue dded coefficiets X vector of the exports mtrix of the fil demd ctegories (m our clcuttios oty exports d cosumptio re tke ito ccout) vector uhich extrcts the relevt exports of trde services from the vector of the exprts of goods d services

21 . I 2 c C u Y P O S C O Y O V C C N h U O m 2 o j m c o v.6~ r o m e r u ~ m scu cuuz c o o u c o r O r< rt I m o r o ~ 0 o o o o o o o o o o o or o o ohr0 o r vesu Q ~ O N ~ o~ ru ouru N u 6 m ~ o r ~ o ~ sd uu c r m v ~ i. ~ e Q o~ 01cm J D N Q ~ unqh c r( r. I e < LI P o e m r c N c E l t C O N " ~ Q ~ Nm ~ J c e 41r ~ o u o oemo ~ e u umhcg e ~ c o o o.vq ee p ~.~RNU 4~ ~s e P Q mnd 4Qocm U* r< N I 0 z J u e J P C CN OIL, 04, I C C C. * o *O u R: E C M L O L 0%. C O U I ^,. 2 Cr; U I 0 Y L U. z u,,i L 3 C U L L l. RU.L c i :z C O?u.. 0 U I Q " U h odemo ~ m m u c 040 N., o o u ON NN mm r< ~ Q O Q Q um0re C ~ N ~ mi c r ~ m~ u o r u om o r P u mu r Q I U m I Q N 8.0 u omn 3 QOCMO OONOO c d m c rc~ eou ~ CJNN* ~ o w r u URN 4 N,,. ~ O Q J Q oorp 8 U C c m o u o c om r S. crm w o c orrou u uo r u r m Q J N N r t o ~ r U J ~ SQUQO ~ Q N N u ~ m e oens orm o ~ m e cm u v.. ~ Y C J N r ~.IJIAN rll?~~ H O C ~ P u o c 1,. O C ~ C Y N N r RN )C i m N u N J Q u o O O O r< O m m. C l,? P Y C C Q L. N I Y u O c u L +i, ml. 4 OP L V v L C Y P Y J..,, wm. 5 L m * m 2:' * C 3, Y L *r t ~ O O ~ N mchw ~ 0 0 m o o e Om <.i ~ O J O I 1 0 0, oor ~oc om0 ud hmme u e DN N U r(, 2.3,r<+ u omo o o o o O N ~ O ou u16 ~ oo N JQ r( u I C ~ P P o m ~ O ~ N ~ omeom Q ~r NOQQI m o ~ m 1.0 PA D c C N 0 u 722Z Z N,. '4 N r m Q Q N ~ o. I JOGNO NONN JYI'im", 4 W N 0 0 Osh NC i II mi)hi*qy) R IY>dCI Y P Y N C. W L " r. u 2 L05.i, I C P4 * C P. f O Y u U 3 Y à u f L m C Z C c L0'5;. U O L NJ L UII'. Y * U o DN ~ N N I * c,.oh~mm2s c c o u m 04 ~ Otd " I N r( Y C. U L C L Y O m E u Y Y Y * o 5 c P C m U Y L Y Y C Y m L L LP^. " * m u L Y O O C 3 M O Y > C Y H S L L C O U P Y. 4, I * ) m. Y Y U U m O O U I *. m Y. ; t* u E L 859 m L o C Y C * Y C M Y Y L Y = O X Y Y o O b. u Y O I U U t Y L O > L L U C U > C mmo > 3 *LU DYC f u m Y C m O > o Y C L U.> w L U * ' * U S D 10 b.i L u Y J > L " O L L Y * L O L L U.I * C L L C * M U C C U. P * > * m C C.L' 0 2 D Y R S h i r.* h O O r. O 2 = L I H O!L i Y U C 2 b L m c U m P ~ CO.. u c m OU I m C C O C Y L > U u m e Y Y S U O.I Y L P C Y U C K L # L c.** O. L Y c r m r i c L L. P M m U I ~ O Y I Y ~ ~ E t o e W C u* ~ L C m I O E C D W C L Y Y P U * O P C O C L L m 3 m Y H C 3 LU.>. I u> U ~ L C L uo ~ i ~ M L L Y Y Y * 3 O U * L * Y. C L U.o u Li. m = 0 Y 1 c L *Y" Y O Z C. L U *. 0 3 U > o.y C Y I I * " L * L L * > P LPU J U Y+ c r m ~ U L L Y.. Y r Y Y L u* J &,CL 3 D U O Y Y U h C C > > > C L P Y Y LL... Y L C C C Y L.* Y L C L C D U r 3 m b u L N Y C Y U Y ~ U O L U u u e m m C ~ ur. ur:. c c u L O U U E m m 3 1 u~. m C * s c Z * c L UI c L s e f L. L & > m ~ C c c * S L U.*,."!. C L,. I. L 0.WOU..*L Y U L Y C r<.,.> I L. Y 3. L D U 3 > C 6 3 O I U Y i D > S U 3 J U U U* r C L F >* Y i ~ u C C I U. ~ L O O C Y C ; >. ~ C U L C C H U W c o u & t C * u u.~.* L I L? D O O U Y s z m c c c * m o r o r r c o s c. 0 0 uj L P 0 L D Y > > Y O?i;; D L M i.i...uovi C U D Y ) ~ ïxzl L>LLOIOII: EYILC YOZLIX XPYIOU ~i ru u " Q O N r e g R N 4 N Q r< d c O Y L. Y 3 Y L u c * f P L.c Y 3, Y O P C Li m u.. Y u > L O ' *, Y L YU O Y Y Y. s; C u c Y(O 2 U U m. 6 " P 4, * c K L L * U. u L Y L O 4, O u C L >

22

23 P. e 4, C O w. ':::P o B. > X L C u O U o Y N L Y L 3 SE U L L m Y.. C 2 CN L 3 l. U o c.r00 3 t C o U N t m? m C " D"" " s;;; 5 C * I 1. 0 Yto 0 U uso * XU. I.. Q"* U.. c. umw IY U u * u Li m Q*,* N L I Y e u * u S Z c 0 WL*, "U L Y 8 km m?. P L C" PY.?.*\.e Y 3 * 3 U L *u O U C.. L U. P O L P Y * N L L usuo 0000 ~ O O O U Y) oooow r000 o o o ~ o d o r o O. m o o o ~ d o r NONO e, J ~ N O ~4co OUOH N W ~ ~ N N '4,, r..l r ( " m *<*NO NO ++eo N00 u~ ocdor r m d o " t ~ 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o ~ ~ o o o r< D OOONN O v o o o o o o ~ o o 000 o o o o0000 o o o ~ oo w o o O Y.. Y) UOOOI '*Y)CNO 0 e ~ NAOY) NNO OU * o e ~RN NU Q t o o o t,oot0 ooooo o o o o e o o o o o o 00,000, ," O O O I A.O'OO 00, OOOOd d d , o o o NY)ONO OOONO 0000~ o m 0000 NO^O O u ~ Z " i I u m ; N H O Q U O P O I O D O N c.m O"<"O U L... P couoo 0or.00 C ~ o ~ r < o o o ~ o r r urmo N E O 0 i u*o r( o,.m < u u z u. L I L K U Li r4. * ; Y 1. c P m P O Y w * D Y C * L m U Y. L 02.I J Y Y Y I L L U O,. O, M * u L Y. O O C 2 M O u 3 Y * W C b L. L 1 0 uo v. Y P * C m. Y Y U O O M I S P * C Y K * C * Y Y L r O ~ Y 1 O c O U u u m e U UT Y L O ~ L L H C U C mmo u > YLU OYI U * * Y * u > > O.I C L U.> Y t u e US u > C O u. Y L L L. O C L u O L L ~ O m. Y > m >, 1' L U O > P R O L L YILO L LU *. Y t L Y PC* uf f o i P *>ur c u u o L 0 3 O Y C L e O Y 01. d * u O r 2 w 0.. U L > E L DiC Y. C0.I Y c * OU C U c. o * L?UUYY *..Cu L s Y L C C Y ii Y L. L I L Ou L Y CY*. L u* OIO, UuOY ii;;är "EO* YC OLi OLC O c c * UK LYIIO*.u. CO CL I * * C mm... u> UILT Y0 Y. 3 m ~ P ~ * I h L L V * C L L. * M * Y Y * J OU*L* Y.CLU..*o Y.L m0 ',..Y* *CL.Z *P" ;o0,=guoc W 0c.c u LC=;$ w.l >O I s o ~ L i > Y Y L u* 2 Y Z L O E c 4.3 * s > c LP*,* LCIS.ce c Y..w Y 'CL c o c IOIC. L.*~,YU u'u O L U uylim ~ O E Y P.ucu ctkt *OUUT:. w ~ OY ~ C H C w I WL. I c ~ L. L * ~ L C c C S * C C L <:Lyi$% ~ ~ C Lm L &O iiuuuc.ysr.l U O L I I I.rL L L I CV*> I I C. ~ ~ E *,.cu>u U C * r. W L s>* ^Y, * > i s c c r o r o o ~ rr>*c u u c r u r * u c o u e c r s c * > u I :LA;;; ;;;:: U2zzi? í?z,???= Z ;z;g ;!:; PAPO2 O O " Y C f h," N w C< Y) u N " Q f. 1 V ff J Q O I, C c1 N

24 Avilble Occsiol Ppers NA/OI NA/O2 NA/03 Flexibility i the system of Ntiol ccouts, 1983 The uobserved ecoomy d the Ntiol Accouts i the Nether lds, sesi tivi ty lysis, 1983 Secodry ctivi ties d the Ntiol Accouts: Aspects of the Dutch mesuremet prctice d its effects o the uofficil ecoomy, 1985 R. v Eck, C.N. Gorter d H.K. v Tuie G.A.A.M. Broesterhuize R. v Eck NA/04 Comprbi li ty of iputoutput tb les i time, 1985 P.C. A l d G. A. A.M. Broesterhuize NA/05 NA/06 Theuse of chi idices for defltig thentiol Accouts, 1985 Revisio of the system of Ntiol Accouts: the cse for f lexibi lity, 1985 Itegrt io of iput/output tb les d sector ccouts; possible solutio, 1985 P.G. Al, B.M. Blk, S. de Boer d G.P. de Bkker C.A. v Bochove d H.K. v Tuie C. v.d. Bos A ote o Dutch Ntiol Accoutory dt , 1985 C.A. v Bochove The structure of the ext SIJA: bsic optios, 1985 review of the C.A. v Bochove d A.M. Bloem Dul sectorig i Ntiol Accouts, 1985 Bckwrd d forwrd likges with ppli ctio to the Dutch groidustril complex, 1985 R. Hrthoor Productio chis, 1986 R. Hrthoor The simulteous compiltio of curret price d def lted iputoutput tb les, 1986 S. de Boer d G.A.A.M. Broesterhuize A proposl for the syoptic structure of the ext SNA P.G. C.A. A l d v Bochove Fetures of the hidde ecoomy i the NetherLds R. v Eck d B. Kzemier Ucoveric hidde icome distributios: the Dutch pproch C.A. v Eochove