Measuring. Information Society

Transcription

1 International Telecommunication Union Measuring the Information Society 2013

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3 International Telecommunication Union Measuring THE Information Society 2013

4 2013 ITU International Telecommunication Union Place des Nations CH-1211 Geneva Switzerland Original language of publication: English. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the International Telecommunication Union. ISBN ii

5 Foreword I am pleased to present to you the 2013 edition of Measuring the Information Society (MIS). Now in its fifth year, this annual report identifies key ICT developments and tracks the cost and affordability of ICT services, in accordance with internationally agreed methodologies. Its core feature is the ICT Development Index (IDI), which ranks countries performance with regard to ICT infrastructure and uptake. The report aims to provide an objective international performance evaluation based on quantitative indicators and benchmarks, as an essential input to the ICT policy debate in ITU Member States. The 2013 edition also presents the latest results of the ICT Price Basket (IPB), and the first complete price data set for mobile-broadband services; the first-ever model to measure the world s digital native population; and a quantitative assessment of recent digital TV broadcasting trends. Over 250 million people came online over the last year, and almost 40 per cent of the world s population will be using the Internet by end Mobile technology and services continue to be the key driver of the information society, and the number of mobilebroadband subscriptions is close to 2 billion. Mobile-broadband networks are allowing more people to connect to highspeed networks and benefit from a growing number of applications and services. While both fixed- and mobile-broadband speeds continue to increase, the price of services is falling and ICTs are becoming more affordable: in the space of four years, fixed-broadband prices have dropped by an impressive 82 per cent. At the same time, the report also shows that ICT uptake remains limited in many developing countries, and particularly in the world s least connected countries (LCCs) a group of 39 countries (home to 2.4 billion people) with particularly low levels of ICT development. In this group of countries, ICTs can become key enablers for achieving international and national development goals and have the greatest development impact, and more policy attention needs to be directed towards them. Young people all over the world are the most active users of ICTs. For the first time, a model has been developed to estimate the number of digital natives - the young people with solid ICT experience who are drivers of the information society. While 30 per cent of the youth population are digital natives today, the report shows that within the next five years, the digital native population in the developing world is expected to double. The report also sheds new light on the latest digital TV broadcasting trends, another key driving force of the growing information society. The TV industry has undergone an important shift during the past few years and, in 2012, the number of households with digital TV overtook the number of households with analogue TV. This achievement reinforces the dual role of TV broadcasts: fulfilling some of the public services associated with communications and being a major market for private content creators, distributors and networks. I trust that the data and analysis contained in this report will be of great value to the ITU membership, including policymakers, the ICT industry and others working towards building an inclusive global information society. Brahima Sanou Director Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) International Telecommunication Union iii

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7 Acknowledgements The 2013 edition of Measuring the Information Society was prepared by the ICT Data and Statistics Division within the Telecommunication Development Bureau of ITU. The team included Susan Teltscher (Head of Division), Vanessa Gray, Esperanza Magpantay, Doris Olaya and Ivan Vallejo. The following consultants to ITU provided substantive inputs: Lisa Kreuzenbeck, Michael Best (Chapter 4), and Simon Murray (Chapter 5). Fernando Callorda, Diana Korka, Christoph Stork and Shazna Zuhely contributed to the compilation of data sets on prices. Helpful inputs and suggestions were received from the following ITU colleagues: Istvan Bozoski, Pham Hai, Aurora Rubio, Sameer Sharma, Anne Rita Ssemboga and Marcelino Tayob. The work was carried out under the overall direction of Cosmas Zavazava, Chief, Project Support and Knowledge Management Department, Telecommunication Development Bureau. The report includes data from Digital TV Research, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, UNCTAD, the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, the United Nations Population Division and the World Bank, which is greatly acknowledged. ITU also appreciates the cooperation of countries that have provided data included in this report. The report was edited by Anthony Pitt and Bruce Granger, ITU English Translation Section. The desktop publishing was carried out by Nathalie Delmas, and the cover was designed by Céline Désthomas. Administrative support was provided by Herawasih Yasandikusuma. v

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9 Table of contents Foreword...iii Acknowledgements...v Table of contents... vii Chapter 1. Introduction Recent trends in ICT developments Overview of the report Chapter 2. The ICT Development Index (IDI) Introduction to the IDI Global IDI analysis Monitoring the digital divide: developed, developing and least connected countries IDI sub-indices: access, use and skills Regional IDI analysis Chapter 3. Measuring the cost and affordability of broadband Introduction Fixed-broadband prices Mobile-broadband prices Comparison of mobile-broadband with fixed-broadband and mobile-cellular prices The mobile-broadband sub-basket Chapter 4. Measuring the world s digital natives Introduction Review of the literature Quantifying digital natives Analysis of the results Conclusions vii

10 Chapter 5. Digital TV broadcasting trends Growth of households with a TV The growth of digital TV TV reception by platform TV reception by region Pay-TV reception Digital switchover Over-the-top Internet TV and video Conclusions and recommendations List of references Annex 1. ICT Development Index (IDI) methodology Annex 2. ICT price data methodology Annex 3. Statistical tables of indicators used to compute the IDI Annex 4. Statistical tables of prices used to compute the ICT Price Basket viii

11 List of charts 1.1 Global ICT developments, Active mobile-broadband subscriptions, world and by level of development, , penetration (left) and annual growth (right) Active mobile-broadband subscriptions, by region and level of development, Mobile data traffic, (forecasts), total (left) and by end-user device (right) Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions, world and by level of development, , penetration (left) and annual growth (right) Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions, by region and level of development, Telecommunication revenues, world and by level of development, , total in USD (left) and annual growth (right) Annual investment (CAPEX) of telecommunication operators, world and by level of development, , total in USD (left) and annual growth (right) Households with Internet access, world and by level of development, , penetration (left) and annual growth (right) Households with Internet access, by region and level of development, Households with a TV, a computer and Internet, by level of development, Individuals using the Internet, world and by level of development, , penetration (left) and annual growth (right) Individuals using the Internet, by region and level of development, IDI, world and by level of development IDI access sub-index, world and by level of development IDI use sub-index, world and by level of development IDI skills sub-inde, world and by level of development IDI and GNI per capita IDI and IPB Countries with a national broadband plan IDI ranges and averages, by region, IDI values compared with the global, regional and developing/developed-country averages, Africa, Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, Africa, 2011 and IDI values compared with the global, regional and developing/developed-country averages, Arab States, ix

12 2.12 Individuals using the Internet, Arab States, 2011 and IDI values compared with the global, regional and developing/developed-country averages, Asia and the Pacific, Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, Asia and the Pacific, 2011 and IDI values compared with the global, regional and developing/developed-country averages, CIS, Households with Internet access, CIS, 2011 and IDI values compared with the global, regional and developing/developed-country averages, Europe, Wireless-broadband subscriptions, Europe, 2011 and IDI values compared with the global, regional and developing/developed-country averages, the Americas, Households with Internet access, the Americas, 2011 and Fixed-broadband prices, as a percentage of GNI p.c. (left) and annual change (right), Fixed-braodband median price per Mbit/s, in USD, world and by level of development, 2008 and Fixed-broadband prices, as a percentage of GNI p.c., by level of development, number of countries, Fixed-broadband prices, as a percentage of GNI p.c., by region, Purchasing-power-adjusted fixed-broadband prices in the Africa region, Purchasing-power-adjusted fixed-broadband prices in the Americas region, Purchasing-power-adjusted fixed-broadband prices in the Arab States region, Purchasing-power-adjusted fixed-broadband prices in the Asia and the Pacific region, Purchasing-power-adjusted fixed-broadband prices in the CIS region, Purchasing-power-adjusted fixed-broadband prices in the Europe region, Mobile-broadband prices as a percentage of GNI p.c., world and by level of development, Mobile-broadband prices, in USD, world and by level of development, Mobile-broadband prices, in PPP$, world and by level of development, Mobile-broadband prices, in USD, world, Mobile-broadband prices per GB, in USD, world, Mobile-broadband and fixed-broadband prices, as a percentage of GNI p.c., world and by level of development, Postpaid fixed-broadband and postpaid computer-based mobile-broadband prices, as a percentage of GNI p.c., by region, Mobile-broadband and mobile-cellular prices as a percentage of GNI p.c., world and by level of development (left) and comparison (right), x

13 3.19 Mobile-broadband sub-basket, as a percentage of GNI p.c., by level of development, number of countries, Relationship between the mobile-broadband sub-basket and mobile-broadband penetration, Digital natives as a percentage of total population, top countries (left) and bottom countries (right), Relationship between digital natives as a percentage of total population and the IDI value Digital natives as a percentage of total population, by region and level of development (left) and by income (right), Population distribution by age group and gender, Egypt, Percentage of population in the age group 15-24, by region and level of development (left), and income group (right), Digital natives as a percentage of youth (15-24), by region and level of development (left), and by income group (right), Percentage of digital natives among youth Internet users, Ratio of youth (15-24) Internet usage to overall Internet usage, by region and level of development (left), and by income group (right), Relationship between the ratio of youth (15-24) Internet users to overall Internet users (y-axis) and percentage of total population aged (x-axis), by income group, Relationship between digital natives as a percentage of total population and school enrolment, by education level, Relationship between digital natives as a percentage of total population, 2012 and primary enrolment, Relationship between digital natives as a percentage of total population and ratio of females to males in school enrolment, by education level, Households with a TV, world and by level of development, Households with a TV, by region, Top seven countries by number of households with a TV, Households with digital TV, world and by level of development, Households with digital TV, by region, Top seven countries by number of households with digital TV, 2008 and Households with a TV by type of technology, Households with a TV by four main technologies, Households with only terrestrial TV broadcasting, by region, Households with only analogue terrestrial TV broadcasting, by region, Number of countries by % of households with analogue terrestrial TV broadcasting, xi

14 5.12 Households with only DTT, by region, Households with CATV, by region, Households with digital CATV (left) and analogue CATV (right), by region, Households with DTH satellite TV, by region, Households with pay DTH satellite TV, by region, Households with FTA DTH satellite TV, by region, Households with IPTV, by region, Households with a TV by type of technology, Africa, Households with a TV by type of technology, Arab States, Households with a TV by type of technology, Asia and the Pacific, Households with a TV by type of technology, CIS, Households with a TV by type of technology, Europe, Households with a TV by type of technology, Americas, Households with pay TV, world and by development level, Households with pay TV, by region, Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2008 and Households with DTT, world and by level of development, Households with DTT, by region, Households with pay DTT, Africa and Europe, List of figures 2.1 Three stages in the evolution towards an information society ICT Development Index: indicators, reference values and weights IDI spider charts, selected dynamic countries, 2011 and Mobile-broadband services by type of end-user device and plan Methodology for the mobile-broadband sub-basket Distribution of digital natives across countries (absolute numbers), Digital natives as a percentage of total population, xii

15 4.3 Percentage of population in the age group 15-24, Ratio of youth (15-24) Internet users to overall Internet users, Main TV-distribution technologies DTT standard adoption by country, January List of boxes 1.1 Monitoring the ICT gender gap ITU expert groups From active-mobile broadband to wireless broadband Europe counts on ICTs: The Digital Agenda for Europe Smarter phones and faster networks are driving data usage and revenues in Australia Competition pushes Costa Rica above the regional average Oman boasts second highest wireless-broadband subscriptions penetration in the region An ICT user profile from the United Arab Emirates Rural roll-out in Zambia The least connected countries (LCCs) home to 2.4 billion people are not making enough progress to reduce the digital divide Abundant and secure international Internet bandwidth and fast broadband to protect and run Hong Kong (China) s financial centre Kenya largest amount of international Internet bandwidth per Internet user in Africa Cambodia s heated mobile market Growth in broadband networks brings more Albanians online Data issues: Comparability and transparency Rules applied in collecting mobile-broadband prices Available mobile-broadband plans according to different monthly data allowances To what extent are fixed-broadband and mobile-broadband prices and services comparable? Youth and ICT: the BYN D 2015 Global Youth Summit Survey depicts optimistic millennial generation that believes in the potential of ICTs Digital native model xiii

16 5.1 Historic developments in TV broadcasting North America and Europe Measuring TV uptake The ITU GE06 Agreement The digital TV boom in Brazil List of tables 2.1 IDI values and changes, 2011 and ICT Development Index (IDI), 2011 and Most dynamic countries changes between IDI 2011 and IDI by level of development, 2011 and IDI by groups, 2011 and IDI access sub-index, 2011 and Top ten economies with the greatest change in the IDI access sub-index, by absolute value change (left) and rank change (right) IDI use sub-index, 2011 and Top ten economies with the greatest change in IDI use sub-index, by absolute value change (left) and rank change (right) IDI skills sub-index, 2011 and IDI by region, 2011 and The top five economies in each region and their ranking in the global IDI, IDI Africa IDI Arab States IDI Asia and the Pacific IDI CIS IDI Europe IDI The Americas Minimum advertised fixed-broadband speeds, percentage of countries, 2008 and Fixed-broadband prices, Fixed-broadband prices ranges and averages as a percentage of GNI p.c., by region, xiv

17 3.4 Fixed-broadband prices, Africa, Fixed-broadband prices, the Americas, Fixed-broadband prices, Arab States, Fixed-broadband prices, Asia and the Pacific, Fixed-broadband prices, CIS, Fixed-broadband prices, Europe, Mobile-broadband prices as a percentage of GNI p.c., by region, Mobile-broadband prepaid handset-based prices (500 MB), Mobile-broadband postpaid handset-based prices (500 MB), Mobile-broadband prepaid computer-based prices (1 GB), Mobile-broadband postpaid computer-based prices (1 GB), Comparison of postpaid fixedbroadband and postpaid computer-based mobile-broadband prices, percentage of countries, by region, Comparison of postpaid fixed-broadband and postpaid computer-based mobile-broadband plans in selected countries, Mobile-broadband sub-basket and its components, ICT Price Basket and sub-baskets, 2011 and Fixed-telephone sub-basket, 2011 and Mobile-cellular sub-basket, 2011 and Fixed-broadband sub-basket, 2011 and Digital natives, Internet user penetration, youth and total population, Countries that have assigned part of the digital dividend to mobile-broadband networks Prices of DTT set-top boxes (STB) in selected African countries, July Top 15 countries by percentage of households with pay TV, BBC iplayer requests by device, Q Q4 2012, millions Netflix subscriptions by type of service, Q Q4 2012, millions xv

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19 Measuring the Information Society 2013 Chapter 1. Introduction 1.1 Recent trends in ICT developments As more and more people join the global information society and high-speed communication networks become an indispensable infrastructure, the tracking and measurement of developments in information and communication technologies (ICTs) remain as relevant as ever. According to ITU estimates, there will be 6.8 billion mobile-cellular subscriptions by the end of 2013 almost as many as there are people on the planet. While the ubiquitous availability of mobile-telephone services is undeniable, with close to 100 per cent of the population covered by a mobile signal, not everyone has a mobile phone. From a measurement point of view, the ongoing challenge thus remains to identify those who are still left without access to ICTs. By end 2013, there will be an estimated 2.7 billion people using the Internet worldwide. In other words, there are still 4.4 billion people who are not yet online. Priority attention needs to be given to the unconnected, and action needs to be taken to improve the accessibility and affordability of broadband Internet services everywhere in order to usher in an inclusive information society. Over the past year, ICT deployment and uptake have continued to grow worldwide (Chart 1.1). While growth in mobile-cellular penetration is flattening, reaching 96 per cent by end 2013, mobile broadband continues to grow strongly, on average by around 40 per cent annually between 2010 and Fixed-broadband uptake, on the other hand, is growing more slowly at around 10 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) albeit steadily, across both developing and developed regions. Reflecting the strong growth in mobile Internet uptake, growth in household access to the Internet has also accelerated over the past three years, mainly in the developing world, and will reach a penetration rate of over 40 per cent globally by end As a comparison, this figure corresponds to about half the proportion of households worldwide that have a TV (almost 80 per cent penetration in 2012: see below and Chapter 5). Infrastructure trends From ubiquitous mobile to ubiquitous broadband? In view of the steep growth of mobile broadband and the widespread deployment of mobile infrastructure, expectations are high that mobile-broadband services will become equally as available as mobile-cellular telephony in the near future. Indeed, Ericsson forecasts that by 2018 there will be 6.5 billion mobile-broadband subscriptions, almost as many as there are mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions in Today, almost all people on Earth live somewhere within reach of a mobile-cellular signal. Not all of those networks, however, have been upgraded to 3G technology, which is necessary to qualify as mobile broadband and provide highspeed access to the Internet. By end 2012, the percentage of the world s population covered by a 3G network was around 50 per cent. In the large majority of countries, 3G services are now commercially available, at least in major urban areas. As networks are being upgraded and services accordingly offered in the market, mobile-broadband subscriptions will continue to grow strongly. ITU estimates that, by end 1

20 Chapter 1. Introduction Chart 1.1: Global ICT developments, * Per 100 inhabitants/households Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions 96.2 Households with Internet access Individuals using the Internet Active mobile-broadband subscriptions Fixed-telephone subscriptions Fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions * 2013* Note: * Estimate. Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. 2013, there will be around 2 billion mobile-broadband subscriptions, corresponding to a global penetration rate of almost 30 per cent (Chart 1.2). Mobile broadband has been the fastest growing market segment over the past few years, with a 40 per cent average annual growth (CAGR) since It is growing rapidly not only in developed but also in developing countries, where subscriptions doubled over the past two years and now outnumber subscriptions in developed countries. Even in Africa, penetration rates will reach almost 11 per cent by end 2013, up from 2 per cent only three years earlier, and will continue to grow strongly (Chart 1.3). Differences between developed and developing countries remain substantial, however, with 75 per cent penetration Chart 1.2: Active mobile-broadband subscriptions, world and by level of development, *, penetration (left) and annual growth (right) Per 100 inhabitants Developed World Developing % Developed World Developing * 2013* * 2012*-13* Note: * Estimate. Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. 2

21 Measuring the Information Society 2013 Chart 1.3: Active mobile-broadband subscriptions, by region and level of development, 2013* Per 100 inhabitants Africa Arab States Asia & Pacific CIS The Americas Europe Developing World Developed Note: * Estimate. Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. in the former compared with 20 per cent in the latter (Chart 1.3). In developed countries, mobile-broadband uptake continues to grow at double-digit rates and has not yet reached saturation, although a slowdown is to be expected in the near future. A major difference between developed and developing countries is that, in developed countries, mobile broadband is often a complement to rather than a substitute for fixed-broadband access. In developing countries, mobile broadband took off in 2010, and penetration rates will have increased from 4.4 per cent to almost 20 per cent by end In addition to mobile-broadband services, a number of countries and operators, especially from the developing world, where fixed networks are very limited, have chosen to develop other wireless broadband services, in particular WiMAX services, which are now offered in almost 100 countries. In those countries, wireless Internet access either through the mobile-broadband network or via fixed wireless or satellite is often the only alternative to fixed (wired) Internet access. 2 For the time being, the difference between the number of mobile-broadband and wireless-broadband subscriptions is small, globally speaking. This means that the share of WiMAX subscriptions is very small, although it should be borne in mind that countries are just starting to collect the data, and it is to be expected that the share will increase in the future. For some countries, WiMAX is already quite significant, for example Bahrain, Pakistan and Nigeria, where about half the wireless-broadband subscriptions are WiMAX subscriptions. The use of Internet via wireless networks and devices will continue to grow strongly, accompanied and/or driven by an ever-increasing supply of mobile applications and services in the markets. An important trend highlighted in previous reports (ITU, 2012a), and which will continue in the near future, is the shift from voice to data traffic. According to Cisco (2013a), global mobile data traffic grew by 70 per cent in 2012, to a level which corresponds to almost 12 times the entire Internet traffic in Half of the traffic was video traffic. Cisco forecasts that global mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold between 2012 and Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 66 per cent from 2012 to 2017, reaching 11.2 exabytes per month by 2017 (Cisco, 2013a) (Chart 1.4). The growth in traffic, mostly driven by smartphones, is closely linked to the spread of 4G services. While insignificant today, 3 by G is predicted to account for 10 per cent of mobile connections and 45 per cent of total mobile traffic. 3

22 Chapter 1. Introduction Chart 1.4: Mobile data traffic, (forecasts), total (left) and by end-user device (right) Exabytes per month Exabytes per month Other portable devices (0.2%) Non-smartphones (1.4%) M2M (5.1%) Tablets (11.7%) Laptops (14%) Smartphones (67.5%) Note: Figures in legend (right chart) refer to traffic share in Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013a. The strong growth in mobile data traffic puts enormous pressure on mobile networks faced with limited spectrum. As the industry is constantly requesting additional spectrum for mobile broadband such as 4G/ LTE, and in order to keep pace with demand, policymakers and regulators should consider adopting regulatory measures to promote flexible and effective frequency-management tools such as spectrum trading and refarming (ITU, 2013b). A large proportion of mobile data traffic will be offloaded on fixed (wired) networks, for example through WiFi connections (33 per cent was offloaded in 2012 according to Cisco, 2013a). Since a lot of data activity takes place in households or other locations where fixed (wired)- broadband and WiFi access is available, and since more and more devices used include WiFi capacity, data offloading will increase as well. This takes some of the pressure off mobile networks, but at the same time requires improved fixed (wired) infrastructure. Chart 1.5: Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions, world and by level of development, *, penetration (left) and annual growth (right) Per 100 inhabitants 30 Developed World 25 Developing % Developed World Developing 2012*-13* Note: * Estimate. Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. 4