Foresight and strategy work at Tekes

Transcription

1 Foresight and strategy work at Tekes Examples of Foresight Methodology Pirjo Kyläkoski Dm #

2 Agenda Why How What and Where DM

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4 Maailman teollisuustuotannon jakauma % Itä-Aasia = Kiina, Japani, Intia Pohjois-Amerikka = Yhdysvallat, Kanada Eurooppa = Saksa, Iso-Britannia, Ranska, Italia, Espanja, Ruotsi, Belgia, Sveitsi Itä-Aasia Pohjois-Amerikka Eurooppa Lähteet: Bairoch (1982), ETLA. 4

5 Tuottavuuskasvun pääajurien pitkä historia Pajarinen Rouvinen Ylä-Anttila: Missä arvo syntyy? Suomi globaalissa kilpailussa. Taloustieto (ETLA B 247). Sivu 22.

6 Does the value network still smile? Value added R&d&i Design Proto, pilot Start of production Branding Service, maintain Marketing Selling Distribution High cost countries Low cost countries Mass production Pre production Production After production Intangible phase Tangible Intangible phase Source: ETLA

7 Some challenges for approaches and practises Network agility Uncertainty Complexity Interdependancy Spontaneity Unexpectedness Creativity Wisdom DM

8 Agenda Why How What and Where DM

9 Utilization of foresight Foresight-> Insight -> Strategy -> Actions

10 Tekes Foresight and strategy work Strategy process Trends and drivers Strategy Focus areas Year 3 Implementation through customers - Programs - SHOKs - Projects Year 2 Year1 Strategy process Trends and drivers Strategy process Trends and drivers

11 Foresight triangle Visionary Linear Disruptive

12 Foresight Development of Innovation ecosystem Benchmarkinformation Foresight - Insight Strategy Past Decision making Future Evaluation Implementation Operations and their implications

13 Levels in drivers of change Megatrends Changes in Innovation ecosystem Signals DM

14 Analysis of Innovation Environment Economy and Business environment Demography Socio-cultural values and attitudes approaches and practises Innovation ecosystem Political legal Global environmental (sustainability) Scientific technological

15 How to monitor early discontinuities? Wisdom of crowds Filter Theory Signal strength Threshold of mainstream awareness signal Zone of diminishing returns noise Time Zone of highest opportunity and greatest risks Brian Coffman (1997): Growth of signal in a noisy channel

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17 Starting point in search of renewal Wide committment Disruptive paths Combining different needs Renewal DM

18 Foresight metodology Megatrends, trends, signals Analysis of business environment Crowd-sourcing commitment Workshops, sudden collisions multidiciplinarity Visioning scenarios, future windows, future pictures, narratives, future telling Sense-making sessions signals, international expertise, crowd sourcing Delfoi-techniques, social media Disruptive paths, paradigm changes, black swans, extreme events White spots Context maps to show integrated complex content Benchmarking Road-maps DM

19 Agenda Why How What and Where DM

20 The interface of Tekes strategy Global business environment and global players Trends and drivers MFA Embassy Network Ministries MoJ MoD PM s Office MFA MSAH MTC MoE MEE MAF MoI Tekes vision, strategy and resources MEnv Strategic themes Multidisciplinary competences needed for themes MoF FinNode network Global foresight EU, USA, China Japan and other countries MFA Embassy Network Global megatrends and weak signals Finpro Finnvera Potential areas for new business from cooperation or paradigm changes of clusters Society s values and goals Regional strategies and visions Industry organisations and their strategies Customer relationships, programmes, project funding strategy discussions Enterprises Research organisations, universities e.g. ETLA and Sitra Academy of Finland SCSTIs DM

21 Tekes strategy in a nutshell Growth and wellbeing from renewal Tekes funds leading edge research, development and innovation projects. For whom? Customers Why? Objectives What? Services Focus areas How? Means What will change? Challenges in the innovation environment Mission statement and values Business in global value networks Value creation based on service solutions and intangible assets Renewing services and production by digital means Intelligent environments Natural resources and sustainable economy Strategic research areas determined by the Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation Vitality of people Balanced portfolio of reactive and proactive funding programmes Priority to growth-seeking, innovative SME s Increased focus on forerunners and strategic innovations Customer success in global value networks Services and non-technical contents as important as industry and technologies Tekes will play a more essential role in the innovation services cooperation network A more customer-oriented and flexible approach

22 Focus areas Business in global value networks Value creation based on service solutions and intangible assets Natural resources and sustainable economy Renewing services and production by digital means Intelligent environments Vitality of people Strategic research areas determined by the Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation DM

23 Foresight work with Tekes committment Background: The Future is in knowledge and competence,technology strategy a review of choices, 2002 Building on Innovation Priorities for the Future, 2005 FinnSight 2015, 2006 NISTEP- Tekes -Foresight cooperation People, Environment, Economy Building blocks for the Future, 2008 National Innovation strategy, 2008 (MEE) International Evaluation of Finnish Innovation System, 2009 (MEE) Playing Fields of the Future Four Global Scenarios, 2009 (Business Forum Finland + Tekes) Tekes four scenarios, 2010 Research and Innovation Policy Guidelines for ( The Research and Innovation Council of Finland, 2011 Tekes strategy Growth and wellbeing from renewal, 2011 Government Foresight work, DM

24 Government foresight: the target of the project The target is to crystallize the insight of the government of Finland in 2030 and to define those actions to secure sustainable growth and well-being of citizens. The implementation of the policy is also promoted The foresight result can be widely utilized among different actors of the Finnish society in their strategy and policy work The project is a pilot for national foresight model to create a Finnish competitive advantage and an element for pioneering The approach is interactive and co-operative

25 The societal impact of the government foresight The healthy and wellbeing society People Responsible and productive economy Sustainable environment

26 Governmental foresight The model of sustainable growth The most efficient utilization of various background information and coordination of projects and reports P o l i c y Foresight themes Foresight work Global benchmark d e f i Nn i t i o n Governmental policy definition

27 Conclusions Finland as forerunner needs strong and advanced foresight work and strategic intelligence for fast decision making We need active constructive discussion on future alternative paths and multidiscipline discussion forums We need those who catalyze discussions and bring disruptive ideas challegers Foresight has crucial role in complexity management Systems architecture needs multidimensional foresight and understanding of interdependances We aim to make the future instead of reacting on issues that we face DM

28 Pioneership demands cooperation and good sources of information Our strength is wisdom of all and the foresight work We need a common vision and commitment towards future challenges DM