The Effect of Climate Change and Land Use on Biodiversity. Bruce C. Forbes Research Professor Arctic Centre University of Lapland Rovaniemi, Finland

Transcription

1 The Effect of Climate Change and Land Use on Biodiversity Bruce C. Forbes Research Professor Arctic Centre University of Lapland Rovaniemi, Finland

2 Finland Northern portions of the Barents Euro-Arctic Region and adjoining Northwest Siberia

3 In the last 5 years or so, numerous reports have offered assessments concerning the effects of climate change on biodiversity in Arctic and northern boreal regions Climate Change and its Consequences in the Arctic (2007) (Nordic countries) FINADAPT (2007) (Finland) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment or ACIA (2005) (Circumpolar) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC (2007) (Circumpolar)

4 (2007)

5 (2007) Virtually all syntheses, including the IPCC, have moved on from the question of climate drivers and attribution and the more socio-economically urgent questions of adaptation and mitigation. In 2007, the Nordic Council of Ministers published a summary with substantial emphasis on adaptation and mitigation.

6 Within the Barents Euro- Arctic Region, the individual Nordic countries and Russia have also issued national reports and summaries for policy makers. These treat the question of biodiversity at varying levels of detail and balance between synthesizing observations from monitoring and venturing projections for the coming decades.

7 Short summary from the FINADAPT report concerning biodiverstity FINADAPT (2007)

8 The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), summary published in November The general assessment with regard to terrestrial ecosystems was that the geographic area occupied by tundra will shrink, while the number of species arriving from the south will more than offset losses among arctic taxa so that net biodiversity will actually increase.

9 The case for Arctic shifting vegetation zones in ACIA is made in series of diagrams projecting change during the 21 st century. Note that the northward and upward expansion of forest is expected to cause a decrease in surface reflectivity.

10 Where soils are adequate, species richness will increase as relatively species-rich forest displaces tundra Narrow coastal strips of tundra (e.g., in the Russian European Arctic) will be completely displaced as forest reaches the Arctic Ocean Summer warming experiments have shown that shrub growth increased, as observed under natural climate warming, and that species diversity decreased initially Experimental warming and nutrient addition have shown that mosses and lichens became less abundant when vascular plants increased their growth Southern species constantly reach the Arctic but few become established Projections for 2100 regarding the replacement of tundra areas by forest range from 10% to 50% (2007)

11 Natural vegetation zones do not necessarily correspond to reality In the cases of both ACIA and IPCC, impacts of changing hydrology, active layer depth and land use (emphasis mine) were excluded from their models. These impacts can be large: for example, Tatiana Vlassova (2002) suggests that 475,000 km 2 of tree-line forest has already been destroyed in Russia, thereby creating tundra-like ecosystems. Impacts on Barents Region terrestrial biodiversity generally not accounted for in climate change models: Forestry, Oil & gas activities, Reindeer management, Tourism, Mining

12 Fennoscandian vegetation zones Northernmost Fennoscandia is characterized by a wide range of vegetation zones and physiographic regions. Particularly in the higher elevation regions near and beyond treeline spatial variability is high. Theoretically higher elevation tundra would disappear under a warming climate. (Oksanen & Virtanen 1995)

13 West Siberian vegetation zones Treeline In West Theoretically Siberia physiographic the northern variability tundra zones is low would and be vegetation displaced zones are quite under homogeneous a warming climate compared scenario to N Fennoscandia. as boreal forest In vegetation Nenets Okrug, just to the west zones of Urals, would topography advance is to only the North. slightly more varied.

14 But what is happening on the ground that might affect vegetation structure and function?

15 People have been living in these regions with reindeer for thousands of years. The tundra biome dates only from the Pleistocene, so vegetation has evolved with reindeer.

16 Locally, the impact of reindeer can be easily observed. The general effect is to reduce vegetation structure and diversity. However, on organic soils productivity can increase as graminoids replace shrubs and lichens. Both herders and reindeer exploit this because reindeer benefit from locally available high quality forage. On sandy soils, like on Yamal Peninsula, erosion can be a problem. Bare ground from trampling during corralling in the vicinity of migratory camp, Varandei tundra Gathering reindeer, Varandei tundra, Nenets Okrug Active sand dunes at staging area for crossing the Yuribei River, Yamal Peninsula Reindeer corral on organic soils, Yamal tundra.

17 To detect more regional impacts of reindeer we need to use satellite based platforms. Changes in albedo (surface reflectance) are clearly visible from space. The driver is not climate change, but there are potential feedbacks to atmospheric warming. Very high resolution satellite image, Norway/Finland border

18 Concerns about shifting patterns of surface reflectivity, or albedo, were laid out in the ACIA report, and reiterated by the IPCC. For terrestrial ecosystems, projections were based largely on models showing the northward expansion of the boreal forest, which is darker than tundra and absorbs more incoming radiation. ACIA (2005) However, there is another regionally important mechanism that is not mentioned nor modeled.

19 International borders between Finland and neighbouring Russia and Norway are clearly visible due to changes in albedo caused by differences in the cover of fruticose lichens. The result is that the potential for greater surface heating during the snow-free season is increased, but the mechanism involved is herbivory rather than climate change. Norway QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Finland Russia Finland

20 There is a steady loss of available space for practicing reindeer management in both Fennoscandia and Russia due to competition with other land users. In the Nordic countries these include forestry, hydropower and mining, and tourism, with some offshore oil development. The net effect is to increase grazing pressure on remaining pasture lands, in turn affecting vegetation diversity, cover and structure. Tourism Hydropower (and mining) Forestry (by far the greatest impact)

21 Fences show clearly the actual and potential effects of extensive and prolonged summer trampling on lichen rangelands. For herders, a more important issue than biodiversity per se is productivity of the various types of pasture in different seasons. The bottom line is that reindeer affect vegetation cover both locally and regionally. The changes we see now are not caused by climate, but may have feedbacks to climate. It is important not to ignore these processes when making future projections of ecosystems states. Fence near Vuontisjärvi, Finland Fence near Kautokeino, Norway

22 Oil & gas fields in the Barents Region and Yamal World class deposits onshore and offshore: most of them not yet tapped or in full production. Both have potential implications for biodiversity.

23 Primary Russian oil & gas pipelines supplying Europe The new Baltic Nord Stream gas pipeline will be supplied in large part with gas from the Yamal Peninsula, West Siberia. It is currently delayed pending permission from e.g. Finland

24 Reindeer herding management units (sovkhozi, etc.) of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug 400 km

25 In the East European Arctic, e.g. Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Lukoil is the dominant player. In the neighbouring Yamal-Nenets Okrug to the east, the dominant player is Gazprom. Development plans are coordinated with regional administrations, with regulations in place to mitigate against extensive negative environmental impacts. However, as we all know there is no such thing as no impact in industrial oil development. Drilling station in Varandei tundra Lukoil headquarters, Narjan-Mar

26 Among the negative effects can be direct impacts on the plant-soil cover over substantial areas. Sand and gravel quarries, for example, sometimes cover several hectares. Of course, there are some positive socio-economic impacts for herders but that is not the topic today. Abandoned sand quarry near Obskaya, southern Yamal

27 Railway construction on Yamal Peninsula Single passage of vezdekhod on Nenets tundra. Over time multi-pass tracks become significant. Steadily encroaching hazards from new infrastructure (roads, railways, pipelines, drill sites, quarries) result in direct/indirect biodiversity losses particularly on summer rangelands Drill rig and pipeline, Varandei tundra Difficult to revegetate fine-grained sands & loess, Yamal

28 Spring and summer air temperatures in NAO and YNAO have already warmed over the past 25 to 30 years by some 2 to 3 C. If this trend continues it has major implications for regional biodiversity, as outlined by ACIA and IPCC. However, there are also potential impacts on permafrost, the integrity of oil & gas infrastructure, and feedbacks to the atmosphere from the accelerated release of carbon and methane currently stored in frozen ground.

29 Truck traffic near Loborovaya, Yamal Peninsula There can also be indirect impacts on biodiversity, in additon to rapid transformation of the hydrological, chemical and nutrient regimes in otherwise intact vegetation. Here, alkaline dust affects moist acidic tundra (ph 4.0) along roads in Northwest Siberia. Road dust with ph 8.0 can travel hundreds of meters. The first study showing this was published from Alaska. However, I got similar results on Yamal in early 1990s. Roads also have the potential to improve access for poachers, who can further degrade biodiversity.

30 1 cm Independent confirmation of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Using applied dendroclimatology to detect trends in tundra shrub growth Profile of Salix lanata from Yamal tundra, YNAO Profile of Salix lanata from Varandei tundra, NAO

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32 a) Salix lanata ring width (solid line), and standardized width with the Regional Curve Standardization procedure (dashed line). Both chronologies are for the period Sample depth (number of individuals) is shown as a filled grey area. The chronology suggests a significant increase in Salix lanata growth for the period ; b) Summer season (defined as June to August average) temperature series for a coastal lowland (Marre Sale N, E, lower), an interior lowland (Naryan Mar N, E, middle) and an upland interior (Salekhard N, E, upper) meteorological stations close to the studied stand for the same period

33 Conclusions Climate is changing in the Barents Region and West Siberia, although warming seems greater in the Nenets and Yamal-Nenets Okrugs than in Fennoscandia Land use is neglected in the major models and syntheses of climate change (ACIA, IPCC, etc.) Forestry, reindeer management, and oil & gas activities result in some of the same impacts (reduced biodiversity) and feedbacks (surface reflectance) Reindeer herders are less concerned with changes in climate and biodiversity because they experience greater pressures from administrative institutions and oil & gas development An increase in willow shrub growth in NAO has been observed by herders and the recent warming is documented in Salix annual rings Mitigation and adaptation strategies need to carefully consider not only climate but also more immediate impacts to local livelihoods

34 Thank you!