A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis Markus K. Brunnermeier & Ricardo Reis

Transcription

1 A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis Markus K. Brunnermeier & Ricardo Reis

2 Overview Introduction of Euro Decline in sovereign spreads Capital inflows 1. To low TFP growth sectors Housing, non-tradable sector, not export sector 2. Via banks whole sale funding Crisis Macro-finance perspective Financial Instability: Amplification and multiple equilibria Liquidity spiral, deflationary spiral, (redenomination risk) ECB s Target 2 replacing private flows Game of chicken between ECB and 17 fiscal authorities strategic delay (war of attrition) Diabolic loop between fiscal and banking risk

3 Sovereign debt yield (10 year) Par %-Yield 25 Par %-Yield Spain 5 5 Germany 0 Jan 94 Jan 97 Jan 00 Jan 03 Jan 06 Jan 09 Source: Eurostat 0 3

4 Sovereign debt yield (10 year) Par %-Yield 25 Par %-Yield Italy Greece Spain 5 France Germany 0 Jan 94 Jan 97 Jan 00 Jan 03 Jan 06 Jan 09 Source: Eurostat 5 0 4

5 Inconsistency Reasons Elimination of exchange rate and inflation risk + Basel: zero risk weight ECB common haircut rule Sovereign debt should be risky Maastricht Treaty: No bailout clause No ECB bond purchases Interest difference should act as disciplinary force

6 Accumulated Net Capital Inflows Billion Spain Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Eurostat Germany 6

7 Accumulated Net Capital Inflows Billion Spain Greece Italy France Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Eurostat Germany 7

8 Inflows into low TFP growth sectors REAL GDP = Labor 3,1% Euro-nomics.com 2,2% 3,6% + Capital + TFP 0,9% 1,5% 1,2% 0,6% 1,2% 0,4% 2,3% 1,9% -0,7% 1 Para EU-15 los datos son del período y sólo incluye países para los que el efecto multifactorial puede ser calculado: AUT, BEL, DNK, ESP, FIN, FRA, GER, ITA, NLD & UK FUENTE: EU KLEMS

9 Funding via banks Large fraction of funding Large relative to GDP Euro area United States

10 Cross-border assets & liabilities of Euro area banks

11 Traditional vs. modern banks A Government bonds Loans mortgages Traded assets Deposits Equity L A Government bonds Loans Tradable assets Loans/mortgages are securitized and made tradable Whole sale funding Deposits Equity Whole sale funding Interbank market (foreign) Money market funds (also from US) L

12 Traditional vs. modern banks A Government bonds Loans mortgages Traded assets Deposits Equity Bank run a la Diamond-Dybvig but inertia also due to demand deposit insurance L A Government bonds Loans Tradable assets Whole sale funding liq. risk like in Brunnermeier-Pedersen Short-term No inertia Collateralized Whole sale funding Deposits Equity Fire-sales of tradable assets Risk shifting towards depositors (insurance) L Essentially senior

13 Elevator Dishwasher Payment for Elevator/Dishwasher Interbank Market Spanish Homeowner Builder Loan LIBOR + x% increases Spanish Bank Deposits (short-term) Spanish Saver German firm Thyssen-Krupp Bosch/Miele German FinInst - MMF - Bank Bank of TK,Bosch Deposits (short-term) wage German Saver 13

14 Run-up in liquidity mismatch i s best response shock General mechanism others average actions

15 Run-up in liquidity mismatch i s best response shock General mechanism others average actions

16 Shock after the run-up i s best response shock General mechanism shock others average actions

17 2 nd, 3 rd round effects: Amplification i s best response shock General mechanism amplification shock others average actions

18 2 nd, 3 rd round effects: Amplification Multiplicity i s best response shock General mechanism multiplicity jump amplification shock others average actions

19 Spirals & capital stops Liquidity spiral and fire-sales Loss spiral Margin/haircut/LTV spiral Deflationary spiral Redenomination spiral Along whole intermediation chain Including real sector (housing etc.)

20 1. Shock Impairs Assets 1 st of 4 Steps Government Credit Banks Outside money Inside money Equity

21 2. Shrink Balance Sheet: Sell off of Assets Government Banks Outside money Credit In-money Equity 21

22 3. Liquidity Spiral: Sell off of Assets Government Banks Outside money Credit In-money Equity 22

23 4. Deflation Spiral: Value of Liabilities Government Banks Outside money Credit money Equity See I Theory of Money

24 Elevator Dishwasher Payment for Elevator/Dishwasher Interbank market Lending (short-term) Interbank Market Spanish Homeowner Builder Loan LIBOR + x% increases Spanish Bank Deposits (short-term) Spanish Saver Losses accumulate German firm Thyssen-Krupp Bosch/Miele German FinInst - MMF - Bank Bank of TK,Bosch Fire-sale of Elevator/dishwasher Deposits (short-term) wage German Saver 24

25 Elevator Dishwasher Payment for Elevator/Dishwasher Interbank market Lending (short-term) ECB assumes Tail Risk Spanish Homeowner Builder Loan LIBOR + x% stabilized Spanish Bank risky Deposits (short-term) Spanish Saver ECB German firm Thyssen-Krupp Bosch/Miele German FinInst - MMF - Bank Bank of TK,Bosch Fire-sale of Elevator/dishwasher Deposits (short-term) wage German Saver 25

26 Target 2 claims & liabilities Germany Spain GIIPS GIIPSSBF

27 Elevator Dishwasher Payment for Elevator/Dishwasher Interbank market Lending (short-term) Adding Convertibility Risk Spanish Homeowner Builder Loan LIBOR + x% stabilized Spanish Bank risky Deposits (short-term) Spanish Saver ECB German firm Thyssen-Krupp Bosch/Miele German FinInst - MMF - Bank Bank of TK,Bosch Fire-sale of Elevator/dishwasher Deposits (short-term) wage German Saver 27

28 Liquidity vs. Solvency Pure Liquidity problem ECB intervention does not lead to losses Just ensures that we remain in good equilibrium Possible solvency problem Who absorbs the losses? Undoes initial shock to avoid amplification Initial shock size = loss to be absorbed multiplicity amplification Game of chicken

29 2 nd, 3 rd round effects: Amplification Multiplicity i s best response shock General mechanism multiplicity jump amplification shock others average actions

30 Game of Chicken Game between central bank Central bank: assume losses and inflate way out Fiscal authorities (17): assume losses and raise taxes Game among governments Answer: clear rules to assign losses! No discretion (flexibility is bad) 30

31 Diabolic Loop

32 Changes in Sovereign & Banking CDS Sources: Capital IQ, Markit Group Limited, Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations. (a) The change is measured from 22 November 2010 to 22 November (b) The other countries included, in addition to those labelled on the chart, are Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. (c) Banking sector CDS premia are asset-weighted. (d) Five-year senior CDS premia 32

33 Overview Losses in the system Postponing the day of reckoning increasing losses What s a timing game? Single player decision (when to live up to losses) Multiple player game Rules vs. Discretion (Commitment vs. Flexibility) German vs. French economic traditions Federal vs. centralized system 33

34 Losses are Realized by Nature Inaction Day of reckoning (loss realization) with prob. π in t Expected losses for L = πl + 1 π πl(1 + g) + 1 π 2 πl 1 + g 2 + L = π L t L t (1 + g) π Lt 1 + g 2 πl 1 1 π (1 + g) > L π Recall: sum of geometric raw a + aq + aq 2 + aq 3 + = a 1 q 34

35 Single Decision Maker Can move realization (day of reckoning) forward π probability that losses are realized automatically p t extra probability triggered by decision maker Total probability π + 1 π p t =: P t Expected losses Same formula, if all p t = p, simply replace π with P Set p t = 1, assume losses right P away, then L = L L = L L 1 1 P (1 + g) 35

36 Two Decision Makers War of Attrition Two players decide when to exit Payoff - Timing Game Assume losses first at t chicken full loss L t Assume losses together at t half loss L t /2 Assume losses last no loss 0 James Dean game of chicken notice the difference 36

37 Two Decision Makers War of Attrition Two players decide when to exit Payoff - Timing Game Assume losses first at t chicken full loss L t Assume losses together at t half loss L t /2 Assume losses last no loss 0 James Dean game of chicken notice the difference Timing Games: An overview Losses shrink Losses grow First mover advantage Preemption game Last mover advantage War of attrition Dynamic all-pay auction: Dutch auction English auction 37

38 Two Decision Makers War of Attrition Strategies Expected Losses Deviation/Best Response Both assume loss at t = 0 L/2 L/2 Wait one round more Both assume loss at any t Losses/2 grow* Wait one round more Both wait forever L/2 L/2 Much more expensive! * πl/2 τ t 1 π 1 + g τ Optimal timing If it doesn t work for any time t (including t = ) Randomize Assume losses in each period with a certain probability p t Given that opponents uses probability q t p t L t L t (1 + g) Lt 1 + g 2 p t+1 p t+2 Provided that Natures does stop process Opponent doesn t assume loss 38

39 Expected Losses at t L t = p t L t 1 q t / p t {q t 0 + (1 q t )[πl t 1 + g + 1 π L t+1 ]} Linear in p t Expected immediate loss Expected future loss 39

40 Expected Losses at t L t = p t L t 1 q t / p t {q t 0 + (1 q t )[πl t 1 + g + 1 π L t+1 ]} Linear in p t Expected immediate loss Expected future loss Immediate loss vs. expected future losses Best Response threshold If L t 1 q t /2 < q t > q t Wait p t = 0 threshold If L t 1 q t /2 = q t = q t any prob. p t [0,1] threshold If L t 1 q t /2 > q t < q t Exit p t = 1 1 p t q t

41 Expected Losses at t L t = p t L t 1 q t / p t {q t 0 + (1 q t )[πl t 1 + g + 1 π L t+1 ]} Linear in p t Expected immediate loss Expected future loss Immediate loss vs. expected future losses Best Response threshold If L t 1 q t /2 < q t > q t Wait p t = 0 threshold If L t 1 q t /2 = q t = q t any prob. p t [0,1] threshold If L t 1 q t /2 > q t < q t Exit p t = 1 1 p t q t threshold depends on future L t q t

42 Stationary setting a déjà vu world L t = p t L t 1 q t / p t {q t 0 + (1 q t )[πl t 1 + g + 1 π L t+1 ]} L t+1 = (1 + g)l t if p t = p and q t = q stay the same over time 42

43 Stationary setting a déjà vu world L t = p t L t 1 q t / p t {q t 0 + (1 q t )[πl t 1 + g + 1 π L t+1 ]} L t+1 = (1 + g)l t if p t = p and q t = q stay the same over time Yields L t = = p 1 q/2 + 1 p 1 q π 1 + g 1 (1 p)(1 q)(1 π)(1 + g) expected loss in next round 1 expected growth rate of losses L t L t 43

44 Opponent Faces Same Problem Nash equilibrium where best responses cross 1 p t 0 1 q t L t 1 q/2 = (1 q)[πl t 1 + g + 1 π L t+1 L t 1 p/2 = (1 p)[πl t 1 + g + 1 π L t+1 2 equations, 2 unknowns q, p 44

45 Commitment to be crazy winning strategy Opponent commits to move later (no matter what the cost) q t = 0 t Best response p 1 = 1 assume losses right away 1 p t 0 1 q t Example burn ship (Hernan Cortes when conquering Mexico) Stackelberg leader 45

46 Today s Europe Game between central bank Central bank: assume losses and inflate way out Fiscal authorities (17): assume losses and raise taxes Game among governments Answer: clear rules to assign losses! No discretion (flexibility is bad) 46

47 Overview Losses in the system Internal governance Postponing the day of reckoning increasing losses What s a timing game? Single player decision (when to live up to losses) Multiple player game Rules vs. Discretion (Commitment vs. Flexibility) German vs. French economic traditions Federal vs. centralized system 47

48 Rules vs. Discretion Discretion Delay in assuming losses Rules Can t be fine-tuned enough Extended model Extra loss of κl t for one party - other party still L t Ex-ante (when rule is set up) not clear which party suffers extra loss Rule is coarse (independent of extra loss) 48

49 Rules vs. Discretion Extended model: Extra loss κl t for one party - other party still L t Discretion: After it is known, analysis is similar to before except party with extra loss is more reluctant to assume loss (lower p). other party becomes more willing extra loss provides commitment and is a blessing Overall expected delay goes down due to extra loss Aside: if κ other party assumes loses right away Rule: If losses are split, then no delay but total loss: 1 2 L Tradeoff: for large enough κ discretion is better 1 + κ L 49

50 Federation vs. Centralized State Federation Rule based system avoids many inefficient delays Centralized state Discretion allows fine-tuned ex-post intervention Single centralized player does not delay 50

51 Different Economic Traditions German Federation Absolutism/Centralis m French Absolutism/Centralism Holy Roman Empire A.D. King Luis XIV, XV, XVI , , A.D. 51

52 Conclusion Introduction of Euro Decline in sovereign spreads Capital inflows 1. To low TFP growth sectors Housing, non-tradable sector, not export sector 2. Via banks whole sale funding Crisis Macro-finance perspective Financial Instability: Amplification and multiple equilibria Liquidity spiral, deflationary spiral, (redenomination risk) ECB s Target 2 replacing private flows Game of chicken between ECB and 17 fiscal authorities strategic delay (war of attrition) Diabolic loop between fiscal and banking risk